How Twins and Red Sox Could Match Up on an Edouard Julien Trade

[Cody Schoenmann]

Maybe these two AL Wild Card leaders can help one another by trading from strengths to address a key shortcoming.

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Over 93 games played, Boston Red Sox second basemen have netted a 68 wRC+. This ranks them second-to-last in offensive production at the keystone position. Second-year player Enmanuel Valdez (85 wRC+ over 182 plate appearances) has spent the most time of any Red Sox player at the position, notching 385 1/3 innings over 51 games. However, the 25-year-old infielder has since been demoted to Triple-A Worcester. The team has also cycled through an olio of other options at second base. Here is how the pieces of that rough-hewn jigsaw puzzle have performed this season offensively:

• Vaughn Grissom (186 innings at 2B) - 1 wRC+ over 87 plate appearances
• David Hamilton (118 innings at 2B) - 100 wRC+ over 205 plate appearances
• Jamie Westbrook (58 innings at 2B) - 81 wRC+ over 30 plate appearances
• Pablo Reyes (39 innings at 2B) - 24 wRC+ over 64 plate appearances

Boston has performed well above expectations this season, sitting only a game and a half back from the Twins for the second AL Wild Card and possessing a 41.4% chance of earning a playoff spot, according to FanGraphs. Much of the organization's newfound success can be attributed to a starting pitching renaissance (seventh-best staff ERA in MLB) cultivated by former Twins pitcher turned baseball executive Craig Breslow, pitching coach Andrew Bailey, and director pitching of pitching Justin Willard (Twins pitching coordinator from 2021-2023).

Interestingly, the Twins have a serviceable second baseman waiting in the wings at Triple-A in Edouard Julien, and they also have a need for starting pitching help. Would it be wise for Twins decision-makers to send the left-handed hitter to Boston, in return for starting pitching help? Let's take a look.

The Twins' offense has become a powerhouse, posting the highest batting average, slugging, wOBA, and wRC+ in baseball since Apr. 21. Having been the hottest lineup in MLB for well over two months has made a few fringy contributors expendable. Willi Castro, José Miranda, Brooks Lee, and the soon-to-return Royce Lewis have fixed themselves as irreplaceable members of the team's infield, making Julien less so.

Julien struggled to produce offensively with the Twins in May (42 wRC+ over 81 plate appearances) and when he was first demoted to Triple-A St. Paul in early June. However, Julien has significantly improved in July, and looks more like the disciplined, power-hitting lefty who posted a 136 wRC+ over 408 plate appearances last season.

His recent offensive resurgence is an encouraging sign that team decision-makers could use to their benefit come Jul. 30, particularly with the second base-needy Red Sox. Flush with starters and relievers who are performing well, Boston could use their abundance of arms to entice the Twins enough to acquire the intriguing left-handed hitting infielder. At first glance, starting pitchers Nick Pivetta and Kutter Crawford catch one's attention as appealing right-handed hurlers who could fortify Minnesota's rotation. However, they have become staples of the Sox's resurgent rotation, making it highly unlikely that Breslow and company part ways with them amid a playoff push, especially with the team directly in front of them in the Wild Card standings.

However, there is a thought-provoking mock trade idea that could benefit both teams in the short and long term:

• Minnesota receives left-handed reliever Brennan Bernardino and infield prospect Cutter Coffey (FanGraphs's 25th-ranked Red Sox prospect)
• Boston receives infielder Edouard Julien

Bernardino has been a cog in Boston's bullpen, notching a 1.69 ERA, 2.76 FIP, and 22.1% strikeout rate over 32 innings pitched. The 32-year-old southpaw has also given up zero home runs this season, while leaving 82.5% of runners on base. He would instantly become Minnesota's best left-handed reliever, permitting the team to downgrade Steven Okert to a lower-leverage role, demote Kody Funderburk to Triple-A St. Paul, and potentially part ways with the aged and fading Caleb Thielbar. Coffey, 20, is an appealing middle infielder who could offset Julien's departure from the Twins system. He has an above-average arm at short (he threw 94 MPH as a pitcher in high school), while possessing plus raw power that could translate into formidable in-game power as he gets more at-bats.

The recent trend of injuries to core infield members Lewis, Miranda, and Correa dampens the prospect of trading Julien in the immediate future. However, none of their injuries should hold them out long-term, meaning a lack of infield depth hope could easily be a non-issue come Jul. 30. In this hypothetical scenario, the Red Sox would acquire a steady defensive second baseman who performed 36% better than average at the plate just last season. He has starting second baseman potential and, at minimum, could function as a platoon partner with the right-handed hitting Hamilton.

In return, the Twins would receive a reliever who would instantly become the club's best left-handed option out of the 'pen and could be a driving force in helping the team hunt down Cleveland in the standings. Also, Coffey would be a welcomed addition to a minor-league system rich with talent in the low minors. This challenge trade could be mutually beneficial for two parties residing right next to each other in the AL Wild Card standings.

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[Ctwink]

If Julien has so much value, why wouldn't we just trade him one-for-one for a starter rather than getting an average ML player and a Top 25 prospect especially when the ML guy we are getting has had middling success the previous two years between a serviceable K rate which doesn't make up for his high walk rate.  And his walk and K rate have gone in opposite directions this year which implies some of his success is luck.  Sure he hasn't had a walk since June 12, but he's also only had 1 K (11 games and only 1K!).  Not only does he not profile as a pitcher the Twins FA would target, seems like the only upside is that he isn't eligible for Free Agency until 2030 and he's left handed.  Pass....

[mike8791]

Agree that Julien is one of the Twins' best trade chips.  So to trade him for a reliever, no matter how good, seems a waste, particularly given the team's need to bolster the rotation for the stretch run and hopefully, the playoffs.  

Isn't it a better idea to shoot higher by packaging Julien with one of our top 5 minor league pitchers and one of our excess OFs(Kirillof/Larnach,/Wallner, e.g) to land a top 3 rotation arm?  No question the team will need reinforcement.  Lopez has proven to be a big disappointment; SWR is probably near his innings limit; and Paddack is an iffy#5.  While it's still uncertain who will be available by the 30th, the FO, with ownership chipping in additional $'s(Gasp!), names like Snell, Fedde, Anderson, Crochet, Blackburn could be within reach with the right package.  Any one of this group would provide the extra cushion needed, especially if the lineup slackens from their 2 month surge.

[dxpavelka]

29 minutes ago, Ctwink said:

If Julien has so much value, why wouldn't we just trade him one-for-one for a starter rather than getting an average ML player and a Top 25 prospect especially when the ML guy we are getting has had middling success the previous two years between a serviceable K rate which doesn't make up for his high walk rate.  And his walk and K rate have gone in opposite directions this year which implies some of his success is luck.  Sure he hasn't had a walk since June 12, but he's also only had 1 K (11 games and only 1K!).  Not only does he not profile as a pitcher the Twins FA would target, seems like the only upside is that he isn't eligible for Free Agency until 2030 and he's left handed.  Pass....

a guy you have demoted to AAA isn't going to bring the "playoff caliber starting pitcher" our fan base is obsessed with.

[weneedneshek]

17 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

a guy you have demoted to AAA isn't going to bring the "playoff caliber starting pitcher" our fan base is obsessed with.

Probably right but he has already put up 3/4ths of a quality major league season just last year and has shown recent signs of turning it around.

If this is the best we can hope to get then I pass and wait for his stock to rise.

[Brandon]

I would hate it if the Twins go to the playoffs and get knocked out by Julien hitting a walkoff hit for Boston....

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

A 32 year old left handed reliever and a guy who will likely never see the majors would be selling incredibly low on Julien. 

[SaberNerd]

I'm not opposed to this trade in theory but Bernardino is already 32 and the only thing he has done above average is HR prevention in 85 innings, which is nowhere near enough for me to buy that he will continue it.  A younger reliever who shows more of an ability to strike guys out and limit walks with 3+ years of control would tempt me.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I am open to the idea of making trades. I don't see the Twins selling on someone that they deem to be at a low point. I don't know that I see a fit like this happening.

[Vanimal46]

Unless you think Julien has lost it completely, this is an incredibly short sighted trade with the potential to blow up in our face. 

[jorgenswest]

I think it is a bad idea to sell low. I am glad we didn’t sell low on Miranda.

[Doctor Gast]

Julien will come back as a better hitter than he was before with fewer SOs, which is a big plus that IMO the league will also see & value.  Since the Twins are bound & determined to keep Julien at 2B, with Lee, Lewis, Martin, Castro & Farmer at that position then he's expendable. 

Julien for Bernardino isn't even close but if you include Kyle Teal then that's something I can get excited about & get behind. Julien for Teal is fair then with Bernardino that'll make Boston side top-heavy & we need to find another player(s) that fits Boston's need & balance the wager. Carmargo could be one.

[NYCTK]

Not only would this be a terrible trade for the Twins, I doubt the Red Sox are really interested in adding an obstruction to the player they believe will be their 2B for 4+ years in Grissom. 

[Road trip]

Julien's spray chart would play incredibly well in Fenway.  I can't imagine a better ballpark for his opposite field tendencies.  Thus, it is logical that the Red Sox may have some interest.  However the Twins would really be selling low if they moved him this month...

[Tibs]

No thanks

[gman]

I'm not a fan. We may have several players crowding a position however just last weekend we had Vazquez playing third base. Position certainty is never a given.

[LambchoP]

I don't like it. Even if Julien may be blocked at 2nd base, they could give him reps at 1b too. Trading a controllable infielder with great bat control who has been much better lately for an aging reliever would be a terrible idea. If we do trade Julien, it should be him as part of s package of prospects to get a solid starting pitcher 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Trading Julien may not be a terrible idea, but I would question doing it now, with his value certainly on the low side.  I also can't imagine trading him for a relief pitcher and a minor league infielder.  A relief pitcher is usually something you can get for a veteran on an expiring contract, not for a potentially starting caliber player with many years of control.  We need to find somebody who REALLY likes Julien.

The kind of trade I could get behind would be packaging him with other prospects/mlb players to get a quality starting pitcher.  I haven't done the homework to figure out who that should be, but a good look at next year's 40 man roster would be in order before pulling the trigger.  Certainly there are players who will come off of it, but there should also be players that have to be added (and maybe a couple who we want to add anyway) as well as a few major league contract signings this winter.  Subtracting a couple off of the 40 man in exchange for a better player would be a really good idea. 

[chpettit19]

I have no problem trading Julien. I actually wanted him to be the centerpiece for a trade for a Marlin pitcher during the offseason. But this is an awful return for him. If that's all he can bring back in a trade right now they shouldn't even think about trading him.

[Doctor Gast]

According to Fangraph team ranking at each position by WAR, RP isn't one of BOS's strengths it's one of their weakness with only NYY & BAL with less WAR of all the true contenders. So I doubt that BOS would want to trade from there, But here again it's an opportunity to nab Teal.

[old nurse]

3 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

a guy you have demoted to AAA isn't going to bring the "playoff caliber starting pitcher" our fan base is obsessed with.

Julian and one of the upper tier pitching prospects that the fans would later gnash their teeth over being traded would get it done for a younger starting pitcher on a rebuilding team. I don’t think that player exists, but the start of the article was about trading for starting pitching 

[thelanges5]

No thanks. Julien and Miranda platoon at 1B in 2025!

[DJL44]

If they trade Julien to the Red Sox I want Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz in return because pitchers with two last names are cool.

[Ctwink]

4 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

a guy you have demoted to AAA isn't going to bring the "playoff caliber starting pitcher" our fan base is obsessed with.

I was replying to the article's assertion that he would bring a ML player and a Top 25 prospect.  "IF THAT WERE TRUE", then he would probably bring a better starting pitcher if we deleted the prospect.

[MMMordabito]

Remember Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps?

[Linus]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I have no problem trading Julien. I actually wanted him to be the centerpiece for a trade for a Marlin pitcher during the offseason. But this is an awful return for him. If that's all he can bring back in a trade right now they shouldn't even think about trading him.

Yep. I wanted to trade Julien plus prospects last winter to Seattle for one of their starters. I strongly believed at that time he was a big regression candidate which has come to fruition.  At this point they would be selling low so I wouldn’t bother. I would play him at first in St Paul and let him battle it out with Kiriloff next spring for the platoon first base spot. 

[Jocko87]

5 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

a guy you have demoted to AAA isn't going to bring the "playoff caliber starting pitcher" our fan base is obsessed with.

It will. He may not be that guy this year but it could certainly get a Joe Ryan type.  The demotion has nothing to do with it.  Other teams have prospects too.  They know how it works.

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, Road trip said:

Julien's spray chart would play incredibly well in Fenway.  I can't imagine a better ballpark for his opposite field tendencies.  Thus, it is logical that the Red Sox may have some interest.  However the Twins would really be selling low if they moved him this month...

I would rather send Julien to Toronto as part of a deal for Kikuchi. I'm sure the Blue Jays would love to have a Canadian player who can hit the snot out of the ball in Fenway.

[LewFordLives]

Good article, but I wouldn't do that deal. That's actually less than what the Twins got for Polanco, and I value Julien way more than Polanco because of his affordable team control.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

25 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

It will. He may not be that guy this year but it could certainly get a Joe Ryan type.  The demotion has nothing to do with it.  Other teams have prospects too.  They know how it works.

If you can get a Joe Ryan type starting pitcher for Eddie Julien, make that trade right away!  I'm a big fan of Julien and believe he will rebound well and go on to a decent MLB career, but getting a controllable solid rotation starter for him would be terrific.  Unfortunately, timing is everything in the world of trades.  Yes, other teams understand how prospect promotion/demotion works, but it is still much easier to get a team to bite if the player is playing well in the majors.