Two Trade Scenarios for the Twins to Acquire Miami’s Jesús Luzardo

[Cody Christie]

The Twins and Marlins have matched up on a significant trade, fairly recently. Could another starting pitcher be on Minnesota’s offseason radar?

Image courtesy of © David Frerker-USA TODAY Sports

The Minnesota Twins find themselves in a familiar position this offseason, looking to solidify their starting rotation. After missing the playoffs in 2024, bolstering the rotation with a high-upside left-hander like Miami’s Jesús Luzardo could be a game-changer. The Twins and Marlins have successfully pulled off major trades in the past—most notably the Luis Arráez-for-Pablo López deal, which provided benefits for both clubs. Could these teams connect again for Luzardo?

Injuries limited Luzardo to 12 starts during the 2024 campaign; that could make him a buy-low candidate. He is under team control through 2026 and is projected to earn $6 million in arbitration. When healthy, the 27-year-old lefty has shown the ability to be a top-of-the-rotation arm. He posted a 3.58 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP across 178 2/3 innings in 2023. From 2022-23, he maintained a strikeout rate just under 29%, with a 129 ERA+ and a 3.40 FIP. Minnesota has a lot of young pitching options, but depth is essential to this front office. Adding Luzardo would likely be one piece in an offseason that includes multiple trades. 

Here are two potential trade scenarios to bring Luzardo to Target Field:

Trade 1: Established Talent for Immediate Impact 
Twins Receive: LHP Jesús Luzardo, C Joe Mack, INF Gage Miller
Marlins Receive: INF Royce Lewis
Lewis represents the perfect blend of offensive production and defensive versatility for Miami. Injuries have limited Lewis to 152 games in his first three big-league seasons, but his upside is substantial if he can stay healthy. Lewis ended the year on a sour note with a second-half offensive slump (.620 OPS in 58 G), along with being vocal about his dislike of moving to second base. Perhaps he’s burned too many bridges, and the Twins want to shake up the team's core. 

This deal would sting for Twins fans, as Lewis has the potential to be a franchise cornerstone. However, adding Luzardo would give Minnesota a legitimate playoff-caliber starter to pair with Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober. Without Lewis, extra pressure would be placed on the team’s other young infielders like Brooks Lee, Jose Miranda, and Edouard Julien. 

Mack adds catching depth to the organization with the potential to impact the big-league roster next season. In 125 games last season, he posted a .807 OPS with 30 doubles and 24 home runs. Miller was a third-round pick in 2024 and had a .603 OPS in 104 AB during his pro debut. However, he hit .381/.474/.702 (1.176) with 32 extra-base hits in 55 games during his final collegiate season. 

Trade 2: Young Pitcher-for-Hitter Swap
Twins Receive: LHP Jesús Luzardo
Marlins Receive: OF Trevor Larnach
Miami’s pitching pipeline remains one of baseball’s best, so they may be willing to trade a starting pitcher to help bolster their lineup. Last season, the Rockies were the only NL offense with a wRC+ lower than the Marlins. Larnach, a controllable outfielder with power potential, could address the Marlins’ offensive needs, especially after a breakout 2024 season. Last year, he posted a 116 OPS+ despite battling a leg injury for much of the second half. His most significant improvement came against breaking pitches, as his xSLG increased from .195 in 2023 to .385 in 2024. 

For the Twins, this move consolidates their young outfield depth into a proven commodity. Top prospects Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins have a chance to debut in 2024, which makes Larnach more expendable. Luzardo’s ceiling is a playoff-caliber starter, and with Larnach struggling to find a long-term role in Minnesota’s crowded outfield, this deal makes sense for both sides.

The Twins’ offseason moves will undoubtedly be influenced by their disappointing 2024 campaign. Adding Luzardo would give Minnesota a proven, high-upside arm to stabilize their rotation, but it would likely be only the beginning of a busy offseason. While the cost to acquire him won’t be cheap, the history between the Twins and Marlins shows that a mutually beneficial deal can be struck.

Which trade would you make? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 

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[Cory Engelhardt]

Gotta say, if I have the choice between trading Larnach or trading Lewis, I'm not going to trade Lewis.

[Twins Takes]

I would just swap Larnach for Luzardo. If we had the money you could then go get Tyler O'Niell, which I think is a clear path to competing, but who knows if it's even feasible. 

[Ely Sussman]

The Lewis scenario seems both spicy and balanced to me. If the Marlins can't get a bat like that with very high upside, I expect them to hold Luzardo into the season and gamble that he stays healthy and re-establishes himself.

Larnach doesn't really fit. Marlins have several young LHB corner OF that are ready to be tested in the majors. Don't think Larnach is a substantial enough upgrade over them.

[FlyingFinn]

If we can get Luzardo for Larnach, do it ASAP. 

[big dog]

OK, first we have to get the Marlins management team somewhere where they catch malaria. Then when they get the night-sweat fever dreams, we trade them Larnach for Luzardo, all the while whispering "sign it, this is only a dream".

Other than that, no chance. How many teams would top that offer for Luzardo? Ten? Twenty?

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Larnach for Luzardo is a pipe dream.

I love Lewis, but I love pitching more.  Trading  Lewis for Luzardo could solidify the rotation for years.  I would make that trade today.

[bjorks]

Do the Fins want a higher ceiling or more quantifiable stats? Even though it's murky, we can still project an MVP-caliber ceiling for Lewis and IMO we have 2-3 guys in the minors who profile what we THOUGHT Larnach could be. The amount of improvement seems to be a pretty wide gap and that's even if Lewis plays 120 games a year. I'd drive the moving truck to Florida for him if that's "all it took". I'd throw in Mercedes or Schobel if I had to.

[mickster]

29 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

If we can get Luzardo for Larnach, do it ASAP. 

even if we have to through in Martin or Julien

 

[tony&rodney]

Miami doesn't need a guy like Larnach right now. I'm not sure why the Marlins would trade Mack when they are desperate for catching. Lewis for Luzardo might work, but maybe Larnach and Lewis for Bryce Miller works too. I cannot envision Falvey trading Royce Lewis.

Could a Julien, Charlee Soto, and Billy Amick for Luzardo be fair?

[chpettit19]

No thanks to Jesus Luzardo. How many more injury riddled players do we need on this roster? The man has made 20 starts in a season 1 time in his major league career. He's topped 100 major league innings twice, and one of those times was 100.1 innings. Starters aren't throwing 200 innings anymore, but a guy who can't even throw 100 isn't of interest to me. 

I understand that Luzardo's ceiling is very high and he can be a very good starting pitcher, but this team needs guys who stay on the field. Adding yet another "if he goes against his entire career data set and actually plays an entire season" type player isn't of interest to me. And I get that all pitchers are injury risks. But let's not target the extreme injury risk guy coming off a season where he made 12 starts and threw 66 innings. Especially when he missed time with "elbow tightness" during that shortened season. 2023 is the only season since 2018 he hasn't been on the IL.

People talk about how the Twins wouldn't/shouldn't trade someone like Joe Ryan this offseason because his value is diminished by being hurt this last season, but he threw 135 innings in 23 starts with a 3.60 ERA and 3.44 FIP. Jesus Luzardo had 66.2 innings in 12 starts with a 5.00 ERA and 4.26 FIP. Larnach is all he's worth. If that. The Twins' players aren't the only ones who lose value when they perform poorly and get injured. Luzardo doesn't maintain his value just because his name is the same. Luzardo is the guy you target because you aren't going to offer full list price as he comes off yet another injury. The chances of him being traded this offseason are incredibly small because the Marlins are very unlikely to deal him knowing they can't get value for him. They'll keep him and give him a chance to reestablish that value. And the Twins should still stay away from him when the Marlins try to dump him and his injury problems on someone for full list price at the deadline.

Also, the position player side of this roster is a far bigger concern to me than the pitching side. Trading away hitters for pitchers doesn't make sense to me. Trading away hitters for hitters who play more would make some sense. But the offense is what let this team down, not the pitching. The offense collapsed and failed to score runs. That's why they missed the playoffs. Fix the offense (and defense). 

[gmwannabe]

Larnach straight up isn't going to do it. I think it would take at least Lewis for the fish to even consider this trade. I would set my sights higher and make the Cubs an offer they can't refuse for Steele. Lewis, Julien, and Matthews?

 

 

 

 

[Doctor Gast]

Luzardo would be a great addition, We needed him last season. Luzardo & Lopez are good friends & fellow Venezuelans.

As value goes, Lewis is an overpay (I wouldn't trade him anyway) & Larnach is an underpay. Julien is a closer fit. But MIA isn't interested in any of them, MIA is looking for prospects. So we are looking at trading Keuschal straight up but better yet if they'd be interested in taking K Culpepper, G Gonzales & Doncon in a trade I'd be overjoyed. Luzardo has always been on my target. I'm for either of these trade options I suggested, we need to jump on them & not be passive.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

The only reason he makes any sense to me is that he's left handed, which would provide a little bit of diversity in our rotation.  However, he has had one and a half good years and has been hurt. . . a lot.  Other than the handedness issue, I don't see that he necessarily slots in above Ryan and Ober.  For Larnach alone, I would consider it, but I'm not jumping up and down for it.  If we were to go the direction of the Lewis trade, Joe Mack (the catcher) would be an amazing get although he died in 1998 and would be 112 years old according to the embedded link.  Father time. . . still undefeated.

[Stew]

I'm not willing to trade Lewis in his prime, , when we're not willing to do that with Buxton or Kepler a few years back. We got the most we could get out of there years. So trading Lewis this early when we aren't paying him a lot, makes no sense  I worry about the second trade because we are losing Kepler and maybe  Castro .  Who will  play  outfield? So no to both.

[bean5302]

Luzardo will earn $6.0MM based on MLBTR estimates and Spotrac predicts $8.6MM. How are the Twins going to absorb the additional contract to begin with?

Luzardo has the potential to be an upper rotation guy, but he's only flashed it, and the 27 year old had microfractures in his spine last year. Right now, BaseballTradeValues has Luzardo equal to Royce Lewis straight up. BTV is predicting Luzardo at 2.5 WAR per season and $6MM + 9MM ($15MM total) in salary or so. Lewis is predicted at like 1.8 WAR for the next 4 years with a salary like $3 + $6 + $9 + $12MM per year. Mack has some value as a AA catcher, but Miller is a middling prospect at the moment.

Larnach isn't bringing back Luzardo. Larnach is a 2 WAR (ceiling) every day player already in arbitration, and he has virtually no up side. If he was fast and a plus defender, a team might be more willing to covet him, but these proposals ignore the reality.

Other teams do not just have to trade with Minnesota. They can choose any of the other 28 teams in baseball as a trade partner so they don't have to overpay for readily available talent.

[tony&rodney]

I'm out on Luzardo at any price because of injury concerns. Falvey needs to find bats that can also use a glove when in the field.

[jjswol]

I agree with some of the other posters here, I doubt the Marlins trade Luzardo for Larnach even up. 

As for trading Lewis, it would take some gonads to do that swap but I would do it. Hitters are easier to find than starters, particularly lefty starters.

[Fatbat]

Larnach and Julien so they can throw in a lottery ticket prospect along with Luzardo

[thelanges5]

Love to get some pitching depth. Some good rookie talent but they haven’t gone beyond 130 innings pitched (give or take a few). Gotta trade Paddack for the best offer we receive. Ryan has either been injured or his performance has slipped late since since acquired from the Rays. FO will have to get creative this offseason.  

[Ryan_K]

so as a Miami guy, we don't need Larnach, Royce is interesting, would want to see if we can build bigger package and remove our catcher from the trade.

 

Both have some injury concerns so it's fair, but if Jesus got healthy you'd be looking one top 25 prospect and another top 70 prospect for 2 years, we only do Royce if we sign him to extension 

[JD-TWINS]

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I'm out on Luzardo at any price because of injury concerns. Falvey needs to find bats that can also use a glove when in the field.

Completly agree, out on Luzardo…….his WHIP is over 1.200 for his career and it’s been over 1.200 his last 2 seasons.

He was out with back problems and had 16 starts with a 5.00 ERA in ‘24. EVERYONE here rides the front office about making bad trades and trades for pitchers that are hurt and don’t pan out ……… Jesus Luzardo may be the poster child for this scenario.

After the ‘22 season I was in love with the guy!! Couldn’t imagine why Twins would trade for Lopez instead of Luzardo……….sooo very glad they did not. He’s a major risk and there certainly is no reason to covet him. …. I don’t think I’d trade Luke Keaschall for him straight up.

Non starter trade for me.

I think our staff is just fine!

TWINS need a BAT and a decent, youthful Catcher. They need to move one of their current catchers in trade. Also, they need to move pitchers that are of interest to trade partners……. Castro can be a trade piece as well as Julien. Pitchers may be Matthews - C. Lewis - Duran - Henriquez - Paddack.

[Jacksson]

What everyone  - especially Twins front office seems to forget is that player trades CAN involve more than just TWO teams.  Adding a third or fourth team to the deal and involving the movement of additional players may just be what it takes to get a deal done while adding to the possibility of getting who/what you want at a cost you are willing to pay.

[dxpavelka]

In a world in which Luzardo could be had for Larnach straight up I'm not sure why any other discussion is had

[JesusisLord7]

I seem to remember when we were playing the Astros in the playoffs the only Twins rising up to the occasion was Lewis. I'd rather trade Carlos Correa and his salary than Lewis. But then again the Marlins don't want to pay anyone. They can have Julian. If they want an outfielders I'd trade Wallner and Larnach. 

Personally I'd rather move Correa, Lopez, and Buxton and build around.....

Rodriguez, Jenkins and Wallner in OF
Lewis at 3rd (Marcelo Mayer from Boston SS in Lopez trade), Lee 2nd and Julian 1st
Jeffers Catcher
Luke Keaschall DH and 1B

 

[Werbellik]

Larnach for Luzardo? Wow. Just wow. 

[UK Twin]

It would more likely need to be Wallner instead of Larnach to tempt the Marlins. More team control and more upside.  TBH I would still do that - Wallner for Luzardo. With Rodriguez coming in 2025 and Jenkins not long after I do think Wallner could be a trade chip. 

[Doctor Wu]

15 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I'm out on Luzardo at any price because of injury concerns. Falvey needs to find bats that can also use a glove when in the field.

Many Twins fans have been clamoring for Luzardo for a couple of years now. He's always been an intriguing pitcher with lots of potential, but the frequent injury concerns that you mentioned are a red flag. That said, if they could trade a player like Larnach straight up for him I'd do it. But as others have suggested, I think it would take a lot more to make that trade, and no way am I giving up Lewis for Luzardo. 

[Trov]

I do not see anyway Luzardo for Larnach straight up would happen.  If Miami was willing to do that, you jump at it.  I doubt Miami would want to do that as well because they put themselves into full rebuild mode I feel like with trades they made last year. So why would they want to bring in a guy that is just above average hitter that will only have a couple more years of control for a good rotation pitcher?  

I am not keen on the system of Miami to see how close they feel their window is, and Lewis could move things because even if they are not ready he could get swapped for something.  

[LambchoP]

We aren't trading Lewis anytime soon. He could be one of our best hitters, you don't get rid of a guy like that when we are desperate for offense. Luzardo would be great for us. He's left handed which is a look we don't have. He strikes guys out and is good friends and teammates with Lopez. Maybe working together, Lopez could help Luzardo improve his game somehow. Yes he had a down year and yes he's injury prone, but that is the only reason we might be able to get him. I don't think Larnach would be enough. Adding a prospect might do it. This would allow Festa Mathews and Morris some much needed time in AAA before they're called up. Larnach can be replaced with a free agent RH outfielder or some combo of Castro, Martin or Keirsey Jr, at least until Rodriguez or Rosario are ready. That being said, I highly doubt we do anything like this. :(