The 2026 PECOTA Projections, or: Why We Keep Calling the AL Central "Winnable"

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

Baseball Prospectus released its full PECOTA projections for 2026 Tuesday morning, including projected standings and playoff odds. The Twins are, unsurprisingly, forecasted to be a mediocre team, with 79 projected wins, good for third place in the AL Central. The Guardians, who had an even more maddening winter than did the local nine, come in fourth in PECOTA's pecking order, with 75.8 wins. The Tigers are ahead of Minnesota, at 83.9 wins, and gallingly, the Royals are projected to win the division with just 84.4 victories.

Kansas City's division-leading win total is 4.1 wins lower than that of the second-lowest division winner on the projected standings page. Every other division in the league has at least one team with a good chance to win 90 games; most of them have two. The AL Central, however, has shown no ambition, and is rewarded with tepid forecasts. Despite a projection that marks them as solidly below average, the Twins have a 12.7% chance to win the division and a 22.3% shot to make the playoffs, according to PECOTA.

These are the just desserts of a team that chose not to tear things down this winter, but also opted not to make significant investments in winning more games in 2026. As you would guess, the system likes the core of this team just fine. It expects All-Star-caliber seasons from Joe Ryan and Pablo López. It's high on Luke Keaschall's bat. However, the only team in baseball with a worse projected Deserved Runs Prevented (DRP), Prospectus's flagship fielding metric, is the Angels. They have an average projected offense and a slightly above-average projected pitching staff. If they had even a neutral defense, they would be neck-and-neck with the Royals and Tigers. Defense isn't even an expensive skill to acquire. Yet, the team has left themselves worst in the league in this crucial facet.

Part of the projection is PECOTA (and DRP itself) disliking Byron Buxton's defense in center field, as he ages. Buxton's DRP was -4.7 in 2024 and -7.4 in 2025. PECOTA foresees a further decline, at age 32, to -9.4, making Buxton almost half the defensive problem for a team projected to lose roughly 19 runs to poor fielding.

That's hard for many Twins fans to accept, with good reason. Buxton has been a defensive hero throughout his career. Early on, when he was extremely inconsistent at the plate, his glove propped up his profile and made him a star. Even now, he makes semi-frequent highlight-reel plays. However, Buxton has always been inclined to freeze when the ball leaves the bat, then take off with his elite speed and make up whatever ground he lost by not getting a great jump. As he's aged, that has become harder, and his success rate has sagged. He still posts elite sprint speeds, as measured by Statcast, but most of those come on the bases, where he knows Point A and Point B and can accelerate smoothly. On fly balls, he's lost a step, and it's showed up in a big way at times over the last two years.

Buxton being part of the problem highlights the challenge the team faced this winter. They have some young players to whom they're committed, but who have shown little sign that they're ready to be pluses as everyday big-leaguers. Starting Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis on the left side of the infield means giving up some defense for the hope of their bats coming together, but each struggled at the plate last year. Some of the places where one would most like to see the team make a defensive upgrade would come at prohibitive costs in terms of offensive production.

Still, the latest projections highlight the extent to which Minnesota was in position to push for an AL Central title in 2026, and the way they appear to have let that opportunity pass them by. The offseason isn't over, but the Twins don't look like a smart bet to make up the five-game gap between themselves and the Royals by the time it is.

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[hlsballer318]

The AL central is well within grasp as long as our pitchers can throw 15+ strikeouts a game.

[OregonTwinsFan]

No sugar coating it...this year is not looking good for our beloved Twins. Wouldn't be surprised if they finish last in the division. Hope I am wrong.

[mikelink45]

This was fascinating because my brain said CF was the only defensive position where we were above average - back to the calculator. 

I would have the Tigers winning and quite a bit more successful with their pitching staff.  Sorry to say Ryan and Lopez are good, but not Skubal and Valez good and ack Flaherty and Casey Mize are also above average.  We offer SWR and questions.

A poor defense, a poor BP, and only 60% of a dependable rotation paired with an offense that  finished 23rd in run production and I am not sure I am confident that we can stay above the Guardians who always exceed expectations. 

KC is the one I really disagree with. 

[gman]

I'd say the Twins are halfway between first and last. Actually if they came away with 80 wins this year, that'd be a lot better than I thought. If they at least come away from the year with some real player development at the big league level, then I'd be celebrating.

[DJL44]

A 79-win season would be the absolute worst for this franchise. That would mean they're good enough to not sell at the deadline, but not good enough to buy at the deadline. They would miss the playoffs while squandering the trade capital they have. It would also convince ownership to run it all back again in 2027.

Quote

If they had even a neutral defense, they would be neck-and-neck with the Royals and Tigers. Defense isn't even an expensive skill to acquire. Yet, the team has left themselves worst in the league in this crucial facet.

There is some hope for improved defense in the outfield if they let Martin, Roden, Rodriguez and Jenkins field instead of Larnach and Wallner.

[FlyingFinn]

My eye test said the Twins were much better with Buxton in CF than anyone else on the team in 2025. Also, he is limited in making catches made by flying into the fence because he will get injured. Except for that, he still seemed above average to me on defense.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

The division is weak. Because the Twins have a decent-strong SP, they have a punchers chance to be successful. Great pitching can offset horrible offense. If they get above expected production from a few guys at the plate, there is a potential path to the playoffs.

Do I think it is going to happen? Highly doubtful. But everyone is in first place until opening day.

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, OregonTwinsFan said:

No sugar coating it...this year is not looking good for our beloved Twins. Wouldn't be surprised if they finish last in the division. Hope I am wrong.

Sox are stacking the cupboard. Could be rough.

[bean5302]

29 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

A 79-win season would be the absolute worst for this franchise. That would mean they're good enough to not sell at the deadline, but not good enough to buy at the deadline. They would miss the playoffs while squandering the trade capital they have. It would also convince ownership to run it all back again in 2027.

There is some hope for improved defense in the outfield if they let Martin, Roden, Rodriguez and Jenkins field instead of Larnach and Wallner.

If it's anything like previous seasons, that's not true. The team would be about 60-40 at the deadline so Falvey/Zoll could pretend it was a playoff team before they could utterly collapse in the 2nd half as the front office does nothing. 19-43 as the worst team in baseball rolls out busted up players desperately needing IL time and big gaps in the roster they pretend doesn't exist. I mean, the Twins do 79-83 with STYLE! LOL

[chinmusic]

Justin Verlander has signed a 1 year deal with the Tigers.  Amazing, back where it all began.

Skubal , Valdez....sure the Central is winnable; just not for the Twins.

[LastOnePicked]

No shortstop. No bullpen. Holes all around the rotation, the lineup and the field. But sure, first place is well within sight. After all, just four teams will be ahead of them.

Come on, gang, we should be past this by now. It was foolish not to trade Ryan, Buxton, Lopez and Jeffers but we've crossed that bridge already. Now it's just a matter of silver linings and breakout performances for a few of the youngsters.

[Road trip]

Pecota projection for the Twins?  Yeah somewhere in the 70-79 win range is reasonable.  Pecota is higher than my guess, but it's a reasonable projection.

I must be missing something on the Pecota projection for Detroit.  This is a team that won 87 games last year, returns nearly everyone of importance, and nearly their entire core from last year is under age 30.  Everyday players like Greene, Keith, Dingler, and Torkelson should get better as they are all under their age 27 season.  They added Valdez and Kenley Janssen.  Unless last year Detroit was just unreasonably lucky, I can't fathom why Pecota projects they should be dramatically worse this year.

[USAFChief]

Per VegasInsider:

Sports books have Detroit as the ALC favorite at +115 to +135

Over/under 86.5-87.5

You all can trust Pecota, or ZIPs, if you wish.

My money's on Vegas being more accurate. 

For reference:

KC +200 to +225

Cle +300 to +450

Mn +700 to +1000

Chi +2500 to +4000

https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/american-league-central/

[NYCTK]

23 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Per VegasInsider:

Sports books have Detroit as the ALC favorite at +115 to +135

Over/under 86.5-87.5

You all can trust Pecota, or ZIPs, if you wish.

My money's on Vegas being more accurate. 

For reference:

KC +200 to +225

Cle +300 to +450

Mn +700 to +1000

Chi +2500 to +4000

https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/american-league-central/

Yeah. This projection system seems out of whack. 

Vegas of 71.5 - 73.5 seems way more in line with the talent on this team. I'm even being nice when I'm saying I think they're going to win 74. 

[Scott51104]

How accurate was the PECOTA projection for the Twins in 2025?

[OregonTwinsFan]

3 minutes ago, Scott51104 said:

How accurate was the PECOTA projection for the Twins in 2025?

In 2025, PECOTA predicted the Twins to have 86.2 wins and finish in first place...not very accurate.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Per VegasInsider:

Sports books have Detroit as the ALC favorite at +115 to +135

Over/under 86.5-87.5

You all can trust Pecota, or ZIPs, if you wish.

My money's on Vegas being more accurate. 

For reference:

KC +200 to +225

Cle +300 to +450

Mn +700 to +1000

Chi +2500 to +4000

https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/american-league-central/

Vegas is playing with real money.  PECOTA is playing with....?  I will go with real money.

[twinzcynic]

If the twins finish fourth it will only be because the white sox young talent hasn't developed as much as they are hoping they have in the South side. Third place or higher will be quite unlikely unless Shelton is a magician.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

There are far too many question marks to make an accurate prediction on this team (although if you're in the projection business, you have to!).  If everything falls right, 80th percentile outcome, they could win 87 games.  If everything falls wrong (injuries, underperformance, etc.), they could win 67 games.  The middle of that isn't far from 79 games, so maybe?  

Defense isn't "unimportant" but it's less important than pitching and offense. because the margins between "good" and "bad" are much smaller.  I think they have top third starting pitching, bottom third bullpen, and MAYBE middle third offense if some things go well.  That also points to some middle of the road 75 to 80 win pace.  Where that leaves them in the division is not really good enough to win but likely in third if one of the "big" three has an off year (entirely possible).  I still think the White Sox are a long ways from competitive at this point, but they're young enough to pull a rabbit out of their hat.  

[TJSweens]

Bottom line is that as bad as this division is, it will require a better than .500 record to win it and I don't see this team as capable of doing that.

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, twinzcynic said:

If the twins finish fourth it will only be because the white sox young talent hasn't developed as much as they are hoping they have in the South side. Third place or higher will be quite unlikely unless Shelton is a magician.

Santander is out for the Jays. Time to reunite Louie and Larnach? 

[umterp23]

USA TODAY thinks differently

[tarheeltwinsfan]

4 hours ago, umterp23 said:

USA TODAY thinks differently

Just like the original Washington Senators: "First in war, first in peace and last in the American League".

[Haaz]

I cannot believe that anyone in the Twins organization can give any kind of positive vibe for this team....they will be lucky to be a 500 team.....I was a Twins fan but it has become too depressing. I have switched my allegiance to the Dodgers...they spend money like they want to win and they are exciting to watch.

[CRF]

I'm thinking...no. 

[Patzky]

3 minutes ago, CRF said:

I'm thinking...no. 

I'm thinking Arby's 

 

Wait, where were we...

[Fatbat]

It’s fine. We’re fine. It’ll be fine. Pohlads are in charge…. All is good. 🤣😂🤣

[dxpavelka]

I keep looking a prior years standings and don't see DRP reflected.  Or WAR.  BABIP? ISO? LIPS?  OPS+? wRC+? wOBA?  FIP?

Does baseball need to update the way standings are posted?

The way wins and losses are determined?  

Do wins and losses even matter any more?

Do we need to stop looking a runs scored and runs allowed?

Do we even need to play the games?

Kinda feels like maybe realignment is not where  the game needs to focus........

[Dawgzilla]

Not ever going to another Twins game until team sold and it actually goes gets players to try to even win division, let alone advance in playoffs.  I see 75 win seasons a season, on average, till then and attendance is around 1.2 million each year, meaning losing revenue and interest.  Games are to expensive to pay for watching a team that has zero chance of even a .500 season.  Summers have much more to offer, let alone at less cost.  And don't give me this "it is the experience factor" either!  MLB is in big trouble with the "haves" and "have not" team disparities.  Then you have the television rights cost.  Bad all around!