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Coming off one of the more surprising losses of the year in Saturday's 10-8 tilt, the Twins faced the mercurial Alek Manoah as they looked to win their sixth consecutive series. Manoah hasn't been anywhere close to good since the 2022 season concluded. What version of him would show up today? The Twins countered with Bailey Ober, who has looked the part of their missing playoff-caliber starter following his season-opening clunker against the Royals.
Box Score
Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober: 6 1/3 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 10 K (104 Pitches, 67 Strikes, 64.4%)
Home Runs: Carlos Santana (7)
Bottom 3 WPA: Santana (.388), Ober (.380), Kody Funderburk (.213)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):
Manoah's issues have been largely command-based this year following a lost 2023 season in which he lost his mechanics and dealt with injuries. Towards the end of that year, there was some question about where he was as he did not report to the minor league affiliate he was assigned to to work out his mechanical issues. It turns out he was getting multiple physical ailments examined, but the lack of communication was eyebrow-raising.
This year, it appears his stuff is back and he proved that today, sitting 96 MPH with his fastball and showing good movement with his secondary pitches. In his first start of the year, against Washington, Manoah showed a lot of swing and miss but lost the strike zone in the fourth inning, resulting in a poor pitching line of 4 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 6 K with two home runs allowed. This against an interesting but still rebuilding Nationals squad.
Today Manoah allowed a sharp leadoff single to Edouard Julien but retired the next three hitters to avoid any damage. He walked Willi Castro to lead off the second, but Alex Kirilloff quickly grounded into a double play to end that threat. Christian Vazquez led off the third by reaching on an error, but Austin Martin grounded into a double play of his own to quell that uprising. Manoah's body language at this point started to resemble his Cy-Young runner up form from 2022, as he was strutting about and shouting at Twins hitters, clearly settling into a groove.
Fortunately for the Twins, Ober was just as good, and was perfect the first trip through the Blue Jays order, getting whiffs and weak contact primarily from his change-up and fastball. After a 23 pitch first inning, Ober was more efficient, finishing his six and one third innings at 103 pitches, 15 whiffs and ten strikeouts in a masterful outing. The Blue Jays approach seemed to be that they would wait Ober out, hoping for a mistake, but at his best, Ober has pinpoint command and gave the Jays absolutely nothing.
Perhaps surprised by the effectiveness of the (until today) broken Manoah, the Twins were aggressive and let the big righty get through six innings at just 57 pitches. Outside of a long fly out from Carlos Correa in the fourth and a sharp single from Carlos Santana in the fifth, the Twins had no answers offensively. That is, until the seventh.
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After Kepler reached on an error (the second of the day from thir
d baseman Ernie Clement) with one out, Castro laced a single to right. The slumping Kirilloff nearly grounded into another double play but reached first safely, and then Santana made the Blue Jays pay by rocking an 2-0 change-up, up in the zone, for a game-breaking three run home run.
After Ober got the first out of the seventh, he was relieved by Cole Sands, who gave up three base runners before he was mercifully removed in favor of Kody Funderburk, who got the final two outs, surrendering just a sacrifice fly off the bat of Danny Jansen in the process.
The Twins were not done, however, as Julien singled on a 3-0 pitch to start the eighth and stole second. Correa walked and with two outs, Kepler doubled them both home to extend the lead to four.
The Good:
-Santana continues to sting the ball. His numbers are still depressed by his horrid start, but he has contributed some big hits lately.
-Ober with good command is just an elite pitcher, and more often than not, he has been that pitcher this year.
-Kepler extended his hitting streak to 14 games, and added another bundle of WPA to his total, which is now at 1.11 for the year.
The Bad:
-Kirilloff is rolling over on pitches, even when ahead in the count, and is missing on velocity up in the zone. It may be time for the annual game of "Is he hurt or just slumping?"
-The Cole Sands magic from April has clearly run out, as he relieved Ober in the seventh with one out, and proceeded to allow a walk, single and hit-by-pitch before exiting in favor of Kody Funderburk.
What’s Next: Chris Paddack (4-1, 4.34 ERA) goes against Carlos Rodon (3-2, 3.56 ERA) as the Twins welcome the beloved Yankees to Target Field for a three game set. Twins fans were clamoring to sign Rodon when it appeared Correa had signed elsewhere prior to the 2023 season, but Rodon was not interested in signing with a non tough-guy team like the Twins and ended up becoming an albatross and a symbol for all that went wrong for New York last year, getting hurt and coming back to provide 14 starts with a 6.85 ERA. He has bounced back this year to some extent but looking at his underlying numbers, he has been homer prone with ineffective breaking pitches.
Postgame Interviews:
Bullpen Usage Chart:
| WED | THU | FRI | SAT | SUN | TOT | |
| Jax | 26 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 52 |
| Durán | 18 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 14 | 45 |
| Funderburk | 0 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 50 |
| Thielbar | 14 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 39 |
| Staumont | 0 | 26 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 47 |
| Okert | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11 |
| Jackson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| Sands | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 12 | 40 |
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