What if the Twins Don't Make Any More Offseason Moves?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

29 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

If no additional moves are made I’ll grade this offseason as a failure. This roster is not good enough to be anything more than fighting for the last wild card spot. I want them to pick a direction because being stuck in mediocrity doesn’t do much for me. I would accept a step back in 2025 if that means building for something better than 85 wins. They didn’t have the bats last year, or 2023, or 2022, or 2021 to truly compete. 

agreed, Falvey needs to make a move or two, or the offseason is a failure. Even if it is a failure, this team can be competitive. 

The scores the 4th most runs in the AL last year. 5th most runs in AL ‘23. Is that not competitive?

I will always prefer competitive to rebuild. Rebuilds suck! 

[Brandon]

Don’t despair over the lack of transactions.  Bargain Bin season is almost upon us.  Sure we will trade Paddack and try to trade Dobnak but a Polanco discount / value rebuilding contract is just around the corner.  Someone who can play first maybe and a little bit at other positions too.  But Seth is right, the Twins don’t have many if any needs at the moment.  

[Vanimal46]

4 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

agreed, Falvey needs to make a move or two, or the offseason is a failure. Even if it is a failure, this team can be competitive. 

The scores the 4th most runs in the AL last year. 5th most runs in AL ‘23. Is that not competitive?

I will always prefer competitive to rebuild. Rebuilds suck! 

I’ll bet we are worse than 4th most runs in the AL in 2025. We haven’t had a real rebuild in a decade. We’ve been trudging along in the 75-85 win window and that’s not much better. 

[tony&rodney]

1 minute ago, Vanimal46 said:

This offseason has really highlighted how unhealthy this professional sport is right now. The Twins and Mariners are 2 out of about 10 teams that could contend with another investment or 2 but they’re all stuck in place afraid to spend a single dollar. 

I don't think it is fear. The economics have pinched over half of MLB to a level of spending that is half of the top revenue teams. There are a few teams that are scraping the barrel and should be spending more, such as Miami, Pittsburgh, and the A's. Most of the rest are wondering when those NFL/NBA media deals are arriving. A team like the Mets will make money on Soto because the valuation increase of that team will pay for the entire contract  in a year or two, not to mention the increase in ticket sales, ads, media, and other dollars. Things are tight and it isn't just the Twins going through this stretch right now.

Teams are forced to be "creative" and this applies to the Twins too. They are not at a disadvantage financially versus  two thirds of MLB. We are forced to wait it out and hope for the best from the final roster configuration.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

40 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

If no additional moves are made I’ll grade this offseason as a failure. This roster is not good enough to be anything more than fighting for the last wild card spot. I want them to pick a direction because being stuck in mediocrity doesn’t do much for me. I would accept a step back in 2025 if that means building for something better than 85 wins. They didn’t have the bats last year, or 2023, or 2022, or 2021 to truly compete. 

I would love to have some players added, but it doesn't look like that's in the budget.  Offensively, there's no black hole going into the season, which hasn't always been the case.  They indeed have a number of individual question marks going into the season, but if they need three infield spots to work out, I choose to believe that at least three of Lewis, Miranda, Julien, Lee, Keaschall, and Castro will provide above average offense.  Will one of them be bad?  Probably, but it is also likely that one of them could be very good.  I would rather give the at bats to someone with potential upside than to a washed up veteran or a quad A fill in. 

If you think they haven't had the bats the last four years, then we are probably letting the perfect get in the way of the good.  You're absolutely correct that the bats aren't as good as 2019, when they were a murderer's row, but they were a lot closer to the top than the bottom for the past four years.  Consistency was notably absent at the end of last season, but I think the bats will be there. 

If everything goes right, it's a 90+ win team -- the pitching could carry them there.  If everything goes wrong -- injuries, etc, it's a 75 win team.  My best guess is 85-86 wins.  You can be not satisfied with that, but I'd rather be in a pennant race than relegated to the second division purgatory for a bunch of years.  We went through that in the 70's, the 80's, and the 90's.  It was too painful for me.  They were so bad that I practically stopped following the team and had to keep relearning the players' names when they got competitive again!

[miller761]

We just need to improve the basic fundamentals of baseball. Situational hitting, bunting and better baserunning. If we do that our runs scored will increase. That coupled with our pitching and just plain good defense will win games. In my mind the current roster is adequate to good. We need coaching staff to teach and enforce the basics I listed above. You can not manage or coach this team the same way as you manage or coached the 2019 team. I hope that these fundamentals are taught and enforced in spring training every day not just on the practice fields but in every spring training game. 

[palmspringstwinsfan]

On a related topic, seems to me the 1B for the next several years should be Royce Lewis. We have plenty of people to play 2nd (Castro, Julien, Hellman, Martin and Keuchel is coming soon). Lee is a good 3B and Miranda is best used as an almost everyday DH who fills in at 1B and 3B. Lewis is a much better athlete than Miranda or Julien and, in time, could become a great 1B. 

[JADBP]

I boldly predict that the Twins will eclipse the White Sox this coming season.  Beyond that--with the management stuck in neutral--I expect a repeat of last year.  Same management plan, same management, same team (or even slightly worse without Santana/Kepler), there is just to reason why the results will improve.  Aging a fragile team one year won't help.  

Meanwhile, all of the teams around us are improving...save for the CWS.  

Oh wait...I forgot that we have new batting coaches!  We are gonna win some games....like I said, we will be better than the CWS.  YAY! 

[Doctor Wu]

On paper this is a good team, but I don't think we are truly a playoff-caliber team as things stand. Hey, maybe EVERYTHING will go as planned and ALL the players stay healthy and players like Buxton, Lewis, Correa, Lopez, Ryan, Ober, and the bullpen crew all have career years. But ... I don't see this happening. We still need some fine tuning in places and perhaps more depth in the bullpen. I'm usually hopeful and optimistic by nature, but honestly I'm not feeling very excited about the Twins this year. Other teams in the division, such as the Tigers and Royals look much stronger, but the Twins continue to tread water.

[Fezig]

I'm not too worried about trades at this point. Yes, there was a colossal choke. A historic choke. A "my eyes are burning by seeing what I just saw" choke, but, it doesn't mean the team doesn't have talent. The choke means the team was in first place, and lost it. Generally speaking, a first place team has talent, and this one does. There are plenty of players (we know who they are) that are all star caliber and need to play an entire season to prevent another choke. 

Additionally, in 87 the Twins didn't trade for Reardon until February and didn't get Gladden until right before the season was underway. 

[dxpavelka]

"I'm no math major, but having three dudes in the top 21 when there are 30 teams seems good. The Dodgers are the only other team to boast that claim."

I've been saying this since the middle of last year.  And, actually, before Joe Ryan went down that number was a little better than 21.

[Major League Ready]

9 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

This offseason has really highlighted how unhealthy this professional sport is right now. The Twins and Mariners are 2 out of about 10 teams that could contend with another investment or 2 but they’re all stuck in place afraid to spend a single dollar. 

Alonso turned down $150M from the Mets and he is not signing a short-term deal as you suggested earlier.  To frame this as "afraid to spend a single dollar" is fanatical.  While I understand that those of us interested enough to follow the off-season and come here to discuss it are all at least a little fanatical.  However, if we remain rational it's not at all hard to understand why Seattle and Minnesota have not signed Alonso.  Refusing to accept the reality that baseball is a business will result in perennial disappointment.    

[jmlease1]

12 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

So far this offseason this has more or less been my thought - Falvey has the team he wants. Having said that, I will not be very surprised if a couple of deals are completed. I'm not as down on this collection as some but sure wish defense was a higher priority.

I kinda doubt Falvey has the team he wants: I'm sure he'd like to have brought in a RH slugging 1B/OF/DH type to shore up the lineup, but ownership isn't going to allow it with the budget. They're holding the line tightly on payroll, especially with the sale pending, almost certainly to make sure they extract as much profit as possible before finally moving on. It's so exhausting and frankly stupid, because this team has a lot of talent on it and with other teams like Cle and Det not making significant moves (and KC mostly just hanging on to what they have), there's still a window in the AL Central.

Despite the collapse last season, the Twins weren't a bad team in 2024. Finished with a winning record and should have been able to hold a WC slot until wheels came off the wagon in Sept. Outside of Santana, we haven't lost anything significant. (Kepler wasn't good last season, Thielbar finished the year ok but hadn't been good for most of the season) There's several players that should be ripe for improvement over 2024 (Julien, Lee, Lewis) and others that will improve the team if they're simply able to play more for the Twins in 2025 (Wallner, Larnach, Correa, Buxton). There's a lot of depth in the pitching staff along with real top-end talent.

It's incredibly disappointing that a team that should be able to compete under any reasonably objective assessment can't add anything to help push themselves over the top because ownership. They're desperately trying not to lose any money on the team, and through their short-sightedness they're probably going to lose more money because of such an uninspiring off-season. Early season ticket sales are going to be garbage because of the way the team finished and the fact that ownership has denied them the ability to improve. They'll probably find a way to somehow screw up the TV and streaming again too.

It's too bad. I think this team is still going to be competitive even without a substantial move, unless they're forced to dump a bunch more salary so the Pohlads can improve their bottom line a little more.

[TwinsDr2021]

As is, is this a playoff team? iffy at best, pitching wise they could be one of the top staffs in the American league, or with an injury or three they could be at the bottom. Same thing in on the offensive side with a little less upside, I don't see any improvement on defensive (except health from CC and BB).

Next season I will more than likely do exactly what the team did this off season. Watch the games but keep my checkbook in my back pocket, hope for the best but never fully invest in the team because well why would I when the owners won't?

So go Twins!

[Cory Engelhardt]

Hi Seth,

I do agree that the cupboard isn't bare. They need some luck with health, but I think (if you compare this to an old house) the "bones" are good on this roster.

That said, they've said specifically they want a right handed hitting outfielder and a true 1B. They also still have 2 open 40 man roster spots. 

I'm be beyond shocked if they don't fill their 40 man roster, and add the positions they say they are looking for. My guess is via trade, but still.

[Craig Arko]

No more moves? I predict the Sun continues to rise in the East.

[CharlieDee]

Being a fan of a team that claims it needs to "right size" the budget is no fun. Falvey may as well pack his bags and take a long vacation during the off season.

[Jeff K]

I suspect there will be moves because the Twins over their payroll goals...and that seems like the primary driver for our current ownership.  It would not hurt my feelings to see the Twins stay with what they have given my belief that future moves will only hurt the team by offloading payroll.  We don't have a good plan at catcher so Vasquez isn't a great move.  Moving our super sub Castro won't help the team and Paddack could actually help the pen and provide depth to the starting pitching IFFFFFF he is healthy...I know, I know.  Given all of that, I think the Twins trade Paddack for a song.

[David Maro]

The only change that will be made is raising the ticket prices. All the fans attending the games will see a 3rd or 4th place team in the central. They still have the same FO and manager who loves platooning players on a whim.

[TopGunn#22]

I'm surprised that Seattle's rotation wouldn't be right there with the Dodgers and Twins (Castillo, Kirby and Gilbert with Bryce Miller and Brian Woo holding down #4 & #5).  In fact, I can't believe Seattle isn't #1.

I think the Twins have plenty of talent to compete and I think Cleveland is worse without Gimenez and Naylor at 2B & 1B.  Yes, they have some highly thought of prospects moving into those spots although Manzardo will probably DH more with Santana at 1B.  But I think Santana is primed for a fall off a cliff and we in Minnesota are all to familiar with the mercurial nature of Rookies (Julien, Lee, Lewis).  There are highs...and there are lows.

As good as Clase is, can he come close to repeating his phenomenal 2024 in 2025?  And how about the rest of Cleveland's BP??  Sure seems like there could be some regression.

So yes, I think we can compete if we don't make any moves.  Especially if one of those moves is trading Pablo Lopez or Carlos Correa.

But we have an unbalanced roster with noticeable question marks at 3B, 2B and 1B and maybe a RH hitting OF (although I would personally like to see Wallner, Larnach and eventually E-Rod get AB's against LHP).  Where Lewis lands will determine where Lee lands.  I'm O.K. with Miranda at 1B.  I wonder how much time Julien will get to learn 1B with the signing of Ford and acquisition of Gasper.  I'm really curious what will be done with Keaschall and Eales if Castro is traded. 

If it was up to me, I'd just roll with a rotation of Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Festa and SWR with Zebby in reserve.  I hope Funderburk can bounce back but I'd feel better if they landed someone impactful as a LH relief pitcher.  If cutting payroll is paramount than I just dump Paddack for whatever to trim $7.5 million.

I think Cleveland is due for some regression unless Tristen McKenzie and Shane Bieber are healthy and pitching like they were 3 years ago.  If Detroit gets Bregman I'm worried.  The Tigers have been moving with a purpose this off season.  The Royals scare me because they've got Bobby Witt Jr.  He's a level of AWESOME that nobody on our team comes close to. 

So yes, if we make no moves at all, I can live with that because that means Pablo is still leading our rotation, Correa is still our SS and Duran is still our closer.  But I would like to see a couple moves made that don't involve any of those 3 guys.    

[hitterscount]

They are close to being a playoff team, might even sneak in in the weak AL central. A legit first baseman and another RP are needed and should be able to be accomplished through trades.

However, with that.  this is the team that lives and dies by the longball even though there are no legit power threats. They are slow and unable to steal bases to generate runs, pretty poor at hitting with RISP and refuse to advance runners in obvious bunt situations. They have a manager that pinch hits i early innings draining the bench leaving no options at the end of the game. 

They were a bad defensive team, manager that pulls starters early that are cruising, uses his closer willy nilly with so many head scratching decisions.

With that they have talent (when healthy) have a quality starting rotation and some exciting prospects. This team cannot be sold fast enough to bring in some positive changes and fresh energy.

[jmlease1]

1 minute ago, hitterscount said:

They are close to being a playoff team, might even sneak in in the weak AL central. A legit first baseman and another RP are needed and should be able to be accomplished through trades.

It's funny, we've become so accustomed to this being the narrative on the AL Central, but it's really not true any longer. CWS are bad. likely still the worst team in baseball. But the rest are not. The AL West is probably the weakest again this year: the A's are still bad, betting the under on the Angels is almost always a winning proposition, and I'm not exactly impressed with Texas. Seattle would look worse in a better division; they got crushed by everyone in the AL central except the dreadful CWS.

[tony&rodney]

Most of the people on Twins Daily would like to see the Twins add a player or two to strengthen their roster. The difference between us is in how this is done. A few people believe the Team can sign a fair free agent or two. Others are hoping for a helpful trade or three. Seth has posited the what if - no change.

The pitching could be really good. Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Festa, and SWR followed by Matthews, Morris, Raya, and Lewis is youthful but good. Paddack, if kept, could be a very solid swing pitcher. The pen is fine.

No doubt the lineup of bats is unsettled and unpredictable. My preference was to improve the defense on the field through a couple of deals. Perhaps a minor improvement can be done by moving a few players. C-Jeffers & Vazquez, 1B-Lewis, 2B-Keaschall or Eeles, 3B-Lee, SS-Correa, 1B/3B/DH-Miranda, 1B/2B/DH-Julien, if/of-Castro, utility-Martin, LF-Rodriguez, CF-Buxton, RF-Wallner, DH/COF-Larnach, OF-Keirsey Jr. 

Yes, it would be nice to see some change, like a big RH bat but this team looks like a solid 85 win team that can easily be 91 or 79. There are still a couple of months plus left for us to wait out the roster.

[Riverbrian]

15 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

Potential Lineup vs RHP: Brooks Lee 2B, Carlos Correa SS, Trevor Larnach LF, Royce Lewis 3B, Byron Buxton CF, Matt Wallner RF, Edouard Julien 1B, Ryan Jeffers C, Willi Castro DH. 

Potential Lineup vs LHP: Byron Buxton CF, Carlos Correa SS, Royce Lewis 3B, Ryan Jeffers C, Jose Miranda 1B, Brooks Lee 2B, Austin Martin LF, Matt Wallner/Trevor Larnach RF, Willi Castro DH. 

Miranda sitting against RHP. I get it... logical in consideration of how they do their business. Someone has to step aside for Julien. 

But... yet...

Miranda Last year:

.856 OPS against Right Handers. Ranked 4th on the team in that regard. Ranked 6th in AB's against RHP.  

And of course the less stable smaller sample of his 2024 work against the lefty. 

.573 OPS against Left Handers. Ranked 15th on the team in that regard. Ranked 4th in AB's against LHP. 

Regardless... Yeah... this is probably what the Twins will do with Miranda. Make him a short side specialist until injuries force him into more regular playing time. 

These are the types of things that happen when adherence to the platoon controls roster decisions. 

 

 

[hitterscount]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

It's funny, we've become so accustomed to this being the narrative on the AL Central, but it's really not true any longer. CWS are bad. likely still the worst team in baseball. But the rest are not. The AL West is probably the weakest again this year: the A's are still bad, betting the under on the Angels is almost always a winning proposition, and I'm not exactly impressed with Texas. Seattle would look worse in a better division; they got crushed by everyone in the AL central except the dreadful CWS.

You are correct, the AL. West is probably not as strong. More worriesome is that Detroit and  KC  have possibly bypassed. us, which makes next season even more tumultuous if Rocco continues with the same strategies with the same team and no upgrades with the projected 1st base rotation and no solid LHP relief option. 

[bean5302]

13 hours ago, Hubie29 said:

Because he thinks it is just that good? Or because he knows he can't spend any money? Two very different reasons that will result in two very different outcomes. If it's the first reason, he better find another profession. 

 

13 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

We all know it’s the latter. Someone like Pete Alonso would be a great fit here on a short term deal but the budget is maxed out with the Pohlads. 

Money is not the end all scenario because the Twins have major trade assets. So there would have to be a caveat where prospect assets were also locked down in addition to money. I suspect the Pohlad family  has tied Falvey's hands in that regard based on what we saw last year.

[Elliot]

No matter who they sign or trade for, or if no moves are made, the season will depend on the health of 3 veterans (Buxton, Correa, and Lewis), and the maturation of a half dozen young veterans. To be fair, Lewis fits in both groups. Throw in a couple of rookies (Lee and Rodriguez), and I have a great deal of hope and optimism. I know that health for the big 3 is very optimistic, but a season where 2 out of the 3 are contributing regularly is not out of the question. Same for the young vets. Half to 2/3 of them performing at or near what their past peak shows as legitimate potential looks pretty good. 
I know we all would like to see a bright shiny new toy, but it probably isn’t happening. 
Also keep in mind that $130M inflation adjusted is right in the range of where they have been for the past decade. The $150 to $160 year was an outlier. 

[Vanimal46]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Alonso turned down $150M from the Mets and he is not signing a short-term deal as you suggested earlier.  To frame this as "afraid to spend a single dollar" is fanatical.  While I understand that those of us interested enough to follow the off-season and come here to discuss it are all at least a little fanatical.  However, if we remain rational it's not at all hard to understand why Seattle and Minnesota have not signed Alonso.  Refusing to accept the reality that baseball is a business will result in perennial disappointment.    

Alonso is still waiting for a deal and likely not to receive the $150 million he was previously offered. Baseball is a business and business is not good for about 20 of the 30 teams. 

It’s January and the Twins are 1 of 6 teams who haven’t spent a single dollar on an MLB contract. 12 out of 30 teams have spent less than $10 million. MLB is an unhealthy organization right now. 

[Franz]

11 hours ago, palmspringstwinsfan said:

On a related topic, seems to me the 1B for the next several years should be Royce Lewis. We have plenty of people to play 2nd (Castro, Julien, Hellman, Martin and Keuchel is coming soon). Lee is a good 3B and Miranda is best used as an almost everyday DH who fills in at 1B and 3B. Lewis is a much better athlete than Miranda or Julien and, in time, could become a great 1B. 

This.

The Twins need to stop moving players to their 'position of mediocrity'. Unless Lewis is able to show at camp this spring that he has reversed his decline in speed and quickness and improved his throwing accuracy, why not have a potentially good glove (relative to the position) at 1B rather than a relatively average or below-average glove at 2B (and as long as he has to learn a new position, shouldn't a corner be easier and more palatable for him to learn than 2B)? Meanwhile, Miranda has graded out poorly at both 3B and 1B, but has shown that, when healthy, he can hit both RH and LH pitching. In my mind there should be no such thing as 'too young to be a full time DH' (see (admittedly cherry-picked examples) Ortiz, D. and Rooker, B. for historical perspective).

[bean5302]

14 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Alonso is still waiting for a deal and likely not to receive the $150 million he was previously offered. Baseball is a business and business is not good for about 20 of the 30 teams. 

It’s January and the Twins are 1 of 6 teams who haven’t spent a single dollar on an MLB contract. 12 out of 30 teams have spent less than $10 million. MLB is an unhealthy organization right now. 

Alonso is going to struggle to get much over $100MM in my opinion. The rumor was the Mets have chopped their offer from the 6/150 extension offer they made last year to 3/90 with player opt outs after each season most recently. The Giants have also been tied to Alonso, and the perennially bad idea Angels are mulling a run at him as well.

Alonso is this year's Boras fail, I think.