The 2026 PECOTA Projections, or: Why We Keep Calling the AL Central "Winnable"

[Whitey333]

The only competitiveness will be in fighting for last place with the White Sox.  What a messed up organization.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

14 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

There are far too many question marks to make an accurate prediction on this team (although if you're in the projection business, you have to!).  If everything falls right, 80th percentile outcome, they could win 87 games.  If everything falls wrong (injuries, underperformance, etc.), they could win 67 games.  The middle of that isn't far from 79 games, so maybe?  

Defense isn't "unimportant" but it's less important than pitching and offense. because the margins between "good" and "bad" are much smaller.  I think they have top third starting pitching, bottom third bullpen, and MAYBE middle third offense if some things go well.  That also points to some middle of the road 75 to 80 win pace.  Where that leaves them in the division is not really good enough to win but likely in third if one of the "big" three has an off year (entirely possible).  I still think the White Sox are a long ways from competitive at this point, but they're young enough to pull a rabbit out of their hat.  

this team is better than the August 25 Twins but worse than the May 25 Twins. That was a 70 win team, no flukey injuries, Buxton had his healthiest season in years. That 70 wins is the baseline.

If López tears his UCL opening day, there’s no way this team wins 67 games.

If Buxton doesn’t have an extremely healthy season, there’s no way this team wins 67 games.

If Ryan and Lopez both get devastating injuries early in the season, this team might compete with the Pale Hose for historic ineptitude.

If there’s better than average health and a ton of things go right in developing a bullpen and seeing Royce and Wallner return to form, absolutely they could be a 500 team. .500 could place them competing for the division.

Far more likely we see injuries and the usual development pendulum 

[Blyleven2011]

There is no reason to ever have another conversation as the twins with the highest payroll in the American league central  ...

Detroit is over the 244 million threshold  , they just signed Verlander and last week Valdez  , will they win the central , they are definitely favored too but still have to play the games  ...

For years the twins had a payroll higher than all central teams and could barely win a central division  ...

[Blyleven2011]

20 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

No shortstop. No bullpen. Holes all around the rotation, the lineup and the field. But sure, first place is well within sight. After all, just four teams will be ahead of them.

Come on, gang, we should be past this by now. It was foolish not to trade Ryan, Buxton, Lopez and Jeffers but we've crossed that bridge already. Now it's just a matter of silver linings and breakout performances for a few of the youngsters.

No shortstop  , no bullpen as of now , no defense and no lineup , just a bunch of bull - s**t  , rotation a strength but has questions unanswered  ..

[JD-TWINS]

18 hours ago, OregonTwinsFan said:

In 2025, PECOTA predicted the Twins to have 86.2 wins and finish in first place...not very accurate.

Kind of a silly comparative point since they traded 10 people off the 26 man roster with 33% of the games left - right? I doubt that was part of the PECOTA formula. If the FO thought 84 wins would ultimately be competitive in ‘25 they probably would not have made the moves made?

[JD-TWINS]

5 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

No shortstop  , no bullpen as of now , no defense and no lineup , just a bunch of bull - s**t  , rotation a strength but has questions unanswered  ..

Not sure if you agree or disagree with the previous statements? I personally don’t see the rotation as having unanswered questions.

Certainly agree though that SS and back end of bullpen are serious areas of concern in February!

[Blyleven2011]

3 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Not sure if you agree or disagree with the previous statements? I personally don’t see the rotation as having unanswered questions.

Certainly agree though that SS and back end of bullpen are serious areas of concern in February!

The starting pitching is a strength but spring training is for determining who will fill out the back end of the rotation and who will end up in the bullpen  and who will be in AAA to start the season  ...

[gman]

The best part of the team is the starting rotation. With the bullpen as bad as it is currently configured, the starting rotation won't look as good as they should. The starters are most probably coming out in the 6th inning more often than not, leaving with runners on base. How many additional runs will be let score by this pen and of course charged to the starters. The pen record could look real good while the starters look real bad.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

2 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

this team is better than the August 25 Twins but worse than the May 25 Twins. That was a 70 win team, no flukey injuries, Buxton had his healthiest season in years. That 70 wins is the baseline.

If López tears his UCL opening day, there’s no way this team wins 67 games.

If Buxton doesn’t have an extremely healthy season, there’s no way this team wins 67 games.

If Ryan and Lopez both get devastating injuries early in the season, this team might compete with the Pale Hose for historic ineptitude.

If there’s better than average health and a ton of things go right in developing a bullpen and seeing Royce and Wallner return to form, absolutely they could be a 500 team. .500 could place them competing for the division.

Far more likely we see injuries and the usual development pendulum 

Absolutely if we see a bunch of key injuries, this team is in trouble -- most teams are, except the ones that have $200M+ payrolls.  I'm taking the over on 70 wins.  They were playing at about a 77 win pace at the trade deadline, and there was under-performance in many areas as well as starting pitching injuries.  I'm not saying that they will be "good", but .500 is definitely not out of reach.