The Twins Keep Getting Punched in the Mouth, and They Struggle to Punch Back

[Matthew Trueblood]

Strictly speaking, the Twins come back to win games in which they once trailed at an above-average rate. Speaking a bit more broadly, they've been persistently unable to come back after falling behind by multiple runs, even in the middle of games. Why?

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

A raging Rocco Baldelli was supposed to wake the Twins up, and make them remember who they are. That was last Sunday; they lost Monday night to the hapless Halos. They won the next two days, though, and then a returning Byron Buxton was supposed to give the team a semblance of its real identity back. That was Friday night; they got thwacked by the Reds. The next big red button in the line was to reactivate Carlos Correa, which the team did Saturday; they got well and truly shellacked by the Reds.

Things just aren't working, right now. That's not news. The most troubling trend, though, isn't that the team's grand gestures seem to keep coming to nothing. It's that they keep losing, and losing in dispirited, dispiriting, helpless-looking, hopeless-looking ways. It doesn't feel like this team has a big comeback in it, and so every time they fall behind, it might as well be a loss, even when there are plenty of outs left in the game, in theory.

Some of that is an illusion, of course. That's how baseball works. We can feel a certain way, watching a team play over a few weeks or even a couple of months, but reality is not obligated to conform to our feelings. The Twins are 36-70 in games in which, at some point, they trailed. That .340 winning percentage is actually above the league average in such games.

They haven't come back from a deficit greater than four runs all season, which is interesting, but it's not exactly shocking. The Brewers, to grab another random good team, have not come back from down by more than three all year. Having a good pitching staff means rarely falling behind by such a wide margin at all. Some teams, too, choose not to chase wins from behind, which means a lot of low-leverage relievers parading in when the team is behind in the middle innings--even by just a run or two. Baldelli is a big believer in that managerial paradigm.

Then, too, there's the fact that the Minnesota bullpen hasn't turned out to be as deep as we all hoped. If a team has seven or eight reliable relievers, even the least of them can keep them in the game and facilitate the occasional comeback. This year's relief corps has not been that kind of group. When Baldelli sighs and flips his mental switch from the 'A' bullpen to the 'B' bullpen, the guys upon whom he calls more often turn the game into a blowout than freeze the opponent where they are.

The Twins have lost 32 games by at least four runs this year, including the last two. Unless the Red Sox storm past them to claim a playoff spot, no team will qualify for the postseason with more such defeats on their record. The Brewers have only lost by that much 16 times. The Guardians have only lost that way 23 times. It's been an unfortunate habit of this team not only to fall behind, but to let things get out of hand once they do.

In 37 games this year, the Twins have trailed by at least three runs after six innings. Only six teams--none of them any good at all--have been in such a lousy position going into the final innings more often. Minnesota is 1-36 in those games. All season, in 47 games in which they trailed by at least two tallies after seven frames, the Twins have no wins. The only other teams not to win a game in which they were more than a run behind with two innings to play are the White Sox, Nationals, and Blue Jays.

The funny thing is, from the seventh inning to the end of a game, only the Diamondbacks average more runs per game than the Twins. Removing extra innings, the Twins score 1.59 runs per game from the seventh onward, joining Arizona, the Royals, the Yankees, and the Padres as the only teams putting up more than 1.5 runs per contest during that phase. Why can't a team who scores that much come back from down even a couple of runs, even once or twice? Why can't they finish off close wins?

Some of it is managerial choices, although they're sound ones. Some of it is roster construction, constrained by bad ownership choices. Some of it is, surely, dumb luck. The frustrating feeling that another part of it is some shortfall in terms of heart or offensive intensity is probably another illusion, like the idea that they don't come back at all when they fall behind. That one, though, is harder to shake. Sometimes feelings carry a reality of their own, and sometimes there's a reality that numbers don't capture neatly. The Twins aren't good at making comebacks. They'd better change that reality, though, because they need some gut-check wins down the stretch, and the deficits keep coming.

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[Whitey333]

Well researched article.  I realize with all the new analytics that the "eye test" does t mean much apparently.  Anyone can " see" there has been no life in this team for weeks.  They play with no sense of urgency or passion.  They have lost 8 of their last 11 and worse yet 18 of their last 25.  Their wild card lead is down to 2.5 games against both the Tigers and Mariners.  The " eye test" says it all; analytics not withstanding.

[Doctor Gast]

The team is tired & frustrated. Starting from the offseason by not trading to cover our real needs and instead making frivolous moves that did nothing to strengthen the team yet disrupted the chemistry that continued into the deadline. Because they had done nothing they overstretched our rookies who had valiantly performed as long as they could on fumes. They mismanaged the BP, and wanted to play Lewis out of position despite his unwillingness this coupled with extended injuries to Buck & Correa plus other things. I don't think the return of Buck, Correa & the rally sausage is enough to undo the damage.

[Doctor Wu]

Then, too, there's the fact that the Minnesota bullpen hasn't turned out to be as deep as we all hoped.

Not as deep?! Ha! I remember back in late March and early April when so many people were hailing our bullpen as one of the best in baseball! Okay, it's still a pretty good bullpen overall, but there are some obvious holes and it's going to stay that way until next season. Unless Kyle Farmer turns out to be that extra bullpen arm we were searching for. Bullpen issues aside, this team needs some sort of spark or energy boost, something to get the batters motivated and productive and putting men on base again. In a fairy tale world the return of Buxton and Correa would have initiated a new winning streak ... but still waiting for that to materialize. 

[Fezig]

A rudderless ship with a clueless captain tends to not sail very far.

[thelanges5]

They look cooked. 

[LambchoP]

They've been playing with no heart for over a month now. I think the lack of reinforcements at the deadline pretty much set the tone. It is almost looking like they're just running out the string until the off-season:(

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

They play with no sense of urgency or passion.

Panic is a sense of urgency

[DJL44]

Lots of emotional projection in the comments here. Are these the true emotions of the team or emotions you are having and projecting onto the team?

[Linus]

It’s not that complicated. 3 of their 5 starters are struggling and they get pulled for a bullpen that leads the league in inherited runners scoring. Their best hope is for the lineup to switch from famine to feast and just out score clubs. 

[David Maro]

This team is flat with a manager who has lost the team.They are now ready for the season to end.If you watch them hit they are in a hurry for the at bat to be over.

You shouldn't need a sausage or a hat or a vest to play the game you all claim to love.

This off season needs to have top to bottom changes made to shake the organization up.Many of the other teams have budgets in the same range and are looking for better than this team.

[thelanges5]

Don’t see a game thread for today, but Buck and Correa are already out of the lineup? We just giving up on the series then?

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

The team is tired & frustrated. Starting from the offseason by not trading to cover our real needs and instead making frivolous moves that did nothing to strengthen the team yet disrupted the chemistry that continued into the deadline. Because they had done nothing they overstretched our rookies who had valiantly performed as long as they could on fumes. They mismanaged the BP, and wanted to play Lewis out of position despite his unwillingness this coupled with extended injuries to Buck & Correa plus other things. I don't think the return of Buck, Correa & the rally sausage is enough to undo the damage.

Why would the Twins be tired?  The players all have mandatory days off and many have spent a lot of time on the IL.  They should be well rested.  After all, isn't that point of mandatory days off?

[tarheeltwinsfan]

16 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Lots of emotional projection in the comments here. Are these the true emotions of the team or emotions you are having and projecting onto the team?

Good, sound psychology DJL.  It is my opinion that no one wants to win more badly than the players, manager, coaches and staff. We fans can simply chose to not go to the games, leave early or turn off the tv,  Being a fan is much easier, than being a player. 

[terrydactyls]

4 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Don’t see a game thread for today, but Buck and Correa are already out of the lineup? We just giving up on the series then?

IMHO, even the Twins Daily writers seem tired of this team.  Many of the articles lately seem to be newer versions of ones written previously.  And, as you pointed out, they didn't even bother with a recap of last night's game.  Speaking for the Twins fans not living in Minnesota, Twins Daily is the primary way to stay up to date on the team.

[insagt1]

Sure is. I'm one of those fans who live far away. Can we remember what the dugout looked like when Nellie Cruz was here? He was the leader. He was the glue. He also seemed to make everyone happy. We don't have that with this team. thought it would be Buck or Carlos, but when you miss so much time, its just not possible to be that leader.

Fans can't measure 'heart'. All we can do is observe and watch things like body language, player reactions (heads up or shoulders drooping). And sometimes what we 'see' is a bunch of guys who aren't as excited about winning as we'd like. Sure, they all say the right things most the time, but its rare when the players or the manager comes clean in public.

You won't hear a post game interview (in most cases) where the question is asked: 'so what happened tonite'? and the response is 'we suck'; 'we aren't good enough'; 'we're pretty much done'. Thats not going to happen. So all we have is what we see. Everyone sees different things. But the above article does tell a tale. Maybe there isn't enough 'fight' in these guys once they fall behind. Sure seems that way. Thats the perception anyway.

One has to hope though, that as pros, they all want to win. Thing is how much are they willing to sacrifice to make it happen? The White Sox are just not talented enough so 115 losses is to be expected. Twins have talent, but this year a lot of it isn't producing, or its sitting in sick bay.

I don't think these guys deserve a playoff spot. Their play over the past month hasn't been as intense as the 3 teams chasing them. One of them will unseat the Twins and put them out of their misery this season. OR...maybe they go on a season ending 10 game win streak (it has happened before) and all will be forgiven and forgotten. Gotta love the game of baseball.

 

 

[FargoFanMan]

Yes Correa and Buck are back but 2 players can’t carry this team if the rest aren’t playing up to their potential. Plus they’ve been out for how long. The fact that they can’t even bring in a guy like Hector Neris to help the bullpen for a couple million dollars or make a trade to bring in anybody better than Trevor Richards shows that ownership not being able to take on ANY money shows that Falvey and Levine have been hamstrung by ownership. This dark cloud of payroll has hung over this team since last October/November. As soon as the playoffs ended last year there has been this seed growing in the pit of everyone’s stomach. From the mishandled TV fiasco. Barely acting in the off-season. Joe Pohlads “Right Sizing” interview. The in season TV fiasco with comcast. Then, not helping the team at all at the deadline. The front office has shown in the past they’re willing to make moves. The fact that for a billion dollar franchise you’re not willing to take on 5-10 million to help make a push shows that ownership doesn’t care about this team and is out of touch. They took something great in last years run and turned it into a bucket of rotten fruit. Well, it’s come to a head in September of 2024. Also, they didn’t make any moves last year at the deadline. As Twins fans I guess we’re stupid for not seeing the writing on the wall at last years deadline. I think I remember this same thing happening when a different GM was in control in the late 2000’s. A team or maybe just an ownership group unwilling to push a team over the hump with a big move. If history repeats itself we all know how this story plays out. Get ready for a full rebuild in 3-5 years with no WS contender in sight. Remember that playoff contention was always the goal. Not World Series contention.

[Whitey333]

1 hour ago, thelanges5 said:

Don’t see a game thread for today, but Buck and Correa are already out of the lineup? We just giving up on the series then?

Well said.  I couldn't agree with you more.  Buxton and Correa not in starting lineup today?  Correa was off for over 2 months.  Was the 4 innings he played yesterday just too tiring?  Even the radio broadcasters had said it would have been a good game for Buxton and especially Correa to get some swings in.  Not play them today?  A home game for a team that needs to win games?  What a joke we have for a manager and FO.

[AKTwinsFan]

It's due to bad plate discipline, a lack of protecting the strike zone, swinging at borderline pitches and missing center cut fastballs. And also the use of relievers, Baldelli can't just make a consistent bullpen (most nights), instead he throws in the highest ERA relievers to give up the game, which lately has been 6 or more runs before thinking about changing pitchers. They ONLY need to face 3 minimum!

[Maybe Next Year]

Unbelievable! Buxton and Correa are not in the lineup today. I hate to say it but I hope the Twins miss the playoffs so heads will roll - especially Baldelli's. He can't be gone soon enough. 

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, Fezig said:

A rudderless ship with a clueless captain tends to not sail very far.

Not really sure how a Manager is supposed to overcome 5 hits in each of the last 2 games - while giving up 19 runs. Strategy doesn’t have much to do with overcoming zero performance by the professional athletes.

[JD-TWINS]

15 minutes ago, AKTwinsFan said:

It's due to bad plate discipline, a lack of protecting the strike zone, swinging at borderline pitches and missing center cut fastballs. And also the use of relievers, Baldelli can't just make a consistent bullpen (most nights), instead he throws in the highest ERA relievers to give up the game, which lately has been 6 or more runs before thinking about changing pitchers. They ONLY need to face 3 minimum!

Alcala had a sub 2.00 ERA entering the Sunday Texas Masacre - 9 pitches 4 run lead was gone. Alcala Friday night could have been described as gasoline on the fire after 6-7 pitches. For months most here begged for Varland to be out in the Pen where he’d be much more effective …… Saturday night just proved he’s OK some days and not so good at all on others.

[Linehan]

Nice article. I imagine like most of the people who post on this site I played sports most of my life and virtually every time I competed in anything, I did the best I could because human nature is that I wanted to win plus it’s a lot more fun that way, the twins players are no different than the rest of us, except they also have the added incentive of playing for large sums of money. The gentleman who posted that it’s not very complicated, was correct we’re down to two competent starting pitchers, and a very weak bullpen. Three best position players one has been in a massive slump for the last six weeks, one has been injured for the last two months, and one is going to play less than 2/3 of the regular season games. What is surprising to me in all of this is that the twins actually have a better record this year than last. Of course it’s disappointing. The pohlads won’t spend any of their billions to improve the team when even Carlos Correa was going public about what we needed to do with the trade deadline but sometimes life just isn’t fair. The good news is that against all odds we may still make the playoffs and that we do have a significant group of high-level prospects that could make the next few seasons, competitive and fun. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

Well said.  I couldn't agree with you more.  Buxton and Correa not in starting lineup today?  Correa was off for over 2 months.  Was the 4 innings he played yesterday just too tiring?  

They are STILL INJURED. The medical staff said both players will be day-to-day for the rest of the season.

[chinmusic]

It is astounding that the Twins somehow still have a 2.5 game cushion for the 3rd wild card spot! Whether there is justification for this is not really relevant. The standings don't lie. I would never "hope" that my favourite team misses the playoffs, even if it's a quick exit. 

I watched the condensed version (mlb TV) of the Mariners/Rangers game last night. Crisply played. I have a sense that Seattle will sneak in to the post season. Of course, I still want to see the Twins make it; worthy or not. So, go team!

[Badgolfer34]

3 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

They look cooked. 

Just need to get the season over and make some player and coaching staff changes.. They are gassed .

[NotAboutWinning]

39 minutes ago, Maybe Next Year said:

Unbelievable! Buxton and Correa are not in the lineup today. I hate to say it but I hope the Twins miss the playoffs so heads will roll - especially Baldelli's. He can't be gone soon enough. 

That might be the case if this was an organization that cared more about championships than profit & loss statements ☹️

[dberthia]

Almost everyone in the organization is equally to blame for this situation, but IMHO these players need a manager who's capable of reading the room and lighting a fire when appropriate. Baldelli isn't that guy.

[USAFChief]

37 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Not really sure how a Manager is supposed to overcome 5 hits in each of the last 2 games - while giving up 19 runs. Strategy doesn’t have much to do with overcoming zero performance by the professional athletes.

Nothing is ever Baldelli's fault. Nor his responsibility. Nothing. Ever.

 

One wonders what exactly IS his job description. 

[USAFChief]

4 minutes ago, dberthia said:

Almost everyone in the organization is equally to blame for this situation, but IMHO these players need a manager who's capable of reading the room and lighting a fire when appropriate. Baldelli isn't that guy.

Anybody who saw Lee casually jog after the ground ball that clanked off his glove last night...while the Cincy player who hit it streaked to second--knows where to start looking for answers. 

Instead, Baldelli has Lee in today's starting lineup.