Final: Cubs 7, Twins 3: Home Run Bug Bites Pablo López Again, Cubs Cruise

[Ted Schwerzler]

Pablo López was on the mound Tuesday night for the Minnesota Twins, but it wasn't a good outing for Rocco Baldelli's ace. He lasted just five innings, and Royce Lewis's longball was wasted as the team's winning streak was snapped.

Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

Box Score
Starting Pitcher: Pablo López 5.0 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 2 K (88 pitches, 55 strikes)
Home Runs: Royce Lewis (14), Christian Vázquez (6)
Bottom 3 WPA: Pablo López (-.178), Manuel Margot (-.104), Randy Dobnak (-.101)

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Paredes Pummels Pablo
Pablo López has not been the same ace for this Twins staff that he was a season ago. Plenty of that has been rooted in an inability to keep the ball in the yard. After getting a pair of outs in the first inning Tuesday night, he allowed singles to Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger. A Brooks Lee throwing error put runners on the corners, but it didn’t matter, as they trotted home following an Isaac Paredes dinger to make it 3-0.

Paredes got López again in the third inning. This time, it was just a single, but he drove home Inver Grove Heights native Michael Busch on the play. Before Minnesota could get on the board, they found themselves in a 4-0 hole.

Royce Rolls Again
You pick whatever tagline you’d like. Whether it’s the fact that he doesn’t slump, or there is ice cream in his veins, Royce Lewis continues to be otherworldly. Despite Cubs starter Shota Imanaga rolling for most of the evening, Lewis exacted revenge for a first-inning strikeout. With Carlos Santana on, Lewis blasted a liner to left field for his 14th dinger of the season. The Twins halved the deficit, cutting it to 4-2.

After a short start by López, Randy Dobnak took over for the sixth inning. Dansby Swanson swatted a ball to center, and Austin Martin took an ugly route that turned an out into a triple. Paredes scored another run on the play, and a Dobnak wild pitch made it 6-2 Chicago. With the game getting late, Minnesota had work to do again.

Into the Bullpen
Imanaga stymied the Twins all night. An intriguing offseason target that ultimately went to Chicago showed off just how impressive he is. Minnesota managed just a pair of hits, and struck out a whopping 10 times in seven innings. Craig Counsell turned the game over to his bullpen, and Christian Vázquez responded with relief and exuberance. He clubbed his sixth home run of the year, and the solo shot against Drew Smyly made it 6-3.

After getting the first two outs in the eighth inning, Dobnak allowed singles to Nico Hoerner, Swanson, and Pete Crow-Armstrong. That drove in another run for the Cubs and put them back up by a four-spot entering the ninth inning. Minnesota went down in order against Tyson Miller in the ninth inning; there was no comeback to be had.

Notes
Kyle Farmer is kicking off a rehab assignment with the Saints on Tuesday night. He has been out since Jul. 12. His return could put the status of Lee or Martin in question. Carlos Correa also will be an addition to the infield mix at some point.

Giovanny Gallegos was signed to a minor-league deal and assigned to St. Paul. He’s now 32 years old (almost 33) and hasn’t been good since 2022. The cash-strapped Twins are hoping they may be able to resurrect some value down the stretch; all of Gallegos's earnings above a prorated share of the MLB minimum will be covered by the Cardinals, who recently cut him.

A handful of Twins 2024 draft picks made their professional debuts on Tuesday with Low-A Fort Myers. Khadim Diaw picked up his first hit in his first plate appearance and came around to score. Caden Kendle, Billy Amick, and Kyle DeBarge all recorded their first extra-base hits.

What’s Next?
The rubber match for the Twins and Cubs in 2024 is on deck. An afternoon tilt at Wrigley Field will feature Joe Ryan against Javier Assad. It’s a big matchup for Minnesota, as they will look to ride momentum into their massive series against the Cleveland Guardians over the weekend. They've been superb in rubber matches this year.

Postgame Interviews

 

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

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[BH67]

“Ninety percent of baseball is mental. The other half is physical.”

One need look no further at what Yogi Berra meant than when Pablo Lopez allows a runner on base in a key inning of a game (the first inning tonight). It’s Mr. Hyde becoming Dr. Jekyll in a split second, with no return to the overpowering self. I'm inclined to think this is fixable, and when he gets this under control he will be lethal. The wait is agonizing.
 

[USAFChief]

4 minutes ago, BH67 said:

“Ninety percent of baseball is mental. The other half is physical.”

One need look no further at what Yogi Berra meant than when Pablo Lopez allows a runner on base in a key inning of a game (the first inning tonight). It’s Mr. Hyde becoming Dr. Jekyll in a split second, with no return to the overpowering self. I'm inclined to think this is fixable, and when he gets this under control he will be lethal. The wait is agonizing.
 

Lopez was pretty bad from the first pitch. Nothing but good swings all night off him.

Anything but overpowering, runners on or not.

 

[mikelink45]

Games like this are why I don't consider Lopez to be an ace. Right now Ober is doing our Ace act.   And poor Dobnak is filling a space, but doesn't belong here. Story and a good guy.  

Lewis is outstanding and I just wish we could get a full year of him to see what he could really do. 

We know we're going to lose so it isn't the end of the world, just would be nice to see our number one pitcher show a little more. 

[USAFChief]

Also, the Dobnak DFA can't happen soon enough. 

[Danchat]

Really a bummer to see Lopez so inconsistent. He just needs to get hot... but he's gotta do that soon.

Unfortunately it seems Martin is the guy I thought he was. Not as good at contact as some think (the Arraez comparisons he was getting at the start of the year were ridiculous), and he didn't get the proper time in the minors to hone his ability to play in the outfield. Factor in his arm and lack of power... that's not a good combo.

[Blyleven2011]

Sad we lost it in the first inning  , error and 3 run homer by cubbies deflated the twins hitters ...

Lopez was all over the place and couldn't locate his pitches  ...

Lewis just keeps making baseball fun for him , the team and the fans  ...

[jkcarew]

19 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Also, the Dobnak DFA can't happen soon enough. 

So he can clear waivers, be assigned to St. Paul…and have posters here yearning for his call up in 2025. 

It’s like groundhog’s day.

[Aerodeliria]

He’s now 32 years old (almost 33) and hasn’t been good since 2022. The cash-strapped Twins are hoping they may be able to resurrect some value....

It seems like I've read this before somewhere in the past...

[mnfireman]

At least the Red Sox held on against KC, a win tomorrow and they move ahead of KC for the last WC.

Now if Arizona can sweep Cleveland tomorrow...

[Beast]

Just stop with Margot in the lead off spot.  I get that he can hit lefties a little bit once in a while, but come on. 

[CRF]

8 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Also, the Dobnak DFA can't happen soon enough. 

At the very least...send him back to StP. He definitely shouldn't be up here. 

[William K Johnson]

Random thoughts:

- I may be in a minority but will be glad when the day comes when Santana and Margot are no longer Twins.

- Anyone still question Buxton's contract?

- Did anyone notice after the almost collision between Lee and Kepler, that Lee turned his back on him and ran off the field without a word?   Usually there is a brief conversation between players when that happens, sometimes they laugh it off.    Kepler had a strange look on his face as Lee trotted off.

- While on the subject of Lee, he apparently is dealing with some physical issues, i.e., moved from short to second after lineups posted and weak throw on the DP later in the game.

- Agree with earlier posters, consider Dodnak contract sunken cost and move on.

[TwinsDr2021]

19 minutes ago, William K Johnson said:

- Did anyone notice after the almost collision between Lee and Kepler, that Lee turned his back on him and ran off the field without a word?   Usually there is a brief conversation between players when that happens, sometimes they laugh it off.    Kepler had a strange look on his face as Lee trotted off.

I also seen this, it was very weird, I really hope it was nothing.

[HarmonK03]

27 minutes ago, William K Johnson said:

I may be in a minority but will be glad when the day comes when Santana and Margot are no longer Twins.

I agree, Santana had one good month and he is preventing Miranda from playing every day.  He needs to play against LH pitching only and as a defensive replacement.  

[Doctor Wu]

9 minutes ago, karcherd said:

I agree, Santana had one good month and he is preventing Miranda from playing every day.  He needs to play against LH pitching only and as a defensive replacement.  

I'm not so sure. I was not fully enthusiastic about the Santana signing, but he's played better than I expected. Some timely hits and good defense. Seems like a guy we will be glad to have on the team going into the playoffs. 

[Doctor Wu]

9 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Also, the Dobnak DFA can't happen soon enough. 

I was pulling for Dobnak to have a good outing or two, but I don't think he will be given that long a leash at this point. Sad, but hey, that's baseball. Time for Topa to be added. 

[Whitey333]

Buxtons contract worth it?  Not really.  Yes he's had a good year but he still doesn't play enough.  Considering you base his 100 million dollar contract on his 85 games played.  No at this point .  He needs to do this regularly for a couple of seasons.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, William K Johnson said:

Random thoughts:

- I may be in a minority but will be glad when the day comes when Santana and Margot are no longer Twins.

- Anyone still question Buxton's contract?

- Did anyone notice after the almost collision between Lee and Kepler, that Lee turned his back on him and ran off the field without a word?   Usually there is a brief conversation between players when that happens, sometimes they laugh it off.    Kepler had a strange look on his face as Lee trotted off.

- While on the subject of Lee, he apparently is dealing with some physical issues, i.e., moved from short to second after lineups posted and weak throw on the DP later in the game.

- Agree with earlier posters, consider Dodnak contract sunken cost and move on.

The Kepler/Lee play was odd……it’s the OF ball if/as he calls it - Lee exuding confidence but no exchange after seemed odd. Can’t sweat those details and I assume somebody said something in the dugout.

[Doctor Gast]

We needed Lopez to be his best against Imanaga, but unfortunately, that didn't happen. We need to do much better against CLE.

[David Maro]

On the day Lopez is starting he was more worried about having the rookies go get coffee for the team.Its time for him to worry about pitching not being the event coordinator.Then Rocco gives the game away by putting Dobnak in so the Cubs can add on and put the game out of reach.

[wabene]

3 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Buxtons contract worth it?  Not really.  Yes he's had a good year but he still doesn't play enough.  Considering you base his 100 million dollar contract on his 85 games played.  No at this point .  He needs to do this regularly for a couple of seasons.

This opinion is based on what? He is at 2.9 WAR right now. Based on Fangraphs calculations, 1 WAR costs over $8 million in the latest free agency period. At those prices Byron has already generated $24 million in value. By that measure his $15 million dollar contract looks like a bargain. At this pace he will top 4 WAR or more than twice his contract at over $32 million.

I think this valuation method produces the absolute top retail price for a player. Not many teams could afford to completely fill out their roster at these prices. It does give context to a contract like Buxton's. Look at it this way, the Twins are getting a veteran Byron Buxton at a 50% discount over retail right now.

[DJL44]

11 hours ago, BH67 said:

“Ninety percent of baseball is mental. The other half is physical.”

One need look no further at what Yogi Berra meant than when Pablo Lopez allows a runner on base in a key inning of a game (the first inning tonight). It’s Mr. Hyde becoming Dr. Jekyll in a split second, with no return to the overpowering self. I'm inclined to think this is fixable, and when he gets this under control he will be lethal. The wait is agonizing.

Many pitchers do worse pitching from the stretch than they do from the windup. In that case it isn't mental, it's mechanical.

[Jeff K]

11 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Also, the Dobnak DFA can't happen soon enough. 

I suspect he won't be in uniform today.

[bean5302]

Pablo Lopez through 8/6
2023 - 4.01 ERA, 3.38 FIP, 3.42 xFIP 
2024 - 4.74 ERA, 3.82 FIP, 3.30 xFIP

I feel pretty strongly people are misremembering Lopez's 2023 performance based on his outstanding playoff results. Similar to Jack Morris getting credit for "Game 7" despite him hardly being close to elite across his career.

Lopez is a case of "he should be better" but he's generally not. He did have an insane little run with 3 starts in a row not allowing a run 8/7-8/18 last year, but outside that and a couple games right at the start of the season, he was pretty much a 4.00 ERA guy all year.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, wabene said:

This opinion is based on what? He is at 2.9 WAR right now. Based on Fangraphs calculations, 1 WAR cost over $8 million in the latest free agency period. At those prices Byron has already generated $24 million in value. By that measure his $15 million dollar contract looks like a bargain. At this pace he will top 4 WAR or more than twice his contract at over $32 million.

I think this valuation method produces the absolute top retail price for a player. Not many teams could afford to completely fill out their roster at these prices. It does give context to a contract like Buxton's. Look at it this way, the Twins are getting a veteran Byron Buxton at a 50% discount over retail right now.

I find Buxton's contract and production to be pretty difficult to quantify. In terms of raw production, I think Buxton's contract is worth it on a year to year basis comparing it to "free agency" value. But, Buxton wasn't a free agent, and teams pay more like $2.5MM/WAR on average because of cost controlled players. Furthermore, the $8MM per WAR value is what teams actually get, not what they try to pay. It seems to me teams try to buy WAR at $6MM, but players often underperform expectations due to injury or decline. The resulting net cost winds up being $8MM.

I don't believe for a single second any team in baseball would have given Buxton north of 3 years had he hit free agency after the 2021 season, and the inability of the Twins to find a trade partner when they were trying to move him in 2021 should have made it more clear how the rest of the league valued him. In that regard, I think the Twins overpaid market value by a country mile. After 2022's 3.5 fWAR season, again hampered by a half season on the IL, I doubt Buxton could have gotten more than 2 years at $40MM.

Buxton should always be backed up by an MLB caliber starting center fielder because expecting more than about 80 games a year out of him is unreasonable. In a full year, which will 100% never happen, Buxton is a 5-6 WAR player. Perennial All Star Caliber. He's never going to win an MVP or come close to it because he can't get on base, but his fielding and power more than make up for that, in the half season where he's healthy.

I thought the Buxton extension reeked of panic by the front office, and I still think it was a panic button decision. It was a bad decision overall, but the impact wasn't felt until the Pohlad's decided to reverse course on their commitment to the team and process.

[TwinsAce]

3 hours ago, David Maro said:

On the day Lopez is starting he was more worried about having the rookies go get coffee for the team.Its time for him to worry about pitching not being the event coordinator.Then Rocco gives the game away by putting Dobnak in so the Cubs can add on and put the game out of reach.

Looking at the bullpen chart and also the expected return of Topa, I think the Twins had two hopes for the game last night.  Either Lopez deals a gem and pitches 6-7 innings of amazing ball or they can use Dobnak to soak up all of the innings in a losing effort.  If Lopez does a gem, then you look at Sands for 7th and Jax/Duran for 8th and 9th.  (And by doing so, you no longer have them available for Thursday.)  Winder and Dobnak will be going back shortly (if it hasn't already been announced already).  Hopefully the bullpen is better setup now for Friday's double header against Cleveland.

[Aggies7]

I don’t like how poorly this team/organization is coached. It shows on a regular basis, even the games we win, we often play sloppily.

This series alone, we had a guy not know how many outs there were, which 100% cost a late inning run in a then 2 run game. And last night our center fielder totally misplays the ball (playing out of position) and our veteran right fielder did not even attempt to back up said poor fielder. Allows the runner to move to third base and he scored immediately on a wild pitch.

There are reasons the twins are 3-17 against the top 5 teams in baseball. Being poorly coached as an organization is a problem. The amount of free bases we given opponents is going to be a huge problem come playoff time. The team has been awful at holding runners on. How many times we do we not even attempt a throw?

The best teams excel at the basics, always have. I have to believe this is an organizational problem, and it hasn’t been acceptable for some time now.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I find Buxton's contract and production to be pretty difficult to quantify. In terms of raw production, I think Buxton's contract is worth it on a year to year basis comparing it to "free agency" value. But, Buxton wasn't a free agent, and teams pay more like $2.5MM/WAR on average because of cost controlled players. Furthermore, the $8MM per WAR value is what teams actually get, not what they try to pay. It seems to me teams try to buy WAR at $6MM, but players often underperform expectations due to injury or decline. The resulting net cost winds up being $8MM.

I don't believe for a single second any team in baseball would have given Buxton north of 3 years had he hit free agency after the 2021 season, and the inability of the Twins to find a trade partner when they were trying to move him in 2021 should have made it more clear how the rest of the league valued him. In that regard, I think the Twins overpaid market value by a country mile. After 2022's 3.5 fWAR season, again hampered by a half season on the IL, I doubt Buxton could have gotten more than 2 years at $40MM.

Buxton should always be backed up by an MLB caliber starting center fielder because expecting more than about 80 games a year out of him is unreasonable. In a full year, which will 100% never happen, Buxton is a 5-6 WAR player. Perennial All Star Caliber. He's never going to win an MVP or come close to it because he can't get on base, but his fielding and power more than make up for that, in the half season where he's healthy.

I thought the Buxton extension reeked of panic by the front office, and I still think it was a panic button decision. It was a bad decision overall, but the impact wasn't felt until the Pohlad's decided to reverse course on their commitment to the team and process.

I was about to write something very similar about cost of WAR, but you beat me to it.  I can't argue with the cost of $8M/WAR in free agency, but as you said, many players still under team control also generate WAR at a much lower cost.  So, yes, going out and duplicating it in free agency would indeed cost a lot, but finding ways to generate it more inexpensively are also possible. 

As to Buxton's contract, believe it or not, I think the Twins got the numbers about right.  He will likely generate that in WAR value in years where he's more or less healthy. They did a good job of insulating the team from a huge and terrible contract while still letting Buxton cash in on his upside if he can have such a season.  Some years he may fall short (2023), but others may go well (2024).  He's still tantalizing and frustrating at the same time.

[BH67]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Many pitchers do worse pitching from the stretch than they do from the windup. In that case it isn't mental, it's mechanical.

Interesting. That's worth looking at in his next start. I think there's a mental block indeed, but a mechanical issue as you describe may be contributing to it.