What if the Twins Don't Make Any More Offseason Moves?

[tony&rodney]

The focus of the article was toward a team complete as of early January. It is a competitive team.

There are still opportunities for change. One can throw out all sorts of semi-reasonable deals that might benefit both teams, but the Twins front office has to make a decision what is best for their upcoming season.

Big questions (unanswerable) complicate any trade possibilities. I really like Matt Wallner but Pittsburgh is desperate for a right fielder. Would a Wallner, Paddack, and Miranda for Jared Jones or Bubba Chandler plus Endy Rodriguez deal help or hurt the Twins? Depends on how the Twins feel about Emmanuel Rodriguez. Baltimore (one or two of Mayo, Basallo, Mountcastle) and San Diego (Cease, Hoeing) remain potential trading partners as well. The maneuvering is tight.

For now, the Twins may feel their team is looking good. I'm not sure there would be much interest in a Bregman, Alonso, Santander, or Flaherty even if the Twins could carry a $150-150M payroll. Fit is tricky. If the team isn't set, there are still deals out there.

[bean5302]

So what if the Twins don't make any more moves? With the current roster, the team constructed as-is looks about like this in my opinion. If the Twins finish 4th in the AL Central at 84 wins, it was a heck of a division, which might wind up being the case. Obviously, opinions can vary, but ask yourself whether or not you'd bet money on being off my more than +/- 0.5 WAR on these estimates for likely (mid-range) WAR at the end of the season, and whether or not your differing expectations offset each other.

First	Last	Mid WAR
Ryan	Jeffers	1.8
Jose	Miranda	1.8
Royce	Lewis	3.0
Carlos	Correa	4.0
Willi	Castro	2.5
Trevor	Larnach	1.5
Byron	Buxton	3.0
Matt	Wallner	2.5
Edouard	Julien	1.0
Christian	Vazquez	0.5
DaShawn	Keirsey	0.0
Austin	Martin	0.0
Brooks	Lee	1.0
Pablo	Lopez	3.2
Joe	Ryan	2.3
Bailey	Ober	2.3
David	Festa	1.8
Simeon	WR	1.0
Jhoan	Duran	1.5
Griffin	Jax	1.5
Jorge	Alcala	0.8
Cole	Sands	0.8
Brock	Stewart	0.8
Kody	Funderburk	0.0
Louie	Varland	0.5
Ronny	Henriquez	0.0
Replacement	45	39.1
		84

84 wins is the expected total. The team is "probably" an over .500 ballclub.

Spotrac projects $138.6MM for the Twins' payroll at the moment which is good for 17th in MLB, just behind Baltimore and Seattle, and a tick above St. Louis. Twins fan attendance was 23rd in MLB last year.

 

[lake_guy]

36 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Alonso is still waiting for a deal and likely not to receive the $150 million he was previously offered. Baseball is a business and business is not good for about 20 of the 30 teams. 

It’s January and the Twins are 1 of 6 teams who haven’t spent a single dollar on an MLB contract. 12 out of 30 teams have spent less than $10 million. MLB is an unhealthy organization right now. 

wow, Alonso is gonna regret that decision.  mind boggling how any of he free agents isn't considering the new reality.

[DocBauer]

Am I content? No way. I wanted to be the team to sign Goldschmidt for 1yr and $13-14M hoping for that one more good year in the sun. Another $8-9M ish on a proven LHRP and RHOF with good career splits. (No more platoon specialists). The $ wouldn't have been outlandish. And it sure would be nice for the outgoing ownership to spend a little as a "going away present" when they are poised for a $1.5B + payday in the future. 

But am I desperate or despondent? No. The collapse late last season, IMO, often clouds an honest view of the team as currently constructed. Yes, health is an issue. This is a different team with Lewis and Correa healthy for the season. Could throw Miranda in there as well considering how good he's looked when healthy. Buxton? You take what you can get, which is hopefully 100 plus games. 

There are questions. There's also talent, and more talent on the way. 

I like the rotation, I'm encouraged by the depth, and I feel the same about the pen. Better health...and they're due...and just more overall consistency from the bats can make this offense pretty darn good. 

Do they win 82 or 92? I don't know. But there's real talent on this club. How healthy that talent is over a full season and how well the younger guys step up will make the difference.

[dberthia]

There's a lot of talk here about how much better we'll be with Lewis healthy, but didn't anybody see how hopeless he was in the second half when we were told he was healthy? If that's the new normal for a healthy Lewis, he has bust potential. Hopefully he's getting things figured out and comes in with a new approach this year. The league has him figured out, and it's up to him to respond.

[chpettit19]

46 minutes ago, dberthia said:

There's a lot of talk here about how much better we'll be with Lewis healthy, but didn't anybody see how hopeless he was in the second half when we were told he was healthy? If that's the new normal for a healthy Lewis, he has bust potential. Hopefully he's getting things figured out and comes in with a new approach this year. The league has him figured out, and it's up to him to respond.

He ran out of gas at the end. His bat speed went down by 1.7 MPH. That wasn't a healthy Lewis. Now if he can't maintain his bat speed for an entire season that's going to be a problem. But that wasn't the league figuring him out, that was him running out of gas.

[ashbury]

17 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

He ran out of gas at the end. His bat speed went down by 1.7 MPH. That wasn't a healthy Lewis. Now if he can't maintain his bat speed for an entire season that's going to be a problem. But that wasn't the league figuring him out, that was him running out of gas.

Split the difference - they figured out what to do with a guy who had run out of gas.  😀

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, ashbury said:

Split the difference - they figured out what to do with a guy who ran out of gas.  😀

They are a smart bunch. Let's hope he comes into the year with some gas in the tank at least.

[Linehan]

With that pitching staff, they don’t suck.

[tony&rodney]

19 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

They are a smart bunch. Let's hope he comes into the year with some gas in the tank at least.

Price of gas is down from August and September too.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Price of gas is down from August and September too.

And I think some of us would be willing to chip in on some extra gas for the young man if needed.

[jmlease1]

50 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

He ran out of gas at the end. His bat speed went down by 1.7 MPH. That wasn't a healthy Lewis. Now if he can't maintain his bat speed for an entire season that's going to be a problem. But that wasn't the league figuring him out, that was him running out of gas.

Hopefully. coming into a season without having any off-season surgeries and having a normal prep to a season will help position him to do better and stay stronger throughout the season. I expect the twins would have given him some breaks in August/September last season, but they were short on options with Miranda and Lee both fighting injuries, Castro being needed elsewhere (and being overused as well), etc. he might just need to get used to the grind.

[NYCTK]

3 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

MLB is an unhealthy organization right now. 

$11+ Billion revenue and growing is hardly unhealthy. And the Twins, a supposedly poor franchise, are going to sell for something in the neighborhood of $1.5 Billion.

Changes are coming in distribution, but the business is fine. Teams unwilling to spend to win are undergoing some adjustments but the league is healthy overall. 

[Linus]

1 hour ago, Linehan said:

With that pitching staff, they don’t suck.

I think this is a very important point that isn’t getting discussed enough.  Winning baseball starts with starting pitching and the Twins are in pretty good shape there.

[NYCTK]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Twins fan attendance was 23rd in MLB last year.

 

And Twins big wigs should fully expect it to drop further. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

9 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

$11+ Billion revenue and growing is hardly unhealthy. And the Twins, a supposedly poor franchise, are going to sell for something in the neighborhood of $1.5 Billion.

Changes are coming in distribution, but the business is fine. Teams unwilling to spend to win are undergoing some adjustments but the league is healthy overall. 

Mostly agree but I think other factors like down town real estate really complicate this

[Elliot]

If they decide to spend anything, I believe their biggest need is someone who can fill in at shortstop if Correa is out for any length of time. I like Kim from SD, but probably too spendy. As of now they have no one on the 40 man or close to it who has any business being at MLB SS for any extended period if Correa goes down. 
If they keep Kersey they have someone to play CF if Buxton sits. Choosing a spot, either 3rd or 2nd for Lewis and giving him an offseason and ST there should help. Same for Lee at the one Lewis isn’t at.  Both are young enough, and good enough infielders that they should be at least average, hopefully somewhat above, if given the routine and repetitions. 
I think the biggest problem last year was lack of consistent, dependable defensive play. Not so much poor defenders, but everyone playing out of position. 

Utility players like Castro and Martin have value in their ability to fill in at a lot of spots. Unfortunately they tend to lose value when slotted into one spot for a long stretch. 

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Alonso is still waiting for a deal and likely not to receive the $150 million he was previously offered. Baseball is a business and business is not good for about 20 of the 30 teams. 

It’s January and the Twins are 1 of 6 teams who haven’t spent a single dollar on an MLB contract. 12 out of 30 teams have spent less than $10 million. MLB is an unhealthy organization right now. 

No doubt some teams will have reduced revenue and you definitely have a point that this will create some opportunities.   This is a good year to have payroll capacity like Detroit for example.  Unfortunately, even if Alonso doesn't get what he is expecting, his contract would still mean a record payroll for the Twins and the only way that is even a remote possibility is if the sale is completed in the next few weeks and that's highly unlikely.

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

$11+ Billion revenue and growing is hardly unhealthy. And the Twins, a supposedly poor franchise, are going to sell for something in the neighborhood of $1.5 Billion.

Changes are coming in distribution, but the business is fine. Teams unwilling to spend to win are undergoing some adjustments but the league is healthy overall. 

The total revenue number doesn’t mean much when it’s not distributed evenly. And that’s the unhealthy part of MLB as a whole. The Dodgers, Yankees, and Mets can spend as much as they want and 20 other teams are left trying to figure out how to make it work with their limited revenue. 

[nicksaviking]

6 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

The total revenue number doesn’t mean much when it’s not distributed evenly. And that’s the unhealthy part of MLB as a whole. The Dodgers, Yankees, and Mets can spend as much as they want and 20 other teams are left trying to figure out how to make it work with their limited revenue. 

Right, combined Bezos and I are making 500B in revenue too. Things are looking pretty good....for one of us.

[bean5302]

MLB is definitely unhealthy. The RSN death has completely turned the league upside down. Similar to how everything imploded in the early 90s setting off a total revolution in baseball.

That said, 23 of 30 teams have made the playoffs in 2021-2024. No team has been to a league championship series or world series more than 2x in that span, and only 3 teams haven't missed the playoffs (Dodgers, Astros, Braves) in that span.

Chance of making playoffs? 77% vs. 100% in a perfect world
Chance of making a league championship? 33% vs. 53% in a perfect world
Chance of making a World Series? 23% vs. 27% in a perfect world.

There is a ton of competition in MLB. The Dodgers are really stirring things up, and I do believe they've gotten to the point rules about deferrals need to be put into place to protect the future of the game.

[NYCTK]

25 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

The total revenue number doesn’t mean much when it’s not distributed evenly. And that’s the unhealthy part of MLB as a whole. The Dodgers, Yankees, and Mets can spend as much as they want and 20 other teams are left trying to figure out how to make it work with their limited revenue. 

The Twins are valued at about $1.5 Billion and owned by a family worth about $5 Billion. 

Spare me. 

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

The Twins are valued at about $1.5 Billion and owned by a family worth about $5 Billion. 

Spare me. 

Those are separate from the revenue individual teams bring in every year. 

[NYCTK]

48 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Those are separate from the revenue individual teams bring in every year. 

Twins leadership can influence revenue you know, and their refusal to try to contend last year had fans tuning out. They cost themselves at least 20 million of revenue with their terrible decisions. Not to mention the carryover now that attendance will almost certainly crater further. 

Many people here, myself included, refuse to spend another dollar on the terrible product they're trying to sell, holding out until a new owner comes in. 

This false idea the pohlads have sold that the twin cities are a small market is ridiculous. And sad that many have bought into it. The Guardians would love to play in the twin cities market. 

[D.C Twins]

You don't keep Tonkin on the roster because you are afraid of 'losing him.'

Varland should begin in the MLB bullpen and no one should ever utter the words 'afraid of losing Tonkin' again. 

[D.C Twins]

On 1/6/2025 at 7:30 PM, roger said:

Like this team, Seth.

     Live look at Pohlad's response to this sentiment 

[dxpavelka]

14 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Alonso turned down $150M from the Mets and he is not signing a short-term deal as you suggested earlier.  To frame this as "afraid to spend a single dollar" is fanatical.  While I understand that those of us interested enough to follow the off-season and come here to discuss it are all at least a little fanatical.  However, if we remain rational it's not at all hard to understand why Seattle and Minnesota have not signed Alonso.  Refusing to accept the reality that baseball is a business will result in perennial disappointment.    

As long as Alonzo remains represented by Boras don't rule anything out.

 

[UK Twin]

As disappointing as this offseason has been, the news about the sale of the Twins progressing is very good news indeed. If, as has been reported, a sale is completed by opening day there is absolutely no way the Twins should consider trading Correa or Lopez or any other key name. And the longer Alonso goes without signing.....

[Lasorda_This_Out]

At this point...I'm OK with a complete teardown?

Start fresh in 2026 2027 2028?

It will be more fun than any fired Falvey/Baldelli team Roster after new Ownership takes charge?

 

[NYCTK]

9 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

You don't keep Tonkin on the roster because you are afraid of 'losing him.'

Varland should begin in the MLB bullpen and no one should ever utter the words 'afraid of losing Tonkin' again. 

How could they ever replace the guy that was DFAd 3 times last year alone?