3 Positions That Will Telegraph Minnesota Twins' Intentions in 2026

[Cody Pirkl]

Image courtesy of © Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

The Twins front office has expressed a desire to add to the current roster, but their ability to do so is likely to be limited by the impending partial sale of the team. Even when this is resolved, we've learned that getting a straight answer on anything from this regime is not going to happen. Regarding the team’s intentions to contend in 2026, fans will have to draw their own conclusions based on how the offseason goes. There are several spots on the roster to watch to gauge whether the Twins are trying to contend in 2026, but three stand out.

First Base
The Twins have been shuffling first basemen for the last few years, opting to fill the spot with cheap veterans who have had varying degrees of success. In 2025, it was one of the team’s weaker positions. Opening Day starter Ty France eventually lost his job to career journeyman Kody Clemens, who had some nice moments but wasn’t the kind of player a contending team wants to have in the lineup every day.

First base is at the bottom of the defensive spectrum. Having a good defensive first baseman is nice, but offensive production is an absolute must. The 29-year-old Clemens is the incumbent, coming off a .715 OPS, which was below league average overall and well below average among first basemen. The Twins also have no legitimate prospects on their way to take the position over midseason. 

It’ll be worth watching whether they see value in upgrading the position, either in free agency or via trade. The team is in desperate need of a boost offensively, and adding a first baseman with more upside is one of the most cost-effective upgrades they can make. If they roll with what they have headed into 2026, it’s worth questioning how serious they are.

The Bullpen
The once-elite Twins bullpen is now one of the worst in baseball, following a shocking sell-off at the trade deadline. Falvey and company downplayed the effect of these moves, explaining that they had built the previous bullpen internally. While that's true, he failed to mention that assembling the previous group took years of trial and error. Pretending that the current group (along with a few waiver claims and minor-league signings) will be competitive in 2026 is unrealistic.

This regime has shown that they don’t value relievers highly enough to spend much on them in free agency. They’ve rarely invested in them, and it’s gone quite poorly on the rare occasions when they have. Unfortunately, they’ve left themselves no choice but to do it this winter, if they’re serious about competing in 2026. The Twins could have a top-five rotation in 2026, yet they may miss the playoffs with their current bullpen. They need to hit on two or three legitimate arms to turn to at the back end of games, or the rest of the roster won’t matter. If they choose to stand pat, they likely aren’t especially worried about winning games in 2026.

López and Ryan
The most obvious tell for the Twins' intentions in 2026 will be what they do with Joe Ryan and Pablo López. Derek Falvey has expressed his desire to keep both players, but payroll may leave him no choice but to sell them off for parts. Regardless of what they bring back, trading one or both of them would be waving the white flag. 

The rotation is the lone bright spot of the Twins' roster. We can dream of a world where Taj Bradley, Mick Abel and others take a big step and fill the void left by trading away high-end starters, but that would be refusing to admit what’s right in front of us. López and Ryan each have multiple years of team control at prices below their market value. Teams looking to compete don’t trade these types of players when they’re in the situation the Twins are in. They do it to lower their payroll and try to sell the cheaper prospects they get in return, as a reason for the fanbase to have hope. 

If either López or Ryan is traded, the Twins are telling us 2026 doesn’t matter. The path to competing without one of these two at the front of the rotation becomes far too narrow. The team would be left with question marks across all departments, and it’s been years since this front office has given confidence that they can find answers.

Local writers will undoubtedly continue to push for answers regarding the Twins' intentions for 2026, but there’s very little chance they will get them at any point this offseason. Actions speak louder than words, anyway, and watching their moves this offseason will give us all the answers we need. Will the Twins make a legitimate effort to improve in 2026, or will their stated goals of adding to the roster be undermined by the actions they take?

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[old nurse]

Yup, the Twins need a first baseman and a bullpen. Yup the Twins have a lot of unproven staters. If there was any doubt about it, the 100th article and the millionth comment about these three things should be erased with this article and comments section.  Analytically is there any way to get Julian back hitting like he did as a rookie? Are Beaurgie and Shelty the guys to do it?  Is.  Out of Lopez, Ryan, Ober, SWR, are starters  Bradley, Abel, Mathews, and Festa for the last spot along with Kline and Morris for the 5th spot.As they really have nothing really to gain by being in AAA, do the losers become  every fourth day bulk relievers? At least idle speculation of what they could be doing is something other than rehashing the same old thing.

[mike8791]

Agree completely with your analysis, with one big exception.  1B is key offensive hole that must be filled with someone who has 30HR/100RBI potential for 2026 if this team is going to be competitive.  Knowing they won't spend the $ for a FA, the only way to fill this hole is by trade.  And the only player(s) currently on the roster who could bring in such a player would be Lopez or Ryan, with the latter far more likely to merit an established 1B with middle-of-the-lineup capability.  Starters are the Twins current surplus and thus, the most practical way to fill this hole.  A DH is also needed but would come much cheaper ala Carlos Santana in 2023.  Both of these offensive holes need to be filled and fortunately, the rotation has enough prospects to warrant the risk of trading Ryan.

[Craig Arko]

Does Falvey read the Kama Sutra?

[Thebigalguy]

I like Clemens. Can he improve? We'll see, apparently. Otherwise, I agree with CP. Trading Ryan or Lopez will sour me on the team in 2026. Keep them, build a good bullpen with signings and conversion of starters, and let the new manager and his coaches see what the offense and defense are capable of with the mix of vets and young players. I was surprised to see 82-80 as the likely result in 2026, but that's very optimistic if more vets get traded. If not, and if the bullpen is built up again, there's an opportunity for a worthy season. 

[chpettit19]

11 minutes ago, Thebigalguy said:

I like Clemens. Can he improve? We'll see, apparently. Otherwise, I agree with CP. Trading Ryan or Lopez will sour me on the team in 2026. Keep them, build a good bullpen with signings and conversion of starters, and let the new manager and his coaches see what the offense and defense are capable of with the mix of vets and young players. I was surprised to see 82-80 as the likely result in 2026, but that's very optimistic if more vets get traded. If not, and if the bullpen is built up again, there's an opportunity for a worthy season. 

If you are a betting man and can get an O/U of 81.5 wins on the 2026 Twins, bet every dollar you have on the under.

[SteveLV]

I would add whether or not they trade Jeffers.  Or they could stun the world and extend him! /s

[S Bart]

37 minutes ago, Thebigalguy said:

I like Clemens. Can he improve? We'll see, apparently. Otherwise, I agree with CP. Trading Ryan or Lopez will sour me on the team in 2026. Keep them, build a good bullpen with signings and conversion of starters, and let the new manager and his coaches see what the offense and defense are capable of with the mix of vets and young players. I was surprised to see 82-80 as the likely result in 2026, but that's very optimistic if more vets get traded. If not, and if the bullpen is built up again, there's an opportunity for a worthy season. 

Agree....Clemens is better in a Castro type role where he fills in at various positions......the pitching issue is the big issue...dumping the 2 top starters will provide the fans with the idea that abandonment has completely taken place. 

[mickster]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

Yup, the Twins need a first baseman and a bullpen. Yup the Twins have a lot of unproven staters. If there was any doubt about it, the 100th article and the millionth comment about these three things should be erased with this article and comments section.  Analytically is there any way to get Julian back hitting like he did as a rookie? Are Beaurgie and Shelty the guys to do it?  Is.  Out of Lopez, Ryan, Ober, SWR, are starters  Bradley, Abel, Mathews, and Festa for the last spot along with Kline and Morris for the 5th spot.As they really have nothing really to gain by being in AAA, do the losers become  every fourth day bulk relievers? At least idle speculation of what they could be doing is something other than rehashing the same old thing.

starters should be Ryan, Lopez, Bradly, Ober and SWR.    Festa should be at the back end of the bullpen with Matthews as a bulk guy.   I would love to see Abel take a spot in the rotation, and I believe SWR would then be the odd man out.   I would like to see them see what they can get for Ober packaged with Erod on the offensive (1B) side of the ball.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I can see a world where they make a trade of just Ryan for a haul while his value is highest. But I do think they need a real addition at 1b/dh along with it at minimum. They’ve needed a true middle of the order bat since Cruz has left and they haven’t addressed that.

I don’t care that much about the dollar amount they spend on relievers to be honest. But they have to add some arms with good experience there 

[Drtwins]

I may be overly optimistic but if the twins do these 3 things maybe they’ll be alright. They have solid starters with Lopez, Ryan, Ober, SWR, and which young starter wins the 5th spot. Leave a couple of the starters who don’t win the 5th spot stretched out in the minors for when the inevitable injury occurs, covert a couple to relievers while picking up some bargain bin vets like always. The key is getting a first baseman or dh that can hit. Maybe that’s Steer for larnach and one of the lower end starting pitcher prospects the Twins have. Additionally, after reading the diamond centric rule 5 article I wouldn’t be upset selecting Susac and letting him battle Jackson for the backup catcher position in spring training. Send him back if he doesn’t win.

[jmlease1]

52 minutes ago, Drtwins said:

 

I may be overly optimistic but if the twins do these 3 things maybe they’ll be alright. They have solid starters with Lopez, Ryan, Ober, SWR, and which young starter wins the 5th spot. Leave a couple of the starters who don’t win the 5th spot stretched out in the minors for when the inevitable injury occurs, covert a couple to relievers while picking up some bargain bin vets like always. The key is getting a first baseman or dh that can hit. Maybe that’s Steer for larnach and one of the lower end starting pitcher prospects the Twins have. Additionally, after reading the diamond centric rule 5 article I wouldn’t be upset selecting Susac and letting him battle Jackson for the backup catcher position in spring training. Send him back if he doesn’t win.

You're not wrong. It's not hard at all to see a world where they rebuild a chunk of the bullpen, add a solid RH bat to play 1B/DH, dump some of the reclamation projects off the roster with promising rookies/prospects, and be able to think: hey, with a few breaks this team could be pretty good and should at least be interesting and fun to watch. (I'm less excited about bringing back Spencer Steer, who hasn't been a league-average hitter since 2023 and has been on a decline since his breakout in 2023, despite good health and plenty of PT)

You can see a path forward that's fairly reasonable and wouldn't require breaking the bank. But it's even easier to see the Cheap Pohlads forcing more payroll cuts, sunk costs like Outman lingering on for months, and players like Wallner & Lewis not having the bounce back years they need in order to make it happen.

I think the article pinpoints exactly where the biggest tells are for what the franchise intends. Never listen to what front office people SAY, watch what they DO. Same goes for managers, owners, etc. I don't care what Falvey says at the Winter Meetings (I'm not going to get mad about it, either). I'll understand what you really meant when I know where Pablo Lopez is starting Opening Day, or Kody Clemens is handed the everyday 1B job, or we sign or don't sign a veteran reliever with some experience at the end of games.

(personally, I think we'll know something if Outman gets handed a roster spot on scholarship too, but YMMV)

[bunsen82]

They already hinted at Clemens being our 1st baseman.   Either as the true starter or platoon.  

As to relief pitching,   I will be very curious what they do.  In general they don't spend a lot of resources in the bullpen, but they depleted the bullpen.  I am expecting some trades and/or free agent signings.  We brought back Topa so I am assuming 2/3 spots to fill.  And had 1 minor trade for Orze

1. Sands

2. Topa

3. Orze

4. Funderburk

???

???

???

???

 

 

On the 40 man you have Festa, Klein, Morris, Ohl, Raya, Rojas they could transition to the bullpen.  I think they keep Prielipp, Matthews and most likely Rojas as starters.  My guess is they fill 2 spots internally and 2 more by trades or free agency.  

[IndyTwinsFan]

Sidebar note.  It appears as though there may be one less suitor for Joe Ryan. 

It appears as though the Red Sox have just acquired former Twin Sonny Gray from the Cards to fill their starter hole.

Not sure if that means much in the big picture, but it certainly could.

[D.C Twins]

No overt clarity will come until after they have had as much time as possible to sell season tickets to those still living in fantasy land. 

But, their intentions are already obvious based on their actions already for those not in denial... 

[D.C Twins]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

If you are a betting man and can get an O/U of 81.5 wins on the 2026 Twins, bet every dollar you have on the under.

Hey... save some of his money for me to bet him too!!!!

[The Great Hambino]

22 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

They already hinted at Clemens being our 1st baseman.   Either as the true starter or platoon.  

As to relief pitching,   I will be very curious what they do.  In general they don't spend a lot of resources in the bullpen, but they depleted the bullpen.  I am expecting some trades and/or free agent signings.  We brought back Topa so I am assuming 2/3 spots to fill.  And had 1 minor trade for Orze

1. Sands

2. Topa

3. Orze

4. Funderburk

???

???

???

???

 

 

On the 40 man you have Festa, Klein, Morris, Ohl, Raya, Rojas they could transition to the bullpen.  I think they keep Prielipp, Matthews and most likely Rojas as starters.  My guess is they fill 2 spots internally and 2 more by trades or free agency.  

The way things have taken shape, I think there's a decent chance one of those holes is filled with a Rule V pick

[karcherd]

The situation at 1B is no different than last year, Falvey has basically annointed Clemens as the starter the same as he did last year with France after signing him to a $1m contract.  I would be very surprised if they sign any additional resources for 1B.  Even a RH platoon if they don't play another position would  be a poor use of roster resources. 

But the same point still applies to as it does to every other post, we do not know the direction the Twins want to go.  But when they keep players like Gasper, Kriedler and Fitzgerald on the 40 man and take the risk of exposing of other prospects to the rule 5, it is not a good start.  And they do not have young players on the 40 man, they are mostly a collection of players in their late 20's who have had minimal success if any at the major league level.  I hope they do something to show us some reason to watch this season.

[bunsen82]

33 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

The way things have taken shape, I think there's a decent chance one of those holes is filled with a Rule V pick

 We pick 4th most likely.  

Could we see the 1st base platoon be Blaze Jordan or David McCabe?  

You also would have Burkholder or Mullins you could put in the bullpen or as a starter if we trade some pitching.  

Maybe they take a chance on Pinango - 90% exit velocity.   80% contact rate - but just refuses to swing the bat.   

If we take a player it is most likely one of the first 4.   We have holes at both rp and 1st base so I do agree RP could be a pick, but I wouldn't discount a 1st base pick either.   

I would have them ranked 1.Mullins 2. Burkholder  3. Jordan  4. Pinango  5. McCabe

One other intriguing name - Could we grab Birdsell again.  

[IndianaTwin]

Actually, a few years ago, they did state their intentions early in the offseason and got excoriated for it. 

[TopGunn#22]

A sobering but very astute article Cody.  We all would love to see the Twins have a competitive season in a division that year after year is win-able.  Unfortunately, we are all stuck in purgatory with the same ownership and same FO.  They fired the manager and most of his coaching staff is gone, which was a move that needed to happen.  But their actions will speak louder than any words and I have very little confidence for 2026.

I will take solace in the hope that Buxton is not traded and stays healthy.  If he's healthy, he will produce and be entertaining.  That Keaschall will continue to progress and have a healthy season.  This Lewis will be 2nd half of 2023 Lewis, and that some of our anxiously awaited prospects (Jenkins, E-Rod, Prielipp and Culpepper) eventually make it to the majors and give us hope for a future Twins team. 

Along with that, no matter who remains from the rotation, I will hope (all we really have is hope) that Matthews, Bradley, SWR and Abel take big enough steps forward that we can actually believe we could have a solid future rotation and that Festa has a smooth transition to the bullpen and eventually earns our Closer role (as there is currently NO ONE who possesses the talent to do so on the roster). 

Yup...I'm an addict.  And I'm addicted to HOPIUM.   

[Cory Engelhardt]

2 hours ago, IndyTwinsFan said:

Sidebar note.  It appears as though there may be one less suitor for Joe Ryan. 

It appears as though the Red Sox have just acquired former Twin Sonny Gray from the Cards to fill their starter hole.

Not sure if that means much in the big picture, but it certainly could.

There is still like 8 more legit teams even if Boston is out. And they don’t have to trade him. I’m not at all convinced that Boston would have given the best offer for him anyway

[dxpavelka]

Drives me crazy.  Folks like you saying that if either Ryan or Lopez is traded they are throwing in the towel.  On the other hand surrounded by rubes insisting that they MUST trade one or both.  I'd keep them.  The biggest weakness they created by all the folks they moved at the deadline was the bullpen. Bullpen can also be the easiest weakness to fix, if done right, which, they have proven on more than one occasion they can do.  

[DocBauer]

I think the OP pretty much hits the nail on the head. Just a couple small moves so far for an OK pen arm with SOME potential, and an inexpensive backup catcher with a good defensive reputation, a little power, and that would be just fine if he can hit around .200 give or take. No other moves or hints of potential moves at this point. 

I'm really not trying to be optimistic here, but a few points that keep rattling around in my head:

1] The Twins have generally moved slowly to begin the offseason and let the bigger names move on that they weren't in on anyway.

2] While I don't put much faith in "management speak", Falvey has stated more than a few times he wants to keep Lopez and Ryan and made additions, not subtractions. He may be a lot of things, but I don't recall Falvey ever saying something that was actually a lie. 

3] Even last season, when payroll was looking to be in the low $120 range, Joe...or someone within ownership...made a push and the FO had an extra $15M or so to spend. Now, that $ came in rather late, maybe too late to do much good, but it gave the FO a little more room to at least made some additions. Final opening day payroll was between $138-142M depending on what site you read.

4] The history of this FO has been to set a FLOOR for the team and then make changes and additions. 

5] Shelton has alluded to conversations on his hiring about a direction for the team. Illusions and lies? Or promises about about at least a "decent" payroll projection?

Again, I'm NOT blowing optimistic smoke at anyone. But these are facts to consider at this point with the minority owners yet to be ratified, questions remaining about the actual payroll, and past history of operation. 

Maybe the payroll is a flabbergasting and inexcusable $100-110M. And maybe it's actually going to be $120-125M or so. (Can't believe we'd be asked to be overjoyed by that). We just don't know yet.

Was Larnach kept for the purpose of establishing a FLOOR for now with intent to try to move him for SOMETHING? That's my bet, but we'll see. Post arbitration, WITH Larnach, the roster sits about $90M. I want to say it's Fangraphs, but they project around $96M because they automatically add about $6M for 8 projected roster additions for the season due to injuries. That's fine. But I like to look at the ACTUAL opening day roster as opposed to possible projections. Add an extra $1M for Jackson, and we're still only $86M ish without Larnach, $91 ish with him for now.

But IF Ryan and Lopez are there opening day, that's a good thing and it would mean the payroll was probably pushed a little, even though they are PART of that $86-91M payroll number. Larnach moved for WHATEVER, TBD, takes it down to around $86M again.

IMO, any mention of Clemens as a "value addition" to the 2025 team and a possible 1B option is "management speak" for a base FLOOR. We've heard and seen this previously over the years.

How about Nathaniel Lowe as a 1B option...who's quietly had a solid career...for $8-10M? Maybe 2yrs at $16-20M to settle 1B for the immediate future while other prospects FINALLY start to transition to 1B for the long term? He doesn't have to be platooned, and Clemens can be a LH power bat off the bench at 4 and maybe 5 spots.

DO the Twins move Prielipp to the pen, at least for 2026? I'm slowly adapting to that idea. And maybe Funderburk has actually turned a corner. But how about Coulombe, Rogers, Chaffin, or Thielbar on a 1yr $3-4M for added, veteran depth? IDK who right now from the RH side because the list is long, but how about ONE RH option for around $4-5M that is of the Romero type for a veteran add for additional stability as the younger conversion prospects get time?

Those very simple, logical, potentially helpful moves cost, at most, about $19M. You don't need a calculator to say WITH Larnach the payroll is STILL only $110M. Larnach moved, we're looking at a rough $105M. While that number is still grossly and aggressively low, it STILL allows for a very solid 1B and a pair of veteran RP to help stabilize the INF, the lineup, and a rebuilt bullpen.

More numbers to drive you crazy? The projected payroll numbers proposed have $800K FILLERS for those 3 spots currently. So you can actually subtract another $2.4M off of that total payroll number. That, and maybe a couple $K more might bring in someone like Falefa, for example, as a veteran utility player who can at least cover SS on an occasional basis until K-Pepper is ready.

Regardless of Falvey having no or little understanding of the ACTUAL payroll he has to work with, EVEN a 2026 payroll of $120M could STILL ALLOW the addition of a solid 1B and a pair of veteran pen arms to help in the rebuild of the bullpen for 2026.

It's absolutely RIDICULOUS we have to be talking about a $120M payroll as a good thing. BUT, as the OP states, there are 3 primary reasons to realize if ownership gives a DAMN or not. And if they actually DO the 3 things presented, even with a BS payroll that I don't believe in, at $120M-ish, with talent on hand, prospects ready to debut, interesting arms converting, and a few solid additions as laid out, I can see a fun team to watch that offers an actual competitive chance to reach the playoffs and show hope for the future.

If we DON'T see these so easy, so obvious moves made, then we are facing a massive rebuild. And again, sarcastically, we know how easy those are.

[Parfigliano]

5 hours ago, karcherd said:

The situation at 1B is no different than last year, Falvey has basically annointed Clemens as the starter the same as he did last year with France after signing him to a $1m contract.  I would be very surprised if they sign any additional resources for 1B.  Even a RH platoon if they don't play another position would  be a poor use of roster resources. 

But the same point still applies to as it does to every other post, we do not know the direction the Twins want to go.  But when they keep players like Gasper, Kriedler and Fitzgerald on the 40 man and take the risk of exposing of other prospects to the rule 5, it is not a good start.  And they do not have young players on the 40 man, they are mostly a collection of players in their late 20's who have had minimal success if any at the major league level.  I hope they do something to show us some reason to watch this season.

I will watch.  I have a strong feeling I won't be seeing much winning.

[stringer bell]

There's roster imbalance here. The 40-man roster and upper minors have a lot of starting pitchers and corner outfielders. They lack even a mid-tier first baseman as well as infield depth and have at this point a bare-bones bullpen. Trading a starter and a corner OF or two to fill the large holes on the roster would seem to be in order.

IMHO, whether they intend to contend this year or not, parting with one of their two top starting pitchers (Ryan or Lopez) in order to add talent without adding payroll is the right thing to do at this point. I think we'll see how complete the rebuild is by seeing what the return is for established players like Ryan, Lopez, Jeffers and perhaps Buxton. If the return is principally high-upside young guys, it's a "tear it down" rebuild, if the return is major-league guys then the front office thinks they can contend within the next 18 months.

I'm an old guy. I'd like to see them competitive before I'm a really old guy, so I hope the turnover is not drastic. However, I think it's much tougher to sell off as much as they already have and try to be a post-season team within a year or two.  

[Doctor Wu]

9 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Drives me crazy.  Folks like you saying that if either Ryan or Lopez is traded they are throwing in the towel.  On the other hand surrounded by rubes insisting that they MUST trade one or both.  I'd keep them.  The biggest weakness they created by all the folks they moved at the deadline was the bullpen. Bullpen can also be the easiest weakness to fix, if done right, which, they have proven on more than one occasion they can do.  

All this talk of trading both pitchers is driving me crazy too! Unless there really IS a desperate need to reduce payroll, they should keep both pitchers and try to field a winning team this coming season. That said, I think they SHOULD try and trade Ryan, but only to get an impact bat and/or some better arms for the bullpen. Other than that, I'm still convinced we are in some sort of rebuild mode. 

[Doctor Wu]

... career journeyman Kody Clemens, who had some nice moments but wasn’t the kind of player a contending team wants to have in the lineup every day.

That succinctly says it. Clemens was a fun story last year, but if we are heading into next season with him as our starting first baseman, then that shows this team is not serious about contending.

[TJSweens]

The Twins have already made their plans for next year crystal clear. They didn't telegraph it because it costs money to send a telegram. They used drums to spread the word instead.

The Twins are going to man positions with recent trade acquisitions, current personnel under team control and free agent left overs while the studs get some AAA reps. Once the season is far enough to prevent super 2 status down the road, the Twins will start calling them up. 

Joe Ryan will be offered a team friendly deal that buys out his first two years of free agency. If he declines, he will be gone by the deadline. Pablo is as good as gone.

See? I didn't need to watch any positions as an indicator.

[mluebker]

I’m assuming that until the Pohlads can sell the team, they aren’t going to try to contend, nor will they fully commit to rebuilding. Any changes they make will be made to keep them competitive enough to be nominally profitable, and not a dime more. Kind of baseball purgatory, where all we can do is pray for something different.