jdgoin

No, they would not be able to.

Ironically this trade took place my first year as a pro scout with the Dbacks. I didn’t know about it until the deal was basically done, but I wasn’t a big fan of it. I hadn’t seen Duran pitch, but I was familiar with him and didn’t like the thought of giving a potential #2 or #3 starter for the last few months of Escobar. I wasn’t sure how he would react to be traded given my history with him in Minnesota. I was fairly confident Duran’s floor was an high impact reliever. I saw Duran start in June 2019 when Ft Myers was still A+. I still felt he should start. He was athletic with a good enough delivery, etc to remain there as long as possible. Of course the pitches show dominance but needed refinement. Now he’s one of the most electric closers in the game. The fun part for me was seeing Escobar the next couple seasons in Spring Training at our facility back on the same team.

Larnach has always been an interesting case. When I first saw him in 2019 in what was then A+ Ft. Myers, he was more opposite field oriented. His natural swing took him from the SS side of 2B towards the LF. You could see in BP they were working on him being able to pull the ball more with the thought this would unlock more power in a quicker fashion. He was a hitter who possessed power metrics below the surface. He had feel for his barrel and adjustability to his swing. There was still a little contact concern at Oregon State. Now he is much more flyball-oriented to the pull side now then when I saw him early in his pro career. The power has increased greatly. His plate discipline has remained good. The contact abilities have obviously gone down hill. This was a bat that I thought would initially be a relatively high average/high OBP guy, a bunch of doubles with average HR numbers until he learned how and when to pull the ball. I'm not sure if the pull process was sped up to his detriment or not. But he doesn't look like the same hitter. He also has never really been able to stay at a level long enough to fail, figure things out, and then succeed. Some of it was Covid. Now. he will be 27 to start the season. Not sure how this one plays out but it doesn't look great with his current approach.

This headline almost made me spit out my coffee this morning. Nice one @Nick Nelson!

This headline almost made me spit out my coffee this morning. The difference between Stewart and De Leon vs the most recent three is Stewart and De Leon were starters with sufficient control numbers in the MiL. Alexy, Jensen, and Staumont have always struggled with command and control.

That is correct. Buchanan for Bartlett in 2002.

Originally this deal was supposed to include BJ Upton at The Deadline instead of Delmon Young. Tampa said they needed more time to think about it and the deadline passed. Then a lot of other things happened.

They've got probably #2 starter, maybe #1, in Lopez. He has multiple above-average, to plus pitches with command of them. His ability to use his mix gives him ability to get through a lineup and make adjustments. He is the only one I would have true confidence in as a playoff starter right now. Between Ober and Ryan they are probably current 4th starters. Ryan I believe has the chance to turn himself into a 3rd starter. Ryan isn't all that different than Paddack prior to Paddack's 2nd TJ. Unique approach with the fastball. Paddack had the CH, but no real breaking ball. Ober is more touch and feel. He is reliant on his command and feel for his CH. If he had a better ability to keep get the ball on the ground and avoid potential big innings you might be able to put a 3rd starter grade on him. Some people still might put a 3rd starter grade on him. However, if I am a GM I am looking to upgrade on someone like Ober at The Deadline if I believe I am a true contender. Paddack is a complete unknown right now as a starter.

I like how you compare analytics to the Boogeyman. I think for people in the game who don't truly understand how analytics can be integrated that's what it becomes. Some mysterious decision maker. The goal of sports analytics isn't to make a decision. The first thing a good analytics program should do is help save decision makers time. It does this by making necessary information easily and readily available. Second, a good analytics department will provide unique insight. The amount of information out there for GMs, etc., has become impossibly wide and deep to wade through. In the end, these models don't make decisions. They support the decision-making process with unique and hopefully more accurate input. But blame it on the Boogeyman if you don't agree with the decision. Plus, nobody even mentions the Blue Jays didn't score a run in that game. Making it impossible for them win, no matter what pitching decisions were made.

What is the OP? I thought he was more of a #3 starter throughout his career coming into the 2023 season. Most of his numbers during his career are more of a 3rd starter (or maybe a 65 if you work on a 20-80 scale rather than a 2-to-8) than an ace. Looking at his season the skills that are more sustainable are plus, not elite. His top 10 production in 2023 was driven by HR suppression more than an increase in any skill. There is a bigger chance the HRs allowed go back more towards his career average pushing up his ERA, FIP, etc. I agree with you. He probably gets 3 years and $65 to $75.

I'm not sure the Sonny Gray market is going to be overly robust. While I'm guessing he turns down the QO, I'm not sure about a lengthy deal, high dollar deal. In the end somebody probably gives him fewer years and a high dollar amount. But you have a 34 year old pitcher with a long injury history. He essentially put up the same numbers in 2023 as he has throughout his career. The big difference this past season was fewer HRs and more innings because of health. His other metrics are all very similar to his career numbers. K%, BB%, SwStr%, F-Strike%, etc. do not indicate to me that there is more in the tank. The addition of the cutter certainly helped with RHH but I think you're looking at more of a #3 starter than a top of the rotation guy.

Using $/WAR to gauge FA value can be misleading. WAR can be accumulated in a lot of ways. If you take two players who produced 2 WAR, one was mostly offensive, the other was mostly defensive/baserunning, I am not looking at giving those guys a similar deal. One player profiles as an everyday regular, the other as some time of UT/extra guy.

I was never a big fan of extending or giving multi-year deals to players whose value was mostly driven by their defense. We did it in Arizona with Nick Ahmed during his arb years and it was a disaster. They need to at least be able to handle the bat enough to produce close to league average offense.

Tingler didn't say anything of any consequence. They have at least 6 people on top of the coaching staff to help with disseminating information and put together game plans. I would believe some combo of Derek and/or Thad are talking with them multiple times per day. Many front office staff are now meeting the manager/coaches before and after the game. The manager and front office is more of a partnership now than it has ever been in most orgs.

Just a quick look at Miller's offense this year. No video or anything. There is more in the bat I think. He may be striking out a little too much for his future offensive production. His XBH/H% increased 10% points from 2022. There may be a little more power in there as he continues to mature & figure out what pitches he can drive. Combine that with high-level SS defense & you usually have a pretty good decent player.

The Joey Gallo Experiment Should Never Have Started.

I believe they will try to be "creative" and do a little bit both. Brad Steil and the pro department has been and will be busy analyzing multiple scenarios trying to maximize value. They are in a similar situation to 2017 when I was the acting pro scouting director. It's a tough spot for a pro director to be in because you have no real direction or focus. Brad is VERY smart and is up for the task is there is something that make sense for him to present to the group.

That’s exactly their approach, and the game in general. Which is why I feel offense sucks. He’s probably not the issue. Most hitting coaches aren’t. It’s the crappy lineups because nobody can hit.

I don't know David Popkins. I do know hitting coaches are usually the easiest to blame for a crappy lineup. This is offensive baseball in the 2020's. Elevated pull-side approach.

@Greggory Mastersonnice work putting this all together. Just a few clarifications. To be eligible for an MLB active roster, a player must be on that team’s expanded 40-man roster. This isn’t necessarily true. A player may be “Selected” to the Active Roster while not being on the 40-man, as long as a team can make room on the 40-man with a corresponding move. That selected player can then be immediately be removed from the Active Roster without being a member of the greater 40-man roster. You usually see a situation like this when a team Selects a player who is out of option to the 26-man roster. In order to remove them from the 26-man roster a Club then designates that player for assignment and asks Outright Waivers on them to free up that spot. The only time a player needs to be on the 40-man roster to be recalled to the 26-man Active Roster is in the case of the 27th man for a doubleheader. If a player is sent to the minors while also on the team’s 40-man roster, they need to have option years remaining. If the player has no option years remaining, they must be exposed to waivers to be sent down. When a player is exposed to waivers, any team willing to pay their salary can acquire their services without the player or their original team’s ability to stop the move. The claiming team must activate this player on their 26-man roster if the players is out of options. They are not able to send them to the Minor Leagues without first removing them from their 26-man roster via the waiver process. There are some nuances to these rules to be aware of. First, if a player is in the minor leagues but is not on the 40-man roster, the team is not using one of his options. However, if he is called up to the major league team, and thus added to the 40-man roster, the team can only send him back down by exposing him to waivers. This is similar to the first comment above. A player may be “Selected” to the Active Roster really at any time. If that player has Options remaining he may be Optioned as long as the Club has an open space, or can create an open space on its 40-man roster. So somebody like Dobnak could be selected to the 26-man roster and then be optioned back. This is also why sometimes a team may select a certain veteran player before a prospect. They can create a spot to get the player on the 40-man and 26-man roster (say move a player to the 60-day IL - Celestino this season), and then DFA the player they selected because they are not as concerned about losing that players to waivers. A team can request an additional option year in particular circumstances, such as long-term injury to a minor leaguer on their 40-man. A team does not need to request the 4th option year. It is automatically granted during the offseason as long as that player meets the criteria Gregory mentioned. This happens more with foreign-born players. The rules for this are complicated and involve a certain amount of active days during the Minor League season. Gilberto Celestino had one option remaining in 2022 and was demoted mid-season. However, he was recalled within days after an injury to an active roster player, and because his demotion was so short, he did not use an option year. It needs to be over 20 days. An optional assignment is charged at the end of the season assuming the player spent more than 20 days on optional assignment during that season. It does not need to be 20 consecutive days. It could be two 10-day stints or some combination to be 20 days or greater. MLB Players who can Refuse Demotion As discussed, these players have enough service time to refuse to demotion. Yes, that means Emilio Pagán will not be sent to St. Paul, no matter how hard you try. Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Joey Gallo, Sonny Gray, Max Kepler, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, Emilio Pagán, Jorge Polanco, Donovan Solano, Michael A. Taylor, Christian Vázquez If the team and Pagan felt it would be mutually beneficial for him to spend some time in the Minor Leagues, Pagan could consent to an optional assignment. A player with 5 or more years of service may not be optioned without first getting their consent like a player with less than 5 years of MLS. We had to do this with Jason Marquis a number of years ago. He missed a significant amount time in Spring Training due to a family emergency and was not ready for Opening Day. Because he was not injured we could not place him on the IL and send him on rehab assignment. We had to get him to agree to be optioned to make a start or two before recalling him. He was not charged with an optional assignment because his time was less than 20 days. 40-Man Players in their Last Option Year These players have used an option this year, and it’s their last. Come 2024, they will have no options remaining. Jordan Balazovic MLB Players with One Option Remaining These players are currently on the active roster (or injured list) and can still be sent down this year. However, if they are, they will have no options in 2024. The team could be a little more hesitant to use that final year than they would otherwise. Willi Castro, Gilberto Celestino, Jhoan Duran, Kyle Farmer, Kyle Garlick, Alex Kirilloff, Caleb Thielbar If any of these players are optioned during the 2023 season for less than a total of 20 days they will not be charged with an option and would still have an option remaining in 2024.

🤣🤣🤣

Sounds similar to a backup SL. Hitter thinks it’s a SL but it doesn’t do what it “should” do. Perkins always told me it was the most effective pitch he had, even if it was an accident.

What I find interesting is neither the Rays or Brewers are not on any of those lists on the more extreme ends. My guess here is the Rays try to maximize matchups and each of those clubs focus on squeezing every bit of what a pitcher is good at rather than remake them. In the Lopez and Pagan cases it doesn't seem like it was a pitch quality issue. The issues run deeper.

Thank you @SethStohs for taking the time to remember “Cliffy” on here. He was mentor of mine. He was a kind and generous person, with a mischievous grin and chuckle. Wicked smart. I mean REALLY smart. As we are fond of saying in the baseball world, Mike was a “good human”. He will be missed by many. But mostly by his wife, kids, and grandchildren.

It’s been that way for awhile now. There is SO much that goes into overhauling a player though. It really ends up being a quantity thing. You identify the qualities you want to target and try to fix all of them and hope one works out every once in awhile. The structure around the, pitchers is most important. You need a fixer or fixers. In the MiL and the ML. I think orgs overlook that. That was always my first question. Who is go8ng to fix them? Then the player has to have the aptitude for change. Not all of them do. These cases should be supplemental and right now it feels like MIN is almost trying to build a pen this way. Good guys can get better, but fringe guys aren’t usually becoming real guys.