Week in Review: From Slumping to Streaking

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 4/22 through Sun, 4/28
***
Record Last Week: 7-0 (Overall: 14-13)
Run Differential Last Week: +33 (Overall: +8)
Standing: 4th Place in AL Central (4.5 GB)

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 21 | MIN 7, CWS 0: Paddack, Twins Get Right Against White Sox
Game 22 | MIN 6, CWS 5: Buxton, Kirilloff Spark Comeback in Ninth
Game 23 | MIN 6, CWS 3: Castro's Homer Keys Third Straight Win
Game 24 | MIN 6, CWS 3: Late Power Explosion Tilts Scales in Sweep
Game 25 | MIN 5, LAA 3: Ober's Excellence Spearheads Another Victory
Game 26 | MIN 16, LAA 5: Bats Go Off in Blowout Win to Extend Streak
Game 27 | MIN 11, LAA 5: Twins Stay Hot, Sweep Angels in Anaheim

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NEWS & NOTES

Homegrown talents Matt Wallner and Louie Varland played key roles in elevating the Twins as rookies last year. This year, both were been prime culprits in the team's early struggles, and now both have been sent down within weeks of the season starting. Shortly after Wallner was optioned to Triple-A amidst a severe season-opening slump, Varland joined him in St. Paul following a nightmare outing last Sunday against Detroit. 

While these demotions might seem rash in some respects, both players have seen their flaws exploited to the max in the first month of the season. However long it takes, getting them both right will be critical to overcoming the team's deficiencies in the lineup and back of the rotation. 

For now, they're hoping Simeon Woods Richardson can be a salve for the latter. He rotated onto the Twins pitching staff following an interim bullpen stint from Ronny Henriquez, who initially replaced Varland on the roster. Woods Richardson looked good once again in his return on Thursday against the White Sox (5 IP, 2 ER, 6 K, 1 BB).

Offensively, the Twins got back a key piece in Max Kepler, who immediately made his presence felt, driving in three runs on Monday after being activated from the injured list. Jair Camargo returned to Triple-A in a corresponding move. Kepler went 8-for-17 in a successful week that lent credence to the idea that, as the Twins start getting back their injured stars, they'll be okay. On that note, Carlos Correa's return appears imminent after he took ground balls defensively and batting practice on the field in Anaheim. 

It would be no surprise to see both Correa and Jhoan Durán join the Twins in Chicago for their next series against the White Sox, or at the latest, their next home stand starting on Friday. Durán made his second rehab appearance in St. Paul on Saturday and looked great, reaching 102 MPH with his fastball as he revs toward a 2024 MLB debut.

HIGHLIGHTS

Last week in this column, we lamented the Twins' ongoing struggles but left on a relatively optimistic parting note: regression (or progression) was on the way. It had to be. The ebbs and flows of baseball performance – along with key players starting to return from injury, and a softening schedule – suggested that the pendulum was about to swing the other way for this team. That is precisely what happened in the past week.

Out of their first 20 games, there were only three in which Minnesota scored five or more runs, and three in which they collected 10 or more hits. They did each of those things in all seven of their games last week, clubbing the White Sox and Angels into submission with 57 runs on 89 hits, including 13 homers. After batting .195 as a team through 20 games to start 7-13, the Twins posted a .347 average in these last seven while going 7-0.

Yes, Kepler's return provided a critical boost, but the lineup saw plenty of resurgent performances to help them finally get on track. Some key standouts, all of whom were named as laggards in this column a week ago:

• Embattled Carlos Santana finally started to show some life offensively, homering in three straight games en route to an 8-for-28 week with nine RBIs. Now that's the hitter the Twins hoped they were getting. For a little while at least, the "cooked" narratives can rest. Instead, Santana is now cooking.
• Willi Castro notched five multi-hit games, after totaling zero in his 20. Castro is still showing no discipline at the plate (six strikeouts, zero walks in 26 plate appearances) but he's starting to connect with some pitches and deliver in big spots. His 13-for-31 (.371) week included a pivotal three-run homer on Wednesday.
• Even Christian Vázquez (8-for-16) and Kyle Farmer (reached based four times on Saturday, doubled on Sunday) showed positive signs to fuel the positive vibes. 

Santana, Castro, Vázquez, Farmer: These are the crucial depth pieces that the front office invested heavily in, figuring these veterans would provide a stable floor in the event of multiple stars being sidelined. It took some time, but now this group is starting to look up to the task, establishing some length in a lineup that is improving at the top thanks largely to Edouard Julien.

The second baseman was utterly monstrous at the plate last week, tallying nine hits (including three home runs and three doubles) in 22 at-bats, and he continues to look mighty impressive defensively. Julien is playing at an All-Star level, showing no hints of succumbing to the sophomore regression that some feared.

Also saying "no" to regression: Ryan Jeffers, who now finds himself as a clear focal point of the offense. Jeffers batted leadoff three times and third twice in the past week, living up this billing by going 11-for-25 with two homers and five RBIs. Understandably, Rocco Baldelli is inclined to get Jeffers in the lineup everyday, using him at DH when he's not catching. Hopefully the slugging catcher can hold up physically against the punishment he's taking both behind the plate and in the batter's box. Jeffers was hit by pitches three times last week, and his total of seven HBPs leads the league.

While the offense's awakening was certainly the banner headline of the week, the pitching staff also deserves credit for making the most of this newfound run support. Chris Paddack struck out 12 and walked one over 12 innings between two starts, allowing just one homer. Bailey Ober became the first Twins starter to pitch into the eighth on Friday night against the Angels, whom he held to two runs on three hits. Joe Ryan piled up eight strikeouts and notched his first win of the season on Wednesday. Ryan's K-BB% ranks second in the majors behind Pittsburgh's rookie phenom Jared Jones. 

The bullpen was great as usual, with too many strong performers to name. Collectively, Twins relievers posted a 1.90 ERA. Griffin Jax picked up two saves while bulletproof Brock Stewart rattled off two more scoreless innings. In 39 total innings with the Twins, Stewart has a 0.46 ERA and 35% K-rate with only one home run allowed. What a find.

Yeah, the White Sox and Angels are bad, and in Chicago's case, "bad" might not even do it justice. But fattening up on soft competition is what good teams do, and it's something that this Twins team desperately needed to do in the past week. Mission accomplished ... and then some.

LOWLIGHTS

It's tough to find too many low points in a week where the Twins didn't lose a single game, and were rarely at risk of doing so. That is not a complaint.  

I suppose Pablo López qualifies as a relative blemish on an otherwise fantastic week for the Twins. He was the only starter to have issues with the White Sox, lasting just four innings on Tuesday and raising some alarm with diminished velocity late in the outing. In his next turn, on Sunday, López appeared well on his way to erasing any concerns, taking a perfect game into the fifth before the wheels fell off and he gave up four runs in the blink of an eye, ending his day. 

The velocity was back to normal and López was extremely effective for most of the start, so Sunday's game can be viewed as relatively encouraging, even if it wasn't good. I would not have guessed after their respective first starts that, one month into the season, Ober would have a significantly better ERA (4.21) than López (4.83)

One of the only hitters who didn't partake in the offensive production fest was newcomer Austin Martin. He had a good game on Sunday, drawing two walks and driving in two runs with a single, but Martin otherwise was 2-for-18 with six strikeouts. He has had a fairly impressive MLB debut, from my view, but his overall production has been below replacement level. He's put 50 balls in play and is still looking for his first barrel. 

Normally I wouldn't make much out of a minor slump like this from a rookie still learning the ropes, but with a personnel crunch afoot, it may not bode well for Martin.

TRENDING STORYLINE

Roster moves are coming, and they will present some tough decisions. It appears that Correa is lined up to be activated for the White Sox series on Monday. Martin and José Miranda are the main candidates to be optioned and make room for Correa on the roster. While I think Martin has been more valuable, I also think the Twins care more about getting him everyday reps, whereas using the more fully-formed Miranda in a part-time role is less of an issue. Castro, who will be freed up from shortstop by Correa's return, can more or less fill the same role as Martin off the bench.

Then there is Durán, who may also get activated on Monday, or Friday at the latest barring a setback. Assuming no further injuries emerge in the bullpen, who forfeits their spot to make room? Kody Funderburk, now the team's third lefty following Caleb Thielbar's return, is likely in the crosshairs simply by virtue of having options, despite pitching well. 

Justin Topa, currently rehabbing in St. Paul, is not far behind Durán, and could force an even more difficult decision. A good problem to have, but still a quandary. Matt Bowman would be the obvious candidate, but in demoting him you'd risk losing him. Bowman has looked solid and the Twins front office hates to lose any quality depth if they can avoid it. You wonder if Cole Sands – who has looked fantastic – could be sent down to stretch out as a starter, bolstering Minnesota's skimpy rotation depth. Aaron Gleeman mentioned in The Athletic that he asked both Baldelli and Derek Falvey about this, "and they each indicated that Sands stretching back out as a starter could be a possibility if the rotation depth erodes much further."

LOOKING AHEAD

A week of multi-colored socks lies ahead. The Twins will head to Chicago for another go against the worst team in baseball, albeit one that just swept the down-bad Tampa Bay Rays over the weekend. From there, the Twins return home to face a more formidable (but still not great) Red Sox team. 

MONDAY, 4/29: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Joe Ryan v. LHP Garrett Crochet
TUESDAY, 4/30: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Simeon Woods Richardson v. RHP Michael Soroka
WEDNESDAY, 5/1: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Bailey Ober v. RHP Chris Flexen
FRIDAY, 5/3: RED SOX @ TWINS – RHP Josh Winckowski v. RHP Chris Paddack
SATURDAY, 5/4: RED SOX @ TWINS – RHP Tanner Houck v. RHP Pablo Lopez
SUNDAY, 5/5: RED SOX @ TWINS – TBD V. RHP Joe Ryan