What if the Twins Don't Make Any More Offseason Moves?

[Seth Stohs]

It's been a quiet offseason for the Twins and their fans, but what does that mean for the 2025 Twins roster? Is there enough talent and depth to compete in the AL Central?

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

It has been a painfully slow offseason for the Minnesota Twins and their fans. Aside from the basic, offseason business (40-man roster decisions, Rule 5, arbitration), the Twins have made a handful of minor-league signings and one trade. That’s it. 

So, if you’re a Twins fan like me, I’m sure you’re often asked, “Are they going to do anything this offseason?” 

In the early years of the Derek Falvey Era, the answer would have been, “Certainly.” It may not have always happened before February, but the Twins were active, even in some price range sections that they previously had not shopped in. Fans understand that there is a budget, but with Falvey, the sense was that he pushed that every year. Until last year when ownership insisted that he cut $30-35 million from the payroll. And now this offseason, the goal is to remain pretty similar to 2024, if not down just a little bit. 

We have seen free agents such as Max Kepler, Kyle Farmer, Caleb Thielbar, and Carlos Santana sign elsewhere as free agents. Even guys like Diego Castillo (the pitcher), Steven Okert, Matt Bowman, Caleb Boushley, Jay Jackson have signed elsewhere while Manuel Margot is still unsigned. The Twins did bring back Scott Blewett and Daniel Duarte on minor-league deals though. Alex Kirilloff abruptly retired. 

But that doesn’t mean that the cupboard is bare. Honestly, it doesn’t necessarily have to mean that the team can’t compete to return to the playoffs in 2025. 

What might the Twins Opening Day roster look like if the season had to start today? Note: the season doesn’t actually start for nearly three months, so assume that the Twins will have a few more transactions by then. 

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Starting Rotation (5): RHP Pablo Lopez, RHP  Bailey Ober, RHP Joe Ryan, RHP Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP Chris Paddack

Summary: Pablo Lopez is a borderline ace. His salary jumps precipitously in 2025, but with some of the offseason free agent pitcher signings, it appears that the Twins were wise to lock him up nearly two years ago. Bailey Ober continues to improve. He has pitched quite well since he was first called up to the big leagues. He is in his first year of arbitration. So is Joe Ryan who also has continued to get better and make adjustments since his debut. Unfortunately, he missed the final six weeks of the season but should be on track to return by opening day. Simeon Woods Richardson came on early last season and did not give up his rotation spot. He made his starts and he showed some signs that he can be a mid-rotation starter. And, I’ve included Chris Paddack here for now as well even though rumors are that the Twins may want to trade him. When healthy, he can provide some quality innings. He just hasn’t been healthy since joining the Twins. 

Next In Line: RHP David Festa, RHP Zebby Matthews 

David Festa came up and also showed signs of high potential starting stuff. He’s got the pitches and generally throws strikes. He will just need to be more consistent with them Zebby Matthews began the 2024 season with the High-A Cedar Rapids Kernels. He dominated his way through the system, and by mid-August made his debut. Certainly he was rushed a little quicker than they may have wanted, but the stuff is there. He could use time in St. Paul to continue developing, but these two are ready when needed. 

Others on the 40-man roster: RHP Travis Adams, LHP Brent Headrick, RHP Marco Raya. 

Others in the upper levels: RHP Andrew Morris, RHP Cory Lewis, RHP Huascar Ynoa, RHP Randy Dobnak, LHP Christian MacLeod, RHP C.J. Culpepper, RHP Kyle Jones, RHP Pierson Ohl. 

Bullpen (8): RHP Jhoan Duran, RHP Griffin Jax, RHP Cole Sands, LHP Kody Funderburk, RHP Jorge Alcala, RHP Justin Topa, RHP Michael Tonkin, RHP Eiberson Castellano (Rule 5), RHP Brock Stewart (IL)

Summary: Duran may have had a down season, but the potential remains for him to be dominant at the end of games. Remember, he began the season on the IL. Meanwhile, Jax became one of the best relief pitchers in all of baseball. Could he return to starting? Maybe. Cole Sands was the most improved Twins player in 2024. He turned question marks into exclamation points and looks to continue to gain confidence. Jorge Alcala had his option picked up and at times looked like a late-inning option. Justin Topa missed nearly the full 2024 season with a knee injury, but the Twins signed him, Tonkin and Stewart to provide some veteran bullpen options. With Caleb Thielbar signing in Chicago, Funderburk is one of just two lefty pitchers on the 40-man roster. I have Eiberson Castellano on the roster, working as a long reliever, since he was the team’s Rule 5 pick. He has to remain on the roster all season or offered back to his original team. 

Next In Line: RHP Louie Varland, RHP Ronny Henriquez, LHP Brent Headrick, RHP Scott Blewett. 

Louie Varland is a big leaguer. No question about that in my mind, and he could be dominant out of the bullpen. I think he should be on the Opening Day roster, but for now I have them keeping Tonkin and Castellano on the roster so as not to lose them. Henriquez showed at times last year that he can be a really good, multi-inning reliever in the big leagues. And, Headrick could start or relieve. He’s the other lefty on the 40-man roster. He missed most of the 2024 season with a forearm injury but returned late in the year. And, my advice would be not to give up on Matt Canterino. He has tremendous stuff and a great attitude, and what a story it will be when he gets an opportunity in the big leagues! 

Others on the 40-man roster: Matt Canterino .

Others in the Upper levels: RHP Daniel Duarte, RHP Darren McCaughan, LHP Jaylen Nowlin, RHP Kyle Bischoff, RHP Ryan Jensen, RHP John Stankiewicz, RHP Michael Martinez, LHP Aaron Rozek, RHP Cody Laweryson, 

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Catchers (2): Ryan Jeffers, Christian Vazquez

Summary: If I’m in charge, I would try hard to lock up Jeffers to a four-plus year contract extension. While he hasn’t always been consistent from month to month, he provides solid offense, include 20-homer power. The Twins have reportedly tried to trade Vazquez for awhile, but they won’t get anything in return without eating some of his contract, in which case, they might as well just keep him. That said Jair Camargo is ready to roll. 

Next in Line: Jair Camargo. 

Camargo has provided a powerful bat for the Saints the past two seasons, and he is a solid backstop with strong communication and leadership skills. He could handle the backup role. And, while he has been a catcher in the minor leagues, newly-acquired Mickey Gasper is really more of a DH/1B than a catcher. That said, if his bat is good, and he could play adequate first base or second base, he’s fine as the #3/emergency catcher. 

Others on 40-man roster: Mickey Gasper

Others in the Upper levels: Patrick Winkel, Ricardo Olivar, Noah Cardenas, Andrew Cossetti, Alex Isola, 

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Infielders (6): Jose Miranda, Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, Edouard Julien, Willi Castro

Summary: We know that Carlos Correa will be the team’s shortstop anytime he is healthy. We know that Royce Lewis will start at one of the infield positions, second base or third base, when he is healthy. For Lewis, I think it’s only fair to pick a position in spring training and go with it rather than have him bounce around. I believe that the Twins should look to lock up Brooks Lee long-term right now and hand him the position that Lewis doesn’t play. Willi Castro can play all three of those infield positions as well as at least two outfield spots. 

That leaves the big question mark at first base. With Carlos Santana going back to Cleveland and Alex Kirilloff retiring, who will play first base? For me, I would ask Justin Morneau to be at spring training nearly every day and work with Jose Miranda and Edouard Julien on first base defense every single day. Invite Mickey Gasper and Yunior Severino and Mike Ford. Aaron Sabato can be there, and so can Luke Keaschall. We have seen the kind of impact that Miranda and Julien can have on the offense when they are going well. 

Next in Line: Mickey Gasper, Michael Helman

If the Twins were to play Edouard Julien and Jose Miranda at first base and DH, then having Gasper on the roster as the #3 catcher and the backup first baseman can make some sense. Michael Helman has played a lot of minor league games at second base, third base, shortstop, and all three outfield positions. There is a ton of value in that, especially if Willi Castro remains an everyday player. 

Others on 40-man roster:  Mickey Gasper, Michael Helman 

Others in the upper levels: Mike Ford, Yunior Severino, Aaron Sabato, Ben Ross, Payton Eeles, Jorel Ortega, Jake Rucker, Tanner Schobel, Luke Keaschall, Anthony Prato, 

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Outfielders (5): Trevor Larnach, Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner, Austin Martin, DaShawn Keirsey

Summary: For nearly a decade, we have been able to play Max Kepler’s name in this group. His contract ran out and he recently signed with the Phillies. However, the Twins have some talented outfielders who, frankly, outperformed Kepler last year. It starts with Byron Buxton who returned to center field last year and surpassed 100 games played. Flanking Buxton will be a couple of lefty-hitting corner outfielders in Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner. Both have had success and did so in 2024. Both are ready to take another big step forward in 2025. All three are first-round picks. So was Austin Martin who debuted early in the 2024 season and showed his athleticism in the outfield and on the base paths. He could be a platoon option in left field. He’s got a good eye at the plate. And DaShawn Keirsey’s speed and defense alone should give him a chance. He can play all three outfield spots including a strong centerfield. And, his offensive numbers in 2024 show what kind of stat line filler he can be. 

Next in Line: Michael Helman, Emmanuel Rodriguez

As noted above, Helman’s utility make him a valuable player in the organization. Along with the ability to play six defensive positions pretty well, he has raked in St. Paul the last couple of seasons, and he can steal bases. Emmanuel Rodriguez is a Top 25 prospect in all of baseball, and he’s been putting up offensive numbers since his pro debut in 2021. He missed a lot of time last year with a hand/wrist injury but still put up numbers when he was on the field and ended his season in St. Paul. 

Others on the 40-man roster: Michael Helman, Emmanuel Rodriguez, 

Others in the Upper levels: Allan Cerda, Kala’i Rosario, Walker Jenkins, Anthony Prato, Carson McCusker, Will Holland, Jeferson Morales, Kyler Fedko. 

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Potential Lineup vs RHP: Brooks Lee 2B, Carlos Correa SS, Trevor Larnach LF, Royce Lewis 3B, Byron Buxton CF, Matt Wallner RF, Edouard Julien 1B, Ryan Jeffers C, Willi Castro DH. 

Potential Lineup vs LHP: Byron Buxton CF, Carlos Correa SS, Royce Lewis 3B, Ryan Jeffers C, Jose Miranda 1B, Brooks Lee 2B, Austin Martin LF, Matt Wallner/Trevor Larnach RF, Willi Castro DH. 

So what do you think? In my opinion, there remains an awful lot of talent on the roster. Players lost this offseason can be replaced by players with more upside. The top three starters are all very exciting, and there is some depth for starting pitchers with guys who have some big league innings under their belts now, or should be debuting in 2025. 

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[Blyleven2011]

I'm not concerned with starting  pitching unless there are injuries , bullpen the same , we will have depth but how good will the depth be  ???

If they don't make anymore moves I'm Allright with it because most of the best players are signed or out of our price range ...

I'm fine with the younger players given the opportunity to show if they can stick in the majors  , got to give the rookies more of a chance then they did last year ...

We've been used to it for years , Calvin years and pohlad years , we played from our development  , lately or since our new target field we've gone away from that so it seems ...

Build a core from within and bring back our identity  ...

[dberthia]

I'm expecting a dismal year. Trotting the same people out again, saying a prayer, and hoping for different results. And because of that, I won't be subscribing to any streaming package or be giving this organization a dime of my money. I'll still use other methods to watch the games, but I'll probably just have them on in the background while I'm doing something more enjoyable, like cleaning the bathroom. Of course, if new ownership comes in and wants to revive things, I may change my mind. Right now, not only has the organization done nothing to earn my business, but they're actively pushing me away.

[sweetmusicviola16]

A couple of deals that just happened. Royals resign Michael Lornzen for 7mil. That may explain a little of why Paddack hasn't been moved. When you can get Lorenzen for less money and give up nothing. I'd take Lornzen everyday of the week over fragile Paddack. 

Also, I sure would have liked to see Lux on this team over Julien. This team is what it is. What you see is probably pretty much what you'll see breaking camp. We'll have to hang out hopes on a bunch of hopefuls.

[roger]

Like this team, Seth.

[RpR]

"What if the Twins Don't Make Any More Offseason Moves?"

Nobody knows the trouble we'll see
Nobody will know our sorrow
Nobody knows the trouble we'll see
Glory, Hallelujah

[Jocko87]

[CRF]

I don't expect them to much, if anything, before next season. Oh sure, there probably will be a minor move or two, but there won't be anything big. Can they compete in the Central? I think they can, but it also wouldn't shock me if they didn't.  

[Doctor Gast]

Last year if we had done nothing we would have been a better team. This year if they don't trade Castro, Vazquez or any core player we'll be better than any outside move. 

Julien has to be sent down to AAA until he proves he can play 1B (he can't play 2B) & be able to hit to profile there which'll be a long time. Trade him.

Jeffers has been very consistent, he's very good at the backup catcher, beyond that the more he plays the worse he becomes. We can't afford the extension that he doesn't deserve. We desperately need a promising MLB-ready catcher, trade Jeffers.

 

[tony&rodney]

So far this offseason this has more or less been my thought - Falvey has the team he wants. Having said that, I will not be very surprised if a couple of deals are completed. I'm not as down on this collection as some but sure wish defense was a higher priority.

Perhaps a key will be whether the Twins give a legitimate look at some younger players. I don't know if someone is ready but a long look in Spring Training might be a ticket for a few guys: Payton Eeles, Luke Keaschall, and Emmanuel Rodriguez.

The pitching is always about health and depth. Paddack might be solid in the bullpen. I believe the Twins are better off with Festa as their #4 starting pitcher. Ronny Henriquez? Isn't he out of options? Still time for moves but the squad they have can play.

[T.O.]

"For Lewis, I think it’s only fair to pick a position in spring training and go with it rather than have him bounce around"

I agree. Unfortunately unless there is a manager change that becomes hard.

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Actually if EVERYONE stays healthy and EVERYONE plays at their best ALL year and a young pitcher like Festa can start going more than 5 innings and if the manager will let him instead of pulling him for the match up I think we can win this thing.

[chpettit19]

If they don't make anymore moves I'd expect them to be in the same general area I expected them to be in before last season, 82-86ish wins. The pitching should be quite good, but the defense will likely be shaky and the offense has a lot of question marks. 

The question I have is how open will the competition for roster spots be if more moves aren't made? They don't have their usual collection of 1 year vets right now. They have 8 lineup spots spoken for as far as I can tell (Correa, Buxton, Lewis, Wallner, Larnach, Castro, Miranda, the catchers) so how willing are they to open up that 9th spot? They can move guys around and put that 9th spot just about anywhere they want. Can Emma win an opening day role and improve the team defense with Larnach at DH? Can Eeles take a 40-man spot and win the opening day 2B job with Castro in left and Larnach at DH? Keaschall? How open is that spot without another move? 

Same with rotation spots. If Festa and SWR are looking like the best arms in camp can they push Paddack to the pen or are they fighting over 1 spot simply because of Paddack's age and contract? Are they willing to go best players available or is it going to be more about "the plan" like it seems to usually be? Without further moves will we see competition and performance rule the day instead of veteran status and pre-season expectations?

[Joe A. Preusser]

This is a good team.  I would prioritize the following moves in this order:

1) Replace Paddock with a mid-tier starter.  Perhaps the Japanese phenom (can't remember his name), perhaps a trade.  But that would mean our #5 is SWR and two great rookies next in line.  I would take that rotation 10 out of 10 years.

2) Keep Jax as a BP arm and add 1 good lefty specialist.  

3) Do whatever you need to trade Vasquez and all of his salary.  Bring in a league minimum, defense first backup or roll with Jair.  

4) Most of the offense is handled with in-house options.  I believe our returning players will mostly outpace last year's numbers with new hitting coaching.

 

This is a playoff team, led by its dominant pitching staff.

 

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Last year if we had done nothing we would have been a better team.

Wut.

A good argument could be made that they signed the team MVP for $5.5m.

[Danchat]

They're gonna need a massive boost in play from the young players if this team is going to make any kind of playoff push.

Also, it would be a crime against baseball to go into the season with a bullpen with no legitimate left handed relievers... again (once it became clear Thielbar was cooked). 

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, CRF said:

I don't expect them to much, if anything, before next season. Oh sure, there probably will be a minor move or two, but there won't be anything big. Can they compete in the Central? I think they can, but it also wouldn't shock me if they didn't.  

Can and will be very competitive.  People will be shocked.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

So far this offseason this has more or less been my thought - Falvey has the team he wants. Having said that, I will not be very surprised if a couple of deals are completed. I'm not as down on this collection as some but sure wish defense was a higher priority.

Perhaps a key will be whether the Twins give a legitimate look at some younger players. I don't know if someone is ready but a long look in Spring Training might be a ticket for a few guys: Payton Eeles, Luke Keaschall, and Emmanuel Rodriguez.

The pitching is always about health and depth. Paddack might be solid in the bullpen. I believe the Twins are better off with Festa as their #4 starting pitcher. Ronny Henriquez? Isn't he out of options? Still time for moves but the squad they have can play.

Definitely Paddack should be ticketed to the bullpen.

[stringer bell]

1 minute ago, Danchat said:

They're gonna need a massive boost in play from the young players if this team is going to make any kind of playoff push.

Also, it would be a crime against baseball to go into the season with a bullpen with no legitimate left handed relievers... again (once it became clear Thielbar was cooked). 

I think the key is health, most specifically the health of Correa, Buxton, Lewis and the top pitchers. The Twins played their best when all but Lewis were healthy from late April to sometime in June.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I appreciate (and mostly agree with) your optimism Seth.  The rotation and bullpen will be fine without any more moves.  The lineup is a question mark, but not without potential.  Much is being made about how much we have to improve our offense to compete.  OK.  Let’s roll with that.  I think it is very likely that our overall numbers at every outfield position improve offensively — Wallner will be much better than Kepler, Buxton is as healthy as he is going to get, and Larnach or a committee should match last year’s production in Left.  The catching tandem will likely be similar with Jeffers leading the way, but I would take the over on Vasquez offense, meaning there is improvement there.  In the infield, keeping Correa healthy will be key.  If he’s healthy he will put up the numbers.  SOMEONE will step up at second base - maybe Castro, Lee, Julien, or Keashall.  The first base/third base combination of Lewis and Miranda should do fine as well.  Defensively, we will miss Santana severely, but I think a healthy Miranda (and maybe a little Julien) will replace his offensive contribution.  There.   I said it.  I think that this year’s team with last year’s players can put up better numbers than last year’s did — at very least they could be a little more consistent.  

[Vanimal46]

If no additional moves are made I’ll grade this offseason as a failure. This roster is not good enough to be anything more than fighting for the last wild card spot. I want them to pick a direction because being stuck in mediocrity doesn’t do much for me. I would accept a step back in 2025 if that means building for something better than 85 wins. They didn’t have the bats last year, or 2023, or 2022, or 2021 to truly compete. 

[bean5302]

If lots of things go right, sure. The Twins could win 90 games next year if, if, if. I think they're about an 84-85 win team right now. Question marks are Jose Miranda, Edouard Julien, Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, Simeon Woods Richardson, and David Festa. Unexpected injuries or guys who don't play up to expectations could swing the Twins to below .500 just as easy.

[Hubie29]

2 hours ago, dberthia said:

I'm expecting a dismal year. Trotting the same people out again, saying a prayer, and hoping for different results. And because of that, I won't be subscribing to any streaming package or be giving this organization a dime of my money. I'll still use other methods to watch the games, but I'll probably just have them on in the background while I'm doing something more enjoyable, like cleaning the bathroom. Of course, if new ownership comes in and wants to revive things, I may change my mind. Right now, not only is the organization done nothing to earn my business, but they're actively pushing me away.

Couldn't agree with you more. The Twins are ruining my love for MLB. I find high school baseball more enjoyable now. 

[Hubie29]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Falvey has the team he wants. 

Because he thinks it is just that good? Or because he knows he can't spend any money? Two very different reasons that will result in two very different outcomes. If it's the first reason, he better find another profession. 

[Vanimal46]

1 minute ago, Hubie29 said:

Because he thinks it is just that good? Or because he knows he can't spend any money? Two very different reasons that will result in two very different outcomes. If it's the first reason, he better find another profession. 

We all know it’s the latter. Someone like Pete Alonso would be a great fit here on a short term deal but the budget is maxed out with the Pohlads. 

[tony&rodney]

1 minute ago, Vanimal46 said:

We all know it’s the latter. Someone like Pete Alonso would be a great fit here on a short term deal but the budget is maxed out with the Pohlads. 

I would have preferred Juan Soto to Pete Alonso but to each their own wish.

[Hubie29]

2 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

We all know it’s the latter. Someone like Pete Alonso would be a great fit here on a short term deal but the budget is maxed out with the Pohlads. 

I agree with you. Then you can't say he has the team he wants. He can't have it both ways. 

[Hubie29]

1 minute ago, tony&rodney said:

I would have preferred Juan Soto to Pete Alonso but to each their own wish.

Go big or go home

[Vanimal46]

2 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I would have preferred Juan Soto to Pete Alonso but to each their own wish.

Me too. Just mentioned a current free agent that fills a clear need for the Twins. But they won’t do it. I have no idea why a team like Seattle that desperately needs offense hasn’t offered him a contract. 

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Me too. Just mentioned a current free agent that fills a clear need for the Twins. But they won’t do it. I have no idea why a team like Seattle that desperately needs offense hasn’t offered him a contract. 

Same reason. 

One can buy a case of Johnny Walker Blue Label or not for pretty much the same reason.

[Vanimal46]

7 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Same reason. 

One can buy a case of Johnny Walker Blue Label or not for pretty much the same reason.

This offseason has really highlighted how unhealthy this professional sport is right now. The Twins and Mariners are 2 out of about 10 teams that could contend with another investment or 2 but they’re all stuck in place afraid to spend a single dollar.