Are the Twins Getting Ready to Trade Pitching for Hitting?

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins have a lopsided balance of arms and bats on their roster. One way or another, it's going to need to work itself out.

Image courtesy of Matt Krohn and Jeffrey Becker–Imagn Images

At the start of the offseason, the Minnesota Twins lost six players to free agency. Four were position players, all of whom played relatively large roles in 2024: Max Kepler, Carlos Santana, Manuel Margot, Kyle Farmer. The two pitchers were Caleb Thielbar, an aging lefty reliever who threw 47 innings, and Anthony DeSclafani, who never threw a pitch.

Since then, essentially every additive move the Twins have made has been pitching-focused. The team surprisingly tendered contracts to both Michael Tonkin and Justin Topa, more or less assuring them spots in the Opening Day bullpen if healthy. Then they added right-handers Marco Raya and Travis Adams to the 40-man roster ahead of the Rule 5 eligibility deadline. 

Most recently, in the aforementioned Rule 5 draft, the Twins selected Eiberson Castellano from the Phillies, their first time taking a player in seven years. Castellano is an intriguing right-handed pitcher on the verge of MLB readiness, and Minnesota is hoping it stumbled upon a steal. Of course, the stipulation is that in order to keep Castellano, he needs to remain on the active roster for the Twins all year.

There's no guarantee Castellano will make the team, but the Twins wouldn't have drafted him if they didn't see it as reasonably likely. So if you pencil him into an eight-man bullpen alongside Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Cole Sands, Brock Stewart, Jorge Alcala, Topa and Tonkin, you've got a unit that is already full-up. 

Minnesota's 40-man roster currently features 22 pitchers and only 16 hitters. Without making any additions, they can already boast a contending rotation and relief corps deep enough that guys like David Festa, Louie Varland and Zebby Matthews are currently on the outside looking in. I will note that all 13 presently projected members of the 2025 staff are right-handed.

Meanwhile, you've got an offensive unit that is full of blatant holes. Coming off a second half where their lineup completely bottomed out, the Twins lost one of their most promising hitters (Alex Kirilloff), one of their most dependable hitters (Santana) and one of their most tenured hitters (Kepler). They currently have major questions to address all over the field, if not in the starting roles then certainly with the positional depth. 

The front office, as we know, has negative money to address these question marks. They're clearly trying to shop Christian Vazquez to free up his $10 million salary, but that would only exacerbate their position-player shortage. How are they going to find ways to replace their losses, much less bring in any kind of help?

Trading out of their quality pitching depth to acquire impact bats seems like the clear path forward. And I'm talking about something more significant than moving Chris Paddack, who is not likely to bring back a substantial return and also wouldn't clear enough room for much in the way of additions. The Twins might need to get even bolder. Would they consider something like, say, trading Joe Ryan or Bailey Ober for a quality young hitter, then transitioning Jax to a starting role? Or trying to maximize Duran's value three years away from free agency?

I'm just spitballing here. But I'd have to figure these kinds of concepts are very much on the table, if not being actively pursued. It's a scary thought but also a somewhat exciting one. Good pitching is always in demand, and that's one of the few things the Twins have in their favor with their positioning this offseason.

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[Doctor Wu]

Interesting article, and I appreciate the "spitballing" idea, but I just can't see how trading Ryan or Ober would make us a better team this coming season, even if we received something akin to an "impact" bat in return. If the Twins truly are thinking about competing this coming season we need to keep each one of those three top starters. But on the other hand, if the current ownership is somehow intent on cutting payroll and going into a rebuilding mode, then we might at well try and trade all three of those guys. It's either one or the other. 

[William K Johnson]

Why not, since we have this great surplus of pitching.

[CRF]

Sure, why not? We've got such a stand out team...that just needs ONE more piece to put us over the top and send us to the WS. 

[tony&rodney]

The return will determine whether a trade should be completed. If Jarren Duran is available (I highly doubt this) for a starter or Jordan Lawler is available (also extremely unlikely) for a closer then a move is possible. sure hope the bar is equal in any exchange because the Twins don't need any more extra players. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

This makes sense depending on the return

[old nurse]

It is kind of gross that the same spitball gets blown out be different people 

[arby58]

The pitching pipeline last year provided more arms because it was a necessity. The same thing could happen with position players. MLB says the Twins top three prospects (Jenkins, Rodriguez, Keaschall) are all position players. Keaschall looks ready, and the other two aren't that far behind. I might trade Duran but wouldn't give up any of their top three starters.

[miracleb]

Not going to happen.  Also, the guys mentioned are "cheap."  That isn't what this front office is going to get rid of.....in fact.....they are LOOKING for it!   :-)

[gmwannabe]

I believe that Boston would trade Duran for Lopez if they miss out on Burnes because they could move Abreu to center and slot Roman Anthony in left. 5 years of Duran in center, moving Buxton to left and Larnach to DH vs. 3 years of Lopez while saving 17 million while painful, is adding a very good right handed bat and extending Buxton's ability to stay on the field.

[NYCTK]

48 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

If the Twins truly are thinking about competing this coming season

When have the Twins ever thought about truly competing? 

[Eris]

I disagree with premise of the article regarding having blatant holes in their lineup. A team can never have too much pitching. The Twins have plenty of young talent in their system (ERod, Jenkins, Keaschall). Let them play if need a bat. Of the position players mentioned as having left, only Santana and Kepler were contributors. Wallner will take over in RF.  Julien is somewhat of an uncertainty because great one year very poor the next. 
 

The Twins do have an injury/reliability issue with Buxton, Lewis, Lee, Correa and Miranda missing significant playing time. This issue will not be solved by trading away pitching. 

[Otaknam]

Trading solid starting pitchers like Ryan, Ober, or Lopez makes no sense and weakens the team that another hitter doesn’t address. They need Correa, Buxton, and Lewis to be healthy. The rest of the lineup will be filled by younger players and a cheap free agent or two. And they could resign Santana to fill in first, but even he is probably too expensive for this penurious ownership. 

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

Looking at another way to balance some of the overabundance of pitching without dealing from its top end, while accomplishing another one of the Twins' goals:
Is there a pitcher outside of the centerpieces of the rotation and bullpen (López, Ober, Ryan, Jax, Durán) who could be paired with Vázquez or Paddack to get another team to bite at a (more favorable) trade?

Does including Pitcher X in a trade get a team to take Vázquez' full salary in a trade? Or does adding a reliever to Paddack get player(s) in return who are more interesting or closer to the majors?

If that framework is possible, who would player X have to be? I think any of the current MLB or MLB-ready starters are too much, plus it depletes the depth too much to attach another starter to Paddack. Henríquez or Varland are still more potential than track record, but maybe some team loves the potential. Does a team take the volatility of Stewart's health to get the upside of his performance?

Maybe this doesn't work—maybe all their second-tier arms are either too valuable for this kind of trade or not valuable enough—but if the FO needs "to get creative" this winter, this seems like an intriguing way to do it.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

When have the Twins ever thought about truly competing? 

IMO they think about it, but have no idea how to do it. & are more concerned about playing their guys, do what's easiest & pushing their philosophy than winning.

[DJL44]

I think they could do well trading relief pitching for hitting. Trading starting pitching for hitting would just be trading one hole for another.

[arby58]

6 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

IMO they think about it, but have no idea how to do it. & are more concerned about playing their guys, do what's easiest & pushing their philosophy than winning.

The Twins are one year removed from winning a play-off series and being competitive with the team that made it to the World Series. While I'm not optimistic about next year, the suggestion that they're never competitive is myopic.

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

It is kind of gross that the same spitball gets blown out be different people 

If I correctly decypher this poorly written sentence, I wholeheartedly agree.  This is the same content I've read nearly daily since the World Series ended.  By the way, who won?

[Jocko87]

I hope not, the is no such thing as a pitching surplus. I don't see an imbalance at all.

Also, the impact bats are already on the roster.  They just need to be impactful.

[Cap'n Piranha]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

When have the Twins ever thought about truly competing? 

In 2019, when they signed Nelson Cruz, and won 103 games.

In 2020, when they traded for Kenta Maeda, and signed Josh Donaldson.

In 2021, when they traded multiple high-level prospects for Mahle and Jorge Lopez.

In 2022, when they signed Carlos Correa, and traded a recent first round pick for Sonny Gray

In 2023, when they signed Correa again, and traded for Pablo Lopez, then extended him.

[Cap'n Piranha]

20 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

If I correctly decypher this poorly written sentence, I wholeheartedly agree.  This is the same content I've read nearly daily since the World Series ended.  By the way, who won?

The team whose payroll the Twins can never ever ever match, no matter who owns the team, beat the team whose payroll the Twins can never ever match, no matter who owns the team.

[Craig Arko]

21 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

By the way, who won?

Rich people. 

[Vanimal46]

I got downvoted for this and probably will again. Keep close tabs on Baltimore. When they miss out on Burnes and Santander because their GM is trying to be the smartest person in every room, they’ll get pretty desperate. 

[Jeff K]

1 hour ago, Eris said:

I disagree with premise of the article regarding having blatant holes in their lineup. A team can never have too much pitching. The Twins have plenty of young talent in their system (ERod, Jenkins, Keaschall). Let them play if need a bat. Of the position players mentioned as having left, only Santana and Kepler were contributors. Wallner will take over in RF.  Julien is somewhat of an uncertainty because great one year very poor the next. 
 

The Twins do have an injury/reliability issue with Buxton, Lewis, Lee, Correa and Miranda missing significant playing time. This issue will not be solved by trading away pitching. 

I don't see many teams with too much pitching and the Twins are in the majority.  Our top 3 starters should be pretty darned close to untouchable.  You build around them; not the other way around.

[Linus]

I get the concept - starting pitching is the most valuable currency in baseball. However I disagree with the notion that the Twins have a surplus of pitching. Maybe next year at this time but not now. I would trade EmEod for a right handed version of himself. Said player can’t have wacky platoon splits and must be able to catch the ball. 

[PatPfund]

I get the need to add position players, but the Twins' so-called pitching depth is a myth when it comes to the rotation. Right now they'd start with Lopez, Ober, Ryan, SWR, and Paddack. Of those last three Ryan is likely on an IP restriction even if fully recovered (something that also likely depresses his trade value), SWR had a truly breakout season but tailed off badly, and Paddack hasn't had a good and healthy season in 5 years. Right now, only David Festa looks MLB-ready as a sixth starter. Varland is a reliever until he gets another good pitch, Zebby might get there but was not ready last year (his call-up was a product of desperation), and the others haven't sniffed MLB yet. Starting thin failed last year, and likely will again this year. (Plus it is SO MUCH CHEAPER to add position players in-season than starting pitching.)

So trade from our depth for a solid arm. And give our in-house hitters (many of whom are already better than 2024's Kepler/Farmer/Margot) a chance to shine, making (cheaper) additions there as needed once the year begins. And buy Larnach a 1B glove; he can be the LH half of a duo with Miranda if Julien can't rediscover his stroke, and E-Rod presses for a space on the big club.

[Doctor Gast]

We had a very competitive core that was very successful in '23. In '24 we were creative & tinkered with the core, traded needed players to afford players we didn't need. Where did that get us? Now they want to be more creative & disrupt more the core & bring in more outside players to fill positions that our own in-house players can do. We need a strong rotation, keep the core. Why do we want to weaken it? We need to be strong up the middle: Buxton & Keirsey at CF. Correa at SS, Lewis at 2B & Vazquez & Jeffers at catcher. We have been very fortunate at catcher that both Vazquez & Jeffers remain healthy because we have nobody who can cover them. If we eliminate Julien at 2B we'll become much better defensively. The right corners we have become more offensive. We have very good support group & people off the bench with Emma & Keaschall ready to be called up sometime during the season.

IMO we need to stop being creative & make minor trades to fill our holes to supplement our core. Trade away our fat to make budget.

[arby58]

22 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

The team whose payroll the Twins can never ever ever match, no matter who owns the team, beat the team whose payroll the Twins can never ever match, no matter who owns the team.

It's becoming clear that baseball needs to do something ala the NBA, where there isn't a salary cap, but there are limitations on teams (and not just a luxury tax) that go over certain player salary thresholds.

[arby58]

5 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

We had a very competitive core that was very successful in '23. In '24 we were creative & tinkered with the core, traded needed players to afford players we didn't need.

From the end of the 2023 season through the start of 2024, the Twins traded Jorge Polanco, Noah Miller, Nick Gordon, Niko Goodrum and Matt Bowman. Which of these was 'needed players?'

[1985Fan]

The “impact” bats haven’t been impactful. The roster is built around Buxton, Correa, and Lewis. All three weren’t on the field enough to carry the team to the playoffs and I have serious questions whether Lewis is a legitimate impact bat after watching the last two months of last season. His defense is not good either, so it’s not clear where his future position is going to be. Could be DH if he can hit. 
I have hope that Buxton has actually turned a corner and will play more games than last season. I don’t think the outlook is as bright for Correa. Is there really a cure for plantar fasciitis? I’ve heard it takes time, more than an offseason. For an athlete, PF could be recurring problem. If so, that is a roster problem the Twins may not recover from. He may have to sit out a season or more to get off his feet to fully heal. The injury problems with their core players and Lewis’s ability to hit is their real problem. They may be headed for a total rebuild if these three don’t turn a corner this season and carry the team.