Should the Twins Shift Griffin Jax Back to Starting Pitcher?

[Cody Christie]

Driveline Baseball has helped multiple Twins players improve in recent offseasons. However, they are wrong to think Griffin Jax should shift back to a starting role.

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

Baseball is a game that is constantly evolving, with teams looking for a way to gain a slight advantage over the opposition. One trend in recent years is turning elite bullpen arms into starting pitchers. Players like Jordan Hicks, Garrett Crochet, and Michael King have made the transition during the last two seasons with varying levels of success. 

Many relievers, including those on the Twins, served as starters before shifting to a relief role because of performance or injury concerns. Some of the best relievers in Minnesota history were “failed starters,” including Joe Nathan, Glen Perkins, and Taylor Rogers. Shifting to a bullpen role usually allows pitchers to add velocity and limit their pitch selection to improve their ability to get outs. Previously, teams didn’t consider shifting players back to starting if they provided value out of the bullpen, because why would they fix something that isn’t broken?

Former Twins pitcher Zack Littell is another example of a reliever who has shifted back to a starting role, and he thinks others will follow that same path.  “I think you’re starting to see it more and more,” Littell said. “There’s some indicators like you look at the bullpen guy and he throws a lot of strikes. He punches out a good amount of guys. He doesn’t walk guys. He might give up some more hits in the bullpen, but as a starter you can kind of get away with that.”

Griffin Jax is one of those “failed starters” who has found renewed life as a dominant late-inning arm. Earlier this week, Driveline Baseball posted a video from Chris Langin, their Director of Pitching, explaining why Jax should be the next reliever to jump from reliever to starting pitcher. To get a complete picture of Jax, it’s essential to look back at his time as a starting pitcher and see how he has developed during his bullpen tenure. 

Jax spent most of his minor league career as a starter in the Twins farm system. He made 56 minor league appearances, and 50 came in a starting role. He posted a 3.24 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and 6.8 K/9. His results as a starter at the big-league level were less successful. In 14 games, he allowed 47 earned runs on 68 hits in 69 1/3 innings. Jax struggled to get swings and misses as his K/9 dropped to 7.0, and batters posted a .842 OPS against him. His stuff wasn’t working as a starter, so the team moved him to the bullpen.  

Jax has traits that are different compared to other relievers. Many bullpen arms focus on throwing two or three pitches in relief, but Jax has continued using a starter's repertoire with a four-pitch mix. His sweeper is his most regularly used pitch (41%), so he’d likely need to increase his fastball usage (27%) if he moved back to the rotation. In 2024, his fastball has allowed a .171 SLG, but the xSLG is .400, which is a sign that he might be getting lucky. His increased velocity in the bullpen is a sign of some mechanical adjustments, but there is no guarantee that he would sustain these changes with a starter’s workload. 

Moving Jax to a starting role can’t happen in the middle of the season, so this is likely something he would need to prepare for in the offseason. Looking ahead to next season, every current member of the Twins starting rotation will still be under contract. There is also organizational depth, such as Louie Varland, David Festa, Zebby Matthews, Cory Lewis, and Marco Raya. Injuries can always impact a team’s depth, but the Twins seem to have more than enough starters for 2025. For now, Jax can concentrate on being one of the game’s best relievers and not worry about switching back to a starting role. 

Should the Twins consider making Jax a starter? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Karbo]

Thats a NO from me. He's an elite relief pitcher on a team that has problems developing them!

[Whitey333]

No.  What a ridiculous argument.  Why take him out of an element that he is good at?

[LambchoP]

No. Removing Jax would cripple our bullpen. You don't remove your best reliever. Twins should just look to grab a starter with control at the deadline, and look for upgrades in the off-season. Maybe move Paddack to the bullpen if we can pick up a good starter with control.

[Doctor Gast]

Jax could have been stretched out this off-season when SP depth was in doubt & Varland proved to be a great BP piece with doubts of being a viable SP. Yet it's hard to really know how good Jax could be as a SP. The only way is to give him a shot, Some were able to make the transition back to the rotation with some success while others like A.J. Puk have not. 

Next season all those numerous prospects that you mentioned will be closer to cementing their position as a MLB SP. Which will diminish the need for Jax to be so. Jax has been the one true solid high-leverage RP so far & it'll be hard to move him off there. Like you said "if it's not broken, don't fix it" seems to ring true. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

No

[Parfigliano]

I dont see a mid-season move like this happening.

[gman]

I'm not fond of the idea. I expect and hope more of the future bullpen to be built of former starters rather than retreads.

[darin617]

How would this even be possible now? Jax is probably throwing like 20 pitches a game at tops and how could you stretch him out during the season and not weaken your pen at the same time?

Even if they did it next season he would have an innings limit and what happens when he reaches it? They tried it with Varland and the results aren't there.  It sucks for them because the bigger money is as a starter over being a set up guy.

[thelanges5]

He’s too valuable to the bullpen in its current state. 

[tony&rodney]

We may not want to see our most consistent reliever moved out of the bullpen, but the argument by Langin is very well constructed with enough specific evidence to believe that the move would be quite successful. Despite my decades of coaching and playing, I find it easy to defer to the expertise of individuals such as Langin.

It seems unlikely that the Twins would make this move without an arm or two to fill in for Jax in the bullpen. Perhaps Jax becomes a starting pitcher once he has moved on to another team. Jax is under team control for 3.5 more years, which means the opportunity would need to come with the Twins or via a trade. One can wonder what value another team places on Jax because of the possibilities.

Jax is a totally different pitcher than when he was a starter with his mix, stuff, and experience. I believe he would be a very good starting pitcher. Will he get the opportunity? Who would replace him in the bullpen?

Jax is not going to switch this season in any event. Relief pitchers are fairly fungible. Guys like Sands, Winder, Varland, others, and even Balazovic can develop as effective one inning relievers similar to Jax. Not all pitchers can develop more than two pitches. Paddack seems like a good bullpen guy but the Twins may be reticent to put his $7.5 million contract for next season in the pen, although it may be the best use for the team. 

Moving Jax into the rotation is an interesting idea and one to watch.

[Bodie]

Moving a short reliever into the rotation seldom works.  This isn't Johan Santana who was brought up as a bullpen guy (after working through the minors as a starter) to "get his feet wet" before his planned (and eventual) move to the rotation. 

 

I'm not yet sold on him being an elite reliever (give it time!), but he is likely the best, most reliable, reliever the Twins have at present.

[NotAboutWinning]

Please stop with the articles about turning successful relievers who are failed starters back into failed starters! It's not like they took a perfectly good SP and decided to make him an RP. There was a path to where he is now.

[Dman]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

We may not want to see our most consistent reliever moved out of the bullpen, but the argument by Langin is very well constructed with enough specific evidence to believe that the move would be quite successful. Despite my decades of coaching and playing, I find it easy to defer to the expertise of individuals such as Langin.

It seems unlikely that the Twins would make this move without an arm or two to fill in for Jax in the bullpen. Perhaps Jax becomes a starting pitcher once he has moved on to another team. Jax is under team control for 3.5 more years, which means the opportunity would need to come with the Twins or via a trade. One can wonder what value another team places on Jax because of the possibilities.

Jax is a totally different pitcher than when he was a starter with his mix, stuff, and experience. I believe he would be a very good starting pitcher. Will he get the opportunity? Who would replace him in the bullpen?

Jax is not going to switch this season in any event. Relief pitchers are fairly fungible. Guys like Sands, Winder, Varland, others, and even Balazovic can develop as effective one inning relievers similar to Jax. Not all pitchers can develop more than two pitches. Paddack seems like a good bullpen guy but the Twins may be reticent to put his $7.5 million contract for next season in the pen, although it may be the best use for the team. 

Moving Jax into the rotation is an interesting idea and one to watch.

I agree with you.  Not only does he have a three pitch mix, but his pitches have improved dramatically since when he was a starter.  It is hard to say just how effective his mix would be as a starter as I have seen him get out of innings throwing 8 pitches and sometimes he has tough at bats where he throws 8 or more pitches to one batter.  Also I have never seen a pitcher get burned by weak contact as  much as Jax.  Stuff that doesn't even make it out of the infield fall for hits because it takes too long to get to a fielder.

So bottom line I think there is a fair amount of risk moving a closer type bullpen arm to a starter where we don't know if he will be much better than a 5th starter type but could be a mid rotation arm.  He also might be at an increased risk of injury throwing as hard as he does for 90 to 100 pitches per game.

If the Twins were starved for starters I could see it as a likely move, but they have options now and it looks like into the future.  If it were me I would just leave him where he has been and will continue to be successful, but I don't think the idea is far fetched at all.

[mikelink45]

No - we have Festa and Zebby ready to start - if I switch a BP arm it is Duran.

[tony&rodney]

17 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

No - we have Festa and Zebby ready to start - if I switch a BP arm it is Duran.

Personally, I am a big fan of both Festa and Matthews. They still have some tuning to do before getting their MLB opportunity, but the talent is already present. Currently, my feeling is that the Twins have a solid set of starters in Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Woods Richardson, and Paddack with Varland, Festa, and Matthews waiting their turn.

The post posits that Jax with his much improved and wider assortment may be fit for a move to a rotation. That sure seems plausible but also unlikely to occur in a Twins uniform. Maybe there is a team (Baltimore?) that is willing to match up talents in an exchange that results in Jax becoming a starting pitcher next season.

The discussion of Duran as a starter have been in Twins Daily posts in the past. Duran depends more on velocity and does not have the array of offerings of Jax, although I believe he is a better reliever. My thought is that Duran could not make the exchange from closer to starting pitcher. Others disagree, which is an interesting part of these comment boards. The Twins have received some decent bullpen work from Jax and Duran thus far. We should expect they will both will be critical to the team in September and October.

[$tryf4Life]

No. In order to win a World Series we need a few area that are elite. Jax gives us the best chance to have an elite bullpen and moving him creates problems to solve. 

[ashbury]

This article is an extreme example of Betteridge's Law of Headlines, where the author went ahead with the requisite answer of "No," instead of waiting for the reader to say it.

[ashbury]

5 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

I dont see a mid-season move like this happening.

Tell us you didn't read the article to completion without saying the words "I didn't read the article to completion."  😀

[bean5302]

I don't know about that. We've seen Jax as a starter, and it wasn't pretty. A major reason Jax's stuff plays up in the bullpen is the extra velocity he can reach back to find.

As a starter, Jax had a 92.8mph fastball.
Fastball Velo, Slider Velo, Cutter Velo, Curve Velo, Change Velo
2021 SP = 92.8, 83.3, N/A, 79.9, 86.7
2022 RP = 95.4, 86.4, N/A, 82.6, 89.8
2023 RP = 96.5, 86.7, 96.5, N/A, 91.1
2024 RP = 97.0, 89.2, 96.6, 87.0, 92.3

Stuff+ Rating
Fastball, Slider, Cutter, Curve, Change
2021 SP = 82, 135, N/A, 89, 70
2022 RP = 98, 155, N/A, 127, 76
2023 RP = 110, 151, 101, N/A, 96
2024 RP = 121, 168, 95, 153, 98

Jax in the rotation sees his pitch velocity drop by probably 3-4mph. His "stuff" may not even be effective anymore. It all starts with the fastball. Drop 3-4mph off his fastball, and it will almost certainly drop to well below average. His slider will drop off a lot, too. His cutter will be ineffective, and his changeup will go back to sucking. The curveball might hang in there.

[Beast]

I’m fine with it next year.  A good starter is more valuable than a good reliever.  It’s worth the risk.

This isn’t Mariano Rivera.  He’s good, but I think everyone would be fine if they traded him for a good starting pitcher.  What’s the difference, if he’s capable of doing it?

[olerud]

That's a terrible article and suggestion!

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I don't know about that. We've seen Jax as a starter, and it wasn't pretty. A major reason Jax's stuff plays up in the bullpen is the extra velocity he can reach back to find.

As a starter, Jax had a 92.8mph fastball.
Fastball Velo, Slider Velo, Cutter Velo, Curve Velo, Change Velo
2021 SP = 92.8, 83.3, N/A, 79.9, 86.7
2022 RP = 95.4, 86.4, N/A, 82.6, 89.8
2023 RP = 96.5, 86.7, 96.5, N/A, 91.1
2024 RP = 97.0, 89.2, 96.6, 87.0, 92.3

Stuff+ Rating
Fastball, Slider, Cutter, Curve, Change
2021 SP = 82, 135, N/A, 89, 70
2022 RP = 98, 155, N/A, 127, 76
2023 RP = 110, 151, 101, N/A, 96
2024 RP = 121, 168, 95, 153, 98

Jax in the rotation sees his pitch velocity drop by probably 3-4mph. His "stuff" may not even be effective anymore. It all starts with the fastball. Drop 3-4mph off his fastball, and it will almost certainly drop to well below average. His slider will drop off a lot, too. His cutter will be ineffective, and his changeup will go back to sucking. The curveball might hang in there.

I have no idea how Jax might react to a role change. Langin (Driveline) seems to suggest that Jax is nowhere near the guy he was previously because of changes to his pitching technique not because of being a relief pitcher. We have seen many guys pick up velocity with a change to the bullpen and if Jax lost speed it would likely affect all of his pitches. I just found it a plausible argument.

[tony&rodney]

Varland got lit up today to continue his minor league struggles after a recent decent start for the Twins. Maybe it is time to shift Varland back to the bullpen to get him some confidence (if he can find the groove he had last year in the pen).

[Brandon]

I think if Jax wants to move back to the rotation, he’s earned a chance to try.  Hard to see that with Minnesota unless Varland goes to the pen and is successful there so Jax can go to the rotation.  But Jax is entering his arbitration years and as a top reliever he will have good earning power.  Compared to others like Lugo or Montgomery.  They were solid middle relievers who could earn 5-8 million a season in the pen.  I’m sure if Jax keeps having his results will make 10+ million a year soon.  

[DocBauer]

Absolutely not.

1] There is no need. Despite Pablo having some hit and cold moments, same with Paddack coming back from TJ, Ober against KC, this rotation is GOOD. Think back on the past decade plus and the only 1-5 staff better than this season was last year. And all 5 are back for 2025.

2] While I suspect Varland is going to switch to the pen in 2025 full time, he's worth sticking with in the rotation for now. Festa is close. I still suspect Headrick will take off in the pen, but like Varland...when healthy again...is a rotation option. Festa is very close. Matthews might not be far behind. Morris wasn't mentioned in the OP, but he's only slightly behind Zebby. Lewis is healthy and throwing at AA again. Ohl is a shorter Ober clone who is getting hot again. Nowlin has some great stuff, might end up in the pen, but a step up in command/control, he could be a LH in the rotation within a year plus. And I'm not even really touching on Raya taking the next step. And ALL of these guys may be in AAA in 2025 if not a couple still making it there this season.

3] Jax's velocity will drop as a SP. It has to. You can't throw with that effort for 5-6 innings. And no matter how good his stuff is, facing a lineup 2 and 3 times is VERY different than trying to get 3-5 outs in his current role.

Just...NO.

[saviking]

Varland gave up 12 runs in 2.1 innings today. The discussion should be, why in the heck didn't we leave him as a reliever. Don't rock the boat with Jax when we have plenty of starting pitcher options.

[Otaknam]

Clickbait article! Glad this writer isn’t the GM! A silly concept to remove Jax from where he exhibits great success and switch him to starting halfway during the season. Wait until spring 2025 if they would consider this. 

[HerbieFan]

Good lord....NO!!!!  For the record, going old school, Rick Aguilera was also a "failed starter".  Jax has worked hard to become maybe their best reliever (considering Duran's up and down performance in 2024), why mess with a good thing?????

[sampleSizeOfOne]

14 hours ago, ashbury said:

Tell us you didn't read the article to completion without saying the words "I didn't read the article to completion."  😀

I merely skimmed it. 

Does that work?

-sampleSizeOfOne (who used to read articles early, often, and to completion)

 

ps.... Oh, and if readers are saying no to an article that says no, isn't that not a double negative?

On my own side, i do wish the let relievers try starting again more often....