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Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 4/15 through Sun, 4/21
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Record Last Week: 1-5 (Overall: 7-13)
Run Differential Last Week: -18 (Overall: -25)
Standing: 4th Place in AL Central (8.0 GB)
Last Week's Game Results:
Game 15 | BAL 7, MIN 4: Varland Gets Blown Up in Third Straight Start
Game 16 | BAL 11, MIN 3: Paddack Implodes as O's Blow Out Twins
Game 17 | BAL 4, MIN 2: Misery Crescendos in Sweep-Clinching Loss
Game 18 | DET 5, MIN 4: Cold and Sloppy Play Match the Weather
Game 19 | MIN 4, DET 3: Twins Narrowly Avoid a Sixth Straight Loss
Game 20 | DET 6, MIN 1: Varland Rocked, Offense Remains Dormant
NEW this week: The Twins Daily Week in Review is now available in podcast form if you prefer to listen on the go as opposed to reading the column. SUBSCRIBE AND LISTEN HERE. Also available on Apple and Spotify.
NEWS & NOTES
Following his breakthrough rookie season, the Twins stuck with Matt Wallner despite a thoroughly unimpressive spring, but evidently his leash wasn't all that long. Following a 2-for-25 start – with one of those hits being a homer against a positon player – Wallner was optioned to Triple-A on Tuesday, replaced by fellow lefty-swinging outfielder Trevor Larnach fresh off rehabbing a turf toe injury.
The Michael Tonkin reunion was short-lived. Freshly claimed off waivers from the Mets, Tonkin made one appearance for the Twins in Detroit last weekend before being placed back on waivers, where he was claimed on Wednesday by ... the Mets. The life of a fringe major-league reliever – which is not to say Tonkin's journey has been anywhere near typical.
On the flip side, the Twins also added a fringe major-league infielder in the form of Tony Kemp, signed to a minor-league contract after being released into free agency by the Orioles a week earlier. The veteran infielder has logged more than 700 games in the majors. He's been playing second base for the Saints and could become an option for the Twins in the near future, especially because...
Another 40-man roster spot is about to open up. The team shared over the weekend that Daniel Duarte is set for season-ending elbow surgery, which is a big downer after his impressive early showing out of the bullpen.
On the bright side, Jhoan Durán is nearing an earlier-than-expected return, as he prepares to embark on a rehab assignment in St. Paul this week. Meanwhile, Max Kepler, who was rehabbing with the Saints over the past few days, appears on track to get activated on Monday. The Twins are starting to get back some of their injured stars.
On a final roster note, reliever Josh Staumont was activated from the injured last and option to Triple-A. He's got some work to do to convince the Twins he can be an effective MLB pitcher again.
HIGHLIGHTS
The rotation-leading trio of Pablo López, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober has looked good. That's an encouraging fact as the Twins stare down a steep uphill climb to escape their early hole. When it comes to rattling off wins, consistent starting pitching is a vital part of the puzzle. This trio continues to look good each time out, with the exception of Ober's weird first start in Kansas City.
López was brilliant in Wednesday's start against a high-powered Orioles lineup that otherwise decimated Twins pitching, holding Baltimore to one run on two hits in six innings, with seven strikeouts and zero walks. Ryan and Ober followed with strong showings against the Tigers on Friday and Saturday; Ryan's effectiveness may not have been reflected in the box score (5.1 IP, 4 ER) but don't be deceived. Entering play on Sunday, Ryan's 2.26 FIP ranked as the sixth-best in baseball. Last year Sonny Gray led the majors with a 2.83 FIP.
LOWLIGHTS
As good as the top half of the Twins rotation has looked, the back end has looked almost equally bad, negating much of the value Minnesota is getting from its top three starters. Louie Varland and Chris Paddack do not appear up to the task in the fourth and fifth spots.
Paddack was pummeled by the Orioles on Tuesday, coughing up nine runs (all earned) on 12 hits in 5 ⅓ innings. He looked good in his late bullpen stint last year, but Paddack has inspired minimal confidence as a starter this year with a 9-to-5 K/BB ratio and 1.039 OPS allowed through 14 innings. Hopefully he's just trying to regain his sharpness after a long time away from pitching in a rotation.
The immense struggles of Varland are just as concerning, and maybe even more so. He got shelled for six runs (four earned) in five frames in Baltimore, yielding two more homers, and then was an erratic mess at home against the Tigers on Sunday, inflating his ERA to 9.18.
The lopsided rotation performance almost feels like a moot point in light of a Twins offense that routinely gives the team very little chance to win, lacking explosiveness or timely contributions from top to bottom. Despite a philosophy that is seemingly geared entirely toward hunting mistake pitches and hitting for power, the Twins have been vastly below average when ahead in the count and rank 28th out of 30 MLB teams in slugging percentage, ahead of only the lowly Marlins and White Sox.
I legitimately cannot think of an entire example all season of an inning where the Twins put together an actual rally fueled by multiple legitimate run-scoring hits. Their only modest outbursts of scoring seem to come on sacrifice flies, or when opposing teams misplay fly balls or grounders.
Aside from Ryan Jeffers (who himself has fallen into an 0-for-10 slump), no one's been especially productive at the plate. There are a few laggards who are really dragging the offense into the dregs with their complete inability to get going: Christian Vázquez went 2-for-13 with no walks and two GIDP. Kyle Farmer went 1-for-13, also with no walks; his batting average sits at .079 through 38 at-bats, and he's hitless in 15 plate appearances against lefties. Manuel Margot was 1-for-10 and continues to look rather unimpressive defensively in the outfield.
Arguably no one looks visibly worse than Carlos Santana, whose offensive aptitude has plainly evaporated at age 38. He went 2-for-12 and his OPS on the season sits .374. There are no redeeming qualities to be found in his performance, aside from looking solid on defense at first. His signature patience has become meaningless as pitchers attack the zone with impunity. There were multiple instances last week in which Santana got meatballs right out over the plate, swung his mightiest, and watched fly balls die in the medium-deep outfield.
Beyond the relentless lackluster performance across the board, this team is just difficult and maddening to watch on a basic level. There have been a lot of preventable lapses that seem really unacceptable for a team trying to scrap its way back into relevance.
In the second inning of Sunday's game, Edouard Julien failed to keep a tag applied on Javier Báez when he overslid second base, potentially costing the Twins an out. On Friday night, Byron Buxton finally got into a pitch, then stood and stared as it sailed toward left field, basically until it landed at the warning track. He cost himself at least one base by inexplicably failing to run out of the box, which is less annoying than the message it sends as a veteran leader on a floundering, power-obsessed team. It was one of the team's only big hits of the weekend (they were otherwise 1-for-23 with RISP) and even at that, felt jarring and unsatisfying.
When you're down bad, and missing several key players, you need to do everything right on the margins and try to gain any advantage you can get. The Twins can't seem to do much of anything right.
TRENDING STORYLINE
Is regression (or, progression) to the mean coming? Even if you believe this is a pretty bad offense, and the players mentioned above are in fact not very good ... the eternal ebbs and flows of baseball would suggest better days are ahead that will draw some of these guys closer to a level that could be considered merely "bad."
I mean, for cripe's sakes. Farmer is batting .079, and Castro .158. Vázquez has a .120 BABIP. Paddack and Varland have two of the worst ERAs in the majors. The Twins, as a team, are batting .194, grouped at the bottom of the league with a bunch of teams that aren't even trying. And it's even worse than that in scoring opportunities.
Aside from baseball arithmetic seeming to favor a turnaround of sorts, the Twins are also poised to start getting some of their key players back. And the softer upcoming portion of the schedule is conducive to going on a run. The Twins are counting on those things coming together because if that doesn't happen, they're going to be in extremely bad shape by month's end.
LOOKING AHEAD
The Twins have lost six of seven and are 2-6 at home. You can't ask for a much better opportunity to reverse these pitiful trends than a four-game serries against the pitiful Chicago White Sox at Target Field. Chicago has been the worst team in ball, playing at a sub-replacement level and padding the records of all opponents with their 3-18 start. If the Twins can't take advantage and win at least three of four in this series, it's going to be pretty tough not to write them off.
MONDAY, 4/22: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Jonathan Cannon v. RHP Chris Paddack
TUESDAY, 4/23: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Erick Fedde v. RHP Pablo Lopez
WEDNESDAY, 4/24: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – LHP Garrett Crochet v. RHP Joe Ryan
THURSDAY, 4/25: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Michael Soroka v. RHP Bailey Ober
FRIDAY, 4/26: TWINS @ ANGELS – RHP Louie Varland v. LHP Patrick Sandoval
SATURDAY, 4/27: TWINS @ ANGELS – RHP Chris Paddack v. RHP Jose Soriano
SUNDAY, 4/28: TWINS @ ANGELS – RHP Pablo Lopez v. LHP Reid Detmers
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