Road to a Rebound: Royce Lewis

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

August 18th, 2024. It's a date that lives in infamy for Twins fans — the moment it all started falling apart for the team. Jorge Alcala imploded on the mound in Texas, blowing a four-run lead, and a collapse ensued for Minnesota that hasn't really stopped since. 

You can also trace the downfall of Royce Lewis back to this date pretty much exactly. In that same 6-5 loss against the Rangers, he snapped a seven-game hitting streak (striking out in a pinch-hit appearance), and thus his own unceasing performance spiral began. Lewis entered play that day with a .970 OPS; he slashed .182/.224/.250 the rest of the way to finish with a .747 OPS. 

Lewis homered 32 times in career 463 plate appearances prior to the 8/18/24 dividing line, an average of one home run per every 15 trips. Since then he has gone deep 14 times in 546 PA, or once every 39. At his best Lewis elevated the Twins as a team to new heights — their first playoff success in 20 years — and at his worst he's been one of the chief culprits in their collective descent. 

Can the former top draft pick go back to being an asset instead of an anchor?

The Fear Factor
As Lewis found his footing in the major leagues, between injuries, he began to distinguish himself as a hitter who inspired fear in opposing pitchers. Make a mistake and that thing is going over the fence. The pressure on pitchers to tread carefully helped Lewis draw walks at a decent rate, despite the fact that he will never be confused with a patient hitter. In 2023 he walked at a respectable 8.4% clip, and in 2024 a nearly identical 8.6%.

 

What really tells the story of Lewis' drop-off, in my mind, is how much the fear factor has evaporated for opposing pitchers. By the end of the 2025 season, no one was remotely afraid to come into the zone against Royce.

After his last and only multi-walk game of the season on August 17th, Lewis drew three walks (against 40 strikeouts) in 146 plate appearances, including just one in the entire month of September. Whereas coming over the plate against Lewis used to be a death sentence, pitchers now felt confident that he'd whiff or put a weak swing on the ball, and their confidence was well warranted outside of one random Monday night in Anaheim.

Now it's Twins fans who are afraid — afraid that the aggregated impact of Lewis' string of serious injuries has taken a physical toll, fundamentally and permanently lowering his ability to produce. Fortunately, there were some promising signs in his late-season performance that serve to quell such concerns somewhat.

Healthy at Last ... With a Payoff Yet to Come?
You wouldn't know it from his stats or swing results, but by simply watching him on the field, it seemed quite evident that during the final stretch of 2025, Lewis was in as good of a place physically as he's been in a long time. The poor showing at the plate was offset by levels of sharpness in the field and speed on the bases that many thought were gone for good. 

At third base, he was steady and made a handful of exceptional plays. He also stole 11 bags on 12 attempts in his final 34 games. The same guy who, not long ago, found himself jogging the bases out of desperation to keep injuries at bay was routinely cutting loose and swiping them at will. I don't know how you can look at the development and not feel encouraged.

It didn't translate to offensive production, for the most part. Lewis' plate approach and swing remained out of sorts right up through the end of the season. But a broken swing is much easier to fix than a broken body, and he finished on an unprecedented run of good health, appearing in all but two of Minnesota's 77 games after the start of July. This offseason he has the opportunity focus more on his game than physical maintenance.

Open Up the Swing, Unlock Results
I'm far from a hitting expert, but when I take a cursory dive deeper into Lewis' metrics, a couple of (possibly related) things stick out: he's getting dominated by fastballs and has become overly fixated on pulling the ball.

In 2023, Lewis batted .327 and slugged .800 against four-seam fastballs, whiffing at just 20%. In 2025, he batted .181 with a .333 slugging percentage and whiffed on 31.2% of four-seamers. Lewis had a .344 OBA this year against breaking balls compared to .267 against fastballs. 

This matches the eye test. Lewis struggles to get around on velocity, and hopes for a hanging pitch he can turn on. Such examples accounted for a majority of his 2025 home runs, all of which landed left of center and most of which were straight-up yanked.

 

Pull power will always be Lewis' specialization when at his best, but he needs to recapture his ability to handle heaters and drive certain pitches the other way. It's a fairly straightforward mandate but undoubtedly a much more challenging and complex matter to execute.

 

There are a lot of uncertainties in play. Who will be his manager and hitting coach? Will he even be in a Twins uniform next year? Time will tell, but a little uncertainty and shaking things up could prove beneficial for Lewis as he looks to resurrect his wayward career at age 26, three years out from free agency.

Explore previous entries in the "Road to a Rebound" series: Brooks Lee

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[Doctor Wu]

Pull power will always be Lewis' specialization when at his best, but he needs to recapture his ability to handle heaters and drive certain pitches the other way. It's a fairly straightforward mandate but undoubtedly a much more challenging and complex matter to execute.

I have no idea what it will take for Lewis to rediscover his mojo, but your analysis seems to be a pretty accurate one. I still think he CAN be a major contributor, if not an all-star. He certainly has the ability, and I think he still has the desire to make it happen. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

It truly will come down to him in my opinion. IF he can get back to even 80% of what he was in 2023 in to 2024, then they are a different team next year. 

[old nurse]

Yup, better contact, go the other way, more barrels,, walk more, strikeout less, better this or that from the metrics. Pretty much the problem with any hitter,. Just do it says Nike  easier said than done 

[LeatherAntenna]

24 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Yup, better contact, go the other way, more barrels,, walk more, strikeout less, better this or that from the metrics. Pretty much the problem with any hitter,. Just do it says Nike  easier said than done 

I’ll just be happy and claim a Lewis victory if he makes it injury free to first or second  base on the first hit he gets in 2026.

[Whitey333]

Just another can't miss prospects that will likely miss.  He. Like Buxton, shows flashes of excellence and bigger flashes of ineptitude.  Buxton had a great "full" season even though he missed 36 games.  But it took Buxton 10 years to get there.  We can't wait that long for Lewis.  And now we will likely be getting a new hitting coach to further mess him up.  In addition he whines a lot publicly about his time with the Twins.  I say it's time to cut bait from Lewis.

 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Lewis is probably the player with the widest window of potential outcomes on the team.  At his best, he is an impact bat, but at his worst, as he was in much 2025, he is just barely playable.  I’m a little (not overwhelmingly) optimistic on Royce Lewis, mostly due to his improved defense at 3B and his burst of speed at the end of the season.  Those factors indicate a guy who is healthier, and more importantly trusts his legs, which is something that he obviously didn’t do in 2024 and in most of 2025.  

With Lewis, I see a glimmer of hope.  Unfortunately with several others on the team, I don’t see that at all.  

[mike8791]

Speaking to a hitting coach who knows Lewis, the explanation of his decline was his resistance to change.  Now this could be a biased, self-serving analysis by this coach(who has worked with many major leaguers since his retirement from MLB), but his inability to adjust after a whirlwind start makes one wonder if his falloff is not so much physical as mental.  He certainly wouldn't be the first Twin phenom to flame out this way ala Julien, Miranda, Wallner, etc.

Main hope is with his physical improvement he will be better able to adapt to changes in pitching strategies.  If I were a betting man, I would bet against him.  Better to find a trade partner willing to take a chance on his rebounding. 

[tony&rodney]

It sure seems like something is amiss within the Twins organization. Whether it is those who ultimately make decisions, the people who evaluate and make recommendations, the coaches, the manager, or the player it is really tough to know much less pinpoint. Clearly, communication is less than ideal.

Royce Lewis is among a handful of players who have found the rigors of adjustment at the major league level too tough to overcome, if one looks at play from the close of 2023 to now. There have been brief moments, but all of Julien, Wallner, and Lewis have stalled, at least for now.

I was encouraged by an increase in speed and flexibility shown by Royce late last season. Perhaps full health plays a large roll in success going forward. I did notice how pitchers pounded the strike zone though, which is a sign that his bat no longer is feared.

The necessary adjustments could be just around the corner, but those may also need to be with another team. Like several other players, the Twins should be casting a wide net to find whether a team places value in Lewis to a degree where such club is willing to offer a reasonable player in trade. Would a Lewis to Seattle for Harry Ford work?

Absent an exchange for a useful player, the Twins will need to hope Lewis can forget all of his past disappointments and struggles. The guy who stubbornly, maybe out of frustration, attempted to pull every pitch in September is not a winner. A peaceful, reflective offseason may put Royce Lewis back on track. Perhaps his final three years ('27-'28) can be what the Twins, Lewis, and fans hoped for since 2017. We all would like to see Royce Lewis reach his full perceived talent in a Twins uniform. I hope we do. 

[Doctor Gast]

Lewis put in too many short seasons prior to '24. So, putting in a career PA season, he simply ran out of gas. Confidence is one of Lewis's strong points; being weak in body & spirit, Lewis was vulnerable. Media & fans jumped all over Lewis's statement that, "he doesn't do slumps". Them making a big deal of this, plus Baldelli wanted him to move across the field, got into his head, screwed this young man up & destroyed his confidence. Desperate, he listened to everything that they told him. He was lost & pitchers took advantage of it. After the deadline, he rightfully decided to return to his natural swing. He got positive results right away but isn't 100%. I'm positive he'll  get back to his potential if handled properly.

[Otaknam]

It would be silly for the Twins to “cut bait” with Lewis, as was suggested. They wouldn’t get much in a trade right now, he’s still pretty young, and there is no better option for third base. What I saw from Lewis in 2025 was Miguel Sano syndrome, an attempt to pull everything, which resulted in him flailing away at sweepers he would miss by ten inches. But baseball players can bounce back from a down season, and we have seen what Lewis can do when healthy and locked in. So he’s at third for 2026. For a realistically competitive team Lewis would be a concern. But this team has a lot of more immediate concerns than Lewis, despite his poor season. Rebuild a bullpen, better hitting with RISP, improve defense, productive seasons from Wallner, Larnach, Jeffers, and young players making the jump to the bigs.

[sweetmusicviola16]

20 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Lewis put in too many short seasons prior to '24. So, putting in a career PA season, he simply ran out of gas. Confidence is one of Lewis's strong points; being weak in body & spirit, Lewis was vulnerable. Media & fans jumped all over Lewis's statement that, "he doesn't do slumps". Them making a big deal of this, plus Baldelli wanted him to move across the field, got into his head, screwed this young man up & destroyed his confidence. Desperate, he listened to everything that they told him. He was lost & pitchers took advantage of it. After the deadline, he rightfully decided to return to his natural swing. He got positive results right away but isn't 100%. I'm positive he'll  get back to his potential if handled properly.

The key to Royce's future is staying healthy and injury free. If this happens I believe he'll be the player he has the potential to be. I realize that this is a big if at this point because history tells a lot. I've read many many trade Royce Lewis comments. I'm not in that camp. I have zero interest in trading a guy  for next to nothing who has the potential of Lewis. Even if he doesn't kick the injury bug, the 60-70  games he plays will be better than the nothing players you receive back for him.

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, mike8791 said:

Speaking to a hitting coach who knows Lewis, the explanation of his decline was his resistance to change.

That tracks with his pouting about being asked to play 2B last year. He seems like an uncoachable ego. 

[NYCTK]

39 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

...plus Baldelli wanted him to move across the field, got into his head, screwed this young man up & destroyed his confidence...

So he's an incredibly fragile ego. 

[tony&rodney]

44 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

It would be silly for the Twins to “cut bait” with Lewis, as was suggested. They wouldn’t get much in a trade right now

I believe every Twins fan hopes that Royce Lewis rebounds. We don't know, at all, how another team values Lewis. A losing dysfunctional team, such as the 2025 MN Twins, needs to consider all avenues for improvement. Finally, you do realize that the argument of low value has been used every year on players ..... Miranda, Julien, etc. and now Lewis, Wallner, and so forth. Any opportunity to improve the roster needs consideration.

[PatPfund]

Lewis was the most visible sign of the Baldelli regime going off the tracks. It really isn't a surprise Lewis was better defensively this year; it was the first time he was actually healthy and played one spot since he came to the majors. The stupid/butchered Baldelli 2B move (stupid because we didn't really have anyone clamoring to take over 3B and Lewis had already been injured once playing out of position; butchered because Rocco claimed taking practice there was just to see, then he put Lewis there in a game on short notice) wrecked the relationship, which clearly extended into not even trusting the hitting coach this season. Hopefully the Twins hire someone who mixes active connection and accountability, because almost any scenario I can think of for team success depends on getting Royce back on track.

[theBOMisthebomb]

I'm going with the baseball gods smote Royce when he bragged on June 20, 2024, about how he doesn't "do that slump thing".  

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Lewis is probably the player with the widest window of potential outcomes on the team.  At his best, he is an impact bat, but at his worst, as he was in much 2025, he is just barely playable.  I’m a little (not overwhelmingly) optimistic on Royce Lewis, mostly due to his improved defense at 3B and his burst of speed at the end of the season.  Those factors indicate a guy who is healthier, and more importantly trusts his legs, which is something that he obviously didn’t do in 2024 and in most of 2025.  

With Lewis, I see a glimmer of hope.  Unfortunately with several others on the team, I don’t see that at all.  

I have more hope with Martin than Lewis. 😉

Seriously, the first round picks that Team is leaning on for ‘26 (expectations), obviously, Buxton……. but it may be Martin - Lewis - Lee in descending order …….. that’s a lot different than everyone thought at beginning of ‘24. Lee too, is nearly unplayable for big stretches of time………as you state, at least Lewis has seemed to recapture a bunch of his athleticism. Not sure how much there ever was for Lee?

[GNess]

As is common for a major re-build such that the Twins are conducting players improving their performance is crucial. Unfortunately, it is a huge challenge for so many players to do so:

Lewis, Lee, Wallner/Larnach, Julien, Abel, Matthews, Festa, Sands et al. 

But I agree with many posters - Lewis is by far the most impactful if the Twins are to be competitive.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

23 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I have more hope with Martin than Lewis. 😉

Seriously, the first round picks that Team is leaning on for ‘26 (expectations), obviously, Buxton……. but it may be Martin - Lewis - Lee in descending order …….. that’s a lot different than everyone thought at beginning of ‘24. Lee too, is nearly unplayable for big stretches of time………as you state, at least Lewis has seemed to recapture a bunch of his athleticism. Not sure how much there ever was for Lee?

I might agree with you, but I don't think his ceiling is as high.  I think his best outcome is very good regular.  I think Royce's is probably still star player -- but the certainty is much less at the moment.  Lewis. . . well, I'm actually just hoping for playable.  I don't think his ceiling is much at all.  He may be a "smart" player, but I just don't really think he has the tools and athleticism to become anything more than a stopgap at shortstop or anywhere else.  

[DJL44]

Use the whole field. Easier said, than done.

[BillyBallLives]

4 hours ago, LeatherAntenna said:

I’ll just be happy and claim a Lewis victory if he makes it injury free to first or second  base on the first hit he gets in 2026.

Kudos for some classic sarcasm....there's always a hint of truth in it. 

[Nshore]

If ever there was a guy the Twins should stay the course on, it's Lewis.  He looks out of sorts at bat - often lunging at the ball.  But it seems like something that experience and a good hitting coach can improve.  And he looks better in the field.  

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

The key to Royce's future is staying healthy and injury free. If this happens I believe he'll be the player he has the potential to be. I realize that this is a big if at this point because history tells a lot. I've read many many trade Royce Lewis comments. I'm not in that camp. I have zero interest in trading a guy  for next to nothing who has the potential of Lewis. Even if he doesn't kick the injury bug, the 60-70  games he plays will be better than the nothing players you receive back for him.

I believe his biggest injuries is behind him. His soft tissue injuries will get better. Giving up on Lewis is being very short-sighted.

[bean5302]

I think there's an issue with the front office and management at play here. Lewis has clearly been unhappy for a while. If you don't believe your employer has your back and best interests at heart, wouldn't you be resistent to their input? Buy-in is critical, and nobody gets buy-in from their employees without making it clear how the adjustments are going to benefit the employee.

Lewis' comments have suggested to me he doesn't trust the team, and he doesn't believe they're putting him in a spot to be successful. It reads like he's turtling up to protect his own future. 

In regard to who he is, I think a lot of what Royce will be able to do depends on whether or not he's finally able to put those ACLs and leg injuries behind him. Where he's not playing hurt or scared of aggravating injuries at the plate or on the base paths.

[DocBauer]

I love your work Nick, and I appreciate this article, but this has become the 3rd article since the Twins season ended where Lewis is the primary topic. (Sigh). But I guess it's probably warranted considering he's a bit of a lightening rod in regard to 2026 and the future.

THE BAD:

A pair of knee injuries and a number of soft tissue injuries have messed up some of his projection and performance, not to mention availability. And from August of 2024 to around July of 2025 he was simply BAD.

THE GOOD:

He played the most games of his career in 2025 and was basically healthy from around July through the remainder of the season. He was around league average as a hitter from that time on. The number of games played is a positive. Being at least league average for 3 months is a positive. Suddenly feeling good enough to run and steal some bases is a positive.

THE "COME ON":

When do we stop nit picking every comment Lewis ever makes? For the UPTEENTH TIME, he NEVER refused to play 2B. Paraphrasing a bit, he stated he didn't want to move mid season for fear of making an embarrassing mistake, or more, and cost the Twins a game. In fact, he worked out at 2B this past offseason to get ready to play some 2B in 2025. It was the Twins who told him to forget it, and just concentrate on 3B when ST began.

He sometimes is too open and honest with some of his responses. Frustrated and struggling, he makes comments about changing his batting approach mid year and how it might affect him. Honest? Yes. Accurate? Probably so. Never should have been said? Absolutely. 

He's never thrown anyone under the bus, or pouted, or refused to play 2B. Nor has anyone else ever stated he's a malcontent or a bad teammate. The only thing I've ever seen him being guilty of is a mouth that moves before he thinks sometimes, and shares thoughts he should probably just keep to himself.

PROJECTION:

Royce made a really vulnerable confession last season that all of his previous injuries had him feeling uncomfortable and unbalanced at the plate. Again, some paraphrasing here. And I believe he was brought back in 2025 too early from his ST injury.

He worked hard the last offseason with a trusted physical therapist to avoid the soft tissue injuries that have been plaguing him. While he didn't escape ST without injury, was probably brought back too soon, he did escape injury the remainder of the season.

Again, he was at least better the final 3 months, and the fact that he was running...successfully...would seem to indicate a re-newed sense of health and confidence.

What he needs to do this offseason is CONTINUE work on flexibility to avoid those nagging soft tissue injuries that have plagued him since his 2 knee injuries, and body changes. But he also needs to find a stance, approach, to be comfortable at the plate to get closer to his old self and work on the issues that have been present as pointed out in Nick's OP.

He may not be the Superman hoped for, or flashed over the previous couple of seasons, but at 26yo with a lot of talent still in his young body, it's really about continuing to make adjustments. 

By all accounts he is a very hard worker and had generally maintained a positive attitude despite a vast number of setbacks. He might not be what we all hoped for, but I'm betting we see a real re-surgance from Lewis in 2026. There's just too much ability and determination to bet against him.

[laloesch]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I think there's an issue with the front office and management at play here. Lewis has clearly been unhappy for a while. If you don't believe your employer has your back and best interests at heart, wouldn't you be resistent to their input? Buy-in is critical, and nobody gets buy-in from their employees without making it clear how the adjustments are going to benefit the employee.

Lewis' comments have suggested to me he doesn't trust the team, and he doesn't believe they're putting him in a spot to be successful. It reads like he's turtling up to protect his own future. 

In regard to who he is, I think a lot of what Royce will be able to do depends on whether or not he's finally able to put those ACLs and leg injuries behind him. Where he's not playing hurt or scared of aggravating injuries at the plate or on the base paths.

That may be true but he's also hurting his future chances at a big contract if he continues this "turtling up" stuff.  I think the league adjusted to him and found his weaknesses once they got enough exposure to him.  He needs to adapt and make his own adjustments or he's never gonna be more than a utility infielder at best.  HIs whining to the media doesn't look good either.  I don't really care what the employee / employer interaction is between him and the Twin's front office, from an outsider's perspective.  Besides there's nothing either one of us can do about that. 

Simply put he either makes adjustments and produce, or he doesn't and is out of the league in a few years.  Correa was the same way in 2025.  All bark and no bite.  Gotta produce.  Buxton surprised me greatly this year.  I didn't think he had it in him after all these injuries shortened season where he was erratic at the plate at best.  Lewis has a lot to prove in 2026.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

I believe his biggest injuries is behind him. His soft tissue injuries will get better. Giving up on Lewis is being very short-sighted.

Is anyone giving up on him being on the roster and hoping he's good? Anyone?

[KirbyDome89]

36 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I think there's an issue with the front office and management at play here. Lewis has clearly been unhappy for a while. If you don't believe your employer has your back and best interests at heart, wouldn't you be resistent to their input? Buy-in is critical, and nobody gets buy-in from their employees without making it clear how the adjustments are going to benefit the employee.

Lewis' comments have suggested to me he doesn't trust the team, and he doesn't believe they're putting him in a spot to be successful. It reads like he's turtling up to protect his own future. 

In regard to who he is, I think a lot of what Royce will be able to do depends on whether or not he's finally able to put those ACLs and leg injuries behind him. Where he's not playing hurt or scared of aggravating injuries at the plate or on the base paths.

Without a doubt there are plenty of points to criticize this FO and/or management group, but I wouldn't include a lack of support for Lewis on the list of indictments. Buy in isn't unilateral, and Lewis being unhappy isn't necessarily an indicator of mistreatment. Royce's performance over the last 1.5 seasons has, for the most part, been brutal, yet he was a lineup fixture. 

What has the Twins org done to cause offense? Ask Royce to play 2B short term while making a desperate attempt to salvage the 2024 season? The next day he whined about not wanting to play there, and the team immediately obliged without remark. Pinch hit for him during a late game situation while he was in the midst of an awful stretch of baseball? Again, Lewis complained about having to look over his shoulder while being allowed a leash no other players short of established stars could even come close to matching. Provide him with potential swing/mechanical fixes during the season? Royce cited concern about attempted changes affecting his future earnings, while being a black hole in the lineup. I mean....

I agree that there's a self preservation aspect at play, but I think it's mostly just immaturity protecting a bruised ego at this point. 

[NYCTK]

39 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

When do we stop nit picking every comment Lewis ever makes? For the UPTEENTH TIME, he NEVER refused to play 2B.

He publicly commented to the media about how he was terrified and didn't want to play 2B. 

If this was someone like Gallo, or Clemens, or any other outsider, you would rightfully be criticizing him. If your team needs you to play 2B, you play 2B. What does it say about a player that he's saying to the media "If you take a baby out of its crib where it's safe, it's going to feel a little bit scared". 

He's right though, he sounds like a massive baby.