David Festa Gets the Call to the Big Leagues, Maybe For Good

In the middle of May, I penned a piece for Twins Daily, arguing not only that David Festa is a top-100 overall prospect in the sport, but also that he’s MLB-ready. This week, he’ll make his debut for the Twins, seemingly affirming that the team feels the same way. Now that he’s here, what should we expect from Festa? What is his pitch mix? How long might he be expected to hold down a rotation spot? Let’s dig in.

David Festa is a 24-year old right-handed starter. He was drafted out of Seton Hall in the 13th round of the 2021 draft (399th overall), and signed for $125,000. Festa has been a well-decorated prospect. He was part of a combined Fort Myers no-hitter, pitched for the Twins in the Futures Game, and was recently named to MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 Prospects Lists. 

Festa has impressed in 2024, pitching entirely for the St. Paul Saints. He’s thrown 59 2/3 innings, producing a 3.77 ERA, 3.66 FIP, and 2.94 xFIP, while sporting a gaudy 35.1 K% (best in Triple-A for any starter north of 50 innings) and an improving 9.7 BB%, an impressive return for a first full season using the teeny-tiny technology-augmented strike zone.

So what can you expect from Festa on the mound? He’s primarily a three-pitch, fly-ball pitcher, with an affinity for spin. Here’s the breakdown of his Triple-A numbers to date. Festa’s four-seam fastball has a 90th-percentile velocity of 96.4 MPH (averaging 95.2); his hard slider averages 86.9; and his changeup sits at 87.9. Festa is an incredibly athletic, long-limbed, large-framed power pitcher. He achieved a significant velocity bump throughout his collegiate career, and he’s shown an increasing reliance on his slider and changeup, even month by month this season.

Having noted the subtle fluctuations in pitch mix, it’s worth calling out the effectiveness of each pitch thus far in 2024. His slider and changeup are by far his most effective pitches. While his fastball has some exciting traits, it’s typically where damage against him originates.

So, what’s new for Festa in 2024? There are a few trends to mine here, starting with his fastball. Festa is getting more induced vertical break (IVB) on his fastball in 2024 (19 inches on average) versus 2023 (17.1). Festa has a high release (roughly 77 inches), but this is still an increase that will help Festa’s fastball do well at the top of the strike zone. Additionally, Festa is generating more release extension in 2024 (6.9 feet), giving his fastball an average effective velocity of 96.3 mph. In other words, because he’s getting down the mound so well, Festa’s fastball is playing up more than its velocity at release would imply. 

Festa’s command of his slider and changeup are arguably the most important developments from 2023 to 2024. Here’s a look at his slider location from 2023 to 2024, and his changeup location from 2023 to 2024. In both cases the command has improved significantly, he’s consistently burying his slider down and away from right handers and his changeup down and away from left handers. The results, for Festa’s slider in particular, speak for themselves.

So how long might we expect Festa to stay in the rotation? It’s notable that the Twins have stretched him out recently at Triple-A, compared to his staccato starts at the beginning of the season. Festa has averaged 84 pitches per appearance in June, versus 64 per appearance in April. Festa has been generally healthy throughout his pro career to date. He threw 103 2/3 innings in 2022, followed by 92 1/3 innings in 2023. Currently at 59.2 in 2024, I’d imagine there is a soft benchmark on Festa’s innings for this season, perhaps in the 115-130 range, but that’s purely conjecture on my part.

Even on the more conservative side (100 inning cap), Festa has some leeway at the MLB level if he performs well. Assuming five innings per start, he’d have somewhere between 8 and 11 MLB starts before getting to the higher end of what the Twins might feel comfortable. As with any prospect in their first experience in MLB, I’d expect an adjustment curve, with some ups and downs.

Festa is an exceptional athlete with good arm talent, and has worked to maximize the effectiveness of his pitch mix and mechanics. I’d currently consider him a relatively high-variance starter. His control and command can waiver from start to start, and he gives up relatively hard contact, particularly on his fastball. If and when he’s on, however, he has the chance to be a long-term rotation arm for the Twins, closer to the top of the starter hierarchy than to the bottom.

As Twins Player Development Director Drew McPhail put it in an interview with MLB Pipeline; "There’s a world where David Festa is pitching in October, if everything goes ideally for the Twins and David." This week, we're one step closer to that world.