If the Minnesota Twins Fire Rocco Baldelli, What Can Fans Expect?

[Eric Blonigen]

Image courtesy of © Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

 

In a recent fan survey in The Athletic, more than 5,000 respondents were asked to assign blame for the Twins' collapse in back-to-back seasons. According to readers, the three primary culprits were ownership (78.7% of responses), the front office (11.1%), and the hitters (7.3%). Manager Rocco Baldelli ranked fourth, with just 2.4% feeling he’s the biggest factor in the Twins’ struggles.

And yet, in Cody Christie’s evaluation of Rocco’s standing amongst the best managers in Twins history, the overwhelming sentiment in the comments section is some version of “Fire Rocco.” While this disconnect is interesting, and worthy of analysis, this piece is going to examine what history tells us could come as a result of implementing a new manager for the 2026 season. 

First, though, it’s important to be cognizant that the Twins picked up Baldelli’s 2026 option. An organization that just fired 80% of its scouting department, supposedly in a cost-saving measure, is unlikely to want to pay two managers a couple million dollars each for a season. 

But, it’s clear change is needed to try to jumpstart the team before we as fans are forced to write off yet another season. Maybe a new manager would accomplish this very thing. But why? What would it accomplish? And would it really help the Twins win more games next season?

Often, changing managers is more about tone than approach. Replacing a players’ manager with a disciplinarian can focus attention on the message and create a culture of accountability for one’s actions, level of play, and even the decisions made in individual at bats. Similarly, replacing a “red ass” with a players’ manager can provide the mental and emotional support players may benefit from as they strive to deal with adversity, make adjustments in real time, and develop on the fly. 

For the past several seasons, fans have largely perceived Rocco as a players’ manager, and also one that leads through analytics only. It’s probably true that his clubhouse became lax at times, and he was specific with his words during Spring Training, hinting that he may need to hold players more accountable. Has it worked? Not really. Still, perhaps it’s a question of authenticity. If Rocco is not truly a red-ass, then asking him to play one just may not work. Perhaps, a real one would accomplish what Baldelli has been unable to.

One final thing to note: it has been very important to this front office to take a modern, data-centric approach. They have specifically sought leaders that are able to translate date into the sort of accessible nuggets that players can digest, regardless of their aptitude and appetite for data and analytics. It’s clear that any manager going forward will likely make at least similar decisions to Baldelli, and ones that are similarly informed by analytics. So, the changes are more likely to be centered around how the manager interacts with the players and with the media. 

Still, if a new manager were to get similar results, then it would be apparent beyond a reasonable doubt that the respondents to the fan survey in The Athletic were correct, and the issue actually rests with the front office.

All of that said, irrespective of management styles, the first year, at least, of a new manager’s tenure does tend to feature a performance spike. Each of the past three Twins managerial changes have experienced notable, statistically significant jumps in win totals. 

Ron Gardenhire
Ron Gardenhire took over for Tom Kelly beginning with the 2002 season. In his first season, he won 94 games and the Twins reached the ALCS. This is coming off of a stretch in which Kelly led the Twins to eight losing seasons in nine years, before finally getting above .500 in his final season by finishing 85-77. Beginning with this nine-game bump, Gardy had five straight winning seasons to start his career, showing that a new voice (and of course, a young and promising core maturing) could make all the difference in the world.

Of course, things didn’t end well for Gardenhire. He was widely perceived to have let the game pass him by, and his loyalty to an inept coaching staff may have proven to be his downfall. From 2011-2014, his high-water mark was 70 wins. This led to his firing, and replacement by Paul Molitor.

Paul Molitor
Paul Molitor is a baseball legend, and the vibe at the time was that he would teach the Twins speed, defense, and work ethic. In 2015, his first season, the Twins saw a 13-game jump and finished 83-79. This was, of course, a Pyrrhic victory, as the following season the Twins experienced their Total System Failure season en route to losing 103 games.

2017 brought a slightly better than .500 record, and Molitor won Manager of the Year simply because of the improvement from terrible to mediocre. As it turns out, Molitor did not lead the team to sustained success, things were torn down, a new front office was brought in, and when the opportunity presented itself, Derek Falvey fired Molitor and replaced him with Rocco Baldelli.

Rocco Baldelli
In his first season as Twins manager, Baldelli led the 2019 Bomba Squad to a 101-win season as they set a record for most home runs in a season. This was a year-over-year improvement of 23 wins, and led to Baldelli being voted in as Manager of the Year. By his own admission, he didn’t have to do a ton of managing that season as the Twins scored So. Many. Runs. Fast forward, and Baldelli has a winning record in four of his seven seasons as Manager.

On average, the Twins have seen a 15-game jump in their win column each of the last three times they have changed managers. They are currently on pace to win 70.3 games headed into Friday’s opener against the Guardians. Speaking of the Guardians, they got a 16-game bump last year under new manager Stephen Vogt, who was replacing a World Series-winning Hall of Famer in Terry Francona. Sometimes, it's simply about bringing in a new voice. That doesn't assure anything, especially if the front office is resigned to rebuilding, but history shows it can make a difference.

Is it worth it, Twins fans, to chase the unknown in the hopes that next season, at least, could see a return to relevance even if the future beyond remains murky? I would love to hear from you

 

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[DJL44]

If they fire Rocco next year they will probably have Jayce Tingler finish the season 

[Vanimal46]

Fire Falvey and Baldelli. It’s really that simple. Anything less is prolonging the rebuild process. 

[The Great Hambino]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

If they fire Rocco next year they will probably have Jayce Tingler finish the season 

The fact that they didn't do that to finish this season tells me more than the contract option does (managers and coaches get fired all the time before their contracts are up) that Rocco is the opening day 2026 manager.  They had an opportunity at the trade deadline (as well as several other points in the season) to make the switch and give Tingler a real evaluation period - not necessarily evaluating by wins and losses (especially after The Purge), but in how the club operates overall.  To see how a different voice would be perceived by the team.  But because they passed on all those opportunities, I don't see why they would make a switch this offseason.

Not that I don't think they should make a switch (it's overdue), I just don't think they will.

[PP24]

I’m of the group that thinks changing managers won’t make a difference unless the front office changes. The front office and manager work as one. 

[tony&rodney]

Typically a floundering team will sack the manager as a means of turning bad fortunes into something better. The Twins made the decision to fire the players. Who knows what is next? The team is playing to its talent and experience level to some extent. Consistency from the front office would suggest another  4-7 trades are expected in the coming months. But, we are just guessing. Maybe Falvey now, once again, has his dream team.

Where does Rocco Baldelli fit? Supposedly that question has already been answered with his contract. Either way, the Twins need an infusion of talent for the roster.

The most confusing part of this entire FalVineDelli Era has been the style of baseball. After taking a scythe to the bullpen, suddenly the Twins are running and we even saw a bunt. Has anyone else noted that the outfielders seem to be hitting the cutoff more often? A few starting pitchers getting a batter or two to work through a jam?  Nah, it's just my imagination .... or is it? Has Baldelli decided to manage differently? The guys putting together the roster and running the game decisions are confusing for me.

I suspect a new owner (some day in the future, 1-3 years from now) will bring about a sweep of the front office and dugout management. Until that time arrives, I don't expect much to change. Alas.

[Ricky Vaughn]

They will just hire Rocco's twin. It may or may not give a bump, but the new hire will reflect Falvey's philosophy on what a manager should be.

[Permanent Twins Fan]

25 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

If they fire Rocco next year they will probably have Jayce Tingler finish the season 

If they fire Rocco, which I don't think they will, they will at least let him finish out the season

[The Great Hambino]

21 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The most confusing part of this entire FalVineDelli Era has been the style of baseball. After taking a scythe to the bullpen, suddenly the Twins are running and we even saw a bunt. Has anyone else noted that the outfielders seem to be hitting the cutoff more often? A few starting pitchers getting a batter or two to work through a jam?  Nah, it's just my imagination .... or is it? Has Baldelli decided to manage differently? The guys putting together the roster and running the game decisions are confusing for me.

There's a world in which Baldelli has always kinda wanted to play this way, but has been the good soldier in implementing Falvey's Master Plan.  Perhaps Baldelli was as pissed about the trade deadline as many of us were, and he just thought:  "eff this, if he's gonna torpedo my team then I'm gonna manage the way I want." 

Hence the changes in strategy that honestly are more reflective of how he was as a ballplayer. 

For all the pervasive narratives about being a slave to analytics, spreadsheets, etc, we're talking about a baseball lifer with a high school education, not some MIT lab rat that was looking for arbitrage in the options trading market when Falvey chose him to implement his plan.  I've always felt that the issue is how he uses analytics, not the fact that he's using them in the first place.  He too often makes decisions at the matchup level without enough consideration on how that affects the rest of the game.  Like he doesn't have a full understanding of the information he's using.  Which would make sense if he's trying to implement a strategy that wasn't his preferred one.

So is Rocco finally going rogue after dutifully following orders for years?  Probably not.  If he really had an issue with Falvey's plans, this probably would've come out years ago.  And post-deadline, he was left with a player mix that was probably a better fit for more aggressiveness on the basepaths.  But it does make me wonder.  We'll probably need to wait for the book to come out years from now to know the full story

[DannySD]

If I were the Twins, I'd fire my scouting department at this point, too. A dartboard might prove more effective. 

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

Hence the changes in strategy that honestly are more reflective of how he was as a ballplayer. 

This has always confused me when watching the style of baseball with Rocco in the dugout. It hasn't been reflective of him. How much can a manager deviate from the front office?

[JBK]

What can fans expect?  A parade

[thelanges5]

Why sully a new manager with a 100 loss season in 2026. Let Rocco wear it. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

There is enough wrong with this team that a new manager probably makes very little difference.. It would seem like a very bad job to take right now, which probably limits the candidates.  

[sweetmusicviola16]

The past, present and future problem of this team is ownership, front office and manager. Changing just one won't fix things. They all go hand in hand. But it is time, past time, for Rocco to be replaced. To keep my post in line with the subject at hand. Prospects that graduate to the ML team developing their games to a higher level once here is putrid. This is the managers ultimate responsibility if that is how the organization is setup. 

[Vanimal46]

10 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

There is enough wrong with this team that a new manager probably makes very little difference.. It would seem like a very bad job to take right now, which probably limits the candidates.  

There’s what, maybe 2 or 3 manager openings every year? If someone wants to take the next step to manager they’ll take it. Not to mention it’s a fully guaranteed contract. 

[jjswol]

53 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Fire Falvey and Baldelli. It’s really that simple. Anything less is prolonging the rebuild process. 

You hit the nail on the head. You win free Twins tickets for the rest of 2025.

[Nashvilletwin]

What can we expect?

1. Making the playoffs when we have the talent.  The Twins had more than enough talent to have made the playoffs the last two years (2024 was an epic collapse).

2. Developing outstanding minor league talent into successful major leaguers.

Those are the minimum results that a small/mid market team needs to get out of their manager - develop the cheap homegrown talent and win the window is open.  Rocco has failed at both. 

[ashbury]

Managers have a finite shelf life.  It's not as long as most people expect, despite a few outliers like Lasorda and Sparky Anderson.  A different manager might spark different and better results for the Twins.  For a while.  Lather, rinse, repeat.

"Wanted: one red-ass manager, conversant in analytics.  Bring own spreadsheet software.  Salary commensurate with experience, right-sized downward by ten percent or so."

[gman]

23 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

What can we expect?

1. Making the playoffs when we have the talent.  The Twins had more than enough talent to have made the playoffs the last two years (2024 was an epic collapse).

2. Developing outstanding minor league talent into successful major leaguers.

Those are the minimum results that a small/mid market team needs to get out of their manager - develop the cheap homegrown talent and win the window is open.  Rocco has failed at both. 

Managers no longer have a hand in developing talent, if they ever did. The team has a whole organization load of people doing that.

[Parfigliano]

51 minutes ago, gman said:

Managers no longer have a hand in developing talent, if they ever did. The team has a whole organization load of people doing that.

They should do it better.

[Teflon]

No. If this was a veteran team I would consider it, but not with a makeshift group of players. Also, despite the press release saying the team is no longer for sale, I don't believe that. Let the new owners hire their own manager.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Typically a floundering team will sack the manager as a means of turning bad fortunes into something better. The Twins made the decision to fire the players. Who knows what is next? The team is playing to its talent and experience level to some extent. Consistency from the front office would suggest another  4-7 trades are expected in the coming months. But, we are just guessing. Maybe Falvey now, once again, has his dream team.

Where does Rocco Baldelli fit? Supposedly that question has already been answered with his contract. Either way, the Twins need an infusion of talent for the roster.

The most confusing part of this entire FalVineDelli Era has been the style of baseball. After taking a scythe to the bullpen, suddenly the Twins are running and we even saw a bunt. Has anyone else noted that the outfielders seem to be hitting the cutoff more often? A few starting pitchers getting a batter or two to work through a jam?  Nah, it's just my imagination .... or is it? Has Baldelli decided to manage differently? The guys putting together the roster and running the game decisions are confusing for me.

I suspect a new owner (some day in the future, 1-3 years from now) will bring about a sweep of the front office and dugout management. Until that time arrives, I don't expect much to change. Alas.

The roster has changed too. You can’t make a silk purse from a sow’s ear, but you can make dog chews.
 

Expecting Rocco to call an old school game with players who’ve never played an old school game since little league is a recipe for failure. Swap out some players who have a lower upside but better fundamentals because they were developed outside of the Twins will give any manager a different skill set to work with.

 

all this being said, eff it, blow it all up, this team is a mess.

[Woof Bronzer]

Assuming Rocco gets fired without an FO change. I expect the replacement will be someone...identical to Rocco.  A young, hungry guy with little to no experience and therefore little leverage , someone so willing to break in as a manager that they'll agree to just do whatever Falvey directs him to do, someone willing to go along with Falvey's "sabermetrics as a philosophy not a tool" mindset, someone without the experience and equity to argue or push back on the FO when they force the manager to trot out bad veterans just so their latest trade or signing doesn't look like another dud, someone who believes in process over results, someone who would come very cheap of course, someone who understands the job here is making the Pohlads rich and not probably most importantly, someone who understands and is ok with what the job here is NOT:  seriously contending for championships.  

[Craig Arko]

I expect the same people who were unhappy before to be unhappy after. 

[Nshore]

It's easy to say "fire Rocco" - but who is the promising prospective manager who is next in line?  It's better to be running toward something better than just running away from a disaster.  IMO the managers are often the convenient scapegoat, and the real issue is the weak performing roster of players they're handed by the GM.  As Tom Kelly said "Kirby Puckett made me a smarter manager".  That being said, Falvey and Baldelli seem to be an inseparable package, so they both probably need to go.  

[Doctor Gast]

IMO, it's not a bad cop/ good cop thing. It's faulty philosophies. IMO, Baldelli tries to alter them, but how it's set up, it's not working. I don't like how Baldelli handles his players, but if we fire him, we'll end up with someone worse, like Tingler. Our biggest problem is incompetence at the top. Nothing will change until there's change for the better at the top.

[Glorybound]

So much bigger problems than the manager. Since he was extended for next season might as well see it through it is not like the team is a contender for the division title.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

4 hours ago, jjswol said:

You hit the nail on the head. You win free Twins tickets for the rest of 2025.

Ponying up for a ticket today and one tomorrow?

[T.O.]

For what ever reason I read titles from right to left. I got excited I was reading breaking news until I came to "If". 
Thanks a lot.