Why Losing Out on Billionaire Justin Ishbia Might Be a Win for the Minnesota Twins

[Matthew Taylor]

At first glance, Justin Ishbia backing out of buying the Minnesota Twins seems like a gut punch for fans hoping for deep pockets and aggressive spending. But what if it’s actually a blessing in disguise? A closer look at his track record suggests that the Twins may have dodged a far bigger problem.

Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins' ownership situation took an unexpected turn last month. For weeks, all signs pointed to billionaire Justin Ishbia taking control of the franchise, bringing visions of aggressive spending and bold moves. But in a shocking twist, Ishbia backed out—opting, instead, to invest further in the Twins’ division rivals, the Chicago White Sox.

When the Pohlad family announced their intention to sell the Minnesota Twins this offseason, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that Ishbia would be the one to take over as the team’s new owner. Reports indicated Ishbia was the frontrunner (although perhaps we all also assumed that, simply because of his trmenedous wealth and the fact that his name was leaked), and Twins fans began to envision an ownership group willing to spend big and operate aggressively. But when the expected news drop came, it was the opposite of what many anticipated.

Understandably, this news was met with disappointment from Twins fans. The thought of an owner with deep pockets willing to take financial risks was an exciting proposition. Ishbia, a partial owner of the Phoenix Suns and the brother of Mat Ishbia, the team’s controlling owner, had seemingly represented a shift toward a more aggressive, win-now approach. However, while the initial disappointment is understandable, a closer look at Ishbia’s tenure with the Suns raises the question: was his withdrawal from the Twins’ ownership race actually a blessing in disguise?

Ishbia’s time with the Suns has been anything but stable. Since gaining control, the Suns have made one blockbuster move after another, trading away a promising young core for established stars like Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal. While these trades made headlines and sent a message that the team was all-in, they’ve also left the Suns without much of a future. Phoenix is currently sitting in 9th place in the Western Conference; their roster depth has been depleted; and their future draft capital has been largely exhausted. The constant shakeups have extended beyond the roster as well, with the team now on the verge of hiring its fourth head coach in four seasons. The Suns, once a model of patience and development that built a Finals-contending team in 2021, have since become a cautionary tale of ownership overreach and short-term thinking.

So what does this mean for the Minnesota Twins? Baseball is, of course, a different game than basketball, with no hard salary cap and a much more robust farm system that plays a pivotal role in sustaining success. Even with a wealthier owner, the Twins would still be a mid-market team, and Minnesota would never be able to spend at the levels of the Dodgers, Yankees, or Mets. An owner like Ishbia, with his aggressive, hands-on approach, may have been willing to push the payroll higher, but at what cost? Would he have mortgaged the team’s future by trading away top prospects for short-term gains? Would the Twins have ended up in a situation where they were locked into expensive, aging veterans with no clear long-term plan? Admittedly, since teams can't trade draft picks in MLB the way they can and do in the NBA, there would have to be some ongoing replenishment of the farm, but would an Ishbia-led team strip down the scouting department in favor of heavier investments in flashy, expensive big-league moves?

One of the Twins’ greatest strengths over the years has been their stability. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have built a sustainable model, one that prioritizes development while making calculated moves to improve the roster when necessary. Manager Rocco Baldelli has been in place since 2019, providing consistency and a clear philosophy that has resulted in multiple postseason appearances. Compare that to the Suns, who have been in a near-constant state of flux since the Ishbias took over, and it’s easy to see how the grass isn’t always greener on the other side.

Of course, no one is arguing that the Pohlads have been ideal owners. The frustration with their spending limitations is valid, and a fresh perspective at the ownership level could certainly be beneficial for the franchise. But there’s a difference between being willing to spend and spending recklessly. The best owners in sports aren’t necessarily the ones who make the biggest splashes, but rather the ones who provide financial support, hire the right people, let them do their jobs, and then get out of the way.

Would Ishbia have been that kind of owner? Based on his track record in Phoenix, there’s reason to doubt it. The allure of an aggressive, risk-taking billionaire was strong, but the reality of what that approach has done to the Suns is a reminder that big spending and constant movement don’t always equal success. In the end, Twins fans may have dodged a bullet. Yes, Mat is the head honcho and has the final word on those moves, but so far, it's been hard to discern a significant gap between the two when it comes to risk tolerance or approach.

The question of who will ultimately buy the team remains unanswered, and until that happens, there will continue to be uncertainty about the Twins’ future. Inarguably, courting Ishbia for months and losing him late in the process sets them back. But while many fans are lamenting the loss of a seemingly ambitious owner, it may not be the disaster some are imagining. The Twins’ next owner will shape the trajectory of the franchise for years to come, and rather than simply hoping for someone willing to spend, perhaps the real hope should be for someone who understands that smart, sustainable decision-making is just as important as a willingness to open the checkbook.

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What do you think? Are Twins fans really missing out by not landing Ishbia, or was his withdrawal actually a good thing for the franchise’s long-term future? Let us know your thoughts in the comments.

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[ashbury]

"Those grapes would have tasted sour anyway, probably .... "

For reference, compare the discussion in this article in October.

Then:   Spending doesn’t guarantee success, but as the Dodgers and Yankees remind us, not spending almost certainly guarantees failure.

Now:  smart, sustainable decision-making is just as important

The messages are not at odds, but certainly the emphasis became different.

[Doctor Gast]

I'm a Twins fan, I'm not familiar with how the NBA works. IMO in MLB the FO is the driving force. The Twins need be shaken up. Falvey can stay where he is & be responsible for the pitching, but all the other duties need to be transferred to a more baseball smart & better trade negotiating FO. Hopefully the new owners would have enough interest in the team to do that. 

I agree that spending money doesn't ensure success, you have to be smart in what you do.

[nicksaviking]

I want new owners, but I never understood why everyone was so excited for this particular billionaire. 

They ALL have deep pockets, including the ones currently running the team. There's a good chance a new owner will do something splashy right away to build immediate goodwill and put his or her mark on the team. However, there's next to no chance that when this person is announced that we will have any idea how they plan on operating this club three or four years from now. Smart money is on that it's going to look pretty much exactly like we have it now.

[NYCTK]

Pure cope. 

[rdehring]

Count me among those, perhaps few, who remain hopeful that all deals will not materialize and the Pohlad's will remain owners of the Twins well into the future.  Years beyond my time watching them.

Over the past few years they have dealt with a pandemic and explosion of their television contracts and a big part of their revenue.  Two years ago was one of the most exciting runs in their history.  And they would have been a playoff team again last year had not nearly the entire team either gotten injured or gone in the tank the last six weeks or so of the season.  I continue to appreciate a team who is managed like a business and spends within their means.  Yes, management and ownership could have handled a few situations better, but who among us hasn't done or said the wrong thing from time to time.

With an exciting group of young players on the team and a pipeline, hell, a storm water run-off sized pipeline of pitching talent nearly ready the future is bright.  Very bright.

 

[Parfigliano]

34 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I want new owners, but I never understood why everyone was so excited for this particular billionaire. 

They ALL have deep pockets, including the ones currently running the team. There's a good chance a new owner will do something splashy right away to build immediate goodwill and put his or her mark on the team. However, there's next to no chance that when this person is announced that we will have any idea how they plan on operating this club three or four years from now. Smart money is on that it's going to look pretty much exactly like we have it now.

People were excited about this billionaire because he was the only billionaire publicly linked to a Twins sale not named Taylor.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

It’s pretty unknowable whether he would have been a good owner for the Twins because we don’t know what is going on inside his head.  He’s got plenty of money, as will whoever buys the team.  He’s (or his brother) made some decisions that don’t work so well in the NBA world, but MLB is a different world where you CAN spend your way out of trouble if you screw up.  Whoever buys the team will probably make a little splash to get people on board with the team ownership, but what happens five years down the road is anyone’s guess.  He might have been excellent or he might have been terrible.  It’s hard to know and not worth the time to speculate since we are definitely moving on to someone new, hopefully quickly.  

[Squirrel]

28 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

People were excited about this billionaire because he was the only billionaire publicly linked to a Twins sale not named Taylor.

Yes. It still makes me a bit suspicious that that was made so public. But who knows.

[glunn]

It would be nice to have a new owner who can figure out how to better monetize the television rights, as well as increase attendance.  I think that better attendance might generate more of a home field advantage, which would generate more wins, more attendance and more TV revenue.

[Eris]

Just for completeness, the Suns have traded their first round draft pick thru 2032.  In some cases they have a swap where they have swapped first round picks for whichever is worse (which could mean retaining their original pick). 

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

Pure cope. 

100% this. Now we’re stuck with the Pohlads again for the foreseeable future. None of us wanted that to happen. 

[Vanimal46]

Idk if Ishbia was the right guy. None of us do. But I’m very confident the brothers would have been better than the Pohlads over their 30+ year run. We know the Pohlads will never add to a team. Even when the stars all align like 2019, and pick any year from 2003-2009. We know the Pohlads don’t care about winning a WS if it means going over a self-policed salary cap. 

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I want new owners, but I never understood why everyone was so excited for this particular billionaire. 

Ever have a “friend" who falls for a girl on tinder before they even meet? Lots of Twins fans did just that.

It was the only vision they had, so it was the vision they fell in love with. And as the article points out, the reality often does not match the profile pictures.

[bean5302]

Going back to 2017, percentage chance of making the MLB playoffs based on wins
2024 - 82 = 0.0%
2023 - 87 = 23.5% (4:1)
2022 - 78 = 0.0%
2021 - 73 = 0.0%
2020 - N/A
2019 - 101 = 100.0% (1:1)
2018 - 78 = 0.0%
2017 - 85 = 8.8% (11:1)
This consistency we have has not been a strength.

[bean5302]

People are excited (including me) about the prospect of a new ownership group who wants to win championships, not play .500 ball in the division and hope something happens.

[Hrbeks Divot]

I’ve been generally happy with this front office given the financial constraints that they’ve worked under. If any new owner is willing to put an additional $30 million into the payroll on a regular basis I’ll be happy.  We’ll be able to compete and the level of consistency can be expected to be around 90 wins instead of 78-82.

[bean5302]

7 minutes ago, Hrbeks Divot said:

I’ve been generally happy with this front office given the financial constraints that they’ve worked under. If any new owner is willing to put an additional $30 million into the payroll on a regular basis I’ll be happy.  We’ll be able to compete and the level of consistency can be expected to be around 90 wins instead of 78-82.

No team has spent more money than Minnesota in the AL Central since Falvey's start.

 

	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	Total
MIN	121	116	125	60	121	150	156	129	978
CHW	85	72	91	54	140	203	163	140	948
DET	188	131	114	43	84	135	119	97	911
KCR	148	130	104	35	92	93	96	125	823
CLE	132	142	107	39	51	66	89	105	731

Minnesota is the only team who hasn't dropped below $93MM in the division in a full season. It's not about about being handicapped. Their payrolls have generally been sufficient, though there are certainly failures on the part of ownership, but the Twins' front office doesn't understand how to budget, either.
 

[tony&rodney]

25 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

No team has spent more money than Minnesota in the AL Central since Falvey's start.

 

	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	Total
MIN	121	116	125	60	121	150	156	129	978
CHW	85	72	91	54	140	203	163	140	948
DET	188	131	114	43	84	135	119	97	911
KCR	148	130	104	35	92	93	96	125	823
CLE	132	142	107	39	51	66	89	105	731

Minnesota is the only team who hasn't dropped below $93MM in the division in a full season. It's not about about being handicapped. Their payrolls have generally been sufficient, though there are certainly failures on the part of ownership, but the Twins' front office doesn't understand how to budget, either.
 

Thank you. I have been arguing this exact point this entire offseason.  The problem we should have with the Pohlads is that they are way too hands off and disinterested in baseball. They have focused in a different manner, which may be excellent except they are not tuned into how their money is spent on their baseball team. In almost every way, the Pohlads are a dream for the front office people because they are so distant and noncritical of whatever occurs with the team. I sincerely hope the team sells soon at the price they wish to receive for everyone's benefit.

This article makes some pretty severe assertions. Not everyone worries about the ownership issues. It just doesn't affect us much because we have zero say in the matter. The point on team philosophy is interesting. What is the philosophy? To keep it short, I believe we should avoid all the angst about payroll, owners, and puffy dreams to just keep to the play on the field.

[ashbury]

14 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Not everyone worries about the ownership issues. It just doesn't affect us much because we have zero say in the matter.

As opposed to the massive amount of say we have with Rocco's platooning tendencies or Edouard Julien's propensity to look at third strikes?  😀

[BD57]

The Suns are chaotic, and for all the chaos, they've achieved little to nothing.

While increasing $$$$ available for payroll would help, in the end, the money needs to be well spent.   

The Phoenix Suns are not an example of "money well spent."

[Aerodeliria]

You've added some extra spin to that curve ball of yours ;-)

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

People were excited about this billionaire because he was the only billionaire publicly linked to a Twins sale not named Taylor.

And this guy was going to be better than Taylor why exactly? Don't the Wolves have the highest payroll in the NBA? 

[HerbieFan]

Given the mid-market that is the Twin Cities, simply spending more has never been the issue for me.  It's how tone-deaf the Pohlads have been in regards to their fan base.  They simply are not baseball fans, they are businessmen.  The time after the playoffs in 2023 when ownership comes out and says they're cutting payroll is, in a nutshell, what is wrong with their ownership.  No one expects them to overspend on a yearly basis, but you have to strike when the iron is hot in baseball.  Hitting the gas pedal when the winning window is open would go a LONG way toward engaging their long-suffering fans.

[Bodie]

10 hours ago, rdehring said:

Count me among those, perhaps few, who remain hopeful that all deals will not materialize and the Pohlad's will remain owners of the Twins well into the future.  Years beyond my time watching them.

Over the past few years they have dealt with a pandemic and explosion of their television contracts and a big part of their revenue.  Two years ago was one of the most exciting runs in their history.  And they would have been a playoff team again last year had not nearly the entire team either gotten injured or gone in the tank the last six weeks or so of the season.  I continue to appreciate a team who is managed like a business and spends within their means.  Yes, management and ownership could have handled a few situations better, but who among us hasn't done or said the wrong thing from time to time.

With an exciting group of young players on the team and a pipeline, hell, a storm water run-off sized pipeline of pitching talent nearly ready the future is bright.  Very bright.

 

C'mon!!!!

These are Minnesota fans. They demand quality!  

They demand winners.  Like the T-puppies.  Or the Gophers.  Or whatever y'all call uour North Stars' "replacements".  Or best yet, the all-time winners, YOUR MINNESOTA VIKINGS!!!

[Doctor Gast]

Over spending for brought in, washed-up veterans, in place of capable inhouse players? Where have I seen that before? Sounds familiar?

I don't fault the Pohlads for not spending the money that many wanted on big-name FAs, the Pohlads have spent more than the rest of our competitors in the Central (I doubt the next owners would do much better if any). But I do fault the Pohlads for not caring for the Twins. They have created a friendship with Falvey that allowed him to completely take over the Twins (& promoted his yes-men) in areas that he's totally incapable of managing, therefore this mismanagement has held the Twins back, not lack of spending. In the case of the Twins, stability isn't a positive point. I hope that maintaining Falvey in control of everything, wasn't a stipulation in the sale contract.

[Major League Ready]

16 hours ago, Hrbeks Divot said:

I’ve been generally happy with this front office given the financial constraints that they’ve worked under. If any new owner is willing to put an additional $30 million into the payroll on a regular basis I’ll be happy.  We’ll be able to compete and the level of consistency can be expected to be around 90 wins instead of 78-82.

You are assuming / projecting 8-12 wins from $30M in spending which is one win for every $3M spent.  We have a mountain of data that tells us that $30M is worth less than 3 wins.  This projection is not remotely realistic from high-end free agents.  Carlos Correa is not going to produce 12 WAR.  He has averaged 3.8 WAR for his career. 

The only way the kind of production you have suggested is going to happen is with lower end free agents.  Carlos Santana produced 1 WAR per $2.5M in spending.  MAT produced 1 WAR for every 2.25M spent.  Ty Franz could realistically produce 1 WAR of even more for every $1M spent but more premium free agents rarely produce anywhere near the levels you have assumed.  These are not the players fans wish for in free agency.   Now, if they spent the money wisely on extensions, that $30M might yield 5-6 wins on average.

[dxpavelka]

The next guy might not be what rube nation thinks he will be either.

[dxpavelka]

11 hours ago, Hrbeks Divot said:

I’ve been generally happy with this front office given the financial constraints that they’ve worked under. If any new owner is willing to put an additional $30 million into the payroll on a regular basis I’ll be happy.  We’ll be able to compete and the level of consistency can be expected to be around 90 wins instead of 78-82.

The current owner put that additional money into the payroll in 2023.  And was immediately met with calls for more.  There will always be multiple teams spending far more money than the Twins.  Almost all of them will not be rewarded with a championship for their spending. 

[TwinsDr2021]

11 hours ago, rdehring said:

Two years ago was one of the most exciting runs in their history. 

I guess that depends on what you mean by history, I mean this team has won a couple of world series and made some good runs. Nothing in this FO tenure would I consider top 5 for me, but I am 50+. And in reality two of the last three years have been closer to the early 80's teams for me than the late 80's early 90's teams. 2019 home run race was pretty cool but that was also the start of me thinking Rocco wasn't a good manager and while he has improved I think his success will be in his second job.