How the Tarik Skubal Trade Impacts Joe Ryan’s Potential Market This Winter

The Detroit Tigers may have helped shape the Minnesota Twins' offseason plans without even picking up the phone. Last Saturday night's blockbuster sent Tarik Skubal to the Los Angeles Dodgers, ending one of the biggest trade sagas of the summer. While the Twins were never expected to be involved, the deal established an important benchmark for another American League ace: Joe Ryan.

Minnesota wasn't expected to move Ryan before Monday's trade deadline, nor should they have. The Twins spent the deadline reinforcing their roster by adding three relievers (Jeff Hoffman , Tommy Nance, A.J. Minter) and a back-end starter (Dean Kremer). Those moves signal a front office focused on making the postseason, not taking a step backward. Trading a two-time All-Star who anchored the rotation would undermine everything they have done to improve the club.

Unfortunately, Ryan's recent performance only strengthened the argument for waiting. After another outstanding first half, Ryan struggled in his first three starts after the All-Star break and then was put on the IL with a mild glute strain. 

He also has a well-documented history of posting weaker numbers after the break. In the first half, Ryan has pitched like one of baseball's elite starters, posting a 3.17 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and allowing opponents just a .632 OPS. After the All-Star break, those numbers have slipped considerably, with a 5.00 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and a .779 OPS allowed. It's easy to understand why rival clubs would try to discount his value if he were made available today.

That doesn't mean his long-term value has disappeared. If anything, the Skubal trade offers a glimpse into what the Twins could reasonably expect this winter, if Ryan finishes the season healthy, resets over the offseason, and allows interested clubs to evaluate his complete body of work instead of a stretch of second-half struggles.

The Dodgers sent Detroit outfielder Zyhir Hope (MLB Pipeline's No. 25 prospect), right-hander River Ryan (No. 68), and right-hander Brady Smith, the organization's No. 17 prospect before the trade. While that package may have felt lighter than expected for one of baseball's best pitchers, it also reflected today's market for frontline starters on expiring contracts.

Teams have become increasingly hesitant to surrender overwhelming prospect hauls, even for elite talent. But Skubal's return still featured multiple premium prospects, and it provides a useful starting point for evaluating pitchers with similar value.

Ryan's value could still change significantly over the final two months of the season. He'll likely need to show that his recent struggles are merely a temporary setback rather than a larger concern. Unlike Skubal, who will make only a handful of starts for the Dodgers before reaching free agency, Ryan could enter the offseason with his value trending back toward its peak. 

Minnesota could also follow the blueprint that clubs like the Brewers have used in recent years by dealing a frontline starter during the winter, when more teams have the financial flexibility and prospect capital to engage. One potential complication is the looming threat of a player lockout, which could freeze transactions and create a shortened offseason, leaving less time for a blockbuster deal to develop.

Minnesota has consistently viewed Ryan as a foundational piece of its rotation, and nothing about the organization's recent actions suggests that opinion has changed. A healthy Ryan gives the Twins a far better chance to contend. This winter, however, the conversation could look very different.

With a full offseason for clubs to assess their rotations, greater financial flexibility across the league, and a healthier version of Ryan entering another year of control, the Twins would be negotiating from a position of strength rather than urgency. The Skubal trade may ultimately serve less as a missed opportunity and more as an early indicator of the type of return Minnesota could pursue if it ever decides the timing is right.

For now, the Twins' priority is chasing a playoff berth, hopefully with a recovered Ryan leading their rotation in September and October. If trade discussions ever become serious, this offseason appears to be when his market will reach its peak.

Did the Skubal trade establish a realistic benchmark for Ryan, or would Minnesota need an even bigger return to justify dealing a two-time All-Star?