Eduardo Escobar Trade Turned Into a Coup for Minnesota

[Ted Schwerzler]

The 2018 Minnesota Twins found themselves in an interesting position as the trade deadline approached. Derek Falvey made a difficult decision to rip off the band-aid of a fan favorite, but it resulted in a massive gain for the Minnesota Twins. Losing Eduardo Escobar hurt at the time, but the franchise is much better for it.

 

Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

On July 26, 2018 the Minnesota Twins, then led by Paul Molitor, were 48-53 while checking in seven games out of first place in the AL Central. Having been named the American League Manager of the Year following the 2017 season, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were unable to pick their choice to lead the team. Regression had set in and roster turnover needed to take place.

Despite Eduardo Escobar 's fan-favorite status, he was a 29-year-old with a .852 OPS who would soon be a free agent. There was never going to be a better opportunity to deal him. It was going to be met with backlash, similar to how Luis Arraez was viewed when he was shipped to Miami just last season, but the baseball side of things made sense.

The return for Escobar was uncertain. Dealing with the Diamondbacks, Minnesota made a play for quality on top of quantity. Gabriel Maciel was seen as the highlight of the return. The 11th best prospect in Arizona’s system by MLB Pipeline at the time, the Brazilian was a Pioneer League All-Star in 2017 and the name to know. Ernie De La Trinidad was a former 19th-round pick and little more than a flier. The other name in the deal was Jhoan Duran, who was Arizona’s 19th-best prospect per MLB Pipeline, a starting pitcher working at Low-A Kane County.

It wasn’t as though Maciel was tied to a significant signing bonus; he got just $90,000 in 2015 as an international free agent. His skill set was exciting, though, and the projectability seemed to be something that Minnesota could dream on. Ultimately, he never advanced beyond High-A, and his career .705 OPS across 445 minor league games was never going to get it done. That 52-game sample size for rookie ball Missoula was the only thing to hang his hat on, and he has been out of affiliated baseball since 2022 despite being just 25 years old.

On the flip side, Duran has become one of the most dominant relievers in baseball and has since established himself as more valuable to the Twins franchise than anything Escobar could have provided in the years since. Duran worked his way through the system as a starting pitcher, but his ability to pump triple-digit fastballs paired with a devastating sprinkler earned him a bullpen spot to start the 2022 season.

Not eligible for arbitration until 2025, and not a free agent until 2028, the Twins should have plenty of successful seasons with Duran at the back end of their bullpen. Just a day after the Escobar deal, Minnesota sent closer Ryan Pressly to the Houston Astros in exchange for Jorge Alcala and Gilberto Celestino. In that deal it was Celestino who was seen as the get, despite Alcala winding up as the more productive arm. Little did the front office know that they were replacing their current closer for the one of the future in such a short turnaround.

Not only is Duran among the most dominant arms in baseball, but he has become must-watch excitement when taking the field. He has shown a personality that has Minnesotans clamoring for his next appearance, and he has become something of a sure thing when Baldelli asks him to finish off a game. In the years since the trade, Escobar went on to accumulate 6.0 fWAR as a regular for three different teams while being paid roughly $40 million. Duran has already accumulated 2.8 fWAR, with the rest of 2024 pending while making just the league minimum. That value proposition is an ode to a front office that knew exactly what they were doing.

Sometimes the best trades include those that are the hardest to lose. Twins fans didn’t want to see Arraez be shipped out, but with the quickness that the Marlins pieced him out for more parts, it’s hard not to be excited about employing Pablo Lopez and having a Pablo Day every couple of weeks.

One of the greatest acquisitions for Minnesota in recent seasons was that of Jhoan Duran, and they’ll continue to reap the benefits for multiple seasons going forward.

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[LambchoP]

I'd say another great trade was half a year of Nelson Cruz for rotation stalwart Joe Ryan. Plenty of bad trades too though, look at last year's deadline. Still hurts to see CES and Spencer Steer hitting so well...

[Ted Schwerzler]

56 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

I'd say another great trade was half a year of Nelson Cruz for rotation stalwart Joe Ryan. Plenty of bad trades too though, look at last year's deadline. Still hurts to see CES and Spencer Steer hitting so well...

I think there's a way to differentiate trades though. At the time it was made, the Mahle deal was fine, even good. Minnesota was getting a starter with projectable upside for two bat-only prospects. It went wrong because he got hurt.

The Cruz deal was an immediate win because there were signs he was trending down, and then was cooked. Flipping Escobar hurt because he was a fan favorite, but the front office picked some really good pieces to have a potential to make work.

[MABB1959]

'He has become must-watch excitement when taking the field."

If only we could WATCH.  MLB had free games for Mother's day weekend but of course they were blacked out.  Not exactly a selling point for MLB TV,

Hard to get to know the players when you do not get to see them.  

[Dman]

No question Duran was a good get for the Twins.  Still when Escobar left they sure had a tough time filling his shoe's at third.  So much so that they went and got Donaldson and really never solved third until Lewis IMO.  

Duran continues to be a real difference maker in the pen, but IMO we lost a fair bit of value when Esco was at his peak.  Hard to say if the Twins would have extended him though so maybe a mute point.  We had to wait a bit, but the trade is working out well now.

[RpR]

19 minutes ago, Dman said:

No question Duran was a good get for the Twins.  Still when Escobar left they sure had a tough time filling his shoe's at third.  So much so that they went and got Donaldson and really never solved third until Lewis IMO.  

 

Donaldson was good there; Urshela was good there; Miranda was not good there.

There was no problem with Donaldson and Urshela.

[MN_ExPat]

..."but his ability to pump triple-digit fastballs paired with a devastating sprinkler "

So this explains how Happy got doused so quickly 😉

 

[Dman]

2 minutes ago, RpR said:

Donaldson was good there; Urshela was good there; Miranda was not good there.

There was no problem with Donaldson and Urshela.

I guess you are right Donaldson was good for the small amount of games he played. He didn't fall off until he got moved to NY.  I think I have some built in bias with him being injured a fair bit and the short 2020 season. an .800 OPS is really good.

I did like Urshela but he seemed more like a place holder for another player, not a real solution there.

[bean5302]

The article talks about the trade turning into a coup... but it really hasn't. It's turned out good, but it took 4 years for the Twins to get any return at all. The trade was always about lottery tickets, and there was a very real risk none of the players AZ gave up would ever step onto the field during an MLB game.

The Diamondbacks got a great run out of Escobar in 2018, though his great run down the stretch wasn't able to carry them into the playoffs. Still, AZ was able to extend him on the cheap while he was under team control and they watched Escobar earn a 2019 All Star Game nod. AZ got good value out of EE and out of the trade as well.

[DJL44]

There is so much volatility in outcomes for prospects that I think a general manager needs to be evaluated on their trades like a portfolio manager and with respect to the league as a whole. Everyone will have an individual stock that they made a bad decision on but if you're providing as much or more value than an average portfolio manager then you're worth keeping.

[roger]

3 hours ago, LambchoP said:

I'd say another great trade was half a year of Nelson Cruz for rotation stalwart Joe Ryan. Plenty of bad trades too though, look at last year's deadline. Still hurts to see CES and Spencer Steer hitting so well...

Not disagreeing that that in hindsight that is a tough trade to swallow.  But take a look at how that duo is hitting this year, although the year is only approaching a quarter done.  Steer is decent, although nothing like last year.  And after getting regular playing time the first month or so, CES hasn't been in the lineup much the past week or two and is hitting well under .200.  Can they both recover as the year moves on, certainly.  But especially CES is having some serious problems.

[Jocko87]

As an aside, awhile back I looked through all the Dbacks Daily websites I could find and not one post about what they missed out on in Duran.  Even at the time of the trade, nothing.  Water under the bridge, as they say.

We can't keep everyone.  

[TwinsDr2021]

I was for the trade at the time, and will always be for trades like that (just like trading Cruz), so this trade goes in the win column for this FO.

Bringing up the Pressly trade in this article seems odd since Jorge almost 29 and spent part of 6 seasons on the Twins, and has 1 save, 15 holds and 6 blown saves, besides being cheap and having options I am not sure he would be considered anything more than a decent get at fairly high cost.

[Doctor Gast]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The article talks about the trade turning into a coup... but it really hasn't. It's turned out good, but it took 4 years for the Twins to get any return at all. The trade was always about lottery tickets, and there was a very real risk none of the players AZ gave up would ever step onto the field during an MLB game.

The Diamondbacks got a great run out of Escobar in 2018, though his great run down the stretch wasn't able to carry them into the playoffs. Still, AZ was able to extend him on the cheap while he was under team control and they watched Escobar earn a 2019 All Star Game nod. AZ got good value out of EE and out of the trade as well.

With AZ Duran might not have happened. He was a SP who got injured a lot & had control problems. Duran might not have happened in MN either if they hadn't tried him out at RP before giving up on him.

[Doctor Gast]

Arraez/ Lopez was different because it was mainly player/ player rather than EE/ Duran & Macial which was player/ prospects. I was in favor of both. I was hopeful that Macial & Duran could work out but they were lotto tickets. I really liked Duran's upside so I often would pick Balazovik over Duran in my trades at BTV. We had tried Romero (a top SP prospect) in the pen but he didn't work. So putting Duran in the pen was a gamble, Twins had Duffy & Pagan ahead of him. But the Twins got lucky & Duran flourished there. There's a lot of luck involved. I was all for the Gray trade. Cruz/ Ryan trade.

I was torn with the Prestly trade I really hated to see him go, if the Twins could have extended him I'd prefer to keep him. I question a lot of our trades & deem them mistakes from the beginning. I was in favor of the Maeda trade but LAD was pressed to trade a disgruntled Maeda & I believe we didn't have to give up Graterol. IMO all low MiLB are high risk.

[Shaitan]

Pressly was never the Twins' closer.

[LyleCole]

I remember being at a Ft Myers game and seeing Ernie De La Trinidad in the on deck circle.  They listed him at 5-9, but he wasn't even close to that height.   It is amazing he could play minor league baseball with his size but he had no power whatsoever.   

[h2oface]

16 hours ago, Shaitan said:

Pressly was never the Twins' closer.

Maybe our “team” wasn’t astute enough to make him a closer? Sure missed the call as it turned out. He was doing great at the time, just the same, and only go better. 

[bighat]

18 hours ago, roger said:

Not disagreeing that that in hindsight that is a tough trade to swallow.  But take a look at how that duo is hitting this year, although the year is only approaching a quarter done.  Steer is decent, although nothing like last year.  And after getting regular playing time the first month or so, CES hasn't been in the lineup much the past week or two and is hitting well under .200.  Can they both recover as the year moves on, certainly.  But especially CES is having some serious problems.

You're right about CES. 

I drafted him on my fantasy team this year, kind of a "sleeper pick" and was stoked to have him as my starting 1B. I played him a few weeks but dropped him - from a fantasy perspective, he's not even worth a bench spot at this point. We have a deep league too (12 teams) so if a player is showing any potential he's usually on someone's roster. 

[h2oface]

I would say we got lucky, as the get was Maciel, which was a bust. Duran also was a starter. And possibly could be an even better starter than he is a reliever! We won’t know now. It could have been/be luckier if he was a starter. Right now, he isn't even the "closer" this season. Being a reliever instead of a star ace starter certainly would not be a lucky for his pocketbook. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then. Alcala was who they were banking on to be our Duran.

According to what they pay the man, one could sense that they see Farmer as more than 6 times more important. Just because the horrible rules lets a team cheaply not pay younger more valuable players, it doesn’t stop them from doing so and making it right, either, if they only feel the justice. 

[Riverbrian]

18 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

As an aside, awhile back I looked through all the Dbacks Daily websites I could find and not one post about what they missed out on in Duran.  Even at the time of the trade, nothing.  Water under the bridge, as they say.

We can't keep everyone.  

You obviously haven't looked under an Arizona Bridge. 

No water under there. 😉

[mikelink45]

I would love to see two columns - players we have traded and players we have acquired in trades by the current FO.  

We have lost some really good players and gotten some real good ones, but there are plenty of losses too.  I know Steer and CES are most current and I think both are going to be really good players while Mahle was a big loss. As was Dyson.  

As you point out - Duran was not the big name in the trade and the ones we got did not meet potential - just like Celestino.  Predictions and projections are hard even when the sport has turned into a mathematical chess board. 

Do the trades balance out over time? SI review 2023 

 

[lunemann]

I am surprised nobody has mentioned that Duran is yet another haul from the Pierzynski trade where the Twins got Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano, and Boof Bonser. They later traded Liriano for Escobar, who then of course landed them Duran. 

[Otaknam]

These examples just show the risk and reward for trades. Sadly this FO made trades for starting pitchers with potential injury concerns that hurt position depth. But they did hit on other trades, as pointed out here, especially acquiring Joe Ryan and Duran. Escobar was popular, but wasn’t anywhere near the popularity of Arraez IMO.

[Trov]

On 5/13/2024 at 8:36 AM, LambchoP said:

I'd say another great trade was half a year of Nelson Cruz for rotation stalwart Joe Ryan. Plenty of bad trades too though, look at last year's deadline. Still hurts to see CES and Spencer Steer hitting so well...

Okay, I will give you Steer hitting well, but CES, really?  Did you even look at what CES has done?  This year CES has a slash line of .190/.220/.293 with a -0.9 bWAR being also a negative defender at first. His overall numbers are slightly better than Margot for us.  Steer is doing very well, but CES should not even be in the majors right now. Steer is doing worse since is super hot start though. 

[Trov]

8 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I would love to see two columns - players we have traded and players we have acquired in trades by the current FO.  

We have lost some really good players and gotten some real good ones, but there are plenty of losses too.  I know Steer and CES are most current and I think both are going to be really good players while Mahle was a big loss. As was Dyson.  

As you point out - Duran was not the big name in the trade and the ones we got did not meet potential - just like Celestino.  Predictions and projections are hard even when the sport has turned into a mathematical chess board. 

Do the trades balance out over time? SI review 2023 

 

Trying to do a player to player comparison in trades is a terrible way to look at trades.  I hate when people say look at who you got and what you gave up to judge a trade.  Right now people on here are comparing the CES and Steer for Mahle trade.  Yes, we got nothing really in that due to injuries and we could have used them in other trades.  However, CES and Steer were are like 4th or 5th ranked guys in our organization at their positions at the time.  They were going to need to get moved to 40 man most after that off-season I believe as well, CES may have had 1 more year at the time not sure.  However, if we did not trade them, then we have to decided, do they make 40 man or left up to rule 5?  If they make 40 man who gets cut?  The fact was we had super depth at infield at the time.  We had Lewis in wings, Lee coming up, Miranda was having great year, Arraez was doing his thing.  Polanco was still here with years of control, Julien was up and coming.  We were strong at MLB level with guys in minors ready to come up.  Would CES have played last year over anyone?  Doubtful, and he would have spent most of the year in minors.  Steer, if given the chance would have played over some, but unlike for Reds he would have not just been given playing time. 

When making trades and judging them, you should look at who we kept, as well, where they ranked in depth charts, because if they would have sat in minors for us, that is little value for major club.  Also, if you know trades that were passed on that is something to look at as well. One trade that when you look at the effect on the club as a whole that was one of worst in team history was JJ Hardy to Baltimore.  

We made the trade because we thought we had a replacement from Japan coming.  We got 2 terrible pitchers in return and the replacement was terrible as well.  JJ went on to have some great years with Baltimore, nothing super, but gold glove defense and just below league average hitting, much better than what we normally got out of SS those years. 

[jdgoin]

Ironically this trade took place my first year as a pro scout with the Dbacks. I didn’t know about it until the deal was basically done, but I wasn’t a big fan of it. I hadn’t seen Duran pitch, but I was familiar with him and didn’t like the thought of giving a potential #2 or #3 starter for the last few months of Escobar. I wasn’t sure how he would react to be traded given my history with him in Minnesota. I was fairly confident Duran’s floor was an high impact reliever. I saw Duran start in June 2019 when Ft Myers was still A+. I still felt he should start. He was athletic with a good enough delivery, etc to remain there as long as possible. Of course the pitches show dominance but needed refinement. Now he’s one of the most electric closers in the game. The fun part for me was seeing Escobar the next couple seasons in Spring Training at our facility back on the same team.

[mikelink45]

6 hours ago, Trov said:

Trying to do a player to player comparison in trades is a terrible way to look at trades.  I hate when people say look at who you got and what you gave up to judge a trade.  Right now people on here are comparing the CES and Steer for Mahle trade.  Yes, we got nothing really in that due to injuries and we could have used them in other trades.  However, CES and Steer were are like 4th or 5th ranked guys in our organization at their positions at the time.  They were going to need to get moved to 40 man most after that off-season I believe as well, CES may have had 1 more year at the time not sure.  However, if we did not trade them, then we have to decided, do they make 40 man or left up to rule 5?  If they make 40 man who gets cut?  The fact was we had super depth at infield at the time.  We had Lewis in wings, Lee coming up, Miranda was having great year, Arraez was doing his thing.  Polanco was still here with years of control, Julien was up and coming.  We were strong at MLB level with guys in minors ready to come up.  Would CES have played last year over anyone?  Doubtful, and he would have spent most of the year in minors.  Steer, if given the chance would have played over some, but unlike for Reds he would have not just been given playing time. 

When making trades and judging them, you should look at who we kept, as well, where they ranked in depth charts, because if they would have sat in minors for us, that is little value for major club.  Also, if you know trades that were passed on that is something to look at as well. One trade that when you look at the effect on the club as a whole that was one of worst in team history was JJ Hardy to Baltimore.  

We made the trade because we thought we had a replacement from Japan coming.  We got 2 terrible pitchers in return and the replacement was terrible as well.  JJ went on to have some great years with Baltimore, nothing super, but gold glove defense and just below league average hitting, much better than what we normally got out of SS those years. 

Nice response, but we also need to consider other possible trades using the same assets and that is really difficult, so it still comes down to who we lost and who we gained. 

[Danchat]

7 hours ago, Trov said:

Steer is doing worse since is super hot start though. 

Steer is a legit MLB hitter, he's hitting .810 OPS in his last 800 PAs. He may not be a great fielder, but he would be starting for the Twins if he were still here.