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Posted
Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

Derek Falvey made a clear statement at this year’s trade deadline. While the Twins did acquire a few lower-minors prospects, the bulk of the return was weighted toward players who were in the high minors, with many of them having already debuted in the big leagues. In his letter to season ticket holders after the fire sale, Falvey spelled it out directly.

“We added players who can help now," he wrote, "deepening our talent pipeline for 2026 and beyond.” He emphasized that in his post-deadline Zoom press conference with reporters, too, specifically stating that the team eschewed certain offers that would have brought them players with higher prospect ratings but less proximity to the majors.

Whether this was a move designed to protect his own job by bringing in players who could contribute right away or simply a conservative strategy aimed at banking on safer floors rather than chasing risky upside, the Twins wanted players close to the major leagues.

That decision carries tradeoffs. Players in the low minors are more volatile, but with that volatility comes the chance to hit on a future star. By contrast, players in the high minors (or already in the majors) are more predictable, but they often come with a lower ceiling. The best high-minors performers rarely get traded at all, which means teams often have to settle for players who either stalled out or were squeezed off a roster. There are exceptions, like Joe Ryan, who arrived in Minnesota as a high-minors arm and turned into a front-line starter, but that path is rare. Falvey still chose to load up on these types of players, hoping to have roster spots filled and a competitive base in place for 2026 and 2027.

Of the 13 players acquired at the deadline, four had already debuted in the majors. That number may not sound overwhelming, but those were four of the top seven names in terms of prospect caliber. The Twins were not hiding their preferences. Taj Bradley entered the organization with 354 big-league innings already logged. James Outman had piled up more than 600 plate appearances with the Dodgers. Alan Roden had 40 games under his belt with Toronto this season. Mick Abel had already made the leap to the big leagues earlier this year, for the mighty Phillies. These were not prospects being stashed for a distant future. They were meant to help immediately.

The early results have been discouraging. Roden was sent straight to the major-league roster and lasted 12 games, before a hand injury ended his season. He posted a .463 OPS in that brief stretch, leaving little to suggest he will be ready to anchor an outfield spot next spring. Outman, who came over in the Brock Stewart deal, also got his chance after a curious minor-league stint. In 20 games with the Twins, he has posted a .539 OPS. For someone with his level of big-league experience, that performance raises questions about whether he should be counted on at all.

On the pitching side, the story is similar. Bradley, the most seasoned of the bunch, was sent down for tweaks before being promoted again. In three starts for the Twins, he has a 7.20 ERA, and his time in St. Paul was not much better. Mick Abel, who arrived with the best prospect pedigree as a former top high-school pick, has had an even rougher start. In two brief outings with the Twins, he was hit hard, allowing 11 runs in four innings. His ERA sits at 24.75, and he has already been returned to the minors. Abel still has youth and talent on his side, but his first impression hardly inspires confidence. He certainly cannot be an assumed member of the 2026 starting rotation as the Twins make their plans this offseason.

None of these players should be written off. Development is rarely linear, and all are still young enough to turn things around. But the frustrating reality is that Falvey sacrificed potential long-term upside of players further away from the Majors for the supposed certainty of having names to plug into the 2026 roster. And even that certainty hasn’t materialized. Because of injuries (in the case of Roden) or questionable performance, albeit in a small sample size, the Twins still face as many unanswered questions about their 2026 lineup as they would have if they had swung for more upside.

On the flip side, one well-reported exception to the policy Falvey talked about pursuing was the trade in which the Twins sent Jhoan Duran to the Phillies. They did go with the further-off prospect as the headliner, in that deal, letting Abel be the secondary piece to Eduardo Tait instead of taking the proferred Aidan Miller. The Phillies infield prospect batted .361/.485/.630 at Double-A Reading in August, and earned a promotion to Triple-A Lehigh Valley to close out the season. It's perfectly possible he wouldn't have done that if he'd been dealt to the Twins, but right now, his bat looks almost ready for the majors—and the Twins passed on it, in favor of Tait and Abel.

The hope is that these players turn things around, either late this year or over the offseason. At the moment, though, the strategy appears flawed. For a team unlikely to contend next year, the Twins passed on some higher-upside prospects to acquire players who were supposed to contribute quickly, only to watch those players stumble out of the gate. It leaves an uncomfortable question for fans to consider. Was Falvey right to focus on readiness, or did the Twins sacrifice too much potential for too little immediate help—and choose the wrong place to zig against that zag?


What do you think? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!


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Posted

It's going to take at least a year to evaluate the Talent we acquired. Tait, Jimenez and Gallagher have handled themselves pretty well. Abel.. I'm disappointed honestly but he will probably have the inside track to a starting job next year. Taj, maybe the pen. The Already outfielders haven't done much but let's look to Buxton Martin Jenkins and Rodriguez as a possible bunch in 2026. The weak spot in the organization was catcher, and that has been addressed. 

It isn't what we got that's blameworthy.. but that what we lost was all from the same toolbox. Can you imagine if we had traded Jeffers, Vazquez and Gasper? 

Posted

I think we can write off Outman, I don't see a path to fixing a guy who is striking out 40% of the time. There is still time for the others, especially Abel and Roden with their inexperience, but it's not encouraging.

When it comes to the players we traded away, for the most part I think they made the right decisions to trade the players they did (looking at you, Jax and Stewart) but I didn't particularly like the packages they got back for them. With the way the team is looking, I would have preferred more younger prospects than the likes of Outman and Bradley.

And it'd feel better if there was any semblance of a plan for the bullpen instead of this disgraceful display of AAA slop in the majors. We know this team even when it had a competitive budget was deathly afraid of paying relievers and they continue to refuse to move any starter prospects to the pen... how the heck are they going to field a pen next year?

Twins Daily Contributor
Posted

Outman has been a failure for 2 years now. That's why he's spent much of those years in AAA. Besides which he'll be 29 next year. He's not a prospect.

Bradley is pushing 70 MLB starts...and was traded for a reliever...by an organization that depends almost solely on deploying young talent. He's a failed prospect. Expecting better from him is...highly optimistic to say the least.

Abel is who they settled for when they couldn't get the real Philly talent. 

Roden never ever profiled as an above average MLB regular. 

Nobody should be surprised by this.

Posted

The Philly trade discussed you need to consider what the team has already.  Specifically, the article suggests Aidan Miller was floated for the Twins, they rejected for Tait and Abel.  Well, at the time Miller was doing terrible in AA, because with his August numbers his overall was .259/.382/.427, which for a full year of a decent defending SS is good, but when he has the August mentioned his numbers were much worse. Scouting reports are he will come off SS and play 3rd or 2nd, making his bat more needed.

Then you see we have Culpepper, similar age, performing overall better at AA and despite initial thoughts of him moving off SS rumors are he is doing fine there. So bringing in Miller may have added a possible bat, but he would have slotted into the same spots as Lewis, Lee, Keashall, Culpepper, and we just drafted a SS in Houston.  

On the flip side, Tait is a top prospect, years away, but is a possible catcher, of which we have no top prospects, and a pitcher, that you can never have too many to fill in.

Miller may have value but in the Twins system he would have less value because of so many other possible guys that can cover the same areas he would do. 

Posted
9 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

This is too quick to make any judgments for most of the players they acquired in my opinion. And that's for good or bad. 

I'm quite comfortable judging James Outman, in fact I don't think I need to see another James Outman at bat as long as I live.   Taj Bradley has pitched in this league more than 2 years now.  These aren't prospects, they are who they are. 

Abel doesn't look like a major leaguer by any stretch of the imagination and Roden's ceiling is, what, 4th outfielder?

 

Posted
3 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

I'm quite comfortable judging James Outman, in fact I don't think I need to see another James Outman at bat as long as I live.   Taj Bradley has pitched in this league more than 2 years now.  These aren't prospects, they are who they are. 

Abel doesn't look like a major leaguer by any stretch of the imagination and Roden's ceiling is, what, 4th outfielder?

 

I know, but still, you and I aren't working for a pro team right?

If Outman can get to a place where he is close to what Michael Taylor provides, I'm ok with that. We'll see.

Bradley and Abel I do think have the opportunity to change their pitch mix a little and be good starters next year. This offseason will be good for both of them to look at their velo and their pitch mix. They have health and good stuff on their side.

I don't know at all what to expect out of Roden, but he has strong AAA numbers historically. I view him as a good enough Larnach replacement and able to keep a seat warm until Rodriguez or someone else takes it.

Even then, again, I'm not in mlb development, so me seeing Abel pitched once or twice has no barrier on his future success or failure.

Posted

I've been disappointed with the MLB-ready players received & IMO, priority was a promising MLB-ready catcher for now. Tait is a long way off with no guarantee he'd stick at catcher. With all the proven talent we gave away, IMO, what we received was well short for a deadline return.

Posted

One thought…

Trading Duran, Jax and Varland has been difficult for me to accept. I get the other deals whether it be a trade of salary or a trade of a player on an expiring contract. I will even accept that counting on Browck Stewart to be healthy next year was unreasonable. These are the arguments for these deals.

Relievers are Fungible

I guess the logic is that relievers are fungible and a bullpen can be rebuilt inexpensively. I think that logic is tragically flawed. While the ERA of a reliever fluctuates more than a starter or regular position player I do not believe that their talent or skill is fluctuating. A talented reliever remains a talented reliever. It is the inherently small sample of a reliever that causes the ERA and even FIP to vary. Both need a large sample to stabilize. For Falvey to be correct he needs to build a bullpen next year using fewer resources than he acquired at the deadline.

Prospect Hauls are Possible

The other flaw in thinking is that a haul can be acquired at the deadline. The prospects hauls of the 2010s are no longer. Somehow simply being in the top 100 of prospects has taken on a special status. The reality is that being in the middle or back half of the top 100 is far different than the top 10. I would guess a prospect in the 40s is more similar to a number 200 prospect than one in the top 10. The Twins didn’t demand that top flight prospect and gave up the only leverage they had when they traded Duran. They didn’t get a haul and there probably wasn’t one to be had. De Vries was moved and I don’t think the Padres take Duran over Miller given the service time. Last year no top flight prospect moved. No top flight prospects were moved in 2023. You can’t gut your teams and get players with better than an FV50 anymore. There is no reason to trade that extra service time at the deadline. You don’t get enough value in return.

Posted

One other thought…

I don’t think one or two months of data is very valuable for making decisions. Kyle Stowers was awful in 172 plate appearances after being acquired by the Marlins last year. He had an OPS+ of 55 and a -6 OAA in the outfield. It is really hard to perform worse than that. To the Marlins credit they gave him the one thing he needed in consistent play at the major league level. He has rewarded them this year. Improvement isn’t linear and even a player at 26 can be much better at 27.

Posted

well, there's also a problem lumping in Roden & Outman as if they should have the same weight as Abel, Rojas, Tait, and Bradley.

Outman was a flip for an oft-injured reliever that simply can't be counted on to be healthy enough to be counted on.

Roden was basically the Ty France part of the deal with Toronto, wouldn't you say?

Bradley was awful in his Twins debut, but intriguing in his next 2. Seems too early to judge him. When he's getting swing & miss and getting K's, he's effective. He's had dominant performances this season in MLB (and not just against bad teams) and shown he can pitch effectively into the 6th inning and beyond. We'll see if he's worth Jax. (who has...struggled since going to TB, including an implosion last week where he faced 3 hitters and gave up a hit and 2 walks recording zero outs)

Abel has looked pretty good in AAA for the Twins; sure he got his brains kicked in for his first 2 MLB appearances with us, but there's a lot to like with his arm talent.

Rojas is the one where I think Falvey tried too hard to sell the idea of a guy being close to MLB ready: he should have gone to AA to continue his development and not worried about getting him to MLB with all haste. Whiff of desperation on that one when the Varland deal was seen so negatively by so many.

No one acquired has looked ready to contribute to any kind of quick turnaround, but writing off Bradley and Abel this fast seems foolish.

Tait, of course, is doing just fine at High A; he has things to work on, but looks like he can stick at catcher so far and his shown real tools, while holding his own at Cedar Rapids while just barely turning 19.

But this is part of why I don't want to see Jenkins up with the MLB club right now. Everything is so negative (not unreasonably with these idiot owners) that if Jenkins doesn't pull a Keaschall people will be arguing for him to get dumped. Just imagine if he went 1-8 with 3 K's and overthrows a base...

Posted
1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I know, but still, you and I aren't working for a pro team right?

If Outman can get to a place where he is close to what Michael Taylor provides, I'm ok with that. We'll see.

Bradley and Abel I do think have the opportunity to change their pitch mix a little and be good starters next year. This offseason will be good for both of them to look at their velo and their pitch mix. They have health and good stuff on their side.

I don't know at all what to expect out of Roden, but he has strong AAA numbers historically. I view him as a good enough Larnach replacement and able to keep a seat warm until Rodriguez or someone else takes it.

Even then, again, I'm not in mlb development, so me seeing Abel pitched once or twice has no barrier on his future success or failure.

Outman will be 29 next year, other than a good rookie year what makes anyone think he will be close to a major leaguer and his defense has not been as strong as advertised.  We didn't give up much, but we need some quality in the bullpen and Stewart is better than most of the arms run out there.

If TB couldn't see the need or have the ability to get Bradley to change his pitch mix how do you expect the Twins to do better than an organization that has proven to be better at developing pitching.

So we traded for a Larnach replacement when he is only a seat warmer for a younger player.  Why give up an asset we have 5 years of control for a replacement for a known commodity we still have control for another year.  And no we will not get a major league ready player for Larnach unless he is packaged with others.

We blew up a bullpen for change sake and it has not or will make the team better in the near future. The returns for these trades needed to make a better first impression and they haven't and they are not inspiring much confidence that they will be productive members of a winning team. 

Posted

Why we acquired 3 more left handed hitting OFers when we have so many almost ready in our system will always be a mystery to me (though Mendez maybe becomes a 1B).  Falvey has a fixation I guess. In any case there’s no evidence that after all these years that Falvey is competent at his job so it’s no wonder that these guys aren’t particularly good. 

Posted

I am wondering if the information is actually correct. Yes. Falvey did say that they chose MLB ready prospects over higher ceiling players that were further away, but you would expect a GM to say that we traded for players that will allow the team to compete next year. You would not expect a GM to say we chose players who will be MLB ready in 3 or 4 years because our team will suck until them. Without knowing who the other players are, it is impossible to properly evaluate whether or not they could have had a better return. 

Posted
3 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Outman has been a failure for 2 years now. That's why he's spent much of those years in AAA. Besides which he'll be 29 next year. He's not a prospect.

Bradley is pushing 70 MLB starts...and was traded for a reliever...by an organization that depends almost solely on deploying young talent. He's a failed prospect. Expecting better from him is...highly optimistic to say the least.

Abel is who they settled for when they couldn't get the real Philly talent. 

Roden never ever profiled as an above average MLB regular. 

Nobody should be surprised by this.

Aged semi poorly.

Posted

As a person who doesn’t want to defend management in any way, it’s…um…way too early to even have a very legitimate opinion on these guys.

When any team acquires young “major league ready” talent at the deadline it doesn’t typically mean “major league productive”. If that were the case, the contending team doesn’t let them go in the first place. It simply means that the next stage of development is anticipated to be primarily at the major league level, since they’ve already achieved success at the high minor league levels. Hence the reason reasonable fans get disappointed…it’s a step backwards, it takes time…even when it works.

I have no idea if any, or which, of the “ready” guys are going to work out. But 6 weeks of play or a handful of starts does very little to inform me.

Posted
24 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

As a person who doesn’t want to defend management in any way, it’s…um…way too early to even have an opinion on these guys.

When any team acquires young “major league ready” talent at the deadline it doesn’t typically mean “major league productive”. If that were the case, the contending team doesn’t let them go in the first place. It simply means that the next stage of development is anticipated to be primarily at the major league level, since they’ve already achieved success at the high minor league levels. Hence the reason reasonable fans get disappointed…it’s a step backwards, it takes time…even when it works.

I can generally agree with this sentiment.  However, it would have been nice if ONE of the acquired players, JUST ONE, would have looked good in their August/September audition.  I really am not seeing Outman though.  He's 29 and been terrible for two years, and it's not hard to see why.  Seems like the guy you get in a trade for Miranda straight up.  They are quite different players but their career value arcs are kind of similar. 

Posted
3 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Roden was basically the Ty France part of the deal with Toronto, wouldn't you say?

I refuse to believe that France had any impact on the deal. Varland for Rojas straight-up makes absolutely no sense given Varland has 5 years of control, France was a throw-in. We barely saved any money on him so it wasn't salary related.

Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Bradley is pushing 70 MLB starts...and was traded for a reliever...by an organization that depends almost solely on deploying young talent. He's a failed prospect. Expecting better from him is...highly optimistic to say the least.

Fully agree.  I tend to question when an organization that is known for rebuilding starting pitchers essentially gives up on a guy and lets him go in a trade.  A couple of examples over the last few years are Zach Littel, Zach Eflin, Shane McClanahan.  I post this knowing that Bradley had a quality start today, but it is seeming like he is very inconsistent, which is bad for a team that can't produce any runs.

Edited by Western SD Fan
added last sentence
Posted
2 hours ago, Danchat said:

I refuse to believe that France had any impact on the deal. Varland for Rojas straight-up makes absolutely no sense given Varland has 5 years of control, France was a throw-in. We barely saved any money on him so it wasn't salary related.

And before it gets said, it wasn't for tanking purposes either.

It was the final trade to go down.  The "tank" had already been secured.  The presence of Varland for two more months, given what had already gone out the door, would not have had any meaningful effect on their lottery odds.  Certainly not enough to forego a still-pre-arb bullpen option - who would've easily been the best remaining bullpen option in the organization - when they were now going to need those more than ever.  

This trade was a fairly large bet on Rojas.  That's it.  In retrospect, it looks to me like Roden and France were there to balance the scales. 

Also another indication that there's no intention to be competitive next year.  The idea that it's wise to use their scarce free agent dollars (whatever that amount ends up being) on a market-rate high leverage reliever to replace a pre-arb one given the multitude of other areas of the roster needing an upgrade is bonkers.

Posted

Retrospect is important. As well as a long term lense. I didn't like all of the moves made to be certain. But I can now look a little more honestly, weeks gone by, at these moves.

1] I HATED Outman for Stewart. It only garnered a Keirsey clone with a slightly better track record. BOTH should be DFA immediately and maybe keep one for AAA ball in 2026 if they want to stick around. I'm actually more pissed that they've let them keep a 40 man roster vs letting Fedko get a 30 day shot to see up close what you might have.

FO short sightedness yet again.

2] Zero problem moving Coulombe for a young LH arm like Horn, lower level, with talent. And Coulombe might be right back on another 1yr deal for 2026 to keep the same role he had: 1 out, or 1 IP.

3] Paddack for a really young switch hitting catcher with a strong arm, some hit ability, some power, and the ability to stick behind the plate? I had HOPED for a pen arm that might be ready to help in 2026. That certainly didn't happen here. And it's a LONG ROAD before Jimenez might reach the ML. But if he really is Vazquez with a better bat...comparisons I've heard...this might be a STEAL!

4] Hendry Mendez for Bader with a 16-17yo kid named Villoria as a pitcher thrown in. Again, I had hope for a 2026 BP option, or maybe even a 4th OF type. Instead, we get a LH version of G Gonzalez who is raking at AA who needs to learn to LIFT the ball to have power before his production craters as a hard hitting, ground ball bat. But the potential is certainly there. And he's off to a good start at Wichita. Villoria only needs mention as the Twins Latin scouts are familiar with him.

5] Correa for NOTHING but a 26yo low A and salary relief means NOTHING. The debate might continue for years to come. Paying $10M for the next few years falls on Jim Pohlad to make this deal. It ONLY makes sense in the long run if they actually spend the freed up $20M.

6] Castro for Gallagher makes some sense. Gallagher has a variety of pitches, but doesn't dominate with any of them. But he's a 2024 rookie at AA. That's kind of crazy. Solid college numbers but not amazing. Good length. There's potential there. Probably more than Armstrong, also brought on board. One future BP candidate and one that had a shot to remain as a ML starter potentially. 

BOTH maybe the next Jax, Sands, etc in a couple of seasons? There are some good arms behind them.

7] Taj Bradley for Jax. I HATED this trade and still question it. Jax, despite his trade request after speaking with Correa and being frustrated with the RED deadline day, didn't have to be moved. Despite a frustrating season, his peripherals showed he was still throwing well. He would have been the closer in 2026 for the Twins.

Meanwhile, the young and talented Bradley had been regressing for the Rays. Did the Twins really see Jax going downward? Did they see the upside in Bradley that Tampa didn't see in Ryan?

I'm a little neutral on this deal at the moment.

8] I hated Varland to Toronto at the deadline and I still dislike it weeks later. But I hate it less with time to reflect. Varland could have been the top setup man, and potential closer, for 3-5yrs for the Twins. INSTEAD, they get a mediocre LH OF/1B with SOME potential and a LHP with limited experience that should STILL be in AA. 

9] Duran for Abel and Tait. Let's start with the good. Abel has been a top 100 prospect for some time now. He's got great stuff, but has fought control issues. He's got top of the rotation potential. 

Tait might just be the best MILB catching prospect in MLB. He's got a strong arm and a quality LH bat that might produce 30 HR power. Even IF he can't t stay behind the dish...unlikely at this point...he'd still be a hell of a 1B!

Reports are they could have had Aiden Miller, a multi talented SS who reportedly can't stick at SS and might be moving to 3B or elsewhere.  But the Twins chose the POTENTIAL of Tait instead. That might be debatable a couple years from now. 

I just went through EVERY trade and their return...questionable or not...and the ONLY acquired prospects that might be considered MAJOR LEAGUE READY would include Abel, Outman, Roden, and Bradley. 

That's 4 possible early return players of 12 as Mikulski was really for paperwork only in the Correa deal.

And Outman is an IMMEDIATE DFA, OR Keirsey,  take your pick. Outman was a remote flier of "any chance he figures it out with a change of scenery at 28yo after 2 really bad years". Considering Stewart was hurt again shortly after the trade...and early reports Outman was PART of a trade for Stewart initially, this was really a wash of hope for both sides.

I don't have a ton of faith in Roden...I see him as a solid bench piece at best...but do we just dismiss his MILB career so soon after struggling as a rookie after only 153 PA?

 Is Abel the next Duran? Would that actually be a loss when we also gained Taint as our next cather of the future? I'm talking long term.

I just think there's a lot to decompress at this point. I'm still not sure the Twins or lost anything at this point. 

While I'm still NOT a fan of the RED DAY that was the trade deadline, I think the OP's idea of a bust for "ready players" is way out of line. 

Again, Outman is already out, barring some unexpected turnaround at AAA in 2026 if he stays with the Twins.

So after the dust has settled, really the ONLY 3 players brought back in trades to provide any sort of immediate help...this season or next...were Roden, Abel, and Bradley.

We can debate at length whether Roden has a shot...even if he gets his game together...in the OF or 1B considering Wallner, Jenkins, and Rodriguez, amongst others. (MAYBE 1B is an option).

And we can talk at length about the STUFF and potential of Abel and Bradley and their futures. 

But honestly, those are REALLY the only 3 prospects back that might provide immediate dividends. So the OP is really incorrect in intent, if not perspective. 

As much as anyone can bash Falvey and the FO, or hate the trades and returns, they actually made these moves mostly with 2-3 years from now in regard to Mendez, Horn, Gallagher, Armstrong, Jimenez, Tait, and Rojas.

Falvey and company may or may not be around to see if these moves turn out. But to their credit, they did so for the future. 

Posted
3 hours ago, Eris said:

I am wondering if the information is actually correct. Yes. Falvey did say that they chose MLB ready prospects over higher ceiling players that were further away, but you would expect a GM to say that we traded for players that will allow the team to compete next year. You would not expect a GM to say we chose players who will be MLB ready in 3 or 4 years because our team will suck until them. Without knowing who the other players are, it is impossible to properly evaluate whether or not they could have had a better return. 

Just as an example I recently posted, the Twins apparently had the choice of Tait or Aiden Miller. While Miller is also a top 100 prospect, he probably doesn't stick at SS. The Twins see Lewis, Lee, Keaschall, and K-Pepper in their INF and decided they wanted Tait as a difference maker at Catcher, vs a more immediate impact player.

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