Here Comes the Injury Bug: Who Can Backfill in the Bullpen?

[Cody Pirkl]

The Twins' bullpen has taken some hits in the last week, and some of the group's health concerns are already showing up. Who could we see stepping into more prominent roles?

Image courtesy of © Chris Tilley-Imagn Images

While the timelines are not yet clear, the Twins have lost two pieces of their potential bullpen puzzle in the last week. The relief corps was projected to be one of the best in baseball this season, but a few of their depth options will already be unexpectedly pushed into more playing time. Who could stand to benefit?

Matt Canterino may not have slotted into an Opening Day role, but he was looked at as a potential impact addition to the bullpen sometime this season—if he could finally stay healthy. Instead, he’s been shut down again with shoulder issues, which caused him to miss all of 2024. While his status remains in question, it’s fair to wonder whether this early recurrence of his shoulder woes foreshadows another lost season. Indeed, Canterino's career itself might soon be in jeopardy.

On the other hand, Justin Topa was fairly likely to make the Opening Day roster, after missing most of 2024 himself. A piece of the Jorge Polanco trade, Topa has yet to make an impact with the Twins after a fantastic season with the Mariners in 2023. On Wednesday, he left his outing early with shoulder discomfort, having shown diminished velocity in the handful of pitches he threw before departing. While it's good news that this isn't a recurrence of the knee trouble that shelved him for most of 2024, it’s unfortunate, and it could have him behind for Opening Day, at the very least.

Luckily, the Twins were already in a spot with potential MLB-caliber relief options who may not break camp with the parent club. The rest of the spring could now be an open competition.

Louis Varland already appeared to be competing for a spot in the bullpen. Though the Twins haven’t come right out and declared him a full-time reliever, their actions speak loud and clear. Varland has yet to make an appearance of more than a single inning this spring. Given how the Twins typically operate, if they saw any scenario in which Varland would contribute to the rotation early in the season, he would likely still be building up his workload.

While Varland’s career has had its ups and downs, he’s shown he can be a high-impact high-leverage reliever. His streamlined repertoire plays well with his near-triple-digit fastball, and there’s certainly a world where he’s pitching high-leverage innings this season. His spot on the Opening Day roster wasn’t guaranteed, but it becomes quite likely that he’ll be in the Twins bullpen on Opening Day if Topa is unavailable.

Perhaps the loss of a setup-caliber reliever doesn’t help Eiberson Castellano make the roster, but the numbers game does. The Rule 5 Draft pickup was the Philadelphia Phillies' Minor League Pitcher of the Year last season, and he must stay in MLB for the entirety of 2025 unless the Twins want to send him back. Because of this, we could see the Twins hide Castellano in long relief or mop-up duty, hoping they can reevaluate the talented right-hander’s role in 2026.

Suppose the Twins feel comfortable with the upper tier of their bullpen, despite Topa’s absence. In that case, Castellano is the perfect pitcher to slot into a low-leverage role at the very bottom of the bullpen hierarchy. Despite the remaining starting pitcher ceiling, it’s also possible that Castellano can make a legitimate contribution to the Twins bullpen if he gets a shot.

There's always a chance another reliever will put themselves on the radar this spring. Travis Adams could serve in a bulk role. Minor-league signings like Alex Speas or Huascar Ynoa could earn a spot. There could also be more openings than we currently believe. There's always the risk of more injuries, or that a veteran isn’t quite ready by the end of the spring. It’s also possible someone like 40-man roster recipient Michael Tonkin is in actual competition for a spot at the end of the bullpen. He’s undoubtedly struggled to begin the spring, and the Twins may choose to go a younger direction.

It’s always a bummer to see injuries this early in the season, and the Twins pitching staff still has plenty of question marks to answer health-wise before the regular season starts. The relief corps remains strong for now, and the injuries sustained should result in more opportunities for young and exciting players.

---

Are there other pitchers who could find themselves with more opportunities in 2025 because of these early injuries? Let us know below!

View full article

[Theodore Tollefson]

Last I checked, Austin Adams was on the Red Sox Triple-A roster and not in the Twins organization. 

[nicksaviking]

2 minutes ago, Theodore Tollefson said:

Last I checked, Austin Adams was on the Red Sox Triple-A roster and not in the Twins organization. 

Boston? No, you're thinking of John Quincy Adams. Austin Adams was his father, the 2nd president. People always get those two mixed up though.

[DocBauer]

Canterino was a mid season longshot that we all hoped for. We don't even know the extent of Topa's injury at this point. From what was initially reported, it could be a mild strain or something similar. I'm not pushing the panic button until we hear and know more about Topa. 

[Joe A. Preusser]

Isn't this the reason we bring in 13 guys for an 8 man pen?  The depth is there.  High end is still intact.  

Keep my 2025 BP crush LOUIS Varland in short relief and I'll be happy.  

This BP is going to rock.

[Fatbat]

What exactly happened to Canterino?

[Parfigliano]

6 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

What exactly happened to Canterino?

He threw a pitch.  40 off

[jorgenswest]

If the plan is to exclusively use Castellano in low leverage they should return him now. There are no low leverage roles for a competing team.

There really aren’t long reliever roles either unless that player has an option so that they can be sent to AAA after an outing that will make them unavailable the next 2-3 games.

Castellano needs to show enough that he can be trusted on the occasions he is needed in higher leverage. If he isn’t ready they need to send him back. A competing team can’t devote a spot on the 26 to a player not ready to compete at the major league level.

[Jocko87]

18 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

What exactly happened to Canterino?

Rice University.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I wonder if anyone else gets hurt in the next bit if they reach out to David Robertson. He would certainly help here

[arby58]

28 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I wonder if anyone else gets hurt in the next bit if they reach out to David Robertson. He would certainly help here

He's got to be seeking a raise, and he made $11.5 million last year. He's 40 years old - seems like a lot to pay when the Twins have a pretty good front end of the bullpen already.

[FlyingFinn]

Castellano still needs more injuries not to get sent back to Philly (Philly is unwilling to trade him for anything reasonable). I don't keep him unless he really shows greatness in spring training. I'm just looking at box scores so someone tell me if watching him is different.

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

There are no low leverage roles for a competing team.

 

I'm continually amazed how many people don't understand this simple concept. 

[jkcarew]

Disappointing. Usually the “best bullpen in baseball” narrative makes it to April.

[Major League Ready]

29 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

Castellano still needs more injuries not to get sent back to Philly (Philly is unwilling to trade him for anything reasonable). I don't keep him unless he really shows greatness in spring training. I'm just looking at box scores so someone tell me if watching him is different.

His 2 IP today was the first I have seen of him.  He has very good stuff but a bit erratic.  

[DocBauer]

42 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

Castellano still needs more injuries not to get sent back to Philly (Philly is unwilling to trade him for anything reasonable). I don't keep him unless he really shows greatness in spring training. I'm just looking at box scores so someone tell me if watching him is different.

His fastball sits consistently around 95-97, and hits 97 consistently. It's got a lot of life but his control today was off. (Control was much better his first time out).  His curve is pretty hard, and very nasty! I can see why the Twins like him. 

But unless you can count on him for something more than a once in a week innings eater, I don't see room for him as a stash when you're expecting to contend for a division title and the playoffs.

[arby58]

46 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

Disappointing. Usually the “best bullpen in baseball” narrative makes it to April.

Topa being down hardly changes that. The headliners are Duran, Jax, Sands, Coulombe, Alcala, Stewart. Topa and Tonkin are next in line (and I'd rather have Varland than Tonkin).

 

[Parfigliano]

4 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

His fastball sits consistently around 95-97, and hits 97 consistently. It's got a lot of life but his control today was off. (Control was much better his first time out).  His curve is pretty hard, and very nasty! I can see why the Twins like him. 

But unless you can count on him for something more than a once in a week innings eater, I don't see room for him as a stash when you're expecting to contend for a division title and the playoffs.

Who is expecting to contend división it's WS or 

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

If the plan is to exclusively use Castellano in low leverage they should return him now. There are no low leverage roles for a competing team.

There really aren’t long reliever roles either unless that player has an option so that they can be sent to AAA after an outing that will make them unavailable the next 2-3 games.

Castellano needs to show enough that he can be trusted on the occasions he is needed in higher leverage. If he isn’t ready they need to send him back. A competing team can’t devote a spot on the 26 to a player not ready to compete at the major league level.

 

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

I'm continually amazed how many people don't understand this simple concept. 

Games decided by x number of runs for the Twins in 2024
4+ = 73 games <--- this is where low leverage relievers get their innings
3 = 20 games <--- maybe here, too
2 = 27 games
1 = 42 games

There are absolutely going to be mediocre to questionably MLB worthy relievers who take the mound for the Twins (and every single other team in MLB) this year. Here are the names of the relievers who generated 0.0 or less WAR for Minnesota by innings pitched. There will be a plan to use several of their relievers exclusively in low leverage situations. That's standard MLB practice. It's also unavoidable relievers sometimes get used in situations you'd rather not deploy them if possible.

Steven Okert - 35 innings
Kody Funderburk - 34 innings
Jay Jackson - 26 innings
Louie Varland - 17 innings
Trevor Richards - 13 innings
Diego Castillo - 10 innings
7 other nameless relievers under 10 innings.

The very best bullpen in all of baseball last year, the Guardians, sent out Scott Barlow and Nick Sandlin to pitch 130 times for a total of 111.2 innings. Barlow produced 0.0 fWAR with a 4.25 ERA and a 4.02 FIP while Sandlin's 0.0 fWAR came with a very lucky 3.81 ERA despite the 5.23 FIP. 

Everybody understands the concept of not keeping a pitcher who isn't of MLB caliber or potential. Johan Santana wasn't worth a roster spot when the Twins took him in. Worked out okay for the Twins as I recall.

[jorgenswest]

18 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Everybody understands the concept of not keeping a pitcher who isn't of MLB caliber or potential. Johan Santana wasn't worth a roster spot when the Twins took him in. Worked out okay for the Twins as I recall.

The Twins were a 63 win team on the way to a 69 win season. I don’t think they make the same roster decision if they felt they had a good shot at winning the division.

I still don’t believe a competing team can devote a spot on the 26 to an ineffective reliever they can’t option. If Castellano can put up a lot of innings with an ERA of 3.81 or 4.25 I am fine with the Twins rostering him.

26 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

The very best bullpen in all of baseball last year, the Guardians, sent out Scott Barlow and Nick Sandlin to pitch 130 times for a total of 111.2 innings. Barlow produced 0.0 fWAR with a 4.25 ERA and a 4.02 FIP while Sandlin's 0.0 fWAR came with a very lucky 3.81 ERA despite the 5.23 FIP. 

I am curious why FIP is better here than xFIP. Do you always use FIP?

[tony&rodney]

Defense, running the bases, and timely hitting are major concerns for this team. The pitching staff doesn't worry me in the least.

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

 

Games decided by x number of runs for the Twins in 2024
4+ = 73 games <--- this is where low leverage relievers get their innings
3 = 20 games <--- maybe here, too
2 = 27 games
1 = 42 games

There are absolutely going to be mediocre to questionably MLB worthy relievers who take the mound for the Twins (and every single other team in MLB) this year. Here are the names of the relievers who generated 0.0 or less WAR for Minnesota by innings pitched. There will be a plan to use several of their relievers exclusively in low leverage situations. That's standard MLB practice. It's also unavoidable relievers sometimes get used in situations you'd rather not deploy them if possible.

Steven Okert - 35 innings
Kody Funderburk - 34 innings
Jay Jackson - 26 innings
Louie Varland - 17 innings
Trevor Richards - 13 innings
Diego Castillo - 10 innings
7 other nameless relievers under 10 innings.

The very best bullpen in all of baseball last year, the Guardians, sent out Scott Barlow and Nick Sandlin to pitch 130 times for a total of 111.2 innings. Barlow produced 0.0 fWAR with a 4.25 ERA and a 4.02 FIP while Sandlin's 0.0 fWAR came with a very lucky 3.81 ERA despite the 5.23 FIP. 

Everybody understands the concept of not keeping a pitcher who isn't of MLB caliber or potential. Johan Santana wasn't worth a roster spot when the Twins took him in. Worked out okay for the Twins as I recall.

Every pitcher in the bullpen for more than a week will be asked to pitch in games where their performance will be an important part of winning or losing.  Multiple times. Teams use three or more relievers in games almost daily. Its inevitable every pitcher will be called into close games. You can't just park a guy in the pen and only use him when his performance doesn't matter. To do so would be equivalent to carrying a 7 man oen instead of 8. 

fWAR? Seriously??

Johan Santana pitched in an era when staff usage was different.  Starters would see the 7th inning! You could look it up! BTW, he still managed to be the pitcher of record in 5 games.

 

There is no longer any such animal as a "low leverage reliever."

They don't exist.

[Mark G]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Every pitcher in the bullpen for more than a week will be asked to pitch in games where their performance will be an important part of winning or losing.  Multiple times. Teams use three or more relievers in games almost daily. Its inevitable every pitcher will be called into close games. You can't just park a guy in the pen and only use him when his performance doesn't matter. To do so would be equivalent to carrying a 7 man oen instead of 8. 

fWAR? Seriously??

Johan Santana pitched in an era when staff usage was different.  Starters would see the 7th inning! You could look it up! BTW, he still managed to be the pitcher of record in 5 games.

 

There is no longer any such animal as a "low leverage reliever."

They don't exist.

I know this is not your typical black and white debate with no middle ground, it is entirely each persons opinion, but I have to go with Bean5302 on this one.  To say there is no such thing as a "low leverage reliever" is to say every one of them is a high to mid level reliever, and there simply aren't 240 pitchers on the planet that have that ability, hence the 30 shuttle busses to and from AAA using options on the border line 8th through 11th or 12th guys in your system.  The same goes for starters; there simply are not 150 guys around that you would call #1 through 3 starters.  Your 4th and 5th starters are not on the same level as the top 3.  Nor are your 6th, 7th, and 8th pen guys.  High leverage and low leverage are just slang terms for level of ability, but there are both levels on every team.  

Sure, with extra inning games and games that are tied or very tight throughout the entire game, each reliever is going to see a tense inning now and then throughout the year.  But when 45% of your games are decided by 4 runs or more, win or lose, your bottom end of the pen eats those innings predominately, not your top end guys, again, using the shuttle busses along the way.  It may be just a matter of semantics, but there are high leverage and low leverage, top end and bottom end, etc., relievers; just because they all see the same situations at some point is only a matter of necessity, not a matter of ability.  

It is a great debate.  Somehow I have a hunch I didn't change your mind, though, did I?  😉

[LambchoP]

It may be tough to keep Castellano in the pen all year if he isn't quite ready, but I think he has way too much potential to just give him back to PHI. If we can find a way to keep him and send him back to AAA next year to finish off his development, he could end up a TOR starting pitcher or a set up/closer type of bullpen arm. Canterino and Topa going down doesn't worry me too much. Nobody was counting on them to be impact arms this year. Varland can take Topa's spot. I've got to imagine the twins give up on Canterino. The dude just won't ever be able to pitch without hurting himself.

[Whitey333]

The linè that this is one of the best bullpen in baseball was used last year as well.  That didn't work out so well.  They led all of baseball in letting inherited runs score and by a lot.  The bullpen is supposed to help put out the fire not fan the flames.  In addition our closer last year lost 9 games and blew several save opportunities.  Losing 9 games from your closer was catastrophic.   They are going to need him to be healthy and produce.  In todays game you better have a great bullpen of you plan on being à contender.  Their building the bullpen on the cheap may cost them again.

[bean5302]

6 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Every pitcher in the bullpen for more than a week will be asked to pitch in games where their performance will be an important part of winning or losing.  Multiple times. Teams use three or more relievers in games almost daily. Its inevitable every pitcher will be called into close games. You can't just park a guy in the pen and only use him when his performance doesn't matter. To do so would be equivalent to carrying a 7 man oen instead of 8. 

fWAR? Seriously??

Johan Santana pitched in an era when staff usage was different.  Starters would see the 7th inning! You could look it up! BTW, he still managed to be the pitcher of record in 5 games.

 

There is no longer any such animal as a "low leverage reliever."

They don't exist.

Yes, fWAR, the single best mainstream statistic which can be used today for relievers. Yes, low leverage relievers exist on every single team in MLB. I thought I just addressed that by showing the Guardians had them. 

The leverage index varies on relievers for teams. They have high/low leverage guys.

[old nurse]

12 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

Rice University.

There is now a rule in college baseball one child call the Rice Rule. Pitchers are limited to 110 pitches. Rest days sew mandated by the number of pitches thrown. 

[old nurse]

5 hours ago, Mark G said:

I know this is not your typical black and white debate with no middle ground, it is entirely each persons opinion, but I have to go with Bean5302 on this one.  To say there is no such thing as a "low leverage reliever" is to say every one of them is a high to mid level reliever, and there simply aren't 240 pitchers on the planet that have that ability, hence the 30 shuttle busses to and from AAA using options on the border line 8th through 11th or 12th guys in your system.  The same goes for starters; there simply are not 150 guys around that you would call #1 through 3 starters.  Your 4th and 5th starters are not on the same level as the top 3.  Nor are your 6th, 7th, and 8th pen guys.  High leverage and low leverage are just slang terms for level of ability, but there are both levels on every team.  

Sure, with extra inning games and games that are tied or very tight throughout the entire game, each reliever is going to see a tense inning now and then throughout the year.  But when 45% of your games are decided by 4 runs or more, win or lose, your bottom end of the pen eats those innings predominately, not your top end guys, again, using the shuttle busses along the way.  It may be just a matter of semantics, but there are high leverage and low leverage, top end and bottom end, etc., relievers; just because they all see the same situations at some point is only a matter of necessity, not a matter of ability.  

It is a great debate.  Somehow I have a hunch I didn't change your mind, though, did I?  😉

Jay Jackson, Staurmont and Blewit combined had over 60 innings of pitching last year that were in aggregate rated as low leverage. Sands started the year as a low leverage pitcher. Blowouts happen. With the offensive juggernaut that a healthy Twins team can be with the aged veterans once again finding past glories and the young players hitting their ceilings, there should be plenty of blowouts this year. If you don’t believe that those hitting conditions exist, well there will still be plenty of blowouts

[Riverbrian]

5 hours ago, Mark G said:

I know this is not your typical black and white debate with no middle ground, it is entirely each persons opinion, but I have to go with Bean5302 on this one.  To say there is no such thing as a "low leverage reliever" is to say every one of them is a high to mid level reliever

Low Leverage situations exist.

Containing members of the bullpen to only facing low leverage is impossible and therefore the concept of a low leverage reliever doesn't exist. 

Are they closing? Usually no. Are they coming in with the game 3 to 2 or 4 to 2 in the 6th inning. Yes they are. 

Does a manager have a pecking order of preference. Yes they do. But that pecking order gets pecked at through unavailability because three relievers were used on Monday and five relievers were used on Tuesday. Who is left on Wednesday and who will be left on Thursday? 

People can label pitchers low leverage all they want, but you can't shelter a bullpen guy. 

It's Martha and the Vandelas in the bullpen... Nowhere to run... Nowhere to hide. 

If you believe that putting an 8 deep bullpen staff is impossible. I'll agree it's hard and much much harder when a low leverage guy can be justified.  

[Fatbat]

Castellano is going to get a roster spot for April no matter what the circumstances are. His ceiling is high enough that the FO isnt going to send him back until he completely melts down. Which is doubtful.