Minnesota Twins Should Trade Starting Pitchers—Just Not the Two Everyone's Talking About

[old nurse]

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Bailey Ober has been better in the 2nd half of seasons than the first half for his career. 

First Half: .248/.296/.442/.738 slash line against, 4.19 ERA, 1.189 WHIP
Second Half: .228/.269/.415/.684 slash line against, 3.94 ERA, 1.039 WHIP

He has his lowest OPS against in September in the most starts of any month. Best WHIP and SO/9 as well. He has a 3.58 ERA in September, which, again, is the month he's thrown the most innings in his career.

Joe Ryan is who wears down in the second half, not Bailey Ober. The concern with Ober is if he can get that velo back. If it wasn't an injury (I believe it was a hip thing) that was causing that last year, he's toast. If it was an injury and he's fully healthy now, he has a decent enough chance to bounce back next year and rebuild some nice value before the deadline.

A left hip impingement. The head of the femur is scraping in the joint.  That is not something that happens overnight. Strengthening and stretching after a period of rest. That he was out less than 4 weeks seems odd.  Arb eligible, so I suppose playing time is money. See Royce Lewis coming back too soon.  

Will he come back to what he was?  Does he take the proper rest time and then go through the therapy? Find out soon enough 

[old nurse]

The more desperate a team is for a player the better the deal for the seller. If the Twins are dealing starters they are best off letting the market come to them. 

[1985Fan]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

From what others are saying, Ober is valued at 20 on BBTV, which is higher than Lopez and Jordan Lawler. The Twins need to reach out with interest to other teams and be proactive. Rolling back with the current roster could be a 62 win team, 75 in best case. Something needs to change unless the new coaches and managers are worth 10-15 wins. Maybe that is the ticket.

Thats surprising given his finish to the season. If that’s correct and baseball GM’s feel the same way, then I’m all in to trade him. If I’m a GM, he’s not worth more than Lopez. Ober for Lawler would be a great trade. 

[D.C Twins]

9 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I can't imagine Ober's value is super high right now. He's actually a good example of why I'd trade one of Ryan or Lopez now (I don't think they can compete this year even with those 2). All it takes is one injury to tank their value. Lopez's value is probably a little lower than it should be because of his injury last year. If they don't think Ober can get any velo back and his value is never getting higher, then they should trade him this offseason. If he's back to full health and you expect him to be his normal self next year, trading him now would be awful asset management because other teams are going to make you pay for the injury concern.

I'd be pretty surprised if they traded any of the "young" guys. Could certainly be some trades to be made that move controllable pitching for controllable hitting, but I don't expect it at this point. The Twins have perceived depth in the rotation but have an entirely empty bullpen. Some of these arms are going to have to help fill that. The Twins do not have an excess of pitching, which is what really matters. Still need to get 27 outs every game. Not just the first 15-18. 

The Twins are trying to thread an incredibly small needle by trying to contend this year and moving forward. I think it's a mistake, but it's what they appear to be doing. If you move any controllable player at this point, you better be right. Losing any trades of controllable assets at this point would be absolutely devastating to this organization.

This.... this...aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand.....THIS!

[arby58]

Maybe they could/should/would trade from surplus starting pitching, but the four players suggested have 'yuck' all over them.

Casas last year was -0.9 WAR, .580 OPS and OPS+ of 62. He makes Clemens look like a superstar.

Lawler was even worse, with a 51 OPS+ and .545 OPS. He is negative WAR both for last year and his career.

Vientos was closer, with 'only' a -0.2 WAR, 97 OPS+ and .702 OPS.

Acuna was 63 OPS+ AND .567 OPS.

Is this really the best you could get for Ober (1.1 WAR) or SWR (2.2 WAR)? I sure hope not.

[DocBauer]

I have to disagree, Cody. Ober is not old, doesn't have a ton of miles on his arm, isn't expensive, and his hip issue is what messed up his season. The question remains if his mechanics slipped and messed up his hip, or did he hurt his hip and it messed up his mechanics and everything else along with it? We have a chicken and egg arguement here. 

We have yet to hear a single word that Ober's injury requires anything other than an offseason of reat and normal rehab. I see his value, based on previous, healthy production and low $ as being of great value to the Twins. More than moving him would add. And while I feel really positive about the progression of SWR, Bradley and Matthews are both a bit of a question mark entering 2026. 

Abel looks SO CLOSE to being about ready. And I think a lot of people are selling Morris short based on his 2nd half of 2025 after an injury stint, and realizing he was accidentally tipping pitches early on. 

In my heart of hearts, I really wanted Festa to be a great story of a late round draftee who turned in to a quality SP. And maybe I'm wrong...he's still "young" and has flashed...but considering how dominant he is ONE TIME through a lineup, and still solid the SECOND time, and his build and remaining stamina questions, and his shoulder issues in 2025, I just think he's on a "Duran" path of moving to the bullpen. 

OBVIOUSLY,  most SP, especially young ones, have some struggles learning and adapting to being able to handle a lineup the 3rd time. It's just a fact. And a single season of shoulder issues shouldn't be a single indicator of a young arm moving to the pen. But when you combine all factors together, Festa is just a logical move to the pen where he might prove to be a dominant arm.

IMO, that's where he should be for 2026 and beyond.

The rotation still has Lopez, Ryan, Ober, SWR, and then open competition between Bradley, Matthews, Abel, and Morris. Behind them is Rojas and CJ Culpepper. 

That's an enticing group.

1B SHOULD be Lowe on a 2yr $18-20M deal and 1B is solid for the next 2yrs and you don't have to move ANY arms. His FIT is so PERFECT for the Twins it's almost crazy they haven't made the move yet.

And it's time to move on from Larnach and let Martin, Roden, Rodriguez, Jenkins, and Gonzalez...all younger, cheaper, and with more potential...fill out the OF. Package him to a team in need of someone with a career .759 OPS against RHP that has a solid young pen arm they are willing to move for him and a decent prospect or two. That also removes his projected $4.7M off the payroll. Be creative!

Then ADD a couple veteran RP for around $11-12M. Do I have to repeat the options AGAIN in ANOTHER OP? Or can we just accept status quo at this point?

Post arbitration, Larnach moved in whatever fashion...help of prospects...the payroll sits about $85-86M. Lowe at $10M, and the aforementioned FA RP, the payroll only sits about $106M roughly. 

WHY trade young pitching of any sort where even a PALTRY $110M payroll could make a very solid addition to the lineup and the pen, and could possibly have enough room for 1 more add on a low $ deal for the BP or INF?

To quote the famous Chris Carter line: "come on man!" Your own TOD podcast provided a very sound idea...swapping Goldschmidt for Lowe...that makes more sense than trading away arm talent on hand.

 

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, arby58 said:

Maybe they could/should/would trade from surplus starting pitching, but the four players suggested have 'yuck' all over them.

Casas last year was -0.9 WAR, .580 OPS and OPS+ of 62. He makes Clemens look like a superstar.

Lawler was even worse, with a 51 OPS+ and .545 OPS. He is negative WAR both for last year and his career.

Vientos was closer, with 'only' a -0.2 WAR, 97 OPS+ and .702 OPS.

Acuna was 63 OPS+ AND .567 OPS.

Is this really the best you could get for Ober (1.1 WAR) or SWR (2.2 WAR)? I sure hope not.

Lawler has two middle infielders, Ketel Marte and Geraldo Perdomo who are both superstars in his way. His appearances have been extremely sporadic with 108 PA, never having regular duty. Vientos has 1,191 PA. Casas has 952 PA. Acuna even has 233 PA and was a regular for a stretch. I don't think the players are comparable. I don't really care for 3 of the 4 for various reasons.

However, since I have been promoting the acquisition of Lawler there is zero objectivity on my part and I'll agree there is a gamble in trading for Lawler. The Twins need to take a few gambles.

[GNess]

10 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Trade our unproven guys for stuff because we're "deep" on starting pitching? We've got 2 bonefide playoff team caliber starting pitchers on the roster. Lopez and Ryan. 

Ober +20 trade value
SWR +16 trade value, very low ceiling. maybe an adequate #5
Matthews +18 trade value, should be better, but hasn't been
Festa +12 not worth much due to health concerns
Bradley +26 all projection
Abel +10, about to wash out as a projectable starter
Prielipp +15 lots of questions here, upside, by a very low floor.
Morris +4 won't make it as an MLB starter

I'm not sure these pitchers move the needle on a legitimate upgrade, it's just swapping guys who aren't likely big contributors for guys who aren't likely big contributors. Rearranging the deck chairs so to speak.

Not sure why there's such an obsession with Casas around here. I see his name popping up frequently for years. If another team is trying to cast him off, why do we want him so desperately?
 

Casas posted two years of OPS at or above .800. He is a 1B by position. Adding Casas would also free up Clemens to serve in a utility role, which seems to suit him. Casas has 4 years of team control I think.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, GNess said:

Casas posted two years of OPS at or above .800. He is a 1B by position. Adding Casas would also free up Clemens to serve in a utility role, which seems to suit him. Casas has 4 years of team control I think.

Triston Casas 

He's not a starting caliber 1B.

[arby58]

9 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Lawler has two middle infielders, Ketel Marte and Geraldo Perdomo who are both superstars in his way. His appearances have been extremely sporadic with 108 PA, never having regular duty. Vientos has 1,191 PA. Casas has 952 PA. Acuna even has 233 PA and was a regular for a stretch. I don't think the players are comparable. I don't really care for 3 of the 4 for various reasons.

However, since I have been promoting the acquisition of Lawler there is zero objectivity on my part and I'll agree there is a gamble in trading for Lawler. The Twins need to take a few gambles.

I will grant you that Lawler has strong stats at AAA over two years - that still doesn't strike me as sufficient for SWR, who has decent stats in MLB over the last two years and is still only 25. Maybe Ober, definitely one of hte others.

[saviking]

What holes in the outfield? We have e young guys at AAA awaiting their call up and there are openings at the moment. 

[Jim H]

I don't agree with the premise Of this article. The Twins traded half their roster at the trade deadline to acquire a bunch of live realatively young arms and 3 outfielders.  Added to the youngish live arms they already had, means they will be spending spring training and probably a good part of the upcoming season figuring out who stays a starter and who becomes a reliever. Trading any of them doesn't really make much sense until they figure some of that out.

If they are trading anybody this offseason, it will likely be from the pool of outfielders. If you believe in their near ready outfield talent, you don't need a bunch of guys blocking them. 

[NYCTK]

7 hours ago, arby58 said:

I will grant you that Lawler has strong stats at AAA over two years - that still doesn't strike me as sufficient for SWR, who has decent stats in MLB over the last two years and is still only 25. Maybe Ober, definitely one of hte others.

Lawlar in return for SWR would be a steal. 

He was a consensus top 30 prospect last year and didn't really do anything to lose that shine, apart from failing to usurp entrenched starters. 

 

[arby58]

15 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Lawlar in return for SWR would be a steal. 

He was a consensus top 30 prospect last year and didn't really do anything to lose that shine, apart from failing to usurp entrenched starters. 

Brooks Lee was #31 in 2023, and Taj Bradley was #20. Meanwhile, all SWR has done is be a solid starting pitcher the last two years in MLB, not AAA.

[MGX]

34 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Lawlar in return for SWR would be a steal. 

He was a consensus top 30 prospect last year and didn't really do anything to lose that shine, apart from failing to usurp entrenched starters. 

 

So trade a starter who is clearly part of our rotation & was the best pitcher on the staff in September for a prospect who has proven nothing at the MLB level & has suffered multiple leg injuries over the past couple of seasons when one of his primary sources of value is athleticism, No thanks.

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, MGX said:

So trade a starter who is clearly part of our rotation & was the best pitcher on the staff in September for a prospect who has proven nothing at the MLB level & has suffered multiple leg injuries over the past couple of seasons when one of his primary sources of value is athleticism, No thanks.

Woods Richardson is a perfectly serviceable starter, but there's no real hope for him to improve upon his pretty consistent results. He seems to be a mid 4s starter. Something that is valuable, but plentiful. 

If you can get Lawlar for that, you take it. Now, the question you raise is a good one, about his health. I'm not familiar with Lawlar's injury history, but that's why they have physicals as part of these deals...unless you're the Angels apparently. 

[arby58]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

Woods Richardson is a perfectly serviceable starter, but there's no real hope for him to improve upon his pretty consistent results. He seems to be a mid 4s starter. Something that is valuable, but plentiful. 

If you can get Lawlar for that, you take it. Now, the question you raise is a good one, about his health. I'm not familiar with Lawlar's injury history, but that's why they have physicals as part of these deals...unless you're the Angels apparently. 

SWR is 25 years old - there most certainly is room for improvement. I 'get' that Lawler has only had 97 ABs, but after that amount of ABs, Luke Keaschall was earning playing time and, in about twice Lawler's ABs was ending the season with 128 OPS+, .827 OPS and 2.0 WAR. 

Lawler's 97 ABs don't exactly inspire confidence - .165 BA, .478 OPS, 33 OPS+ and -0.5 WAR.  Nor does his injury history (from Google AI): Arizona Diamondbacks prospect Jordan Lawlar has had a significant injury history early in his pro career, starting with a 2021 shoulder labrum tear requiring surgery, followed by a 2022 scapula fracture (from a HBP) and notable 2024 issues including thumb ligament surgery (UCL) and recurrent hamstring strains, limiting his playing time despite high potential, making health a major concern. 

[tony&rodney]

12 hours ago, arby58 said:

I will grant you that Lawler has strong stats at AAA over two years - that still doesn't strike me as sufficient for SWR, who has decent stats in MLB over the last two years and is still only 25. Maybe Ober, definitely one of hte others.

Ober

[tony&rodney]

13 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Ober

I meant to put Ober plus Kyle DeBarge. 

[nova_twins]

Ober has minimal value at this point, he didn't look good down the stretch and has a long history of injuries during his career. I would trade him for a marginal prospect and move on. 

SWR currently projects as a 5th starter, not much trade value there either. I do think he's a breakout candidate but other clubs can't assume that happens. 

Lots of really bad trade speculation in this thread, other GMs have no interest in parting with upside for backend starters. 

[tony&rodney]

Do both - trade a starting pitcher and trade for a starting pitcher. i would target Jared Jones and Edward Cabrera.