David Festa Gets the Call to the Big Leagues, Maybe For Good

[Jamie Cameron]

David Festa is getting the call for the Twins, taking the ball for his MLB debut Thursday. What should we expect from the top pitching prospect in the organization? What's his current pitch mix? How long might he be a fixture in the Twins rotation? 

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson / St. Paul Saints

In the middle of May, I penned a piece for Twins Daily, arguing not only that David Festa is a top-100 overall prospect in the sport, but also that he’s MLB-ready. This week, he’ll make his debut for the Twins, seemingly affirming that the team feels the same way. Now that he’s here, what should we expect from Festa? What is his pitch mix? How long might he be expected to hold down a rotation spot? Let’s dig in.

David Festa is a 24-year old right-handed starter. He was drafted out of Seton Hall in the 13th round of the 2021 draft (399th overall), and signed for $125,000. Festa has been a well-decorated prospect. He was part of a combined Fort Myers no-hitter, pitched for the Twins in the Futures Game, and was recently named to MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 Prospects Lists. 

Festa has impressed in 2024, pitching entirely for the St. Paul Saints. He’s thrown 59 2/3 innings, producing a 3.77 ERA, 3.66 FIP, and 2.94 xFIP, while sporting a gaudy 35.1 K% (best in Triple-A for any starter north of 50 innings) and an improving 9.7 BB%, an impressive return for a first full season using the teeny-tiny technology-augmented strike zone.

So what can you expect from Festa on the mound? He’s primarily a three-pitch, fly-ball pitcher, with an affinity for spin. Here’s the breakdown of his Triple-A numbers to date. Festa’s four-seam fastball has a 90th-percentile velocity of 96.4 MPH (averaging 95.2); his hard slider averages 86.9; and his changeup sits at 87.9. Festa is an incredibly athletic, long-limbed, large-framed power pitcher. He achieved a significant velocity bump throughout his collegiate career, and he’s shown an increasing reliance on his slider and changeup, even month by month this season.

	4Seam%	Slider%	Change%	Curve%
versus LHH	32.8%	21.3%	40.9%	5%
versus RHH	33.3%	48.7%	17.8%	0.2%

Having noted the subtle fluctuations in pitch mix, it’s worth calling out the effectiveness of each pitch thus far in 2024. His slider and changeup are by far his most effective pitches. While his fastball has some exciting traits, it’s typically where damage against him originates.

	Miss%	Chase%	xSLG
4Seam	25.8%	22.9%	.438

So, what’s new for Festa in 2024? There are a few trends to mine here, starting with his fastball. Festa is getting more induced vertical break (IVB) on his fastball in 2024 (19 inches on average) versus 2023 (17.1). Festa has a high release (roughly 77 inches), but this is still an increase that will help Festa’s fastball do well at the top of the strike zone. Additionally, Festa is generating more release extension in 2024 (6.9 feet), giving his fastball an average effective velocity of 96.3 mph. In other words, because he’s getting down the mound so well, Festa’s fastball is playing up more than its velocity at release would imply. 

Festa’s command of his slider and changeup are arguably the most important developments from 2023 to 2024. Here’s a look at his slider location from 2023 to 2024, and his changeup location from 2023 to 2024. In both cases the command has improved significantly, he’s consistently burying his slider down and away from right handers and his changeup down and away from left handers. The results, for Festa’s slider in particular, speak for themselves.

	Miss%	Chase%	xSLG
Slider	44.8%	32%	.253
Changeup	41.2%	37.3%	.301

So how long might we expect Festa to stay in the rotation? It’s notable that the Twins have stretched him out recently at Triple-A, compared to his staccato starts at the beginning of the season. Festa has averaged 84 pitches per appearance in June, versus 64 per appearance in April. Festa has been generally healthy throughout his pro career to date. He threw 103 2/3 innings in 2022, followed by 92 1/3 innings in 2023. Currently at 59.2 in 2024, I’d imagine there is a soft benchmark on Festa’s innings for this season, perhaps in the 115-130 range, but that’s purely conjecture on my part.

Even on the more conservative side (100 inning cap), Festa has some leeway at the MLB level if he performs well. Assuming five innings per start, he’d have somewhere between 8 and 11 MLB starts before getting to the higher end of what the Twins might feel comfortable. As with any prospect in their first experience in MLB, I’d expect an adjustment curve, with some ups and downs.

Festa is an exceptional athlete with good arm talent, and has worked to maximize the effectiveness of his pitch mix and mechanics. I’d currently consider him a relatively high-variance starter. His control and command can waiver from start to start, and he gives up relatively hard contact, particularly on his fastball. If and when he’s on, however, he has the chance to be a long-term rotation arm for the Twins, closer to the top of the starter hierarchy than to the bottom.

As Twins Player Development Director Drew McPhail put it in an interview with MLB Pipeline; "There’s a world where David Festa is pitching in October, if everything goes ideally for the Twins and David." This week, we're one step closer to that world.

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[Patzky]

Pablo Day and Festaval.

The Twins are fun again if nothing else.

[USAFChief]

I'm pleasantly surprised. I was pretty sure they'd take the path of least resistance and bring up Varland Saturday. 

 

[Riverbrian]

I love Major League Debuts. I don't want to miss it. 

 

[CRF]

Kind of a surprise, but looking forward to seeing him. 

[Karbo]

If he can do a 5 and fly with3 runs or less it would be a successful debut!

[chpettit19]

Good for him. Excited to see what he can do. Him and SWR both succeeding this year in the rotation would be a massive development for this team and organization as a whole.

[Dman]

When he is on hitters can't tell the slider, form the change, from the fastball so he can get lot's of swings and misses.  The thing is he has to put stuff in the strike zone to get guys to chase and his fastball generally gets hit hard if they guess right.

His last time out I think he gave up extra base hits on his fastball (HR), Changeup higher up in the zone and inside (double) and slider slightly the outside and middle to low. So he can give up hard contact.

His best spot is the low and outside area where he spots the fastball for strikes and then throws the slider to the same spot and it drops at the last second for swing and miss.  It is a really tough combo for hitters.  

It's going to be interesting to see how well he does.  Hopefully things go well and he stays with the team for good.

[BH67]

6 minutes ago, Dman said:

When he is on hitters can't tell the slider, form the change, from the fastball so he can get lot's of swings and misses.  The thing is he has to put stuff in the strike zone to get guys to chase and his fastball generally gets hit hard if they guess right.

His last time out I think he gave up extra base hits on his fastball (HR), Changeup higher up in the zone and inside (double) and slider slightly the outside and middle to low. So he can give up hard contact.

His best spot is the low and outside area where he spots the fastball for strikes and then throws the slider to the same spot and it drops at the last second for swing and miss.  It is a really tough combo for hitters.  

It's going to be interesting to see how well he does.  Hopefully things go well and he stays with the team for good.

There will be a considerable learning curve at the major league level, but its duration may be short. The visual chart of his pitching precision compared to last year encourages me in that he strives continually to maximize his performance.

[Parfigliano]

41 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I love Major League Debuts. I don't want to miss it. 

 

Im going to miss seeing it because its against AZ so it's listening for me.

[ashbury]

Apparently the talent evaluators aren't bothered by the three home runs in his final two AAA starts.  This is always a case where I don't bother trying to form an independent opinion.  His overall stats look good enough this year and if the guys who earn a living watching players say he's ready, I'm not going to argue against, nor second guess if he lays an egg his first try in the majors.  I'm just a fan.

[ashbury]

53 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I'm pleasantly surprised. I was pretty sure they'd take the path of least resistance and bring up Varland Saturday. 

 

Yeah, but that 20-9 game in St Paul last Sunday is a little difficult to look past.

[FlyingFinn]

1 hour ago, Patzky said:

Pablo Day and Festaval.

or F(i)esta Day.

[FlyingFinn]

It never shows up in his stats but we was great under pressure in the playoffs for Cedar Rapids, 7 IP, 2 H, 0 BB, and maybe 10 K's if I remember correctly. Long-time fan of his since that year and will be rooting for him. 

[Doctor Gast]

Festa is a promising young pitcher, I wish him well.

[MMMordabito]

Look forward to the debut festa

[BH67]

44 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

or F(i)esta Day.

On this blog, a bad game results in Día de los Muertos, with extreme emphasis on the "Muertos." That's when I take a siesta from this place.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

This is exciting to see. He seems ready for this and I think it's pretty easy to overlook a blowup day.  I'm not expecting anything ridiculous and would be happy with #4/5 starter kind of numbers for a rookie debut.  If we get better, it's a Festi(a)val!

[Doctor Gast]

47 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Festa is a promising young pitcher, I wish him well.

It's exciting to see our young players like SWR & Festa get the chance to shine. If DeSclavani had limped around the mound this season neither would have had a chance. Or probably much delayed like Lee & Keirsey.

[Doctor Gast]

5 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

or F(i)esta Day.

In Portuguese it is Festa (party), I guess it's time for Festa (party)

[roger]

Add me to those who will be happy with 5 innings and 3 or less runs.  Happy as a pig in you know what!

Now if he does that, a) will the Twins pen keep the score at 3? And b) will the hitters score 4 or more runs?

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

I love Major League Debuts. I don't want to miss it. 

 

If it's an evening game, I'll miss it. But if it's not, I sure won't. 

[Mike Sixel]

Congrats and Good Luck to him! Well deserved. 

[Riverbrian]

5 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

If it's an evening game, I'll miss it. But if it's not, I sure won't. 

Day Game

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I love Major League Debuts. I don't want to miss it. 

 

My condolences!

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

It's exciting to see our young players like SWR & Festa get the chance to shine. If DeSclavani had limped around the mound this season neither would have had a chance. Or probably much delayed like Lee & Keirsey.

We are not signing Gerrit Cole this off-season or anyone like him. I'm reasonably sure of that. 

I absolutely do not want to sign innings eaters like DeSclafini or Bundy. 

The only solution to this is to develop pitchers. It's the only way that we will end up with a pitcher like Gerrit Cole in the future.

The pipeline produces or we will draft very high the following year. Festa getting a 40 man roster spot and the ball on Thursday is how it is supposed to work... It's how it needs to work.  

[Linus]

Excellent article!  A bunch of good info. Hopefully he can have good command in the bigs. I believe that will be the key. 

[bean5302]

I think it's a good call. Festa probably is who he is at this point. Not saying there isn't more refinement in his game in the future, but I don't think there's anything left for him to work on based on his AAA experience. Time for him to meet MLB batters, and find out if his stuff plays in the big show now or if there are a couple things he needs to work on.

The varying models have Festa projected at 3.84 - 4.45 ERA, not that they're worth anything for pitchers, I don't think haha.

[nicksaviking]

39 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

We are not signing Gerrit Cole this off-season or anyone like him. I'm reasonable sure of that. 

I absolutely do not want to sign innings eaters like DeSclafini or Bundy. 

The only solution to this is to develop pitchers. It's the only way that we will end up with a pitcher like Gerrit Cole in the future.

The pipeline produces or we will draft very high the following year. Festa getting a 40 man roster spot and the ball on Thursday is how it is supposed to work... It's how it needs to work.  

I prefer your option to the DeSclafani/Bundy option, but I still like the path of trading for controllable talented pitchers like Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Maeda and Odorizzi. Even with the Mahles and Paddocks included, this seems to be the highest hit rate by far.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

If it's an evening game, I'll miss it. But if it's not, I sure won't. 

2:40 CST on Thursday…..am hoping Team can ride him for 3 starts to get them to the Break!! Should be fun to watch.

Paddack back after 3 full weeks off & a couple refresher sessions to follow…..back July 24th at home.

Maybe Festa can fill in for SWR for a start after the Break to give Simeon a little rest as well?