Week in Review: From Slumping to Streaking

[Nick Nelson]

The Minnesota Twins did everything they needed to do against a soft portion of the schedule, rallying back to relevance with seven straight wins against the lowly White Sox and Angels. 

It's already been an emotional roller coaster, but one month into the season, the Twins are basically back to a blank slate.

Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 4/22 through Sun, 4/28
***
Record Last Week: 7-0 (Overall: 14-13)
Run Differential Last Week: +33 (Overall: +8)
Standing: 4th Place in AL Central (4.5 GB)

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 21 | MIN 7, CWS 0: Paddack, Twins Get Right Against White Sox
Game 22 | MIN 6, CWS 5: Buxton, Kirilloff Spark Comeback in Ninth
Game 23 | MIN 6, CWS 3: Castro's Homer Keys Third Straight Win
Game 24 | MIN 6, CWS 3: Late Power Explosion Tilts Scales in Sweep
Game 25 | MIN 5, LAA 3: Ober's Excellence Spearheads Another Victory
Game 26 | MIN 16, LAA 5: Bats Go Off in Blowout Win to Extend Streak
Game 27 | MIN 11, LAA 5: Twins Stay Hot, Sweep Angels in Anaheim

IF YOU'D RATHER LISTEN TO THE WEEK IN REVIEW THAN READ IT, YOU CAN NOW FIND IT IN PODCAST FORM. FIND THE LATEST EPISODE HERE. ALSO AVAILABLE ON APPLE AND SPOTIFY.

NEWS & NOTES

Homegrown talents Matt Wallner and Louie Varland played key roles in elevating the Twins as rookies last year. This year, both were been prime culprits in the team's early struggles, and now both have been sent down within weeks of the season starting. Shortly after Wallner was optioned to Triple-A amidst a severe season-opening slump, Varland joined him in St. Paul following a nightmare outing last Sunday against Detroit. 

While these demotions might seem rash in some respects, both players have seen their flaws exploited to the max in the first month of the season. However long it takes, getting them both right will be critical to overcoming the team's deficiencies in the lineup and back of the rotation. 

For now, they're hoping Simeon Woods Richardson can be a salve for the latter. He rotated onto the Twins pitching staff following an interim bullpen stint from Ronny Henriquez, who initially replaced Varland on the roster. Woods Richardson looked good once again in his return on Thursday against the White Sox (5 IP, 2 ER, 6 K, 1 BB).

Offensively, the Twins got back a key piece in Max Kepler, who immediately made his presence felt, driving in three runs on Monday after being activated from the injured list. Jair Camargo returned to Triple-A in a corresponding move. Kepler went 8-for-17 in a successful week that lent credence to the idea that, as the Twins start getting back their injured stars, they'll be okay. On that note, Carlos Correa's return appears imminent after he took ground balls defensively and batting practice on the field in Anaheim. 

It would be no surprise to see both Correa and Jhoan Durán join the Twins in Chicago for their next series against the White Sox, or at the latest, their next home stand starting on Friday. Durán made his second rehab appearance in St. Paul on Saturday and looked great, reaching 102 MPH with his fastball as he revs toward a 2024 MLB debut.

 

HIGHLIGHTS

Last week in this column, we lamented the Twins' ongoing struggles but left on a relatively optimistic parting note: regression (or progression) was on the way. It had to be. The ebbs and flows of baseball performance – along with key players starting to return from injury, and a softening schedule – suggested that the pendulum was about to swing the other way for this team. That is precisely what happened in the past week.

Out of their first 20 games, there were only three in which Minnesota scored five or more runs, and three in which they collected 10 or more hits. They did each of those things in all seven of their games last week, clubbing the White Sox and Angels into submission with 57 runs on 89 hits, including 13 homers. After batting .195 as a team through 20 games to start 7-13, the Twins posted a .347 average in these last seven while going 7-0.

 

Yes, Kepler's return provided a critical boost, but the lineup saw plenty of resurgent performances to help them finally get on track. Some key standouts, all of whom were named as laggards in this column a week ago:

• Embattled Carlos Santana finally started to show some life offensively, homering in three straight games en route to an 8-for-28 week with nine RBIs. Now that's the hitter the Twins hoped they were getting. For a little while at least, the "cooked" narratives can rest. Instead, Santana is now cooking.
• Willi Castro notched five multi-hit games, after totaling zero in his 20. Castro is still showing no discipline at the plate (six strikeouts, zero walks in 26 plate appearances) but he's starting to connect with some pitches and deliver in big spots. His 13-for-31 (.371) week included a pivotal three-run homer on Wednesday.
• Even Christian Vázquez (8-for-16) and Kyle Farmer (reached based four times on Saturday, doubled on Sunday) showed positive signs to fuel the positive vibes. 

 

Santana, Castro, Vázquez, Farmer: These are the crucial depth pieces that the front office invested heavily in, figuring these veterans would provide a stable floor in the event of multiple stars being sidelined. It took some time, but now this group is starting to look up to the task, establishing some length in a lineup that is improving at the top thanks largely to Edouard Julien.

The second baseman was utterly monstrous at the plate last week, tallying nine hits (including three home runs and three doubles) in 22 at-bats, and he continues to look mighty impressive defensively. Julien is playing at an All-Star level, showing no hints of succumbing to the sophomore regression that some feared.

 

Also saying "no" to regression: Ryan Jeffers, who now finds himself as a clear focal point of the offense. Jeffers batted leadoff three times and third twice in the past week, living up this billing by going 11-for-25 with two homers and five RBIs. Understandably, Rocco Baldelli is inclined to get Jeffers in the lineup everyday, using him at DH when he's not catching. Hopefully the slugging catcher can hold up physically against the punishment he's taking both behind the plate and in the batter's box. Jeffers was hit by pitches three times last week, and his total of seven HBPs leads the league.

While the offense's awakening was certainly the banner headline of the week, the pitching staff also deserves credit for making the most of this newfound run support. Chris Paddack struck out 12 and walked one over 12 innings between two starts, allowing just one homer. Bailey Ober became the first Twins starter to pitch into the eighth on Friday night against the Angels, whom he held to two runs on three hits. Joe Ryan piled up eight strikeouts and notched his first win of the season on Wednesday. Ryan's K-BB% ranks second in the majors behind Pittsburgh's rookie phenom Jared Jones. 

 

The bullpen was great as usual, with too many strong performers to name. Collectively, Twins relievers posted a 1.90 ERA. Griffin Jax picked up two saves while bulletproof Brock Stewart rattled off two more scoreless innings. In 39 total innings with the Twins, Stewart has a 0.46 ERA and 35% K-rate with only one home run allowed. What a find.

Yeah, the White Sox and Angels are bad, and in Chicago's case, "bad" might not even do it justice. But fattening up on soft competition is what good teams do, and it's something that this Twins team desperately needed to do in the past week. Mission accomplished ... and then some.

LOWLIGHTS

It's tough to find too many low points in a week where the Twins didn't lose a single game, and were rarely at risk of doing so. That is not a complaint.  

I suppose Pablo López qualifies as a relative blemish on an otherwise fantastic week for the Twins. He was the only starter to have issues with the White Sox, lasting just four innings on Tuesday and raising some alarm with diminished velocity late in the outing. In his next turn, on Sunday, López appeared well on his way to erasing any concerns, taking a perfect game into the fifth before the wheels fell off and he gave up four runs in the blink of an eye, ending his day. 

The velocity was back to normal and López was extremely effective for most of the start, so Sunday's game can be viewed as relatively encouraging, even if it wasn't good. I would not have guessed after their respective first starts that, one month into the season, Ober would have a significantly better ERA (4.21) than López (4.83)

 

One of the only hitters who didn't partake in the offensive production fest was newcomer Austin Martin. He had a good game on Sunday, drawing two walks and driving in two runs with a single, but Martin otherwise was 2-for-18 with six strikeouts. He has had a fairly impressive MLB debut, from my view, but his overall production has been below replacement level. He's put 50 balls in play and is still looking for his first barrel. 

Normally I wouldn't make much out of a minor slump like this from a rookie still learning the ropes, but with a personnel crunch afoot, it may not bode well for Martin.

TRENDING STORYLINE

Roster moves are coming, and they will present some tough decisions. It appears that Correa is lined up to be activated for the White Sox series on Monday. Martin and José Miranda are the main candidates to be optioned and make room for Correa on the roster. While I think Martin has been more valuable, I also think the Twins care more about getting him everyday reps, whereas using the more fully-formed Miranda in a part-time role is less of an issue. Castro, who will be freed up from shortstop by Correa's return, can more or less fill the same role as Martin off the bench.

Then there is Durán, who may also get activated on Monday, or Friday at the latest barring a setback. Assuming no further injuries emerge in the bullpen, who forfeits their spot to make room? Kody Funderburk, now the team's third lefty following Caleb Thielbar's return, is likely in the crosshairs simply by virtue of having options, despite pitching well. 

Justin Topa, currently rehabbing in St. Paul, is not far behind Durán, and could force an even more difficult decision. A good problem to have, but still a quandary. Matt Bowman would be the obvious candidate, but in demoting him you'd risk losing him. Bowman has looked solid and the Twins front office hates to lose any quality depth if they can avoid it. You wonder if Cole Sands – who has looked fantastic – could be sent down to stretch out as a starter, bolstering Minnesota's skimpy rotation depth. Aaron Gleeman mentioned in The Athletic that he asked both Baldelli and Derek Falvey about this, "and they each indicated that Sands stretching back out as a starter could be a possibility if the rotation depth erodes much further."

LOOKING AHEAD

A week of multi-colored socks lies ahead. The Twins will head to Chicago for another go against the worst team in baseball, albeit one that just swept the down-bad Tampa Bay Rays over the weekend. From there, the Twins return home to face a more formidable (but still not great) Red Sox team. 

MONDAY, 4/29: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Joe Ryan v. LHP Garrett Crochet
TUESDAY, 4/30: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Simeon Woods Richardson v. RHP Michael Soroka
WEDNESDAY, 5/1: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Bailey Ober v. RHP Chris Flexen
FRIDAY, 5/3: RED SOX @ TWINS – RHP Josh Winckowski v. RHP Chris Paddack
SATURDAY, 5/4: RED SOX @ TWINS – RHP Tanner Houck v. RHP Pablo Lopez
SUNDAY, 5/5: RED SOX @ TWINS – TBD V. RHP Joe Ryan

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[Joe A. Preusser]

What a great week.  We only need 2 of 3 to meet my 5-1 road trip prediction, but another sweep seems very possible.  

Keep it rolling boys, make hay while the sun shines.

[LastOnePicked]

I'm going to petition the Commissioner's Office to see if I can get a few more games against the Chisox and the Angels put into the Twins schedule this year.

[David HK]

It's really great to get on track with this White Sox/ Angels stretch.  It may seem like an easy stretch, but none of those games are a given; you still have to play them out. 

3 more with Sox, then we're going to have to start playing professional teams again.  Hopefully, we can keep some momentum.

*In Bert's immortal words, it's nice to get back to "five hunnerd."

[Fatbat]

Its a marathon.  We need to get some guys back from injury to become the best we can be. 

[FlyingFinn]

Is Julien okay? Read that he had an issue in the 9th inning. You made a nice summation of the possible transactions this week. Assuming Julien isn't a possibility to hit the IL.

[ashbury]

10 or 15 more weeks like this past one should put us in good position for a wild card at least.

[akmanak]

Don't care who we win against, we are back to .500 and show signs of life. We just have to get healthy, fire the hitting coach, get two more decent starts, get a decent utility player who can bat above .100 and a decent RP. 

 

Almost there.

[Jocko87]

Are they as bad as they looked in the first 20 games?  No

Are they as good as they looked against the Pale hose and Angles?  Also no.

Would I like to see this weeks version of the squad against that tough opening schedule?  Yes, yes I would. 

Obviously, they will want to be at full strength when they see the Brewers, Orioles and Dodgers again.  But the team we have seen lately is playing at a level that can complete with anyone.  The at bats are night and day different.  Bad pitching?  Maybe a little but the approach has been miles better.

Ultimately the depth did what they needed it to do.  .500 when Correa and Duran return should keep them from pressing, just do what they do.  It's really stunning how much talent is coming as reinforcements soon.  The Guardians had everything go right for a month, and what did it get them?

Viva la sausage!

[David HK]

Just a random thought in the weekend's reflection-

HOLY MOLEY did the Angels play  BAAAAAAD defense!  Jo Adell in particular really brought some lumber, but in NHL terms, his overall +- had to be no more than 1!

Wow, those pitchers better be taken out to Red Lobster for a surf and turf by their fielders this week.

[mnfireman]

This weeks hitting stats:

[mnfireman]

This weeks pitching stats:

[Schmoeman5]

50 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

The Guardians had everything go right for a month, and what did it get them?

Viva la sausage!

The Guardians who lost their #1 starter in week 1? Still managed to get off to a really good start. I don't think they're going away anytime soon. Still the Twins are headed in the right direction with help coming.

[Jocko87]

4 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

The Guardians who lost their #1 starter in week 1? Still managed to get off to a really good start. I don't think they're going away anytime soon. Still the Twins are headed in the right direction with help coming.

Yeah, true. I guess not everything perfectly right.  Forgot all about that guy.  Is nice the Twins injuries are not long term for the most part.

[h2oface]

Love the tables/stat charts @mnfireman. Thanks for going to the effort to post them for all of us to see.

The most important stat for relievers, imo, is inherited runs scored, and it is usually nowhere to be found in the tables. After all, that is what they are brought into the game for, relief, and not to let the runners score. Sure, it is not their personal earned run when they come in and immediately give up the hit that lets the runners score, but that is their main job, and the stat is most important to see if they can really provide relief. 

[Doctor Gast]

 Pretty impressive week even though it was against bad teams playing bad & we have another one of these series coming up. So I hope they can maintain that intensity & not let up. It looks like the Twins' hitters have become better by adjusting to the league's steady diet of off-speed & modifying their "all or nothing" approach. Have been pleasantly surprised, especially with Larnach & Kepler who have in the past had trouble adjusting to a new swing. I'd be very interested in how all this translates to better teams after we finish with CWS. 

I'm concerned with Lopez & Paddack with their stuff deplenishing after pitching X amount of innings. We need both of them pitching at their peak. Maybe dial them back a bit. Our BP has been pretty good in the absence of Duran, Theilbar & Topa, they'll all be up soon plus Alcala deserves time in the MLB. Varland is wasting his bullets in AAA when he could be blowing the hitters away in the MLB pen. Bring him up in long relief so we can dial back some SPs after all this time of trying to over-compensate for our poor hitting.

Correa will be back soon which vastly improves our INF, our line-up & especially putting Farmer back on his normal diet of LHPs. The extreme diet of RHPs has really thrown him off that even he had trouble even hitting LHPs.

[Riverbrian]

The White Sox no longer have the worst record in baseball. 

The Marlins are the new leaders. 

[Patzky]

9 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Is Julien okay? Read that he had an issue in the 9th inning. You made a nice summation of the possible transactions this week. Assuming Julien isn't a possibility to hit the IL.

They'll likely sit him with the Lefty Crochet pitching for Chicago tonight.. hope it's nothing but as Twins fans we always know better..

[bighat]

We saw entertaining baseball this week! Finally!

Nice to see Austin Martin playing regularly. He has 6 walks so far this year and 12 strikeouts, which is at least average plate discipline. Great to see him hustling around the bases yesterday! The kid filled up the stat sheet. 

This week the Twins team batting average has rocketed up to #19 in the league after being stuck in 29th for the entire year.

[MABB1959]

Great week!  I hesitate to get too excited just because a let down would be depressing.

I think they should keep Martin up for the year.  

[Doctor Wu]

12 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

I'm going to petition the Commissioner's Office to see if I can get a few more games against the Chisox and the Angels put into the Twins schedule this year.

I'll second the motion! Yes, a very nice turnaround this week, but we also need to remember that we were facing the White Sox and the Angels, both teams that are/were struggling worse than we were. Nevertheless, lots of positive signs this week, so let's hope the hits keep coming!

[Doctor Wu]

1 hour ago, bighat said:

Nice to see Austin Martin playing regularly. He has 6 walks so far this year and 12 strikeouts, which is at least average plate discipline. Great to see him hustling around the bases yesterday! The kid filled up the stat sheet. 

I'm also pleased by what I've seen from Austin Martin thus far. With more experience and games under his belt he'll be looking like a player worth keeping. 

[Riverbrian]

11 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

I'll second the motion! Yes, a very nice turnaround this week, but we also need to remember that we were facing the White Sox and the Angels, both teams that are/were struggling worse than we were. Nevertheless, lots of positive signs this week, so let's hope the hits keep coming!

I appreciate your last sentence... It felt good to watch them light up the scoreboard. I hope it continues but Ups become Downs and Downs become Ups in this game. 

Every team can beat any team. After 162 games... All teams are going to win a lot of games and they are all going to lose a lot of games. Teams try to win more than they lose.

We really don't need to remember that we were facing the White Sox and the Angels in order to diminish a 7 game winning streak. Take your 7 game winning streak... put it on your pocket, feel good and try to make it 8.  

The White Sox just swept the Rays. Did the White Sox all of sudden starting playing good? Did the team get a boost of winning juice while they were sleeping last Thursday or did the Rays have something to do with the result? 

Is that it for the Rays now? If they can't beat the White Sox should they be making October Vacation plans?  

It sounds nice to let the Twins face the White Sox and Angels more often? Be careful what you wish for... lest you might get it. When the baseball gods wish to punish us... they answer our prayers.  😄

[JD-TWINS]

11 hours ago, akmanak said:

Don't care who we win against, we are back to .500 and show signs of life. We just have to get healthy, fire the hitting coach, get two more decent starts, get a decent utility player who can bat above .100 and a decent RP. 

 

Almost there.

Vazquez to .250 - Castro to .250 - Julien to .236 - Kepler to .231 - Buxton to .244 ………All were under .200 just 6-10 days ago, Kepler started the year 1-20. Same hitting coach now as on April 18th - same hitting coach as August of ‘23 when team was tearing it up collectively……..players gotta execute.

“…and a decent RP” = relief pitcher? Pen stacks up pretty well against anybody’s and two of Top 4 guys have been on IL whole season.

Health would be/will be nice. Correa this week. Lewis in 6 weeks. 

[PDX Twin]

4 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'm concerned with Lopez & Paddack with their stuff deplenishing

Microsoft doesn't think that's a word, but I love it! An unused, but perfectly apt antonym.

I "collect" such words: "exjoy," "reckful," "ept," "uncluding," and "exportant" are other examples.

[Doctor Gast]

30 minutes ago, PDX Twin said:

Microsoft doesn't think that's a word, but I love it! An unused, but perfectly apt antonym.

I "collect" such words: "exjoy," "reckful," "ept," "uncluding," and "exportant" are other examples.

You should see me in portuguese especially in the beginning, I invented a lot of words

[bean5302]

13 hours ago, David HK said:

Just a random thought in the weekend's reflection-

HOLY MOLEY did the Angels play  BAAAAAAD defense!  Jo Adell in particular really brought some lumber, but in NHL terms, his overall +- had to be no more than 1!

Wow, those pitchers better be taken out to Red Lobster for a surf and turf by their fielders this week.

I was at the Pirates at Giants game Saturday night in San Francisco. Bad defense was the name of the game. SF fielders had multiple errors scored as "hits" and literally dropped balls on easy double plays. It was rough to watch.

[KBJ1]

Pleased with Martin's showing so far.

Better than Margot in every aspect and $4M cheaper. Trade him & bring Martin back.

Never thought I'd say it, but Sands stretching out to be a starter may make sense.

 

[Shaitan]

Sending down Sands (to stretch him out) now would be pretty insulting to SWR. Though I'll note that the quote says "if it's more depleted".

[Shaitan]