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jdgoin

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Everything posted by jdgoin

  1. jdgoin
    No, they would not be able to.
  2. jdgoin
    Ironically this trade took place my first year as a pro scout with the Dbacks. I didn’t know about it until the deal was basically done, but I wasn’t a big fan of it. I hadn’t seen Duran pitch, but I was familiar with him and didn’t like the thought of giving a potential #2 or #3 starter for the last few months of Escobar. I wasn’t sure how he would react to be traded given my history with him in Minnesota. I was fairly confident Duran’s floor was an high impact reliever. I saw Duran start in June 2019 when Ft Myers was still A+. I still felt he should start. He was athletic with a good enough delivery, etc to remain there as long as possible. Of course the pitches show dominance but needed refinement. Now he’s one of the most electric closers in the game. The fun part for me was seeing Escobar the next couple seasons in Spring Training at our facility back on the same team.
  3. jdgoin
    Larnach has always been an interesting case. When I first saw him in 2019 in what was then A+ Ft. Myers, he was more opposite field oriented. His natural swing took him from the SS side of 2B towards the LF. You could see in BP they were working on him being able to pull the ball more with the thought this would unlock more power in a quicker fashion. He was a hitter who possessed power metrics below the surface. He had feel for his barrel and adjustability to his swing. There was still a little contact concern at Oregon State. Now he is much more flyball-oriented to the pull side now then when I saw him early in his pro career. The power has increased greatly. His plate discipline has remained good. The contact abilities have obviously gone down hill. This was a bat that I thought would initially be a relatively high average/high OBP guy, a bunch of doubles with average HR numbers until he learned how and when to pull the ball. I'm not sure if the pull process was sped up to his detriment or not. But he doesn't look like the same hitter. He also has never really been able to stay at a level long enough to fail, figure things out, and then succeed. Some of it was Covid. Now. he will be 27 to start the season. Not sure how this one plays out but it doesn't look great with his current approach.
  4. jdgoin
    This headline almost made me spit out my coffee this morning. Nice one @Nick Nelson!
  5. jdgoin
    This headline almost made me spit out my coffee this morning. The difference between Stewart and De Leon vs the most recent three is Stewart and De Leon were starters with sufficient control numbers in the MiL. Alexy, Jensen, and Staumont have always struggled with command and control.
  6. jdgoin
    That is correct. Buchanan for Bartlett in 2002.
  7. jdgoin
    Originally this deal was supposed to include BJ Upton at The Deadline instead of Delmon Young. Tampa said they needed more time to think about it and the deadline passed. Then a lot of other things happened.
  8. jdgoin
    They've got probably #2 starter, maybe #1, in Lopez. He has multiple above-average, to plus pitches with command of them. His ability to use his mix gives him ability to get through a lineup and make adjustments. He is the only one I would have true confidence in as a playoff starter right now. Between Ober and Ryan they are probably current 4th starters. Ryan I believe has the chance to turn himself into a 3rd starter. Ryan isn't all that different than Paddack prior to Paddack's 2nd TJ. Unique approach with the fastball. Paddack had the CH, but no real breaking ball. Ober is more touch and feel. He is reliant on his command and feel for his CH. If he had a better ability to keep get the ball on the ground and avoid potential big innings you might be able to put a 3rd starter grade on him. Some people still might put a 3rd starter grade on him. However, if I am a GM I am looking to upgrade on someone like Ober at The Deadline if I believe I am a true contender. Paddack is a complete unknown right now as a starter.
  9. jdgoin
    I like how you compare analytics to the Boogeyman. I think for people in the game who don't truly understand how analytics can be integrated that's what it becomes. Some mysterious decision maker. The goal of sports analytics isn't to make a decision. The first thing a good analytics program should do is help save decision makers time. It does this by making necessary information easily and readily available. Second, a good analytics department will provide unique insight. The amount of information out there for GMs, etc., has become impossibly wide and deep to wade through. In the end, these models don't make decisions. They support the decision-making process with unique and hopefully more accurate input. But blame it on the Boogeyman if you don't agree with the decision. Plus, nobody even mentions the Blue Jays didn't score a run in that game. Making it impossible for them win, no matter what pitching decisions were made.
  10. jdgoin
    What is the OP? I thought he was more of a #3 starter throughout his career coming into the 2023 season. Most of his numbers during his career are more of a 3rd starter (or maybe a 65 if you work on a 20-80 scale rather than a 2-to-8) than an ace. Looking at his season the skills that are more sustainable are plus, not elite. His top 10 production in 2023 was driven by HR suppression more than an increase in any skill. There is a bigger chance the HRs allowed go back more towards his career average pushing up his ERA, FIP, etc. I agree with you. He probably gets 3 years and $65 to $75.
  11. jdgoin
    I'm not sure the Sonny Gray market is going to be overly robust. While I'm guessing he turns down the QO, I'm not sure about a lengthy deal, high dollar deal. In the end somebody probably gives him fewer years and a high dollar amount. But you have a 34 year old pitcher with a long injury history. He essentially put up the same numbers in 2023 as he has throughout his career. The big difference this past season was fewer HRs and more innings because of health. His other metrics are all very similar to his career numbers. K%, BB%, SwStr%, F-Strike%, etc. do not indicate to me that there is more in the tank. The addition of the cutter certainly helped with RHH but I think you're looking at more of a #3 starter than a top of the rotation guy.
  12. jdgoin
    Using $/WAR to gauge FA value can be misleading. WAR can be accumulated in a lot of ways. If you take two players who produced 2 WAR, one was mostly offensive, the other was mostly defensive/baserunning, I am not looking at giving those guys a similar deal. One player profiles as an everyday regular, the other as some time of UT/extra guy.
  13. jdgoin
    I was never a big fan of extending or giving multi-year deals to players whose value was mostly driven by their defense. We did it in Arizona with Nick Ahmed during his arb years and it was a disaster. They need to at least be able to handle the bat enough to produce close to league average offense.
  14. jdgoin
    Tingler didn't say anything of any consequence. They have at least 6 people on top of the coaching staff to help with disseminating information and put together game plans. I would believe some combo of Derek and/or Thad are talking with them multiple times per day. Many front office staff are now meeting the manager/coaches before and after the game. The manager and front office is more of a partnership now than it has ever been in most orgs.
  15. jdgoin
    Just a quick look at Miller's offense this year. No video or anything. There is more in the bat I think. He may be striking out a little too much for his future offensive production. His XBH/H% increased 10% points from 2022. There may be a little more power in there as he continues to mature & figure out what pitches he can drive. Combine that with high-level SS defense & you usually have a pretty good decent player.
  16. jdgoin
    In about 2013 I had made out lineups for Gardy vs L & vs R based on projected wOBA splits. Against RHP I had Morneau like 3rd or 4th. He was one of our best hitters vs RH based on projected wOBA. But against lefties I'm not sure he cracked the top 9, but I still put him like 7th based out of respect for Justin and knowing not having him in the lineup wasn't going to go well. Gardy and I talked about the lineups and he noticed Morenau in the 7 slot. He told me if I hit him 7th against lefties, I'll lose him against RH as well. It was something to think about. There is always more going on in a clubhouse than anybody knows.
  17. jdgoin
    This. Exactly.
  18. jdgoin
    In theory you don't want too many platoons. You want everyday players, which we know isn't always possible. Platooning should be to fill a hole and stretch resources. Not necessarily how you write out 1 through 9.
  19. jdgoin
    What you're measuring in bold is xwOBA, which Arraez is at .343 & Jeffers is .325.
  20. jdgoin
    Batting average was created to determine how often a player got a hit per at-bat. It really was made to measure the quality of a hitter.
  21. jdgoin
    Sounds like a human problem and not an analytics problem.
  22. jdgoin
    You're correct. Because analytics are not trying to measure the human element. Player makeup is someone else's job in a player evaluation/valuation. Analytics are like 1/5th of an evaluation.
  23. jdgoin
    Because in 44% of his plate appearances nothing happens.
  24. jdgoin
    The Joey Gallo Experiment Should Never Have Started.
  25. jdgoin
    I believe they will try to be "creative" and do a little bit both. Brad Steil and the pro department has been and will be busy analyzing multiple scenarios trying to maximize value. They are in a similar situation to 2017 when I was the acting pro scouting director. It's a tough spot for a pro director to be in because you have no real direction or focus. Brad is VERY smart and is up for the task is there is something that make sense for him to present to the group.
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