Matt Wallner Is Obliterating Baseballs

[Nick Nelson]

Those baseballs have families. Do you even think about that, Matthew? 

Image courtesy of Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

On Wednesday, Matt Wallner did the damn thing again: he launched a 108-MPH drive to right-center and watched it sail 442 feet for his sixth home run this season (25th if we're counting Triple-A). That's a dazzling distance, and yet, when you watch the replay of Wallner's swing, it doesn't even seem like he hit the ball quite flush. He reached out and got the end of his bat on Luis Severino's tailing changeup, still managing to muscle it out with ease. 

What we're seeing should not be taken for granted. This is not normal. Wallner is literally hitting the ball as hard as anybody in the major leagues, and that includes the most famed and acclaimed bashers of this generation. 

Don't believe me? Let's just take a look at the stats. They're unbelievable. Wallner does not have enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, having spent almost three months in the minors, but if he did, here's where he'd rank on the MLB leaderboard for three of the main Statcast measures of contact quality.

AVERAGE EXIT VELOCITY

1. Aaron Judge: 96.0 mph
2. Matt Wallner: 95.9 mph
3. Shohei Ohtani: 95.8 mph
4. Oneil Cruz: 95.3 mph
5. Juan Soto: 94.6 mph

HARD HIT PERCENTAGE

1. Matt Wallner: 61.8%
2. Shohei Ohtani: 60.2%
3. Aaron Judge: 60.2%
4. Juan Soto: 57.8%
5. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 56.5%

BARREL RATE

1. Matt Wallner: 29.4%
2. Aaron Judge: 27.5%
3. Shohei Ohtani: 20.5%
4. Juan Soto: 19.7%
5. Giancarlo Stanton: 19.1%

Now, the big caveat here is that Wallner strikes out WAY more than anyone on this list. Only Cruz (33%) and Stanton (31%) are even in his stratosphere, but not really -- Wallner has struck out in a whopping 43% of his plate appearances this year. He still has managed to produce a .990 OPS, which leads the Twins and is 73% better than the average big-leaguer. Now, there's partially some good batted-ball luck at play (he won't maintain a .429 BABIP), but also, it's what quality contact will do for you.

One measurement that was recently added to Statcast's public metrics serves to help explain why Wallner punishes the ball so much when he gets wood on it. Bat tracking data tells us that Wallner swings the stick at 77.6 MPH on average, which -- if qualified -- would rank third in the majors, behind Stanton and Cruz, ahead of Kyle Schwarber and Judge.

I suppose one could reasonably ask if Wallner should continue to swing this ferociously hard. There's certainly no reason to change anything at the moment, but if production dries up and his extreme proneness to strikeouts sends him into another slump, the idea of dialing back slightly could gain merit. The slugger could theoretically afford to take a little off, given that he's registering legitimate MVP-level contact results right now. 

The other scenario is that he keeps hitting the ball this hard and manages to rein the strikeouts back to a semi-reasonable level. In that case, we might need to start rethinking how we talk about his ceiling as a difference-maker for this franchise. 

For the time being, I'm just going to sit back and enjoy the show. I'm a sucker for players who have visibly elite skills, and Wallner's ability to crush the ball is verifiably elite. I'm loving it; I'd probably love it less if I was an infielder who had to stand anywhere near him, or a family member to one of those poor baseballs.

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[Colbeh]

Imagine breaking into Wallner's house and he's just standing there with a bat.

[Sean.h]

FWIW, Matt's K-rate is down to 37 percent since being called up, compared to 46 percent before being sent down to the minors.

[Karbo]

He has earned the nickname of Minnesota Moose. Who knows what the future holds but odds are in his favor with how hard he hits the ball. The biggest question to me is how he responds to the next slump (and there will be one).

[Whitey333]

Let's see how Wallner does over the long haul.  Too small of a sample size but yes he's doing well and we are pulling for him!

[MinnInPa]

35 minutes ago, Sean.h said:

FWIW, Matt's K-rate is down to 37 percent since being called up, compared to 46 percent before being sent down to the minors.

in last 15 games he is still K-ing .. 19 times in 44 ab'S...  YES,the avg is very good ..but we already have enough KKings inthe lineup ..we needs guys King under 20%..then we'll have a ball team

[TwinsDr2021]

If Wallner is going to hit .261 and get on base at or above .375, I don't care how many times he strikes out. Because with those numbers he is probably being productive though out the game, If he is hitting .200 and getting on base under .300 (like all of our favorite player Gallo /s) then I don't want anything to do with that type of player because when it really matters they are probably not coming though.

[Patzky]

He's fun to watch. Bailey Ober and Jhoan Duran, fun to watch. Byron Buxton is fun to watch. 

 

That's what puts fannies in seats.

[Jeff K]

Nice article.  I'm especially happy to see Wallner hammering off-speed pitches which were killing him before he was sent down.

[mikelink45]

It is exciting to have a MN player from MN doing what he is doing - shades of Killebrew

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, Sean.h said:

FWIW, Matt's K-rate is down to 37 percent since being called up, compared to 46 percent before being sent down to the minors.

Thanks Sean, That's what I was going to say but w/o the stats to back it.

[Doctor Gast]

I love what Wallner is doing. He's hitting the off-speed pitches & his fielding is improving. Wallner is strong, he's doing what Sano could not, Adapt. Hope Julien can do the same.

[Dman]

As horrified as I am with his K rate I do love watching his majestic HR's.  I just don't see a world where he maintains a .400 BABIP though so his numbers are likely to trend down after this hot streak.  No one in major league baseball has survived a 40% K rate that I am aware of so he is in dangerous territory Still I am hopeful that he continues to perform well (i.e get K rate down) as I do love watching those HR's.

[DJL44]

If his chase rate can get to league average, he'll be fine. I'm fine with some swing and miss in the zone if it comes with huge power when he connects. Only a few players (Vlad Guerrero) can connect for power with pitches outside of the strike zone.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

9 minutes ago, Dman said:

As horrified as I am with his K rate I do love watching his majestic HR's.  I just don't see a world where he maintains a .400 BABIP though so his numbers are likely to trend down after this hot streak.  No one in major league baseball has survived a 40% K rate that I am ware of so he is in dangerous territory Still I am hopeful that he continues to perform well (i.e get K rate down) as I do love watching those HR's.

Joey Gallo has earned over $38,000,000 but his SO percentage is "only" 38%.

[h2oface]

K rate down to 37%...... and that is supposed to be promising?

 .429 BABIP means that things are bound to get a lot worse. Especially coupled with a K rate that is still really really horrible. We will see. I hope not.

[nicksaviking]

4 hours ago, MinnInPa said:

in last 15 games he is still K-ing .. 19 times in 44 ab'S...  YES,the avg is very good ..but we already have enough KKings inthe lineup ..we needs guys King under 20%..then we'll have a ball team

No, they don't. That was the big issue last year, but they largely rectified that matter. Even Buxton's K% is under 30% now. As a team, the Twins are tenth in the league in strikeouts this year averaging a very good 21.1%.

Presuming their power evened it out, I figured the team could afford two regulars who whiffed over 30%, maybe three if they were spaced out in the lineup. With Julien off the roster, they only have one such player. It would be great if Wallner could reign in the strikeouts a bit more, but at this time, it's not a problem, so rip away big guy.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, MinnInPa said:

in last 15 games he is still K-ing .. 19 times in 44 ab'S...  YES,the avg is very good ..but we already have enough KKings inthe lineup ..we needs guys King under 20%..then we'll have a ball team

While I get the sentiment - not many guys striking out under 20% of the time that hit HR’s at an above average rate - actually, none.

The suggestion of not swinging “full out” to reduce strikeouts has some merit but even “approaching” 20% would stifle Wallner’s value!

The logical move is to do what you do……until you get to 2 strikes……then a player needs to dial it back in 80-90% of the situations. It’s nothing that’s not 130 years old…… “shorten up” and “put the ball in play” and “fight off pitches” …….all 2 strike adages still hold up & could/should help Wallner be even more effective and reduce his K’s (my target is 30%) to a reasonable level.

[LambchoP]

As long as the rest of the team, especially our stars, aren't striking out a ton, then we can deal with a higher K rate from Wallner. If it comes with HR power. Still would like to see him continue to develop and get his K rate down below 30%. If he can stay healthy, keep his strikeouts manageable, he has 30 HR type power, plus a cannon of an arm. He'll most likely be our starting right fielder next year, so hopefully he can put a whole season together for the first time. I think we'll need to look at a FA for the left field job, but that's a problem for the off-season.

[NYCTK]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

If Wallner is going to hit .261 and get on base at or above .375, I don't care how many times he strikes out. Because with those numbers he is probably being productive though out the game, If he is hitting .200 and getting on base under .300 (like all of our favorite player Gallo /s) then I don't want anything to do with that type of player because when it really matters they are probably not coming though.

Agreed, but unfortunately he's not going to be able to sustain .260/.375. He'd need a BABIP of near .400 in order for that to work out, which isn't going to happen. Happy to see him on a hot streak but we should expect him to look more like Mark Reynolds than Aaron Judge.

Even now during a hot streak his K-rate is 37%. This doesn't bode well and I wouldn't enter 2025 expecting him to produce enough to get 500 PAs. 

[NYCTK]

57 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

While I get the sentiment - not many guys striking out under 20% of the time that hit HR’s at an above average rate - actually, none.

The suggestion of not swinging “full out” to reduce strikeouts has some merit but even “approaching” 20% would stifle Wallner’s value!

The logical move is to do what you do……until you get to 2 strikes……then a player needs to dial it back in 80-90% of the situations. It’s nothing that’s not 130 years old…… “shorten up” and “put the ball in play” and “fight off pitches” …….all 2 strike adages still hold up & could/should help Wallner be even more effective and reduce his K’s (my target is 30%) to a reasonable level.

That's just not even close to true. There's plenty of HR hitters with good K rates. 

Juan Soto, Anthony Santander, Jose Ramirez, Yordan Alvarez, et al.

I get what you're saying, and they shouldn't try to change Wallner as a hitter but rather refine his skillset. But there are plenty of big power guys with good contact. 

[Mike Sixel]

14 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

That's just not even close to true. There's plenty of HR hitters with good K rates. 

Juan Soto, Anthony Santander, Jose Ramirez, Yordan Alvarez, et al.

I get what you're saying, and they shouldn't try to change Wallner as a hitter but rather refine his skillset. But there are plenty of big power guys with good contact. 

You just listed superstar players as examples. I don't think anyone thanks that's typical. 

Wallner is a good player. That's enough for me.

[NYCTK]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

You just listed superstar players as examples. I don't think anyone thanks that's typical. 

Wallner is a good player. That's rough for me.

I can list off another dozen if you'd like. And they tend to be superstars because its difficult, yes. But lets not pretend there are literally no players capable of both limiting strikeouts and hitting dingers. But I don't expect Wallner to be able to slash his Ks in half, so it's kind of irrelevant anyways. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

8 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Agreed, but unfortunately he's not going to be able to sustain .260/.375. He'd need a BABIP of near .400 in order for that to work out, which isn't going to happen. Happy to see him on a hot streak but we should expect him to look more like Mark Reynolds than Aaron Judge.

Even now during a hot streak his K-rate is 37%. This doesn't bode well and I wouldn't enter 2025 expecting him to produce enough to get 500 PAs. 

Does anyone have accurate stats on his K rate pre and post demotion? I did a quick calculation based on the stats I saw and saw 17ks in 29 PAs (58.6%) before demotion, and 19 SOs in 49PAs (38.7%) since his recall. The post recall % is still too high but at least it's better. 

The key with Wallner is whether he can get his K rate down to 25-28% and still hit .250 plus with the same power. The jury is still very much out on that. We should play him basically every day, including against LH pitching, for the rest of the season. Let's see if he can be a full time #4 or #5 hitter going forward hitting after Lewis. You can't find that out unless you give it a long term try.    

[NYCTK]

17 Ks in 33 PAs prior to demotion = 51.5% 

19Ks in 51 PAs after promotion = 37.2%

[NYCTK]

To be completely honest, he will almost certainly never be an everyday player for an entire season on a good team. His skillset is limited and he can be a good contributor on a good team in smaller capacity. I really hope the Twins don't think he's the every day RF in 2025. 

[Shaitan]

How hard a player hits the ball is a useful stat...to a point. But all HR count for the same amount of runs. I wish they didn't ooh and ah every time over it on tv/radio.

 

[mickster]

9 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

To be completely honest, he will almost certainly never be an everyday player for an entire season on a good team. His skillset is limited and he can be a good contributor on a good team in smaller capacity. I really hope the Twins don't think he's the every day RF in 2025. 

I think that is exactly what the Twins are planning for.   Larnach, Buxton, Wallner w/Castro as the 4th/utility and possibly Martin unless they send him packing in the offseason.

[jmlease1]

18 minutes ago, Shaitan said:

How hard a player hits the ball is a useful stat...to a point. But all HR count for the same amount of runs. I wish they didn't ooh and ah every time over it on tv/radio.

 

well, sort of. if every HR was a solo shot.

those 2 and 3-run HRs certainly increase your run-scoring efficiency. even the solo shot does it efficiently.

but the harder guys hit the ball the more likely it's going to go for a hit.

Wallner is doing great. even with some regression he's still going to be a very valuable player and hitter.  Yes, he's going to K a lot and it's going be frustrating at times. But he's also going to punish pitchers who try to groove one to get a strike and ways that other hitters can't.

[NYCTK]

1 minute ago, mickster said:

I think that is exactly what the Twins are planning for.   Larnach, Buxton, Wallner w/Castro as the 4th/utility and possibly Martin unless they send him packing in the offseason.

And this is why I was in favor of the Twins going for it this season. This is not a great outfield. With both of them they'd grade out as a bad defensively and slow, even if Buxton remains healthy like this season. The Twins have an exciting infield obviously but that OF is very much held together with duct tape. 

Martin (and Larnach tbh) is another in a long list of examples why you shouldn't instinctively be afraid to trade Top 100 prospects...