3 Positions That Will Telegraph Minnesota Twins' Intentions in 2026

[jorgenswest]

I agree on the three but I think they point to different intentions.

Firstbase

I think this is more a commitment to look for upside from with in as opposed to a short term attempt at a fix. I suppose does show their intention not to make a big commitment.

For some reason we are fixated with Clemens as the only option at 1B. There is some reason for optimism that he can produce at a median level for first baseman next year give his xwOBA and statcast contact numbers. He may be the first to get a shot but unlike a one year free agent they won’t be as motivated to stick with him. Roden has played first baseman and has very strong minor league numbers. Julien contact numbers were much closer to 2023 than 2024. Maybe new voices in the clubhouse will clear his head so he can go up to the plate more freely. I can see both Jenkins and Rodriguez ready soon this year. If that happens they can move Martin to 2B and Keaschall to 1B with Clemens as a really good fit behind them. Since Sano in 2021 they have rotated through one year fixes at 1B. Perhaps they intend to stop that revolving door and find a longer term solution among the players they control.

Bullpen

Could this be a commitment to the arms of the many starters early in their careers? Abel, Bradley, Woods Richardson, Festa and Matthews do not need more time pitching against AAA batters. Prielipp probably doesn’t either. Right now there appears to be space for two of them in the rotation. Give Raya a chance to earn a spot in the spring. The intention is next year at this time the bullpen isn’t a need.

Ryan and Lopez

Moving either will certainly telegraph their intentions.

Lopez would be their intention to reduce the payroll over winning and helping to develop their young arms. His return will not be elite. He doesn’t have enough excess value. They would need to wait until the free agents find homes to get the better return.

Ryan would show their intention to lose more games this season in the hopes of having a better chance at acquiring a future impact prospect. A player that will transition to the majors this year or next and then put in the work to be all star caliber as they get to their arbitration years.

These are all key decisions but they telegraph very different things.

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

For some reason we are fixated with Clemens as the only option at 1B. There is some reason for optimism that he can produce at a median level for first baseman next year 

Across the majors first basemen OPSed .754 in 2025.  Ten teams achieved .800.  The Twins were near the bottom with .678.  It's hard to emphasize strongly enough how much of a leap is needed by them to achieve merely relevance at the position, and how much of a drag on the offense it is when an offense-first position is undermanned.

Ty France contributed most of the PA with a .685 OPS, but Kody was next highest in PA there and amassed a remarkably similar .684 OPS.  (Remarkably, Edouard Julien led the at the position with an OPS of .705.)

In his age-30 season it's a poor bet looking for an uptick from Clemens.  He's not part of the solution.  He's part of the problem. 

[jorgenswest]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

Across the majors first basemen OPSed .754 in 2025.  Ten teams achieved .800.  The Twins were near the bottom with .678.  It's hard to emphasize strongly enough how much of a leap is needed by them to achieve merely relevance at the position, and how much of a drag on the offense it is when an offense-first position is undermanned.

Ty France contributed most of the PA with a .685 OPS, but Kody was next highest in PA there and amassed a remarkably similar .684 OPS.  (Remarkably, Edouard Julien led the at the position with an OPS of .705.)

In his age-30 season it's a poor bet looking for an uptick from Clemens.  He's not part of the solution.  He's part of the problem. 

Every game next year matters to me so there is some reservation not going with the one year plan at first base.

I can see a 2027 with Culpepper, Jenkins, Rodriguez and Gonzalez. I think that happens with Keaschall at first and Martin at second. I don’t want to delay that transition. In defense of both Clemens and Julien I think they have two things going for them that give some hope and at least worthwhile of a shot before the Keaschall transition takes place. Player generally improve in their first 1500 plate appearances facing major league pitching. Neither is close and should still be growing with more exposure to major league pitching. Of course that growth is a roller coaster of adjustments. I also trust xwOBA to be a better predictor for the future than OPS. Both Clemens and Julien were just above the average xwOBA for a first basemen last year. Maybe one of them steps up and keeps the job. Another option is Roden who is one of their few outfielders who can also play first base. He really hit well in AAA and if there is opportunity at first base he also has a chance to take the position and keep it. Short of trading for a Contreras or signing a guy like Naylor I would rather go with one of them as opposed to the one year vet in his thirties.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Keeping Lopez/Ryan at this point only makes sense if the Twins are going to make at least some sort of effort to compete. Their trade value will only go down as time goes on. Trading them this offseason will at least give them compensation for these two.

Everyone and their Grandma knows that the team has no intention of investing payroll dollars for 2026. Fan perception, along with local and national media opinions, really can't get any lower for this team. They might as well blow it up, flounder through 2026, see what the new Labor Agreement looks like, and go from there.

I would not be shocked to see this team hold back all of their top prospects this year for service time management reasons.

[stringer bell]

I think Keaschall is part of the Twins future for at least the rest of the decade. I would like to see if he can cut it as a second baseman before handing him a first baseman's mitt. He's got good speed, which should translate to good range and I think with work he can become a decent or better defender at second. He hasn't had typical rehab from TJ surgery because of subsequent injuries. Maybe moving Martin back into the infield is a good idea and really the only position he can play on the dirt. 

Finding a first baseman should be a priority in the coming year and perhaps bringing Roden in from the outfield could be the answer. Regardless, having a right handed hitter to be a DH/1B makes sense.