Ryan Jeffers Report Gives Twins Another Trade Deadline Dilemma

[Cody Christie]

The Minnesota Twins have made it clear they aren't sitting still at the trade deadline. Beginning with a July 10 trade for Tommy Nance, the club has added three pitchers over the last three weeks, acquiring Tommy Nance, A.J. Minter, and Dean Kremer in an effort to strengthen a roster that has climbed back into the American League Wild Card race. 

Yet even after those additions, Minnesota is reportedly still searching for another late-inning, right-handed reliever before Monday's deadline. That aggressive approach creates an uncomfortable question: Could the Twins still move one of their best hitters?

Ryan Jeffers remains one of the more intriguing names to watch over the final hours before the deadline. While trading an everyday catcher in the middle of a playoff push feels counterintuitive, a new report from The Athletic highlights why Minnesota's front office may still have to listen.

According to Dan Hayes of The Athletic:

"If a bidding war began, the Twins would receive more compensation by trading Jeffers than by offering him a qualifying offer ahead of free agency. However, by making him a qualifying offer, one team source close to Jeffers said the catcher would reject, the Twins would at least receive a compensatory draft pick when he departs via free agency."

The key takeaway isn't simply that Jeffers is expected to reject a qualifying offer—it's that the Twins now have a clearer picture of his future. If the organization already believes he'll be playing elsewhere in 2027, the decision becomes whether a compensatory draft pick is enough return for one of the league's better offensive catchers, or if another club is willing to offer considerably more right now.

Jeffers certainly isn't hurting his value. He's hitting .293/.396/.539 with 10 home runs and 36 RBIs in 198 plate appearances. Since returning from the injured list last month, he's posted a .893 OPS while collecting five extra-base hits and 10 RBIs in just 50 plate appearances.

Those numbers would make him attractive in any market. This year, they may make him the premier catcher available. Normally, rental players don't command massive returns, and rental catchers have historically brought back even less. The circumstances this season, however, are different. Catching help is scarce, and contenders such as the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, and Los Angeles Dodgers all have reason to explore upgrades behind the plate.

If multiple clubs decide Jeffers is the missing piece, the Twins could find themselves in the middle of the type of bidding war Hayes referenced. Of course, that doesn't make the decision any easier.

A team chasing the postseason rarely chooses to subtract from one of its biggest strengths. Jeffers has been one of Minnesota's most productive hitters when healthy, and removing him from the lineup would leave a noticeable void during the season's most important stretch. Even if the return improves the organization's long-term outlook, it would be a difficult pill to swallow for a clubhouse trying to end a postseason drought.

The Twins don't have to trade him. If they hold onto Jeffers through the remainder of the season, they could still extend a qualifying offer and potentially receive a compensatory draft pick after he signs elsewhere. But if Minnesota truly believes Jeffers is headed for free agency regardless, and another club is willing to pay a premium because of a thin catching market, the calculus changes.

The Twins have spent the last three weeks buying, adding pieces to strengthen a playoff contender. Trading Jeffers would send a far different message, but it wouldn't necessarily signal surrender. Instead, it would reflect a front office attempting to maximize an asset whose long-term future appears increasingly clear.

Whether Minnesota ultimately keeps its middle-of-the-order catcher or cashes in on his value, the report that Jeffers is expected to reject a qualifying offer has added another fascinating layer to one of the organization's toughest trade deadline decisions.

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[tarheeltwinsfan]

This situation does nothing to change the decision to keep Jeffers for me. Granted the Twins may get a better deal by trading Jeffers, than by keeping him and getting a QO draft pick. But this misses the whole point of keeping Jeffers. This season is not over.  Today the Twins are tied for the 3rd wild card. The division championship is well within reach. The Fat Lady has not sung. The Twins will need Jeffers' right handed ,middle of the order bat even more, now that Buck is questionable. The Twins will need Jeffers leadership and even temperament even more during high pressure games.   Without Buck, Jeffers is the heart and soul of the Twins position players and also a respected leader  and pitch caller among the pitching staff.  The future is now. Trading Jeffers now would have a devastating effect on this team. Don't do it. This team has earned the right to keep its leader.

[strumdatjag]

The Twins won without Jeffers.   They need to trade him (3 team trade with a contender and a seller) for a pitcher for now and a prospect for later.    Let a contending team overpay in the likely bidding war.  
Trade Larnach (or whatever) for a right-handed bat.    The net result is a team that is a little worse on the hitting side but better on the pitching side - and more. 

[howeda7]

As bad as the offense has been, I no longer think you can say you're going for it AND trade Jeffers. Keep him. Take the pick. Trade that player as part of your 2028 World Series push. 

[Dman]

Like most things it depends on what they would get back.  Though it seems they have already decided on one reliever and starting pitcher.  So not sure what Jeffers could bring back that would help the current teams run.

There is also a limit teams will pay for a rental so not sure there would be enough there for the Twins to bite or not.  No question Jeffers deepens the lineup and it looks like the Twins are going for it as they solidify the pen.  So I doubt they trade him, but we'll see if the returns are just too tempting or not.

[miller761]

With Buxton out we need Jeffers bat in the lineup or else we risk a drop in run scoring. Unless the Twins are wowed with an offer of an MLB bat they need to keep him for this year. 

[dxpavelka]

So the worse possible outcome is the he might ACCEPT a qualifying offer.  I can live with that.

[LA Vikes Fan]

I actually think it’s makes the decision on Jeffers easier, assuming the report is correct. We no longer have to worry about him accepting the qualifying offer and having a $23 million catcher. Now you can evaluate the trade package offered against the advantages of keeping him here through the rest of 2026 and getting the compensatory draft choice, probably after the end of the first round. in other words, we no longer run the risk of keeping him, being afraid to make the QO for fear of having an overpaid catcher, and then “losing him for nothing“.

I think it’s going to take a very serious package to pry Jeffers from the Twins. It would have to include at least a middle of the rotation starting pitcher and probably a decent bat or relief pitcher for Jeffers and a prospect. In other words, two major league players I think that’s not real likely.

[clone52]

If you can trade for Jeffers and replace him, it might be fun.  But you would have to pay a LOT for a guys like Goodman.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I think bringing up both Jenkins and Culpepper should help the offense too. But really, if they do need to trade Jeffers, they also truly have to find another bat that can help with his middle of the order production. MAYBE Lewis can find his footing but I don't know that I would expect it. So I don't think they would need to trade for Goodman. If they can find a different 1b/3b/DH type option that truly can be a #3 type hitter, then go for it.

[weitz41]

7 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I actually think it’s makes the decision on Jeffers easier, assuming the report is correct. We no longer have to worry about him accepting the qualifying offer and having a $23 million catcher. Now you can evaluate the trade package offered against the advantages of keeping him here through the rest of 2026 and getting the compensatory draft choice, probably after the end of the first round. in other words, we no longer run the risk of keeping him, being afraid to make the QO for fear of having an overpaid catcher, and then “losing him for nothing“.

I think it’s going to take a very serious package to pry Jeffers from the Twins. It would have to include at least a middle of the rotation starting pitcher and probably a decent bat or relief pitcher for Jeffers and a prospect. In other words, two major league players I think that’s not real likely.

I agree, if true this makes it much easier for the Twins to pick a lane. I've posted a few trades on BTV involving Jeffers. But assuming no way he accepts that comp pick designation.  Adding a comp pick to his trade value makes him close to double in trade value. Hypothetically...That'd make Jeffers and say Reyes (traded for Kremer) a close to even swap for Warren. 

To get back to reality though...Loosing Jeffers without Buxton...Will likely be more lost offense than this team can afford to lose... Glad I don't have to take the heat on this one.

I'm trade him! wait no, keep him!...wait...

[Coach]

Would you turn down 23 million dollars just to do what you're doing now?  If Jeffers accepts it, he's not worth it.  If we can't extend him, that's not on his agent, that is on him. Either he's with us, or against us.  Let the chips fall where they may.  I personally would love for him to be a stand-up teammate and accept a nice extension to stay with the organization.  Just how much money does someone need to be happy?

[tony&rodney]

7 minutes ago, Coach said:

Would you turn down 23 million dollars just to do what you're doing now?  If Jeffers accepts it, he's not worth it.  If we can't extend him, that's not on his agent, that is on him. Either he's with us, or against us.  Let the chips fall where they may.  I personally would love for him to be a stand-up teammate and accept a nice extension to stay with the organization.  Just how much money does someone need to be happy?

You can't be serious.

[90stwinskid]

I'll say it again: you don't say you're buying (and therefore contending) only to go out and trade your 2nd best hitter. 

I'm team "Keep Jeffers" all the way.

[90stwinskid]

6 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

You can't be serious.

Ditto.

Side note: If he somehow, some way, accepts the QO, that's a great outcome for the Twins as well, in my view. You get a solidly above-average catcher on a one year deal for slightly above projected value, without assuming future risk (or blocking future catching prospects).

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, weitz41 said:

I agree, if true this makes it much easier for the Twins to pick a lane. I've posted a few trades on BTV involving Jeffers. But assuming no way he accepts that comp pick designation.  Adding a comp pick to his trade value makes him close to double in trade value. Hypothetically...That'd make Jeffers and say Reyes (traded for Kremer) a close to even swap for Warren. 

To get back to reality though...Loosing Jeffers without Buxton...Will likely be more lost offense than this team can afford to lose... Glad I don't have to take the heat on this one.

I'm trade him! wait no, keep him!...wait...

You can't QO him if you trade for him, so it does not increase his value to a new team. 

[weitz41]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

You can't QO him if you trade for him, so it does not increase his value to a new team. 

True, but it makes it, so the offer has to be greater than a comp pick to the Twins. So, what I'm saying is you have to offer value equal to a comp pick and more to make it worthwhile... To use BTV as an example. Jeffers is worth (let's say) 10 points in trade value which means to me I want a minimum of 15 back or more. If they can't meet that cost, I'd rather keep him because he adds more to this year's chances and do the QO assuming it still exists. 

[Coach]

Jeffers for 23M if he accepts the QA.  Please justify.

[DJL44]

If Jeffers already said to the Twins that he would reject the qualifying offer, he is doing them a HUGE favor. 

[alexlegge]

1 hour ago, Coach said:

Jeffers for 23M if he accepts the QA.  Please justify.

Fangraphs has an excellent primer on the dollar value per WAR among free agents. Let's rely on this model since it's basically the only one available. Let's also assume that Jeffers will be worth at least 2 WAR next year (this is a reasonable assumption; from 2023-2026 he has averaged 2.2 WAR, a number likely to increase during the next two months). Assuming that production and utilizing the Fangraphs value model, he'll be worth at least $25.7M next season - that dollar amount would mean zero inflation whatsoever and Jeffers adding exactly 2.0 WAR. Moreover, the beauty of the qualifying offer is that it's only for one year.

Basically, $23M is bit lower than what he's likely to get offered as annual value in a longer free agent deal. So it's highly unlikely he'd want to accept it, and a very reasonable, low-risk investment for the Twins even if he does. It certainly shouldn't be the kind of thing that dissuades them from holding onto him at the trade deadline on Monday...but it might.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, alexlegge said:

Fangraphs has an excellent primer on the dollar value per WAR among free agents. Let's rely on this model since it's basically the only one available. Let's also assume that Jeffers will be worth at least 2 WAR next year (this is a reasonable assumption; from 2023-2026 he has averaged 2.2 WAR, a number likely to increase during the next two months). Assuming that production and utilizing the Fangraphs value model, he'll be worth at least $25.7M next season - that dollar amount would mean zero inflation whatsoever and Jeffers adding exactly 2.0 WAR. Moreover, the beauty of the qualifying offer is that it's only for one year.

Basically, $23M is bit lower than what he's likely to get offered as annual value in a longer free agent deal. So it's highly unlikely he'd want to accept it, and a very reasonable, low-risk investment for the Twins even if he does. It certainly shouldn't be the kind of thing that dissuades them from holding onto him at the trade deadline on Monday...but it might.

One catcher makes close to 23 million a year. He'll be getting 12-15 per year. Pending CBA changes, of course. 

[laloesch]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

If Jeffers already said to the Twins that he would reject the qualifying offer, he is doing them a HUGE favor. 

Yes exactly. If it’s true, he’s basically telling them HE GONE! at the end of the season.  You HAVE to trade him if a decent offer comes along. This team is going nowhere in the playoffs if they sneak in. GET THE prospects, preferably starting pitching, end of story.  This clinging to him till the last second is utter foolishness. A compensation pick is a lottery ticket at best.  At least. If they trade for one or two prospects already working there way up in an organization there’s a record of progress.

[alexlegge]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

One catcher makes close to 23 million a year. He'll be getting 12-15 per year. Pending CBA changes, of course. 

How many free agent catchers of Jeffers caliber have hit the market recently? My calculation here is by the books. It's likely that he'd end up making at or near the most of any catcher in the game assuming he hits free agency. This values increase over time.

[Dman]

23 minutes ago, alexlegge said:

Fangraphs has an excellent primer on the dollar value per WAR among free agents. Let's rely on this model since it's basically the only one available. Let's also assume that Jeffers will be worth at least 2 WAR next year (this is a reasonable assumption; from 2023-2026 he has averaged 2.2 WAR, a number likely to increase during the next two months). Assuming that production and utilizing the Fangraphs value model, he'll be worth at least $25.7M next season - that dollar amount would mean zero inflation whatsoever and Jeffers adding exactly 2.0 WAR. Moreover, the beauty of the qualifying offer is that it's only for one year.

Basically, $23M is bit lower than what he's likely to get offered as annual value in a longer free agent deal. So it's highly unlikely he'd want to accept it, and a very reasonable, low-risk investment for the Twins even if he does. It certainly shouldn't be the kind of thing that dissuades them from holding onto him at the trade deadline on Monday...but it might.

If he keeps the .900 OPS I could see him getting around 20M per year.  Keep in mind Jeffers is not a great defensive catcher.  .900 OPS right handed bats seem at unicorn levels these days so his value as a catcher, 1st baseman or DH could be close to 20M per.  He'll need to keep it up though. 

If he falls to say the low .800's so does his monetary value IMO as his worth is tied more to his bat than defense. Durability behind the plate remains a question as well as I don't believe he has ever played a full season behind the plate as the primary catcher.  He has when platooned 50/50.

25M seems high to me given he has only had one .800 OPS season and we'll see where this one goes.  Usually guys that get those high dollar value amounts have a proven track record.  Still some team could be a believer.  You never know.

[alexlegge]

1 minute ago, Dman said:

If he keeps the .900 OPS I could see him getting around 20M per year.  Keep in mind Jeffers is not a great defensive catcher.  .900 OPS right handed bats seem at unicorn levels these days so his value as a catcher, 1st baseman or DH could be close to 20M per.  He'll need to keep it up though. 

If he falls to say the low .800's so does his monetary value IMO as his worth is tied more to his bat than defense. Durability behind the plate remains a question as well as I don't believe he has ever played a full season behind the plate as the primary catcher.  He has when platooned 50/50.

25M seems high to me given he has only had one .800 OPS season and we'll see where this one goes.  Usually guys that get those high dollar value amounts have a proven track record.  Still some team could be a believer.  You never know.

The $25M might also be a high estimate given catchers' tendency to have shortened careers and injury accumulation. I imagine that brings down their free agent value a bit. But not a crazy amount. Seeing him land an AAV in the 15-20 range wouldn't shock me, especially if a team signs him for 4+ years. Definitely hard to predict though. I don't recall any big-name catchers hitting the market recently, so Jeffers will actually be a pretty interesting test case assuming he does. 

[jorgenswest]

Any offer has to clearly exceed the value of his two months with team engaged in a playoff chase plus that of a comp pick. If the Twins get a deal they need to take it. My bar would be an FV50 plus an under age 20 lottery ticket in low A.

The Twins shouldn’t be buyers or sellers. They should be opportunists. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

I’ve been very consistent of this. If we keep Jeffers which looks likely, we will offer the QO and Jeffers will turn it down. 1st there will be lots of money available to players with the new bargaining agreement. 2 The free agent class is weak. 3. Jeffers and his team have made it clear they want a long term deal.  4-5 years in the 70-80 million range is my guess. So if he is traded it better be for a haul.   A 1st round draft pick has value and is a great spot to take high upside high school pitching.  We really are in a good spot with Jeffers. Worst case is we pay him $23 million for a 1 year contract. That’s not a bad outcome.  

[dxpavelka]

9 hours ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I actually think it’s makes the decision on Jeffers easier, assuming the report is correct. We no longer have to worry about him accepting the qualifying offer and having a $23 million catcher. Now you can evaluate the trade package offered against the advantages of keeping him here through the rest of 2026 and getting the compensatory draft choice, probably after the end of the first round. in other words, we no longer run the risk of keeping him, being afraid to make the QO for fear of having an overpaid catcher, and then “losing him for nothing“.

I think it’s going to take a very serious package to pry Jeffers from the Twins. It would have to include at least a middle of the rotation starting pitcher and probably a decent bat or relief pitcher for Jeffers and a prospect. In other words, two major league players I think that’s not real likely.

The highest paid catcher in the big leagues is making $17.5 million.  Three are making more than $12.5 million.  But you think JEFFERS is gonna make $23 million?  IF that's the case the offers for him had better start at any organization's best pitching prospect, best hitting prospect and another of their top four prospects, all of whom had better be among the top 50 prospects in the game.

[SteveLV]

How about just SIGNING him to an extension.  There is still time to get it done if you hustle.  He likes the Twins. Pay the man, He deserves it.

[AlwaysinModeration]

21 hours ago, alexlegge said:

Fangraphs has an excellent primer on the dollar value per WAR among free agents. Let's rely on this model since it's basically the only one available. Let's also assume that Jeffers will be worth at least 2 WAR next year (this is a reasonable assumption; from 2023-2026 he has averaged 2.2 WAR, a number likely to increase during the next two months). Assuming that production and utilizing the Fangraphs value model, he'll be worth at least $25.7M next season - that dollar amount would mean zero inflation whatsoever and Jeffers adding exactly 2.0 WAR. Moreover, the beauty of the qualifying offer is that it's only for one year.

Basically, $23M is bit lower than what he's likely to get offered as annual value in a longer free agent deal. So it's highly unlikely he'd want to accept it, and a very reasonable, low-risk investment for the Twins even if he does. It certainly shouldn't be the kind of thing that dissuades them from holding onto him at the trade deadline on Monday...but it might.

Thanks for posting that Fangraphs piece. It’s been several years since I looked at the cost of free agents per WAR and this piece adds a lot of nuance.

The piece notes that there is a big jump in price for 2+ WAR players as compared to 1-2WAR players. Jeffers is borderline between those areas.  He’s definitely not a 3-5 WAR player commanding the high end of the scale.  I’d suggest he’d get less than the 2+WAR group (which was $12.86) and more than the 1-2WAR group (which was $8.5).  Let’s split it and say $11mm/ WAR.

Now, how many WAR is he projected to get over a 4 (or 5) year contract?  You say he’ll be projected/ paid for 2WAR in 27, which is reasonable given his 23-26 track record. In 2028, he will be projected at 1.6WAR or 1.5WAR, depending on the discount factor (the article uses 0.4WAR decline per year, but Tango and Smith have typically used 0.5WAR decline per year).  In 2029, his projection goes down to 1.2 or 1.0, and finally, in 2030, he is projected for either 0.8 or 0.5WAR.  

So, the calculations for his free agent contract broken out like this:

2+1.6+1.2+0.8 =5.6, at $11mm/WAR = 4years. $62mm, or $15.5mm/year

Or, using the steeper decline model, which might make sense (especially for a catcher):

2+1.5+1+0.5 =5 at $11mm= 4years, $55mm, or $13.7mm/ year.

So Jeffers as a free agent this off season could be looking at a contract in the 4 years, $55-60mm range.

(Note that the fifth year projection is 0-0.4 war, or $0-$4.4mm tacked on. If a team is willing to tack on a fifth year in order to land him, they are paying for basically no projected value.)

As for next year, at $11mm/WAR, his projected value in 2027 is roughly $22mm.  Twins could expect to get roughly even value if they offer him a QO and he accepts.
 

However, Jefferson would be right to reject the $23mm QO offer, because he will get a contract worth $30-$40mm more than the QO offer.