Minnesota Twins Should Trade Starting Pitchers—Just Not the Two Everyone's Talking About

[Cody Schoenmann]

Image courtesy of © Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Since the offseason officially began in early November, Minnesota Twins starting pitchers Pablo López and Joe Ryan have been two of the most speculated-about players in baseball, with many pundits predicting one or both of the frontline arms to be moved this winter. Reports from The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal have now downplayed the likelihood of López and/or Ryan being moved, but that doesn't mean team decision-makers won't part ways with their surplus starting pitching to fill roster holes. In fact, they should make a concerted effort to do just that.

After the frontline duo of López and Ryan, Minnesota's rotation is projected to include Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson, and Taj Bradley. The quintet of Zebby Matthews, David Festa, Mick Abel, Andrew Morris, and Kendry Rojas could fill Triple-A St. Paul's starting rotation, giving the club 10 major league-caliber (or at least promising) starting pitchers between the two levels. At the same time, the organization is deficient at multiple positions, with first base and the middle infield being the most glaring areas of need.

Instead of parting ways with one of their two frontline arms, the club would be wise to dip into its depth, trading Ober or one of their inexperienced, high-upside arms (like Matthews, Festa, or Abel) to fill holes on the position player side. The return packages Minnesota would receive for Ober, Woods Richardson, or one of their inexperienced arms would be meaningfully less exciting than what they could net for López or Ryan. Still, the club could find itself in a win-win scenario by trading one or more, adding much-needed talent and depth while clearing up the logjam at the back end of the rotation.

Ober, in particular, is an interesting trade chip, given that there are multiple avenues for Minnesota to extract value for him this offseason. The 30-year-old is expected to earn $4.6 million in arbitration, making him an enticing, low-cost veteran arm hoping to rebound from his worst season in the majors. Could the Twins swap him with the Baltimore Orioles for right-handed hitting first baseman Ryan Mountcastle, who also had a lackluster 2025 campaign? Certainly, though Minnesota would only do that if they can also get a secondary piece in the trade. Alternatively, the front office could flip Ober for multiple prospects, clearing roughly $5 million from the club's payroll and providing them more spending flexibility. That money could go toward a position player like Miguel Andujar, Rhys Hoskins, or Isiah Kiner-Falefa, on a one-year contract.

Given that Woods Richardson, Bradley, Matthews, Festa, and Abel are pre-arbitration players set to earn the league minimum in 2026, trading them wouldn't provide the same savings potential as trading Ober would. Instead, the intent of moving them would be to net similar value, with the club targeting cost-effective major league-ready position player talent. Minnesota could swap one of its young pitchers for a player like Boston Red Sox first baseman Triston Casas or Arizona Diamondbacks infielder Jordan Lawlar. New York Mets position players Mark Vientos and Luisangel Acuña are also intriguing names the Twins could pursue.

Starting pitching is Minnesota's strength. The club has frontline talent under multiple seasons of control and a surplus of high-upside depth. Instead of parting ways with one of their top arms in López or Ryan, the club should instead dip into its depth, trading one or more of Ober, Woods Richardson, Bradley, Matthews, Festa, or Abel to address holes on the position player side. The Twins have the depth necessary to absorb the loss of one or more arms. Team decision-makers should make an effort to address their lack of well-rounded positional talent and increase their chances of making the postseason in 2026.

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[Fire Dan Gladden]

Festa for Casas seems very reasonable IMO, especially if the Red Sox get Alonso.

[nicksaviking]

With Ober's injury issues last year and the velocity decline I don't think the Twins would get much back for him at this point. I think the best bet would be to cross our fingers and hope he rebounds.

I'd trade SWR though. He seems to be the one where there are equal numbers believers and disbelievers. Should that ratio hold true amongst MLB general managers, that's who I'd market.

[rdehring]

Agree with nick that there would be a question as to what they could get for Ober.  Should someone make a reasonable offer, however, that move would be interesting.  Perhaps an Ober trade would make more sense come July.

Of all the posts of late, this one was the most interesting.  Thanks.  Meanwhile I continue waiting for the Larnach trade for a reliever to be announced. 

[bunsen82]

3 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

With Ober's injury issues last year and the velocity decline I don't think the Twins would get much back for Ober at this point. I think the best bet would be to cross our fingers and hope he rebounds.

I'd trade SWR though. He seems to be the one where there are equal numbers believers and disbelievers. Should that ratio hold true amongst MLB general managers, that's who I'd market.

In my opinion SWR has much more value than Ober.   Just think about this SWR now is the higher velocity pitcher of the 2 with better metrics and better stats.  The only thing ober has is height which allows for a better angle and further release point.   

If you are going to trade a pitcher - he could bring back a legitimate piece.   

[Cory Engelhardt]

This makes so much sense. 

[chpettit19]

I can't imagine Ober's value is super high right now. He's actually a good example of why I'd trade one of Ryan or Lopez now (I don't think they can compete this year even with those 2). All it takes is one injury to tank their value. Lopez's value is probably a little lower than it should be because of his injury last year. If they don't think Ober can get any velo back and his value is never getting higher, then they should trade him this offseason. If he's back to full health and you expect him to be his normal self next year, trading him now would be awful asset management because other teams are going to make you pay for the injury concern.

I'd be pretty surprised if they traded any of the "young" guys. Could certainly be some trades to be made that move controllable pitching for controllable hitting, but I don't expect it at this point. The Twins have perceived depth in the rotation but have an entirely empty bullpen. Some of these arms are going to have to help fill that. The Twins do not have an excess of pitching, which is what really matters. Still need to get 27 outs every game. Not just the first 15-18. 

The Twins are trying to thread an incredibly small needle by trying to contend this year and moving forward. I think it's a mistake, but it's what they appear to be doing. If you move any controllable player at this point, you better be right. Losing any trades of controllable assets at this point would be absolutely devastating to this organization.

[GNess]

Interesting perspective and makes sense to keep Lopez/Ryan før now and then to deal a SP or two. Thus, the Twins can hopefully shore up some positional weaknesses such as 1B.

Creating a surplus if such a thing exists for SP does allow for trade options. Just don't empty out the supply of SP arms as they did with the BP - which seems to remain as an area of legit concern.

If Casas or Mouncastle are the targets either seem like a modest potential upgrades over current 1B options. (Clemens, Julien)

[jmlease1]

Much as a really do like SWR (dude just keeps stepping up and getting the job done in the face of many many doubters), if you're going to trade a starter he's a better option than Ober, who is more expensive and coming off a down year. Abel isn't getting dealt unless someone comes to us and makes a big offer; there's simply little chance this front office looks to deal a guy they traded for after such a short period...and waving him around to the other GM's probably gets seen as a red flag that drops his return value. ("They just got this guy and now are looking to move on? Bet there's something wrong with him.")

I'm not opposed to trading a starter. I'm just afraid the Cheap Pohlads are going to make it so we have to deal Pablo and/or Ryan.

[stringer bell]

It's about value. Yes, Ryan and Lopez are very valuable to the Twins, but prospects to replace them are plentiful with a bunch of upside. If the Twins are trying to improve their roster from today and beyond trading an established pitcher for a big haul is certainly in play. 

[Mike Sixel]

Interesting idea. I hate the FAs you suggest signing, but that's not your point. 

Why anyone would want the twins to trade for guys with less than three years of control is beyond me. 

I agree with others, Ober had little value, but I'd deal him fast if you get even a decent return. 

The one thing this hurts is building the bullpen, which is a lot harder if you aren't converting a guy like festa.

[bunsen82]

36 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I can't imagine Ober's value is super high right now. He's actually a good example of why I'd trade one of Ryan or Lopez now (I don't think they can compete this year even with those 2). All it takes is one injury to tank their value. Lopez's value is probably a little lower than it should be because of his injury last year. If they don't think Ober can get any velo back and his value is never getting higher, then they should trade him this offseason. If he's back to full health and you expect him to be his normal self next year, trading him now would be awful asset management because other teams are going to make you pay for the injury concern.

I'd be pretty surprised if they traded any of the "young" guys. Could certainly be some trades to be made that move controllable pitching for controllable hitting, but I don't expect it at this point. The Twins have perceived depth in the rotation but have an entirely empty bullpen. Some of these arms are going to have to help fill that. The Twins do not have an excess of pitching, which is what really matters. Still need to get 27 outs every game. Not just the first 15-18. 

The Twins are trying to thread an incredibly small needle by trying to contend this year and moving forward. I think it's a mistake, but it's what they appear to be doing. If you move any controllable player at this point, you better be right. Losing any trades of controllable assets at this point would be absolutely devastating to this organization.

I agree - they are threading a needle - no different than 2019 - or the prior years.    They need a lot of things to go right to be truly competitive.   

In my opinion we are marginal prospect heavy- so I would be completely fine with trading from some of this depth to help the big league team this year.  Would someone overpay for say a Prielipp, Quick, Gonzalez, Hill  Winokur, of Soto?   I don't know.  The minors is loaded with pitcher depth up and down the system. 

Matthews, Festa, Abel, SWR, Bradley, Rojas, Hill, Priellip, Quick, Soto (how is Soto rated lower than Gallagher on mlb prospects? LOL), Gallagher - interesting gambles here in Morris, Raya, and Culpepper -  the Ellwanger, Barr, and Reitz from the draft.   That is a lot of arms from MLB arms with 4 or more years of controll or prospects.   

Is this the year we finally trade from our SS  middle infield glut in the minors?    We will see.   

How they remake the bullpen is the most interesting thing to me this offseason.  

 

[bean5302]

Trade our unproven guys for stuff because we're "deep" on starting pitching? We've got 2 bonefide playoff team caliber starting pitchers on the roster. Lopez and Ryan. 

Ober +20 trade value
SWR +16 trade value, very low ceiling. maybe an adequate #5
Matthews +18 trade value, should be better, but hasn't been
Festa +12 not worth much due to health concerns
Bradley +26 all projection
Abel +10, about to wash out as a projectable starter
Prielipp +15 lots of questions here, upside, by a very low floor.
Morris +4 won't make it as an MLB starter

I'm not sure these pitchers move the needle on a legitimate upgrade, it's just swapping guys who aren't likely big contributors for guys who aren't likely big contributors. Rearranging the deck chairs so to speak.

Not sure why there's such an obsession with Casas around here. I see his name popping up frequently for years. If another team is trying to cast him off, why do we want him so desperately?
 

[NYCTK]

7 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Is this the year we finally trade from our SS glut?

What SS glut? Let's list all the exceptional SS in the Twins system: 

Culpeppper is a fine prospect. Houston is interesting and will be fun to watch develop (or frustrating to watch languish). 

End of list. 

It is an incredible failure of management to even try to compete this season. Not trading either of Ryan or Lopez is the sign of a front office with more job security than intelligence. 

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

Love the concept, less excited about the FAs you cited. I would shop Ober, and I like the idea of trading him for Mountcastle plus a solid AA type prospect or a AAA starter we can convert to the MLB bullpen. Trade of 2 guys coming off down years who have been better before and we get the kicker because starting pitching is worth more than a 1B. Do not use the money for any of Hoskins (short term very risky, long term cooked), or IKF (mediocre at best). Andujar might be worth it IF he can play at least an average 1B, otherwise has no place on this team. 

If the move is to trade from our "surplus" of young starters, to me Matthews, Abel, and Festa are off the table unless the return is pretty significant. I think the floor for both Matthews and Abel is #4 type starer, and both have top of the rotation ceilings. I would want a high end SS prospect who's already shown well at AAA plus another 45 or better prospect before I would move either of them. That may be more than they're worth so I most likely keep both. Festa is off the table for 2 reasons - his value is down now because of the injury and I think he could be one of the serious back end relievers that we desperately need. For the right return I would consider moving SWR, Bradley, or Rojas. Having said that, I think SWR and Bradley may be better traded mid-season if they have a good first half. 

Good post and good concepts. I know its hard to come up with good content right now given the lack of activity by the team and the overall outlook, so I appreciate the effort. 

[bunsen82]

27 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

What SS glut? Let's list all the exceptional SS in the Twins system: 

Culpeppper is a fine prospect. Houston is interesting and will be fun to watch develop (or frustrating to watch languish). 

End of list. 

It is an incredible failure of management to even try to compete this season. Not trading either of Ryan or Lopez is the sign of a front office with more job security than intelligence. 

 

Lee, Keaschall, Culpepper, Debarge, Young (maybe),  Winokur (maybe),  Schobel,  Houston  - then that is excluding Fitzgerald, Julien 

If you are keeping Winokur and Young at shortsop you do have a ton of SS/infield depth. 4 of the age levels has SS as the best prospect.  Now can shortstops become 2nd baseman in the future yes.   

We already did trade Eeles for Jackson.   

   

[TJSweens]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

With Ober's injury issues last year and the velocity decline I don't think the Twins would get much back for him at this point. I think the best bet would be to cross our fingers and hope he rebounds.

I'd trade SWR though. He seems to be the one where there are equal numbers believers and disbelievers. Should that ratio hold true amongst MLB general managers, that's who I'd market.

SWR could be a case of selling high. Ober would definitely not be selling high, but I'm worried that his value could evaporate completely with another year. Ever since Ober first made the majors I have been waiting for the other shoe to drop. I was wary of a long limbed, 6'9" pitcher who couldn't at least sit 93 mph with his fastball. His 91 mph fastball worked because of his extension. It had that "sneaky fast" quality. Just losing 1 mph made a huge difference. Then he to 89 and things got even worse. Ober also tends to wear down in the second half. I think the Twins already got the best they or anyone will get from Ober. I'd move him while he still has some residual value.

[NYCTK]

2 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Lee, Keaschall, Culpepper, Debarge, Young (maybe),  Winokur (maybe),  Schobel,  Houston 

If you are keeping Winokur and Young at shortsop you do have a ton of SS/infield depth.   

Lee isn't truly believed as a SS by nearly anyone. He's a placeholder until someone else is ready at which point he'll try to get playing time elsewhere around the diamond. No one thinks Keaschall is a SS.

Debarge, Young, Winokur, Schobel...all organizational depth. Not what anyone would call a glut of SS talent. One of them could take major strides and show themselves to be more than that, but they could also all flame out. 

So, we have a pretty good prospect and another decent prospect. As every major league farm should. 

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, TJSweens said:

SWR could be a case of selling high. Ober would definitely not be selling high, but I'm worried that his value could evaporate completely with another year. Ever since Ober first made the majors I have been waiting for the other shoe to drop. I was wary of a long limbed, 6'9" pitcher who couldn't at least sit 93 mph with his fastball. His 91 mph fastball worked because of his extension. It had that "sneaky fast" quality. Just losing 1 mph made a huge difference. Then he to 89 and things got even worse. Ober also tends to wear down in the second half. I think the Twins already got the best they or anyone will get from Ober. I'd move him while he still has some residual value.

Bailey Ober has been better in the 2nd half of seasons than the first half for his career. 

First Half: .248/.296/.442/.738 slash line against, 4.19 ERA, 1.189 WHIP
Second Half: .228/.269/.415/.684 slash line against, 3.94 ERA, 1.039 WHIP

He has his lowest OPS against in September in the most starts of any month. Best WHIP and SO/9 as well. He has a 3.58 ERA in September, which, again, is the month he's thrown the most innings in his career.

Joe Ryan is who wears down in the second half, not Bailey Ober. The concern with Ober is if he can get that velo back. If it wasn't an injury (I believe it was a hip thing) that was causing that last year, he's toast. If it was an injury and he's fully healthy now, he has a decent enough chance to bounce back next year and rebuild some nice value before the deadline.

[bunsen82]

9 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Lee isn't truly believed as a SS by nearly anyone. He's a placeholder until someone else is ready at which point he'll try to get playing time elsewhere around the diamond. No one thinks Keaschall is a SS.

Debarge, Young, Winokur, Schobel...all organizational depth. Not what anyone would call a glut of SS talent. One of them could take major strides and show themselves to be more than that, but they could also all flame out. 

So, we have a pretty good prospect and another decent prospect. As every major league farm should. 

I said SS/middle infielders in the orginal post.  The majority of our dept is SS.  The majority of our top picks have been SS middle infield.   

To be fair though,  there is less talent there than I thought.  

[nicksaviking]

36 minutes ago, TJSweens said:

SWR could be a case of selling high. Ober would definitely not be selling high, but I'm worried that his value could evaporate completely with another year. Ever since Ober first made the majors I have been waiting for the other shoe to drop. I was wary of a long limbed, 6'9" pitcher who couldn't at least sit 93 mph with his fastball. His 91 mph fastball worked because of his extension. It had that "sneaky fast" quality. Just losing 1 mph made a huge difference. Then he to 89 and things got even worse. Ober also tends to wear down in the second half. I think the Twins already got the best they or anyone will get from Ober. I'd move him while he still has some residual value.

I really don't think he has any meaningful value at this time. He was dreadful last year and now there are age, injury and velocity concerns. If they got more than some A ball lotto ticket unlikely to ever make the majors I'd be shocked. I have no interest in that kind of return, I'd rather hold the hand I was dealt and cross my fingers.

[HerbieFan]

Love the idea Cody.  This concept would assume a trade is to make the Twins better and not just be a cost-cutting move.  Like a lot of others, I wonder what Ober's value would be after 2025.  I think the return would be low enough that I might just bet on a rebound from him.  IMO, if you can deal SWR and get a player that fits into and makes the lineup better - RH hitting 1B, RH hitting corner OF that can back up Buxton, good BP arm, I would pull the trigger on that.  He's out of options, so it's ML rotation or bust.  And, I could be wrong, but I just don't think he has much more upside than what he's show.

[Eris]

The Twins or any other team can not have too much pitching. Also we have lots of holes in the bullpen to fill. 
 

The underperformance for the Twins in 2025 is on the position side. LF, RF, 1B, 3B and backup catcher. One area of focus needs to be on finding suitable positions or trades for Larnach and Wallner and possibly moving on from Lewis. 

[tony&rodney]

To my knowledge there are no restrictions on both trading away starting pitching and adding starting pitching. Payroll sits below $100M at this time.

1. Bailey Ober, Kyle DeBarge to ARI for Jordan Lawler

2. Taj Bradley, Justin Topa to MIL for Jeferson Quero.

3. Taj Bradley, Marco Raya, Royce Lewis to SAC for Leodalis De Vries.

4. Matt Wallner, Jose Olivares to PIT for Jared Jones.

5. Matt Wallner, Alan Roden, Marek Houston to MIA for Edward Cabrera.

Do #1, #3, #5 and sign Pete Fairbanks plus a LH reliever and the offseason is looking better.

Point being, there are options. The only option that seems insane is rolling it back again and declaring, "IF".

 

[weitz41]

I'd think Ober is the most likely. Mainly because of 2 years of control left. But then you may be selling low after last season's issues.

Zebby and Festa seem like keepers to me. They may end up in the BP and if so could be Jax and Duran 2.0. SWR looks like a typical #4-6 starter on a good team, probably not going to get enough for him to make it worthwhile. The others I think it's too early to part with them.

[1985Fan]

Ober is not going to net a meaningful bat in return. His value is low right now, maybe in July. The arms that don’t make the starting rotation are going to have to be used in the BP. Matthews and Priellip for sure are good candidates. I’d hate see Bradley used there, but that should be on the table for him and anyone else that can’t start. I’d love to see a six man rotation to start the year, if possible. Let the starters go deeper in the game to minimize BP use since the BP is a weakness. 

[miller761]

Package Larnach and SWR for a right handed hitting help.

 

 

[tony&rodney]

25 minutes ago, miller761 said:

Package Larnach and SWR for a right handed hitting help.

 

 

Be more specific. Which RH bat?

Also why a RH bat? The Twins have Jeffers, Keaschall, Lewis, and Buxton as regulars. Lee is a switch hitter. The Twins currently do not have a single every day LH bat. They have guys used in platoons: Larnach, Julien, Clemens, and Wallner. Roden may make the team in a platoon or part time role. The Twins could really use an every day regular position player that bats left-handed.

[TJSweens]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Bailey Ober has been better in the 2nd half of seasons than the first half for his career. 

First Half: .248/.296/.442/.738 slash line against, 4.19 ERA, 1.189 WHIP
Second Half: .228/.269/.415/.684 slash line against, 3.94 ERA, 1.039 WHIP

He has his lowest OPS against in September in the most starts of any month. Best WHIP and SO/9 as well. He has a 3.58 ERA in September, which, again, is the month he's thrown the most innings in his career.

Joe Ryan is who wears down in the second half, not Bailey Ober. The concern with Ober is if he can get that velo back. If it wasn't an injury (I believe it was a hip thing) that was causing that last year, he's toast. If it was an injury and he's fully healthy now, he has a decent enough chance to bounce back next year and rebuild some nice value before the deadline.

Ober has also hit the wall hard in September. In 2023 he got shut down the first 2 weeks of September after a few 4 and 5 inning starts in and was only used as an opener or out of the pen in the playoffs. 

In 2022 he was on and off the IL with groin issues. 

I think stikk think Ober has residual value. One year can be explained away. Two can't. I'd gage the market now. If there is no interest then of course, sit. I just think there be more interest than you realize.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, 1985Fan said:

Ober is not going to net a meaningful bat in return. His value is low right now,

From what others are saying, Ober is valued at 20 on BBTV, which is higher than Lopez and Jordan Lawler. The Twins need to reach out with interest to other teams and be proactive. Rolling back with the current roster could be a 62 win team, 75 in best case. Something needs to change unless the new coaches and managers are worth 10-15 wins. Maybe that is the ticket.