Matt Wallner Is Obliterating Baseballs

[chpettit19]

21 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

You don't have to preach to me about Margot. I've wanted to DFA since March 29th. 

But you seem to be just misunderstanding my point. Yes, a 0 WAR player is not something anyone's looking for, but Gunnar clearly isn't that. I'm going off the previously established fact that he "struggled" against lefties, but A) his struggles were far less severe than Matt's to the point he was STILL replacement level at that production and B) Gunnar is a very skilled all-around ballplayer with all the evidence in the world that he would improve. 

No team trying to be competitive would allow Matt to hit against lefties if at all avoidable. 

What was that evidence? What was the evidence he'd improve against lefties? His OPS against lefties in 2021 (year before he debuted) was .642. He played 8 games in AA that season, so that stat line is from A and A+ ball. In 2019 he had a .641 OPS against them in rookie ball. In 2022, when he debut, he had a .670 OPS against them in the minors. I already provided his early MLB career numbers. 

Wallner in rookie ball had a .789 OPS against lefties. In A+ he had a .678 OPS. In AA and AAA the year he debuted he had a .911 OPS against them. The Twins gave him 18 PAs against them in the majors that year. In bouncing back and forth last year he had an .848 OPS against lefties in AAA. The Twins gave him 46 PAs against them in the majors last year. 

What about Gunnar's numbers vs Wallner's numbers say Gunnar had "all the evidence in the world that he would improve" but Wallner is so clearly doomed?

[arby58]

3 hours ago, RpR said:

How, have Santana rub Ben Gay on his joints so he is not so stiff?

Santana is a big guy and isn't exactly gazelle-like. My guess is there is a lot Santana can teach him about playing the position.

[NYCTK]

28 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

What was that evidence? What was the evidence he'd improve against lefties? His OPS against lefties in 2021 (year before he debuted) was .642. He played 8 games in AA that season, so that stat line is from A and A+ ball. In 2019 he had a .641 OPS against them in rookie ball. In 2022, when he debut, he had a .670 OPS against them in the minors. I already provided his early MLB career numbers. 

Wallner in rookie ball had a .789 OPS against lefties. In A+ he had a .678 OPS. In AA and AAA the year he debuted he had a .911 OPS against them. The Twins gave him 18 PAs against them in the majors that year. In bouncing back and forth last year he had an .848 OPS against lefties in AAA. The Twins gave him 46 PAs against them in the majors last year. 

What about Gunnar's numbers vs Wallner's numbers say Gunnar had "all the evidence in the world that he would improve" but Wallner is so clearly doomed?

Gunnar is/was good and is/was young. That's the evidence. Wallner isn't near the prospect and is much much older. Hoping an older player suddenly figures it out isn't exactly a good plan. 

[RpR]

13 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Santana is a big guy and isn't exactly gazelle-like. My guess is there is a lot Santana can teach him about playing the position.

Santana is a ballet dancer compared to Wallner.

[chpettit19]

28 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Gunnar is/was good and is/was young. That's the evidence. Wallner isn't near the prospect and is much much older. Hoping an older player suddenly figures it out isn't exactly a good plan. 

He had figured it out, that's the point. Or is the argument that AA and AAA numbers shouldn't mean anything? He mashed lefties in the upper minors when he was given consistent at bats against them. Gunnar didn't. But when Gunnar got to the bigs the O's let him keep facing them and he improved. The Twins did the opposite and Wallner struggled in completely useless small sample sizes over 3 seasons.

Matt was good, too. Suggesting he wasn't is nonsense. I've already provided multiple players who also didn't debut until they were 24. You make it sound like he was just some minor league journeyman who debuted at age 30 as a cute story. Wallner is 3 years older than Gunnar. You're trying to make it sound like he's 35 years old or something. 3 years is "much much older?" Come on. Wallner was the 39th overall pick in the draft. He was actually taken 3 picks before Gunnar. He dominated the minors, including against lefties. He owns a career 140 OPS+ in the majors. This isn't just some random hitter who's come out of nowhere to have a little success.

We've taken over this thread a bit, though, so I'll just say thanks for the back and forth and I'll just have to agree to disagree with you.

[Fatbat]

Too bad his 25 HR’s this season weren’t all in MLB. Once he gets there. He will be the real deal. 

[NYCTK]

Good chat. And as a button I just want to add my "hatred" of Wallner is just criticism. I like him. I like to see him at bat in the 6th inning with a runner on. I just think his weaknesses mean he's never going to be an everyday player. 400 PAs is still a lot to give to a player! He's good, just not someone any team will ever give more than a two year contract to. 

 

24 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

We've taken over this thread a bit, though, so I'll just say thanks for the back and forth and I'll just have to agree to disagree with you.

[DocBauer]

6 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I didn't say Wallner was Gunnar, I used Gunnar as evidence that a slow start against lefties doesn't mean you're doomed to always be bad against lefties, but you can't show you can hit them if you're never given the chance.

And Aaron Judge didn't debut until he was 24, and put up a .608 OPS in 27 games that year. I know you love your ages, but they aren't the end all be all. That Judge guy (who's name shows up in this article next to Wallner's a bunch) has turned out alright. And I'm not now saying Wallner is Judge, but debut age isn't always the determining factor on how good somebody can be. Josh Donaldson didn't debut until 24. Didn't play a single major league game his age 25 season. Only played 75 games his age 26 season. Then finished 4th in MVP his age 27 season. And won the MVP his age 29 season. Ended up with 3 top 4 MVP finishes. It happens.

Sorry, didn't want to disrupt the debate you are having, but just felt the need to point out that All Star and Twins favorite Nelson Cruz didn't BECOME NELSON CRUZ until 2009 at the age of 28. I'm on your side. Please carry on

 

[DocBauer]

9 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I don't understand how you connect Wallner and Larnach as similar except they're both lefties and typically play corner OF.

Larnach is a line drive hitter with average pop, but poor OBP. He has obvious glaring weaknesses against almost anything other than a 4 seamer, but he destroys 4 seamers. He's slow, has a weak arm, but great baseball instincts that keep him from being unplayable in the outfield.

Wallner is a fly ball hitter with elite power and good OBP. He's not weak against any pitches, but he doesn't excel against any, either. He's pretty fast, has a cannon arm, but poor baseball instincts which is the only thing keeping him from being an elite fielder. 

Larnach is a backup corner OF or a starter on a team with some injury issues or that is not trying to compete. Wallner is a potential All Star. They're just not similar.

I wanted to "like" your post but couldn't quite do it. 

Larnach and Wallner are NOT Kepler in the OF, and never will be. Granted. But I think you underate both defensively. Larnach has looked pretty solid in LF, and Wallner has improved a lot in his routes. He clearly has room to improve. Both are large men, but they move pretty well when they get moving, especially Wallner. And Larnach actually has a pretty good arm, though not in the Wallner class, which is elite.

Larnach has opposite field power few lack. And he may never develop the pull power we are all hoping for. But he's made MAJOR strides this season to indicate he MIGHT be about ready to be a 20HR and 30DBL hitter. Maybe not. But I'm seeing improvement. 

I am HOPING Wallner can be a .260/.340 hitter with his tremendous power and a 30% K rate. I'd settle for .250/.320. He has a CHANCE to be an All Star kind of performer. But if he's just very good, I'm OK with that.

While I know the OF defense will suffer without Kepler next year, I don't think it dooms the 2025 defense. Wallner has the arm for RF...Larnach's isn't bad either...and if he can continue to improve his routs we'll be OK. But I think Larnach is better defensively than you give him credit for.

I would LOVE the Twins to find a RH OF who could smash LH pitching for 2025 who could ALSO hit RH pitching decently to deepen the roster, but that's a different arguement 

 

[Road trip]

11 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Sorry, didn't want to disrupt the debate you are having, but just felt the need to point out that All Star and Twins favorite Nelson Cruz didn't BECOME NELSON CRUZ until 2009 at the age of 28. I'm on your side. Please carry on

 

Lots of late-blooming sluggers out there.  Not even sure Wallner would qualify as late-blooming since he has hit the ball pretty well ever since arriving, minus a few adjustment periods.  Beyond Nelson Cruz, you could also list Jose Bautista and Josh Willingham as recent examples.  From my younger days I'd note Brian Downing and George Foster.  The all timer, of course, was that Ortiz guy who played for Boston (I'd like to forget about the fact that he was released by.... someone).

Give Wallner 1000 at bats and then we can judge what he may become.  He's an outlier to be sure, but if he maintains anything like his current career OPS+ he is not only a starter, but a star.

[Linus]

As always you don’t know what you have in a hitter, good or bad, until they have 1000-1500 at bats. I don’t care much about his strikeouts when he has that kind of power. It’s the meh hitters who strike out that cripple the lineup. I also think if you put him in right field he will get smoother and his arm will be a weapon. This will be especially true in the smaller right field at Target Field. 

[RpR]

3 hours ago, Linus said:

As always you don’t know what you have in a hitter, good or bad, until they have 1000-1500 at bats. I don’t care much about his strikeouts when he has that kind of power. It’s the meh hitters who strike out that cripple the lineup. I also think if you put him in right field he will get smoother and his arm will be a weapon. This will be especially true in the smaller right field at Target Field. 

Joey Gallo II.

[TwinsDr2021]

On 8/2/2024 at 4:24 PM, chpettit19 said:

My concern is the Twins are going to treat Jenkins the same way as all their other lefties when he gets here. Do you think they'll let him play everyday against lefties if he's up at the age of 21 like the Orioles did with Gunnar, and have done with their other guys who are closer to Wallner's debut age? I don't.

If they don't they all should be fired instantly and without hesitation. You don't pigeon hole guys like, Like what they what they are doing with Wallner and Larnach or not, these isn't the first time it is being done and the Twins aren't the only organization to do or doing it.

[TwinsDr2021]

On 8/3/2024 at 9:57 AM, Road trip said:

Lots of late-blooming sluggers out there.  Not even sure Wallner would qualify as late-blooming since he has hit the ball pretty well ever since arriving, minus a few adjustment periods.  Beyond Nelson Cruz, you could also list Jose Bautista and Josh Willingham as recent examples.  From my younger days I'd note Brian Downing and George Foster.  The all timer, of course, was that Ortiz guy who played for Boston (I'd like to forget about the fact that he was released by.... someone).

Give Wallner 1000 at bats and then we can judge what he may become.  He's an outlier to be sure, but if he maintains anything like his current career OPS+ he is not only a starter, but a star.

Not really sure what you are trying to say, but George Foster got his first shot in the majors at age 20, full time player by age 22, Jose Bautista got his first shot at age 23, Downing at age 22. They may have developed power later, but it must have been obvious they had skills very earlier in their career. Not sure why Cruz didn't start his baseball career until age 20 (Rookie) league but he certainly had power almost from the get go, He hit 156 career minor league homers and was in AAA in 3 seasons.

But Wallner isn't a late blooming slugger he has be slugging since he was a 19 year old at Southern Mississippi,  and it isn't like he spent years in the minors trying to figure it out (He has been hitting homers and striking out in the whole time in the minors), This is more about hitting left handed pitchers or his ability to hit left handed pitchers or if the Twins will give him the chance.

I have my reservations about him every hitting left handers well enough to just say left field is your for 145+ games, but I didn't think Rooker could ever be a full-time player.

[jkcarew]

In summary:

Wallner swings really really hard, which makes the ball go fast and far when contact happens. Contact frequently doesn’t happen. Pretty much exactly like Sano in his early years.

Will longer term results be different? Too early to tell, IMO.

[RpR]

6 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

In summary:

Wallner swings really really hard, which makes the ball go fast and far when contact happens. Contact frequently doesn’t happen. Pretty much exactly like Sano in his early years.

Will longer term results be different? Too early to tell, IMO.

Look at Gallo's early years, except he was a Golden Glove fielder,  I would put Wallner in that category without the GG but better than Sano.

[jkcarew]

2 hours ago, RpR said:

Look at Gallo's early years, except he was a Golden Glove fielder,  I would put Wallner in that category without the GG but better than Sano.

Yes…has some defensive and baserunning value it seems. We can also hope Wallner is a better student of the craft than was Sano in terms of adjustments and understanding what pitchers are trying to do with him, etc

[Road trip]

On 8/5/2024 at 7:17 AM, TwinsDr2021 said:

Not really sure what you are trying to say, but George Foster got his first shot in the majors at age 20, full time player by age 22, Jose Bautista got his first shot at age 23, Downing at age 22. They may have developed power later, but it must have been obvious they had skills very earlier in their career. Not sure why Cruz didn't start his baseball career until age 20 (Rookie) league but he certainly had power almost from the get go, He hit 156 career minor league homers and was in AAA in 3 seasons.

 

Perhaps it wasn't clear, but I was arguing against the point that Wallner is already too old to be considered a prospect who will develop further by providing a sample of players who did exactly that...

And yes, Foster, Bautista, and Downing were in the majors earlier...but were slow developers.

Foster flubbed his first chance to be a starter and spent nearly his entire age 24 season in AAA... was replacement level value at age 25, and then jumped to stardom at age 27.  Bautista didn't manage an OPS+ over 100 until he was 29.  Downing blossomed when he left the Sox for the Angels and was converted to outfield.  Downing had 47 HR's in his 20's, and over 220 in his 30's.  These are all late bloomers who developed long after their prospect status had expired.