Make It Official! Twins 5, Blue Jays 1: Ober Dominates, Twins Win Sixth Straight Series

[Hans Birkeland]

The Twins coughed up a six-run lead on Saturday, but thanks to Bailey Ober, there would be no such offensive onslaught from the Jays today. Carlos Santana had a big three-run home run and Max Kepler added the insurance as the Twins ruined Alek Manoah's best start in 20 months, notching their 17th victory in 20 contests.

Image courtesy of © Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Coming off one of the more surprising losses of the year in Saturday's 10-8 tilt, the Twins faced the mercurial Alek Manoah as they looked to win their sixth consecutive series. Manoah hasn't been anywhere close to good since the 2022 season concluded. What version of him would show up today? The Twins countered with Bailey Ober, who has looked the part of their missing playoff-caliber starter following his season-opening clunker against the Royals.

Box Score
Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober: 6 1/3 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 10 K (104 Pitches, 67 Strikes, 64.4%)
Home Runs: Carlos Santana (7)
Bottom 3 WPA: Santana (.388), Ober (.380), Kody Funderburk (.213)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

Manoah's issues have been largely command-based this year following a lost 2023 season in which he lost his mechanics and dealt with injuries. Towards the end of that year, there was some question about where he was as he did not report to the minor league affiliate he was assigned to to work out his mechanical issues. It turns out he was getting multiple physical ailments examined, but the lack of communication was eyebrow-raising.

This year, it appears his stuff is back and he proved that today, sitting 96 MPH with his fastball and showing good movement with his secondary pitches. In his first start of the year, against Washington, Manoah showed a lot of swing and miss but lost the strike zone in the fourth inning, resulting in a poor pitching line of 4 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 6 K with two home runs allowed. This against an interesting but still rebuilding Nationals squad.

Today Manoah allowed a sharp leadoff single to Edouard Julien but retired the next three hitters to avoid any damage. He walked Willi Castro to lead off the second, but Alex Kirilloff quickly grounded into a double play to end that threat. Christian Vazquez led off the third by reaching on an error, but Austin Martin grounded into a double play of his own to quell that uprising. Manoah's body language at this point started to resemble his Cy-Young runner up form from 2022, as he was strutting about and shouting at Twins hitters, clearly settling into a groove.

Fortunately for the Twins, Ober was just as good, and was perfect the first trip through the Blue Jays order, getting whiffs and weak contact primarily from his change-up and fastball. After a 23 pitch first inning, Ober was more efficient, finishing his six and one third innings at 103 pitches, 15 whiffs and ten strikeouts in a masterful outing. The Blue Jays approach seemed to be that they would wait Ober out, hoping for a mistake, but at his best, Ober has pinpoint command and gave the Jays absolutely nothing.

Perhaps surprised by the effectiveness of the (until today) broken Manoah, the Twins were aggressive and let the big righty get through six innings at just 57 pitches. Outside of a long fly out from Carlos Correa in the fourth and a sharp single from Carlos Santana in the fifth, the Twins had no answers offensively. That is, until the seventh.

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After Kepler reached on an error (the second of the day from thir

d baseman Ernie Clement) with one out, Castro laced a single to right. The slumping Kirilloff nearly grounded into another double play but reached first safely, and then Santana made the Blue Jays pay by rocking an 2-0 change-up, up in the zone, for a game-breaking three run home run.

After Ober got the first out of the seventh, he was relieved by Cole Sands, who gave up three base runners before he was mercifully removed in favor of Kody Funderburk, who got the final two outs, surrendering just a sacrifice fly off the bat of Danny Jansen in the process.

The Twins were not done, however, as Julien singled on a 3-0 pitch to start the eighth and stole second. Correa walked and with two outs, Kepler doubled them both home to extend the lead to four.

 

The Good:
-Santana continues to sting the ball. His numbers are still depressed by his horrid start, but he has contributed some big hits lately.
-Ober with good command is just an elite pitcher, and more often than not, he has been that pitcher this year.
-Kepler extended his hitting streak to 14 games, and added another bundle of WPA to his total, which is now at 1.11 for the year.

The Bad:
-Kirilloff is rolling over on pitches, even when ahead in the count, and is missing on velocity up in the zone. It may be time for the annual game of "Is he hurt or just slumping?"
-The Cole Sands magic from April has clearly run out, as he relieved Ober in the seventh with one out, and proceeded to allow a walk, single and hit-by-pitch before exiting in favor of Kody Funderburk.

What’s Next: Chris Paddack (4-1, 4.34 ERA) goes against Carlos Rodon (3-2, 3.56 ERA) as the Twins welcome the beloved Yankees to Target Field for a three game set. Twins fans were clamoring to sign Rodon when it appeared Correa had signed elsewhere prior to the 2023 season, but Rodon was not interested in signing with a non tough-guy team like the Twins and ended up becoming an albatross and a symbol for all that went wrong for New York last year, getting hurt and coming back to provide 14 starts with a 6.85 ERA. He has bounced back this year to some extent but looking at his underlying numbers, he has been homer prone with ineffective breaking pitches.

Postgame Interviews:

 

Bullpen Usage Chart:

	WED	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN	TOT
Jax	26	0	26	0	0	52
Durán	18	0	13	0	14	45
Funderburk	0	27	0	0	23	50
Thielbar	14	0	0	25	0	39
Staumont	0	26	0	21	0	47
Okert	0	0	0	11	0	11
Jackson	0	0	0	10	0	10
Sands	0	0	0	28	12	40

 

 

 

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[Patzky]

Ober gave us just what we needed and Santana just what we wanted.

[BH67]

Is it wrong that I expected these Twins to recover strongly from the type of loss they took on Saturday?

[mikelink45]

Ober has become our Ace at this point - time for Lopez and Ryan to take the challenge and surpass him. 

Another good game.

But Farmer, Margot, Vasquez are lost at bat and Martin seems to have lost it along with Kiriloff.  That is a lot of hitters we need to get going. 

[darwin22]

A much needed W this afternoon after yesterday's bullpen meltdown.

Adding on to the "GOOD" and "BAD" report.

Good:  Ober was outstanding!  Other than a 23 pitch 1st inning---he was in total command all day.

Santana:  Shutting up a lot of people (myself included) with ANOTHER huge HR.  Will need the occasional time off as the season progresses, especially against RH pitching, but is becoming a key hitter in a lineup that is still missing pieces and has others (Kirilloff, Margot, Vazquez, Farmer) struggling.

Kepler:  Has been on a "heater" since returning from IL stint.  Best hitter in lineup, hands down over the last 2 weeks.

Now for the BAD:

1. Kirilloff:  Since 4-29, he's in a 2-29 funk which includes a LOT weak contact.  9 K's vs. only 1 BB over that span.  Is he hurt??  As bad as Margot has been, Kirilloff has been worse over the last 2 weeks.

Solution:  If Kirilloff has an option remaining (??) is a demotion to SP possible? If so, does management consider bringing Wallner back?  Wallner's bat at SP has improved to a point, but still way too many whiffs.

2. Cole Sands:  After watching Sands today---who wants to make the argument he should remain as a viable member of this bullpen?  Over his last 7 appearances his numbers show a trip to SP should be imminent:

IP: 6/ ERA:  12.00/ WHIP: 1.67

Short term solution:   Bring up Caleb Boushley from SP.  Boushely's last 2 starts at SP have been solid: 9.67 IP/ only 3 ER allowed for a tidy 2.79 ERA.  Boushley is on 40-man roster--so a Sands demotion, would work.

Jay Jackson:

I'm sure a nice guy, but he should be DFA'ed tomorrow! Season ERA has ballooned to 6.87.  Over his last 3 appearances covering only 2.33 IP he's allowed 7 earned runs.

Solution: Promote Diego Castillo from SP.  Castillo over 14 games with the Saints, he has a 1.29 ERA; 1.93 WHIP with a good (15/6) K/BB rate.

Winning 17 of last 20 has been tremendous.

Keep it going this week boys!

[DKrz56]

I think we can back off Sands a bit. I believe this is the third day in a row that he either warmed up (multiple times three days ago, right ??) and now pitched in the game back-to-back days.... that's a lot to ask any pitcher, but particularly a middle-of-the-pen option.  

[USAFChief]

Since this game was in Canada... Today's three stars of the game, eh?

3. Kody Funderburk. Really earned a "save" today. 

2. Carlos Santana. Oye Como Va, indeed.

1. Bailey Ober. Awesome. Simply awesome performance today. 

Each of you take a lap around the rink.

 

[Patzky]

57 minutes ago, BH67 said:

Is it wrong that I expected these Twins to recover strongly from the type of loss they took on Saturday?

After they did the same in the Boston series I wasn't surprised by their answer either!

[DocBauer]

Going to pause for just a moment to lament "what might have been" in regard to a sweep.

(Sigh)

OK, moment over!

Tremendous job from Ober, but I've almost come to expect that from him. 

We've still got a lot of season left for 38yo Santana to continue to prove a lot of people wrong, including me. Is he just on a hot streak? Or can we actually get a full "normal" season from him? At this point in his career, normal would be about league average or slightly better. I'd take that for the season as a whole. 

Agree that Sands doesn't look the same at all. But he almost threw 3 days in a row when you consider how ramped he was up a few days ago without coming in to the game. Will he rebound? Or is it time to give him a re-set with the Saints?

Can we just accept the fact that, while imperfect and still missing a couple key pieces, this Twins team is actually pretty damn good?

Bring on the Yankees!

[Twinsgypsy]

 Nice recovery guys.  You have shown that you are a team can win even with some of the most important players being injured and rehabbing to get back to being healthy where they can help the team.  In addition, we need to get those that are back to contributing to make the team even better.   GO TWINS.

[Oldtimer]

Maybe bringing Varland back to get these bullpen woes squared away, might be a wise decision right now. Could slip into the rotation later if needed there.

[BH67]

16 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

We've still got a lot of season left for 38yo Santana to continue to prove a lot of people wrong, including me. Is he just on a hot streak? Or can we actually get a full "normal" season from him? At this point in his career, normal would be about league average or slightly better. I'd take that for the season as a whole. 

I would also, but how's his riff on Oye Cómo Va?

[jmlease1]

Just keep piling up those series wins, Twins. I love seeing it, especially on the road. Good job by Funderburk getting it over to Duran to finish it; getting Jax another day off seems like a good idea right now.

Ober was pretty great. Toronto battled him hard, especially early in fouling off pitches and taking him deep into counts, but he didn't get rattled and didn't let them off the hook with cheap walks. Excellent performance, and love that he got into the 7th. (Toronto only had 2 hits and drew 1 walk! love it)

I'm definitely worried about Kirilloff; he looks pretty bad at the plate right now. I don't know if he has options left but I'd definitely ask if he's fighting an injury right now. Because he sure does look like the "Kirilloff ain't healthy" Alex right now.

Big hit by Santana, who has to be around league average now. And after such a slow start that's not bad. (Margot on the other hand, still looks bad)

Good baserunning by Correa to score on Kepler's double. He ran hard the whole way and scored pretty easily, but that additional run sure helped.

[bean5302]

Dominant start by Ober, and the best game he's pitched in his career.

0.00 ERA, 0.00 FIP, 0.89 xFIP. 50% K, 0% BB

I can't imagine Kirilloff is injured and Baldelli is somehow forcing him out there when there are so few injuries for position players at the moment. I expect Kirilloff is just not the elite bat people wanted him to be, and he's slumping right now.

With his limited defensive versatility, Kirilloff is definitely putting himself on the short list to St. Paul when Lewis and Buxton come back.
 

[Parfigliano]

58 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Since this game was in Canada... Today's three stars of the game, eh?

3. Kody Funderburk. Really earned a "save" today. 

2. Carlos Santana. Oye Come Va, indeed.

1. Bailey Ober. Awesome. Simply awesome performance today. 

Each of you take a lap around the rink.

 

Really suprised Ober allowed to come out for the 7th

[Dman]

Kirilloff has been and continues to expand the zone and it isn't working out well for him.  I get MLB pitching is hard to solve but I do think some time back in AAA to learn more patience and recognition would be beneficial.

That was an amazing pitchers dual through 6 innings.  Happy to see Ober come out on top.  That was absolute domination through 6 and 1/3 innings.  Thankfully the pen held today.

I have been a Santana basher since they signed him.  Right now he is making me look foolish.  Hopefully he can keep this up as he currently is an important bat to stretch the lineup from the under performers below him.

[wabene]

2 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Really suprised Ober allowed to come out for the 7th

Pablo, Ryan and Ober have each topped 100 pitches in their last starts. Pablo was let go that far even in a blowout. If Rocco has the horses and they're rolling, he let's them pitch. Ober's previous start he was pulled with 80 some pitches, but both he and Rocco said he was struggling that day.

Edit: Oh and Paddack topped 100 too, which is the one I found a little surprising. He was far from efficient that day.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

Ober has become our Ace at this point - time for Lopez and Ryan to take the challenge and surpass him. 

Another good game.

But Farmer, Margot, Vasquez are lost at bat and Martin seems to have lost it along with Kiriloff.  That is a lot of hitters we need to get going. 

Kyle Farmer last 15 games coming into today: .269/.345/.423 OPS .768 wRC+ 122. 10.3% BB, 20.7% K rate. Horrible start, but he's been solid the past couple weeks.

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, Dman said:

Kirilloff has been and continues to expand the zone and it isn't working out well for him.  I get MLB pitching is hard to solve but I do think some time back in AAA to learn more patience and recognition would be beneficial.

That was an amazing pitchers dual through 6 innings.  Happy to see Ober come out on top.  That was absolute domination through 6 and 1/3 innings.  Thankfully the pen held today.

I have been a Santana basher since they signed him.  Right now he is making me look foolish.  Hopefully he can keep this up as he currently is an important bat to stretch the lineup from the under performers below him.

All this. 

[Doctor Gast]

A magnificent game by Ober.

[Kummel]

Santana racking up RBIs!!!   

We have seen Kirilloff go from having a sweet swing to looking rough.  In other years it turned out he was injured.   I wonder what's up this time.

When there are runners on and Vasquez is up, I tend to fast forward (I realize i'm asssuming "automatic out" at this point).     

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, BH67 said:

I would also, but how's his riff on Oye Cómo Va?

"I'm winning and I don't intend, on losing again.."

[jimbo92107]

When Bailey Ober is on his game, he really does dominate. He gets into a rhythm where it looks easy, like he's just flipping the ball up there, but it's buzzing around the strike zone. That long-armed heater measures 92, but he's letting it go at the edge of the mound, which makes it look like it's upper 90's. 

Since he came up through the Twins system, I had the popular skepticism that something would go wrong. It did, a little, but now he just looks like a big, strong, reliable starter. A good lesson for all of us. Despite all that can go wrong, sometimes things can go right. Good for you, Mister Ober. Please, continue.

[Fatbat]

Ober is making big steps to locking down some playoff games. Julien is looking like a future gold glove candidate. Sands  needs 3 days of rest and Santana has a full tank left in his game. 

[wabene]

Just now, Fatbat said:

Ober is making big steps to locking down some playoff games. Julien is looking like a future gold glove candidate. Sands  needs 3 days of rest and Santana has a full tank left in his game. 

I don't know about a gold glove, lol, but he has continued to improve.

[Fatbat]

3 minutes ago, wabene said:

I don't know about a gold glove, lol, but he has continued to improve.

Future candidate. He says he wants one so I wouldn't bet against him. 

[Danchat]

Kinda funny how a year ago Ober couldn't fit into the rotation for awhile despite the fact we knew he could hang in the majors. His career numbers in the majors are really strong, sub 1.1 WHIP and 3.76 ERA before this game. He is a quality starter through and through.

I was surprised they didn't call up a reliever from AAA before the game, whether it be Boushley or Henriquez in case they needed a long man. Jackson can be DFA'd and Sands is regressing back into who we thought he was.

[Whitey333]

Very impressive win for the Twins.  Ober continues to be solid.  I've never been a Sands fan but he needs a break.  Try not to have him pitch for a few days.  Not sure about Kiriloff.  He seems to hit the wall off and on throughout the season.  Is it an injury, just a slump?  Not sure what they should do with him.  Maybe he will snap out of it.  But to be honest there are 3 or 4 other players on the team that have been struggling worse.  Enjoy the day off Monday and let's go after the Yankeed.  Go Twins!

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

Ober is making big steps to locking down some playoff games. Julien is looking like a future gold glove candidate. Sands  needs 3 days of rest and Santana has a full tank left in his game. 

Hardly any of the names you just mentioned were considered key pieces of the 2024 Twins. Maye Julien. The nature of the team or the best laid plans.. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

4 hours ago, DKrz56 said:

I think we can back off Sands a bit. I believe this is the third day in a row that he either warmed up (multiple times three days ago, right ??) and now pitched in the game back-to-back days.... that's a lot to ask any pitcher, but particularly a middle-of-the-pen option.  

If Sands situation was evident to us "common fans", why did Rocco put Sands in? The long warm up, then the usage yesterday and now disaster for Sands. Ober had pitched a little over 100 pitches, however he was cruising. I would have let Ober keep pitching until the end of the inning, or someone got another hit off of him or he walked someone. I said so at the time as Sands jogged in from the bullpen.