How Twins and Red Sox Could Match Up on an Edouard Julien Trade

[bean5302]

Woof!!!! This trade. Wooooooooof!

Bernardino isn't worth much as a 32 year old reliever with a good, but not great history, and you do not ever trade a cost controlled, premium MLB position player for a middle reliever. While he has a sparkly 1.69 ERA and a 2.76 FIP, that's because Bernardino hasn't surrendered a single home run this year which is not sustainable. His xFIP is 4.10 and his SIERA is 4.00. He's going to regress.

I've never been Julien's biggest fan, but the idea a two month reset in AAA takes a guy who was easily more valuable than Brooks Lee now sets the guy down to near PTBNL status is far too pessimistic. Boston would be signing papers and calling security to evict Bernardino from his hotel room before the phone call was even over.

Eduoard Julien's trade value is still showing at over +30 at Baseballtradevalues (reviewing prosposed trades) which included a trade to the White Sox for Eric Fedde and Tanner Banks pretty much all on Julien's own.

[jorgenswest]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

According to Fangraph team ranking at each position by WAR, RP isn't one of BOS's strengths it's one of their weakness with only NYY & BAL with less WAR of all the true contenders. So I doubt that BOS would want to trade from there, But here again it's an opportunity to nab Teal.

Boston can get so much more for Teel. His FV from Fangraphs is a 50. That is comparable to Brooks Lee but Lee is a year older and doesn’t play catcher. Jenkins for Teel and a reliever might be enough.

[nicksaviking]

Not a fan of trading for a LOOGY, 32 innings is too small of a sample size to think this guy is any good. Looks like he tops out at about 91 MPH on his FB and he guy got jacked by right handers last year. If he had good stuff, he probably wouldn't have had to wait until his fourth decade on the planet to get called up to the majors.

The Twins need to really start capitalizing on the prospect depth before they lose value. Seattle (obviously) said no to trading one of their starting five pitchers for Polanco, would they really have held firm to that had the Twins instead offered a package around Julien?

[bean5302]

Edouard Julien (30) + Marco Raya (5) -> Jesus Luzardo (19) + Andrew Nardi (16)

That's a trade.

[Parfigliano]

6 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

a guy you have demoted to AAA isn't going to bring the "playoff caliber starting pitcher" our fan base is obsessed with.

A 2basemen demoted to AAA wouldnt bring a pre-injury DeScalf level starter

[Shaitan]

I'm open to trading Julien (or any player who seems to lack a long-term, non-utility position) if the return is right. This is not.

I also question why the Twins would want to make Boston better if they're the top competition for the wild card right now.

Broader question: what is worse? Trading in-division or with the teams in wild card contention? I'd definitely say the latter, with an exclusion for the division leader. Zero short-term harm in a trade with bottom dwellers.

[Jocko87]

8 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

A 2basemen demoted to AAA wouldnt bring a pre-injury DeScalf level starter

Yes it would.  The depth of the Twins makes the demotion possible. It means nothing.

Now that the stupid trade values thing is behind a paywall I'm begging everyone to look at actual trades for comps to what might actually happen.

GMs don't use that chart, no reason we should. 

I almost forgot to mention that Julien for a reliever and a top 25 (TEAM!) prospect would be the worst trade in the history of baseball, maybe all of organized team sport.

Please use some actual comps for these articles.

I've been on board with trading Julien longer than most but I ain't giving him away.

[bean5302]

30 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

A 2basemen demoted to AAA wouldnt bring a pre-injury DeScalf level starter

I don't understand why the Twins didn't line up to trade Boushley for Jackson Holliday rather than DFA'ing him. After all, being demoted for a reset in AAA means the player is worthless. You know, like Matt Wallner, and Trevor Larnach, Simeon Woods Richardson, Bailey Ober and the like.

[DocBauer]

What's confusing me is a different idea also presented by Cody on a different website makes much more sense: Garrett Clevinger from Tampa Bay.

Somewhat similar to Topa last season, Clevinger had a rally nice SSS for Tampa in 2022 and  2023, with 18 and 12 IP respectively, with lower hit totals, and double digit K numbers, (somewhat high BB numbers), before suddenly expanding his usage here in 2024. He's up to 42 games and 38 IP so far with only 32 hits, 49 K's, and a fairly high 20 BB. While his AVG against is only .225, and none of his other quad numbers are outlandish...a not so great OB% of .343 due to his BB notwithstanding...his numbers are higher in 2024 than they were the previous 2 seasons, possibly due to SSS OR greater familiarity with him by opponents at this time.

But he's only a little over 30yo, only making about league minimum, and is team controlled through 2027. 

Now, we're not talking an All Star type of pen arm here,  but we are talking a LH arm that can strike guys out at a quality rate, and doesn't give up many actual hits. And if he fits in well, we can keep him for the forseeable future. Tampa is out of any playoff scenario for this season, so if they are interested in moving Clevinger, I'd think he's as good, or better, than Bernardino, and would come with a lot less cost prospect wise than someone like Julien. 

 

[Jocko87]

42 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I don't understand why the Twins didn't line up to trade Boushley for Jackson Holliday rather than DFA'ing him. After all, being demoted for a reset in AAA means the player is worthless. You know, like Matt Wallner, and Trevor Larnach, Simeon Woods Richardson, Bailey Ober and the like.

But where oh where would he play?

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

Boston can get so much more for Teel. His FV from Fangraphs is a 50. That is comparable to Brooks Lee but Lee is a year older and doesn’t play catcher. Jenkins for Teel and a reliever might be enough.

WOW! I was hoping for Teel in the draft, any chance to get him now is only a pipe dream. Boston is hurting at catcher too, they have to be very desperate to let him go.

[Brandon]

3 hours ago, old nurse said:

Julian and one of the upper tier pitching prospects that the fans would later gnash their teeth over being traded would get it done for a younger starting pitcher on a rebuilding team. I don’t think that player exists, but the start of the article was about trading for starting pitching 

Flaherty in Detroit is an option if the Twins want to go all in this year.  

[Mike Sixel]

6 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Unless you think Julien has lost it completely, this is an incredibly short sighted trade with the potential to blow up in our face. 

Might be the worst trade I've ever seen proposed. I'm getting Teel back for Julien 100x out of 100. I don't know how to even out that deal....but Julien is 100 percent a MLB player, I'm not dealing him for the proposed package ever. Zero chance. Zero. 

[Mike Sixel]

With CC possibly hurt....Lee to SS and Julien to 2B seems possible at this point (esp if Buxton is dinged and Castro plays CF). I can't see any way they deal Julien for less than a top 100 prospect or better (given he'd be a top 100 prospect, likely top 50 if he was still a prospect). Seriously. Wow. 

[bean5302]

Some other top 100 prospects and how they rank at Baseballtradevalues
Jenkins = 63.8
Lee = 30.8
Julien = 30.1
Keaschall = 20.7
Festa = 13.7
Matthews = 11.2
Gonzalez = 11.0

Some frontline to mid rotation starting pitcher value
Cease 26.8
Gallen 26.4
Fedde 20.9
Luzardo 17.2
Eflin 17.1
Gray 10.6
Flaherty 8.5
Kikuchi 5.3
Eovaldi 4.8
Scherzer 3.6
Gausman 0.2
Verlander -1.8
Bassitt -5.7
Darvish -21.8 

With the Diamondbacks once again over .500, I'd think Gallen would be hard to obtain, but I'd love for the Twins to snap him up if Arizona falters.

[Old fox]

I for making a trade but I would be aiming for a better plum or plums. I think the Twins can better players at just a tad more than suggested in trading with Boston. The Twins should consider Mariners for Trevor Rodgers  and Nandi or Scott or Bender and Chisholm.Rodgers appears to be on the road to recovery from a tremendous emotional down in 2022 from the loss of several immediate family members within a few weeks. From that low point of life and his career low, Rodgers, seems to have recovered part way to full recovery. He is young, several years of team control and a former 1st round draft choice. His stats seem to point to better days ahead. 
Nardi has good stats, young, several years of team control, Bender is has decent stats on his recovery from TJ surgery, and good stats before TJ surgery, young,  several years of team . Scott is a rental player, a proven veteran left handed reliever. Big question is? Resigning him will cost how many $$$$. Chisholm has some team control, reasonably price, with some power & reasonable b/a can play outfield &/or infield.He occasionally may lose control.  This trade I am willing to trade Gonzalez, Andrade & Rosario & Julien. 
Or a trade with the Angels for either Miller or Erceg both young relievers, years of control, hard throwers. They may cost a premium but are worth it. The Twins may trade  prospects Rosario & Andrade. 
As for the 2025 budget the Twins should be over $30 million less than the 2024 budget to start.  After arbitration pay raises there should be enough for FA & trades and keep ownership at bay.

It’s about time the ownership accepts responsibility for the TV & radio, streaming debacle and haven’t set up a concrete date deal yet. The ownership hasn’t taken responsibly for it and blame the players & front office and fans. 

[Jim wyllie]

Considering how other relievers the twins have recently acquired mid-season the past few years have with tge exception of Romo gone bust.  I'm not kean on Bernardino for 2 reasons, first his first is 1 run higher than his era which tells me his era is going up meaning a rough stretch might be ahead for him.  Secondly not having allowed a home run yet scares me as the law of averages states that will eventually change and could mean an eventual significant 2nd half of the season regression 

[RaoulDuke]

I am ok with trading Julien, he seemed to be the logical choice last off season to get a starter.  The bat is real as are the defensive shortcomings.  

Doing it now after he hit a sophmore wall is probably selling low on him, I would let him re-establish himself in the mlb before moving him.

 

 

[thelanges5]

19 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

No thanks. Julien and Miranda platoon at 1B in 2025!

2025 infield:

1B - Julien

2B - Lee

SS - Correa

3B - Lewis 

Miranda can platoon 1B, cover 3rd for Royce’s DH days. Lee can flex around SS and 3B when needed for rest or DH days. Castro will do Castro things when needed. 

[dxpavelka]

18 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

It will. He may not be that guy this year but it could certainly get a Joe Ryan type.  The demotion has nothing to do with it.  Other teams have prospects too.  They know how it works.

I should think that if we are seeking a playoff caliber starting pitcher we'd be focusing on one for THIS year.  If not, we might as well be selling wholesale.

[dxpavelka]

17 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

A 2basemen demoted to AAA wouldnt bring a pre-injury DeScalf level starter

even if it would, is a guy we had pegged as our 4th or 5th starter, a guy with a -.6 WAR the last two years combined, the "playoff caliber starter" we seek?

[JD-TWINS]

With Lewis potentially out for another entire month………Correa with Plantar Faciitis for the remainder of the year………Farmer with bad shoulder & no offense……….Miranda with back issues……….Lee being a Rookie that started fast but will level off, it seems to me that Julien (if hitting as shown here) should be on the 26-man with the Twins & not on some other roster.

As guys are available they can play predominantly on the left side of IF. Castro & Lee can flex to fill whatever position needs to be filled. Between Correa - Miranda - Lee they can cover DH on most days.

Can’t afford to move Julien with all these other balls in the air on July 19!

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

even if it would, is a guy we had pegged as our 4th or 5th starter, a guy with a -.6 WAR the last two years combined, the "playoff caliber starter" we seek?

No

[old nurse]

17 hours ago, Brandon said:

Flaherty in Detroit is an option if the Twins want to go all in this year.  

Flarety will be available as a rental. Detroit will want a better return than St Louis got.. I would imagine that any team looking to trade for him will look to see how well he did in Baltimore. Given that 10 game performance it is risky to give up a top 10 prospect out of your system. 

[Guest]

Well it may not have been the best trade proposed, but the article did a great job of using, "olio", in the text. Kudos Cody!!

[Road trip]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

With Lewis potentially out for another entire month………Correa with Plantar Faciitis for the remainder of the year………Farmer with bad shoulder & no offense……….Miranda with back issues……….Lee being a Rookie that started fast but will level off, it seems to me that Julien (if hitting as shown here) should be on the 26-man with the Twins & not on some other roster.

As guys are available they can play predominantly on the left side of IF. Castro & Lee can flex to fill whatever position needs to be filled. Between Correa - Miranda - Lee they can cover DH on most days.

Can’t afford to move Julien with all these other balls in the air on July 19!

I think this is where I'm at as well.  There are so many injured infielders right now that it makes a stashed Julien in AAA more valuable than anything we would get back for him.  Julien is likely the next man called up if any of our current infielders or outfielders get hurt, or even if Correa just needs a 10 day break to rest his feet from the plantar fasciitis issue.  Maybe the Twins will get some guys back from the IL by end of July (Miranda?  but back injuries are notably finicky and hard to project) and things will look different.  However right now I think they need Julien just for depth.  Otherwise the next guy up is.... a waiver wire pickup??

[WolvesGeek]

I think the analysis is great, but a LH reliever as the key piece back just doesn't seem likely with three already in the pen.  Not to mention, I think Julien remains prized in the organization as a future FIRST base prospect. 

[RpR]

11 hours ago, RaoulDuke said:

I am ok with trading Julien, he seemed to be the logical choice last off season to get a starter.  The bat is real as are the defensive shortcomings.  

Doing it now after he hit a sophmore wall is probably selling low on him, I would let him re-establish himself in the mlb before moving him.

 

 

Re-establish in rhe MiLB, which he is not doing now.

[Major League Ready]

23 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Not a fan of trading for a LOOGY, 32 innings is too small of a sample size to think this guy is any good. Looks like he tops out at about 91 MPH on his FB and he guy got jacked by right handers last year. If he had good stuff, he probably wouldn't have had to wait until his fourth decade on the planet to get called up to the majors.

The Twins need to really start capitalizing on the prospect depth before they lose value. Seattle (obviously) said no to trading one of their starting five pitchers for Polanco, would they really have held firm to that had the Twins instead offered a package around Julien?

Good question!  I didn't think Seattle was giving up on of those SPs without a king's ransom.   You have to believe they had lots of suitors, and it didn't happen.

[Cody Schoenmann]

3 hours ago, Verified Member said:

Well it may not have been the best trade proposed, but the article did a great job of using, "olio", in the text. Kudos Cody!!

Trueblood deserves credit for that one lol