Final: Cubs 7, Twins 3: Home Run Bug Bites Pablo López Again, Cubs Cruise

Really a bummer to see Lopez so inconsistent. He just needs to get hot... but he's gotta do that soon.

Unfortunately it seems Martin is the guy I thought he was. Not as good at contact as some think (the Arraez comparisons he was getting at the start of the year were ridiculous), and he didn't get the proper time in the minors to hone his ability to play in the outfield. Factor in his arm and lack of power... that's not a good combo.

Random thoughts:

- I may be in a minority but will be glad when the day comes when Santana and Margot are no longer Twins.

- Anyone still question Buxton's contract?

- Did anyone notice after the almost collision between Lee and Kepler, that Lee turned his back on him and ran off the field without a word?   Usually there is a brief conversation between players when that happens, sometimes they laugh it off.    Kepler had a strange look on his face as Lee trotted off.

- While on the subject of Lee, he apparently is dealing with some physical issues, i.e., moved from short to second after lineups posted and weak throw on the DP later in the game.

- Agree with earlier posters, consider Dodnak contract sunken cost and move on.

Pablo Lopez through 8/6
2023 - 4.01 ERA, 3.38 FIP, 3.42 xFIP 
2024 - 4.74 ERA, 3.82 FIP, 3.30 xFIP

I feel pretty strongly people are misremembering Lopez's 2023 performance based on his outstanding playoff results. Similar to Jack Morris getting credit for "Game 7" despite him hardly being close to elite across his career.

Lopez is a case of "he should be better" but he's generally not. He did have an insane little run with 3 starts in a row not allowing a run 8/7-8/18 last year, but outside that and a couple games right at the start of the season, he was pretty much a 4.00 ERA guy all year.

1 hour ago, wabene said:

This opinion is based on what? He is at 2.9 WAR right now. Based on Fangraphs calculations, 1 WAR cost over $8 million in the latest free agency period. At those prices Byron has already generated $24 million in value. By that measure his $15 million dollar contract looks like a bargain. At this pace he will top 4 WAR or more than twice his contract at over $32 million.

I think this valuation method produces the absolute top retail price for a player. Not many teams could afford to completely fill out their roster at these prices. It does give context to a contract like Buxton's. Look at it this way, the Twins are getting a veteran Byron Buxton at a 50% discount over retail right now.

I find Buxton's contract and production to be pretty difficult to quantify. In terms of raw production, I think Buxton's contract is worth it on a year to year basis comparing it to "free agency" value. But, Buxton wasn't a free agent, and teams pay more like $2.5MM/WAR on average because of cost controlled players. Furthermore, the $8MM per WAR value is what teams actually get, not what they try to pay. It seems to me teams try to buy WAR at $6MM, but players often underperform expectations due to injury or decline. The resulting net cost winds up being $8MM.

I don't believe for a single second any team in baseball would have given Buxton north of 3 years had he hit free agency after the 2021 season, and the inability of the Twins to find a trade partner when they were trying to move him in 2021 should have made it more clear how the rest of the league valued him. In that regard, I think the Twins overpaid market value by a country mile. After 2022's 3.5 fWAR season, again hampered by a half season on the IL, I doubt Buxton could have gotten more than 2 years at $40MM.

Buxton should always be backed up by an MLB caliber starting center fielder because expecting more than about 80 games a year out of him is unreasonable. In a full year, which will 100% never happen, Buxton is a 5-6 WAR player. Perennial All Star Caliber. He's never going to win an MVP or come close to it because he can't get on base, but his fielding and power more than make up for that, in the half season where he's healthy.

I thought the Buxton extension reeked of panic by the front office, and I still think it was a panic button decision. It was a bad decision overall, but the impact wasn't felt until the Pohlad's decided to reverse course on their commitment to the team and process.

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I find Buxton's contract and production to be pretty difficult to quantify. In terms of raw production, I think Buxton's contract is worth it on a year to year basis comparing it to "free agency" value. But, Buxton wasn't a free agent, and teams pay more like $2.5MM/WAR on average because of cost controlled players. Furthermore, the $8MM per WAR value is what teams actually get, not what they try to pay. It seems to me teams try to buy WAR at $6MM, but players often underperform expectations due to injury or decline. The resulting net cost winds up being $8MM.

I don't believe for a single second any team in baseball would have given Buxton north of 3 years had he hit free agency after the 2021 season, and the inability of the Twins to find a trade partner when they were trying to move him in 2021 should have made it more clear how the rest of the league valued him. In that regard, I think the Twins overpaid market value by a country mile. After 2022's 3.5 fWAR season, again hampered by a half season on the IL, I doubt Buxton could have gotten more than 2 years at $40MM.

Buxton should always be backed up by an MLB caliber starting center fielder because expecting more than about 80 games a year out of him is unreasonable. In a full year, which will 100% never happen, Buxton is a 5-6 WAR player. Perennial All Star Caliber. He's never going to win an MVP or come close to it because he can't get on base, but his fielding and power more than make up for that, in the half season where he's healthy.

I thought the Buxton extension reeked of panic by the front office, and I still think it was a panic button decision. It was a bad decision overall, but the impact wasn't felt until the Pohlad's decided to reverse course on their commitment to the team and process.

I was about to write something very similar about cost of WAR, but you beat me to it.  I can't argue with the cost of $8M/WAR in free agency, but as you said, many players still under team control also generate WAR at a much lower cost.  So, yes, going out and duplicating it in free agency would indeed cost a lot, but finding ways to generate it more inexpensively are also possible. 

As to Buxton's contract, believe it or not, I think the Twins got the numbers about right.  He will likely generate that in WAR value in years where he's more or less healthy. They did a good job of insulating the team from a huge and terrible contract while still letting Buxton cash in on his upside if he can have such a season.  Some years he may fall short (2023), but others may go well (2024).  He's still tantalizing and frustrating at the same time.

1 hour ago, Aggies7 said:

...There are reasons the twins are 3-17 against the top 5 teams in baseball...

The Twins haven't played any of those teams recently, except the Phillies, who were the best team in baseball before the Twins took the series and pushed them to the brink of a sweep.

Meanwhile, the Twins have beaten the teams who've been the best in MLB since June 1st on a regular basis, and in fact, the TWINS are the 5th best team in the MLB since 6/1 (31-23).
Min (2-1) vs. Ari #1 (35-20) .636
Min (1-2) vs. NYM #2 (35-20) .636
Min (3-2) vs. Hou #3 (32-22) .593 
Min (2-1) vs. Bos* #4 (31-22) .585
Minnesota Twins #5 (31-23) .574

The Twins haven't played Boston since June 1 so I included their earlier series result.