Ripple Effects: Infield Out of Order

[Matthew Lenz]

The last two months of the Minnesota Twins' season was, to borrow a phrase, a total system failure. While everyone has a part in the collapse, we’re going to look at how the infielders contributed down the stretch.

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

This piece continues our Ripple Effects series, digging into the multiple factors that led to the Twins' disappointing finish and their interactions with one another. For more, see Matthew Taylor's piece about the self-defeating decision to slash payroll; Gregg Masterson's on the way the team's existing payroll commitments conflict with a reduction like this one; and Eric Blonigen's breakdown of the team's failure to make meaningful, trusting connections with their fan base over the last year.

For the purpose of this exercise, we are going to look at the contributions (or, errr, lackthereof) from the five infield positions as a group starting on Aug. 18th, through the end of the season. It's on that date that the Twins started the day 70-53 and stood just two games behind the Guardians for first place in the AL Central. At that time, they were firmly in an AL Wild Card spot. You know what happened next, but let's talk about a particular part of what happened next.

We’ll start by looking at how the infield group impacted the offense, before diving into their fielding metrics.

Struggles At The Plate
While there were bright spots within the group (namely Carlos Santana, Kyle Farmer and the little bit of Carlos Correa we actually saw), the infield unit batted a putrid .221/.284/.340, good for a 77 wRC+. To make matters worse, of the 785 plate appearances the group accrued, almost 52% came while hitting in the top half of the lineup, and just over 40% came with runners on base. Putting it plainly, in the most crucial points at the most crucial time of the season some of Minnesota's most critical hitters didn't meet the moment--over and over again.

Christian Vázquez wasn't brought in via free agency in 2023 because of his ability at the plate, but a .426 OPS with a 16:2 K:BB ratio is inexcusable, especially considering that he and Ryan Jeffers continued to evenly split time behind the plate while Jeffers was producing at a league-average clip. What's worse is that, across 24 plate appearances with runners on base, the 34-year-old veteran struck out as much as he put the ball in play.

Jose Miranda, who spent time at both infield corners, didn't register a walk across 55 plate appearances to close out the season. Miranda spent the first four months of the season as arguably the Twins' best hitter, then went pear-shaped for the final two months--and especially the last 39 games, wherein he had only two extra base hits and carried a wRC+ of 43. Unsurprisingly, his hard-hit rate of 18.6% was one of the worst on the team.

It's hard to pin a lot of blame on the rookie Brooks Lee, who played all around the diamond except first, given his lack of experience and the fact he was returning from injury. In his first playoff push, however, the 23-year-old used 66 at-bats to generate a 46.4% ground ball rate and a 23.2% hard hit rate while only walking twice. Turns out “just put the ball in play” isn't an end-all, be-all solution to hitting woes. Who knew?

I don't know what happened to the 2023 version of Edouard Julien, but what we saw in the final 39 games really just encapsulated his 2024 campaign. Things went so poorly for him that I can't even say I was surprised or disappointed by the last month and a half of the season. Instead, the lifeless at-bats and shoddy defense at the keystone were just… expected. You could see him carrying the weight of his own struggles around the field with him, unable to win the mental battles that make the physical ones even reachable.

Willi Castro has to get some blame too, because he had 75 plate appearances across a smattering of games on the dirt in the final weeks. The Twins' most valuable player (from a marginal dollars per win perspective) over the last two years mustered a slash line of .180/.284/.262 and a wRC+ of 61, although he did walk nine times despite the low OBP.

The last 39 games were one protracted slump for Royce Lewis, who had the worst stretch of his young career. His strikeout rate ballooned to 25.3%, and his OPS plummeted to .478. His ability to handle fastballs came and went all season, but he hit rock bottom in September, where he had a .181 wOBA against the offering. The guy who has come through in a myriad of clutch moments in his short time with the Twins had just two hits in high-leverage situations, a double and a home run. The old adage tells us that hitting is contagious. So, it would seem, is not hitting, and the team's hype man is a major reason the Twins season ended on Sept. 29.

Defensive Dissonance
As a group, the infield defense was a strength for most of the season. As you might suspect, that wasn't the case in September. That may be no more evident than seeing that opponents reached base at a .316 clip on ground balls over the final six weeks, compared to .252 prior to Aug. 18.

Looking at Outs Above Average (OAA) for the month of September, Carlos Santana graded out as the only plus defender; the rest of the infielders combined for -12 OAA. For reference, the same group combined for 11 OAA for the first five months of the season. Lastly, while FIP reflects the defense of the entire team, it's worth noting that the pitching staff went from the sixth-best FIP up to Aug. 18 to 15th through the rest of the season. Given their inability to trust the fielders behind them, one can assume the infield played a sizable role in that discrepancy.

The Great Collapse of 2024 may not just be the worst in organizational history, but has to be up there in Minnesota sports history. While everyone played a role, and the spotlight has been on ownership and the bullpen, the infielders also need to be held accountable for their inability to perform when it mattered most.

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[The Mad King]

Defense was atrocious. Stop with the lefty righty platoon at bat and play the best defense you can. When you have no clear cut defensive player, then you can platoon. 

[tony&rodney]

Have to say that I felt sorry for the Twins pitchers because of the poor defense. So many plays not made, bobbles, and weak throws. I don't know what happened, but the gloves need to be fixed. Two thoughts kept coming back to me as the season played out. 1. Can the Twins move forward with many of these same players, which means counting on some major improvements? 2. The quote by Gary Gaetti, "It's hard to field the ball when you have both hands around your throat."

I don't believe the Twins choked though and I'm hopeful of improvement with some roster moves as well. The close to the year was difficult to watch and raised a ton of questions about talent, real and perceived.

 

 

[Aerodeliria]

Those championship Twins teams played good defense; that as much as anything was the key to their successes. That TB series was a nightmare on defense. Two games were thrown away by poor decisions, indecision and errors.

[Beast]

Don’t worry, this place will be back to saying our infield is stacked so deep that we need to sit out of the free agent market and trade people away again in a matter of weeks.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

18 minutes ago, Aerodeliria said:

Those championship Twins teams played good defense; that as much as anything was the key to their successes. That TB series was a nightmare on defense. Two games were thrown away by poor decisions, indecision and errors.

In 1991 they were second best in errors and fielding percentage, but were 4th in runs scored, best in K%, and second in wOBA. They frickin HIT!

[stringer bell]

Very interesting posting and the fact that the performance by the same players was so much better until the final quarter of the season is puzzling. They seemed to all fatigue at once and I don’t see any real explanation for it. 

[Reptevia]

Not to mention the atrocities committed on the base paths. This all comes down to a lack of fundamentals. This coaching staff simply doesn’t value it. 

[tony&rodney]

Detroit and Cleveland put on an exhibition of great baseball today. 

The Twins need to put the season behind them and rededicate themselves to playing sound baseball.

[old nurse]

I find it od that the writer can disparage the Twins for not spending money and disparage Vazquez in the same story. Withe the glut of horrible play by so many infielders, did it matter if they spent money?

[S Bart]

Lewis' comment, "I don't do slumps," was followed by a terrific slump. He has made other comments that have been a bit questionable including ones about teammates and coaching decisions. It will be interesting to see if he is truly a force on the team in 2025 or a flash in the pan show off. Personally, the jury is out on him in my view. One thing that he needs to seriously work on this winter is hitting pitches in his strikeout prone areas. Pitchers have figured out his weak zones. 

[Mark G]

What I take away from this article the most is that there isn't anything on Matthew's stat sheets that aren't on Rocco's.  At the end of the day, the players do the best they can do.  Obviously, there are times that isn't enough, as we saw in September.  But also, at the end of the same proverbial day, Rocco is the one writing the line up card.  If the under performers are in the top half of the line up, maybe, just maybe, we might want to look at the line up as a factor.  As has been said above, maybe we take a look at the platoon plan and take defense into account just as much as right handed vs left handed, seeing as the pitchers are going to change throughout the game.  

I will never blame the manager for the under performance of the players.  I will also never blame the players for being put in a situation they struggle to perform in.  At the end of my never ending day, the job of the manager is to get the most out of the players he has on any given never ending day.  Neither part of this equation did their job well.  If all we do is change players, that is only half the equation.  If all we do is change the manager..........that is still only half the equation.  We need to take a hard look not just at the players, and not just the manager (or coaches), but the way the two parts work as one, because as much as anything else, that was a big part of the collapse.  

[stringer bell]

Last year, the team seemed deep and finished strong. This year almost everyone slumped late and the team appeared exhausted at the end of the year. Same manager and pretty much the same coaching staff.

Regarding the platooning complaints, the major criticism was not allowing the young lefty hitters a chance to face lefty pitchers. I submit that defense was part of this decision, with Margot, Farmer and Santana all being considered superior to their left handed counterparts (not sure if that is factual with Margot).

As was mentioned in the OP, the infield had a +11 DRS with the same guys who struggled so mightily in the field in August/September and gave it all back. 

[Karbo]

9 hours ago, Reptevia said:

Not to mention the atrocities committed on the base paths. This all comes down to a lack of fundamentals. This coaching staff simply doesn’t value it. 

So correct! This staff under Rocco has gotten worse it seems each year playing a fundamentally strong defense. If they don't start playing better D they are destined to lose a lot more, as their hitting just isn't strong enough to make up for it.

[terrydactyls]

11 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Very interesting posting and the fact that the performance by the same players was so much better until the final quarter of the season is puzzling. They seemed to all fatigue at once and I don’t see any real explanation for it. 

Good thing they had all those mandatory days off.  😁

[Trov]

The only thing we can hope is that the players will learn from this.  Lewis hit a slump like he never had, which killed us.  Julien became just unplayable.  Lee did not adjust to pitchers when they adjusted to him(I think he may have been fighting through some pain from injuries as well because until his injury he was doing okay).  Miranda fell off the face of the earth and makes you wonder who he really is.  Guys that helped carry the line up at different times when we were winning a ton all fell apart at same time.  No way can you win when everyone stops hitting all at once.  Then all the little mistakes, in the field or on the base paths looks so much bigger. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

13 hours ago, The Mad King said:

Defense was atrocious. Stop with the lefty righty platoon at bat and play the best defense you can. When you have no clear cut defensive player, then you can platoon. 

Agree 100%.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

11 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Good thing they had all those mandatory days off.  😁

Adrenalin gives energy bursts when needed. The Twins lacked adrenalin.  

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Just now, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Adrenalin gives energy bursts when needed. The Twins lacked adrenalin.  

I have never agreed with Gardy's famous quotes, that it is a long season. It is not. It is a short season because the games are played one game at a time.  No matter whether it is April, July or September, the most important game is the one game today. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

12 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Very interesting posting and the fact that the performance by the same players was so much better until the final quarter of the season is puzzling. They seemed to all fatigue at once and I don’t see any real explanation for it. 

"Fatigue", or lack of energy, can be contagious in any endeavor. 

[rv78]

5 hours ago, Mark G said:

What I take away from this article the most is that there isn't anything on Matthew's stat sheets that aren't on Rocco's.  At the end of the day, the players do the best they can do.  Obviously, there are times that isn't enough, as we saw in September.  But also, at the end of the same proverbial day, Rocco is the one writing the line up card.  If the under performers are in the top half of the line up, maybe, just maybe, we might want to look at the line up as a factor.  As has been said above, maybe we take a look at the platoon plan and take defense into account just as much as right handed vs left handed, seeing as the pitchers are going to change throughout the game.  

I will never blame the manager for the under performance of the players.  I will also never blame the players for being put in a situation they struggle to perform in.  At the end of my never ending day, the job of the manager is to get the most out of the players he has on any given never ending day.  Neither part of this equation did their job well.  If all we do is change players, that is only half the equation.  If all we do is change the manager..........that is still only half the equation.  We need to take a hard look not just at the players, and not just the manager (or coaches), but the way the two parts work as one, because as much as anything else, that was a big part of the collapse.  

At the end of the never ending day you must ask yourself WHY if you want to fix the problem. Why did the players under perform? If it is a lack of talent that is one thing that can't be fixed. Are we to believe that the players don't have the talent? Didn't seem that way earlier in the season. So it MUST be something else. If it is fundamentals or the WAY the Manager manages that CAN be fixed. Are we to believe that the players were exhausted and simply ran out of gas when most of them were platooned to death most of the season? That really doesn't equate into a common sense belief. That only leaves one aspect left to examine and that is team philosophy, chemistry, over-use of analytics, lack of confidence from the Manager and Coaches, poor fundamentals and unless the players aren't doing what they are told that squarely falls on the FO, Manager, and Coaches.

[thelanges5]

This is the biggest question in the off-season IMO. Infield defense and offense fell off a cliff in the 2nd half. Can these guys make adjustments, stay healthy, and rise to the occasion? 

[mickster]

To me this is the biggest reason we need to bring Santana back.   

[mrcharlie]

15 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Very interesting posting and the fact that the performance by the same players was so much better until the final quarter of the season is puzzling. They seemed to all fatigue at once and I don’t see any real explanation for it. 

Look closer then... The body language of all but Santana and Correa clearly says, "I'm tired and not focused on the job."  Conditioning routine needs to be addressed and enforced team wide.  As I have said numerous times; the coaching staff needs to respond or bring in others that will lead the players improvement.

[bean5302]

Brooks Lee gets a pass because he was coming back from injury and because he was a rookie?

He got plate appearances, a lot of plate appearances, and he struggled massively with them even after he got time off to recover from his physical ailments and other players had to push through theirs. His job was to hit, and he didn't. 

A month of .178/.200/.301 OPS .501 wRC+ 32 with 2 walks over those 75 PA isn't getting it done. With a miserable 27.4% hard hit rate and an average exit velocity of 86.7mph, it's not like Lee was deserving of better. His rolling xwOBA chart is... tough to look at.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, mrcharlie said:

Look closer then... The body language of all but Santana and Correa clearly says, "I'm tired and not focused on the job."  Conditioning routine needs to be addressed and enforced team wide.  As I have said numerous times; the coaching staff needs to respond or bring in others that will lead the players improvement.

The same staff that was here in 2023 when they finished strong?

I don't get this idea that somehow they forgot how to coach.....the easiest explanation is the players didn't play well. 

[Doctor Gast]

IMO motivation & lack of veteran leadership had a lot to do with performance down the road. There was a lot of complaining about Lewis's arm slot when he threw. Teach him how to throw, help him to achieve that through coaching. Don't force him in a position he doesn't feel comfortable in, that'll zap any motivation he has. I actually thought Julien improved at 2B, where he finally got to balls that normally bleed through. He couldn't make the play but still it's progress although stats paint a different picture. W/o Correa, the veteran leadership wasn't there so younger players were lost. Although FO made a lot of meaningless moves, they did nothing to really help the club while social media blamed ownership. This robs the team of motivation, w/o motivation it's a very long season. 

[Larry Janisewski]

5 hours ago, rv78 said:

At the end of the never ending day you must ask yourself WHY if you want to fix the problem. Why did the players under perform? If it is a lack of talent that is one thing that can't be fixed. Are we to believe that the players don't have the talent? Didn't seem that way earlier in the season. So it MUST be something else. If it is fundamentals or the WAY the Manager manages that CAN be fixed. Are we to believe that the players were exhausted and simply ran out of gas when most of them were platooned to death most of the season? That really doesn't equate into a common sense belief. That only leaves one aspect left to examine and that is team philosophy, chemistry, over-use of analytics, lack of confidence from the Manager and Coaches, poor fundamentals and unless the players aren't doing what they are told that squarely falls on the FO, Manager, and Coaches.

I agree. As a disheartened Twins fan, I can't help but wonder if the problem wasn't the manager's philosophy about trying to take advantage of the righty/lefty matchup. There were times when a player was in the starting lineup and replaced before he even batted because the opponent changed pitchers. Did the players lose focus or confidence? IMO, you start the players that give you the best chance to win and let them play

[David Maro]

Hard to have good defense when the only position in the infield that was consistent was 1st base.Because Julien couldn't hit 6 different 2nd baseman played.And 3rd base was no better when Lewis was lost day one.Only Rocco and Falvey think they have 12 platoon players on the bench.Yes the team had injuries,but pick someone to play a position for more than one game at a time.Moving on to the outfield LF and CF had basically all the same problems.And everyone who fellows this team knows that Buxton would have a tuff time making it through the season.

[old nurse]

5 hours ago, Karbo said:

So correct! This staff under Rocco has gotten worse it seems each year playing a fundamentally strong defense. If they don't start playing better D they are destined to lose a lot more, as their hitting just isn't strong enough to make up for it.

By unearned runs the Twins were below average. Of course the truly awful teams were closer to 100 unturned runs while the Twins were near 50. The limiting factor is range as the Twins have the worse USR150. Coaching is not going to make up for that