Twins Lack Starting Pitching Depth Behind Louie Varland

[Cody Christie]

Louie Varland has struggled on the mound for the Twins this season. Minnesota might be ready to make a switch, but the options behind him are lacking.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports, Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints

The Twins’ front office wanted to follow a similar plan to last season regarding the starting rotation. In 2023, Bailey Ober got pushed to Triple-A to start the year after the team traded for Pablo Lopez. It gave the team more depth and seemed to help in the long run. Louie Varland was supposed to serve a similar role this season. However, a season-ending injury to Anthony DeSclafani meant that Varland was vaulted into the rotation. His overall results have been poor, and the Twins might want to switch to one of the options below.

Option 1: Simeon Woods Richardson
Fans will have a recency bias with Woods Richardson after performing well in a spot start earlier this season. He allowed one earned run in six innings on two hits with five strikeouts and one walk. It was the best start of his big-league career against a Detroit team that caused the Twins fits this season. At Triple-A this season, he’s made three total starts with one terrible appearance (7 ER in 3 1/3 IP), while the other two have been solid (10 IP with 2 ER). The Twins are starting to accumulate value from the José Berríos trade, with Austin Martin adding a dynamic element to the roster. Woods Richardson is the most likely option to replace Varland, and the move can be expected by the end of the week. 

Option 2: Cole Sands
The Twins drafted Sands as a starting pitching prospect, and he spent most of his professional career in a starting role. Over the last two seasons, Minnesota shifted him to a long-relief role with some mixed results. However, he has been outstanding to start the 2024 campaign. In 9 2/3 innings, he allowed one earned run, a homer, on five hits with a 15-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He isn’t stretched out to fill a starter role, but the Twins could demote Varland and use Sands in an opener-style role. This move would allow the team to bring up another reliever to replace Varland on the active roster. Sands could go through the line-up once and turn the game over to the bullpen until he is more built up.

Option 3: David Festa
Multiple outlets consider Festa the Twins top pitching prospect, with Twins Daily ranking him as the team’s second-best behind Marco Raya. Last season, Festa posted a 4.19 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP and 119-to-42 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 92 1/3 innings. He ended last year at Triple-A, where the Twins sent him to begin 2024. He has allowed two earned runs on ten hits in four starts this season, but his walk rate is significantly higher than previous seasons (20.0 BB%). His 3.91 FIP is much higher than his ERA, and he has one of the highest BABIP totals of his career, so luck might be a factor in some of his early season totals. Unlike SWR and Sands, Festa has yet to be added to the 40-man roster, so the Twins will likely let him continue to develop in St. Paul before a call-up later this season. 

Option 4: Randy Dobnak
Fans may have forgotten that Dobnak is still part of the Twins organization. The right-handed pitcher signed a five-year, $9.25 million deal that covers the 2021-25 seasons. He has dealt with finger injuries in recent seasons, and Minnesota removed him from the 40-man roster. Dobnak is near the top of the International League in strikeouts this season, but that’s more of a result of his innings pitched. Dobnak has seen a jump in his groundball rate from 46.1% last season to 67.2% in 2024. He is a sinker ball pitcher, so increasing ground balls is critical for returning to a more consistent performance. The Twins would like to get value from the Dobnak contract, but it looks like a sunk cost at this point.

Which option is most likely for the Twins? Would the Twins consider using Sands as an opener? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 

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[weneedneshek]

I think SWR has a decent chance to be serviceable as the Varland replacement, but if anyone else goes down or starts to underperform we are in big trouble. Everyone else on this list is a break glass for emergency level of depth

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

I wouldn't move Sands out of the bullpen. IMHO, he's better suited there and can be a high-end contributor as a reliever. Injuries and/or lack of production could force the Twins' hand but hopefully SWR is the answer - and if he's not, then hopefully Varland can get right.

This off-season has been a gigantic cluster but IMHO, the biggest indictment is that its not even May 1st and we're talking about Randy Dobnak or David Festa...

[Riverbrian]

Starting pitching depth?

We will find out when players are called up to perform. 

Development should always be a work in progress. 

If they fail... Bullpen games are still an option. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Where is La Tortuga when you need him? 

[MinnInPa]

nope to all these...they would be worse than Varland..maybe next year for Festa

[Azviking101]

2 minutes ago, MinnInPa said:

nope to all these...they would be worse than Varland..maybe next year for Festa

Varland was already demoted so someone from this list is replacing him. 

[JD-TWINS]

9 minutes ago, MinnInPa said:

nope to all these...they would be worse than Varland..maybe next year for Festa

Who is going to pitch then? Castro?

[Alex Wilde]

6 minutes ago, Azviking101 said:

Varland was already demoted so someone from this list is replacing him. 

Well yes and no. Ronny Henriquez replaced his spot on the roster for now to add some bullpen depth. But it’ll most likely be SWR replacing his spot in the rotation for now as he’s on the 40 and has shown some promise so far this year.

[arby58]

7 minutes ago, MinnInPa said:

nope to all these...they would be worse than Varland..maybe next year for Festa

It's hard to believe ANY option could be worse than Varland so far. The stats are mind-boggling bad: 0-4 record in 4 starts, just 16.2 innings pitched, 27 hits, 6 home runs, 9 walks, an ERA north of 9, and a WHIP north of 2. 

[twinzcynic]

This simply can't be true. Falvine has a well established pitching pipeline at this stage and we are stacked!

-Twins media this preseason

[DJL44]

In the least surprising development of the season, Matt Canterino is still injured.

[adjacent]

Not much left. Who would have thought? Close to the time to explore the unsigned, DFA limbo.

[Craig Arko]

When is Winder going to start a rehab? He could be an option in June, I guess.

[wipster]

Twins short on starting pitching?? WOW!! NO ONE saw that coming!!! After all those off season signings they didn't make, I was sure the brilliant front office and the always ready to spend Pohlads had that all covered!! I'M SHOCKED!!!

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, MinnInPa said:

nope to all these...they would be worse than Varland..maybe next year for Festa

So at age 24 he isn't good enough or ready but will be at 25?  Don't understand that logic.

averaging 3 innings per start in AAA is worrisome, but if he isn't ready if needed this year, I don't have faith he will be next year either.

 

[Linus]

Yea well no kidding. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

The only real answer here is SWR.  He will get every opportunity to hold that spot.  The real question is who is next?

There is no reasonable expectation that the other 4 starters will stay 100% healthy all year.  We know the Twins will not spend a dime on increasing payroll.  Who is next?  Will they rush Festa?  There is literally no other options in the minors...

I continue to be amazed there is not a mass riot outside Twins Field every day for the way ownership has destroyed this team and alienated the fanbase this past offseason.

[Guest]

Option #2.

[farmerguychris]

Come on guys, give Dobnak a shot.  I'd love to see us get something out of his salary and he can't really be much worse can he?  Would love to see him end up being a long, drawn out success story for us if his finger is healthy!

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Starting pitching depth?

We will find out when players are called up to perform. 

Development should always be a work in progress. 

If they fail... Bullpen games are still an option. 

Lopez, Ryan & Ober have been fairly dependable. Paddack coming back from TJ & the young arms are like Riverbrian has stated a work in progress. Therefore their usage should be managed, which means some form of piggy-back. Paddack, Varland, & Sands have had success in relief & should be used in long relief & spot starting. SWR & Festa as openers. By this article, I'm encouraged about Dobnak's progress. Other reports have stated that Dobnak has lost his stuff, but his SO & GB rates show otherwise. Yet I wouldn't want to test him until our SS, 3B & 2B problem is solved. 

DeSclavani was a expensive mistake but back end of a rotation is rather easy & inexpensive way to add depth by signing a MiLB contract or waiver wire if need be.

[Mike Sixel]

How many teams have good starters in AAA, not being  down for no reason? I'd guess very few, if any. The Twins at least have SWR to try as a realistic option. 

This idea that they are failures for not having good starters in AAA does not reflect reality of the rest of the league at all. 

[Riverbrian]

20 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Lopez, Ryan & Ober have been fairly dependable. Paddack coming back from TJ & the young arms are like Riverbrian has stated a work in progress. Therefore their usage should be managed, which means some form of piggy-back. Paddack, Varland, & Sands have had success in relief & should be used in long relief & spot starting. SWR & Festa as openers. By this article, I'm encouraged about Dobnak's progress. Other reports have stated that Dobnak has lost his stuff, but his SO & GB rates show otherwise. Yet I wouldn't want to test him until our SS, 3B & 2B problem is solved. 

DeSclavani was a expensive mistake but back end of a rotation is rather easy & inexpensive way to add depth by signing a MiLB contract or waiver wire if need be.

Pitching is always a puzzle.

Front offices will limit multiple possibilities if they can only see 5 man rotation with each starter going 6 innings as the only way to get through a season. 

The question to me is always: Can you hang zeroes and how many can you hang? Starters/Relievers it's the same question. Take as many as zeroes as they can offer you.  

If innings are being managed with the young pitchers and with Paddack. They are being managed. You got to figure out how to fill the space via the other options including stretching out some arms in the bullpen. 

In regards to DeSclafini... I would always choose young arms that can be sent back down if they struggle over an innings eating vet who can't be sent down. Not only can a young pitcher be sent down but a young pitcher can also become a decent pitcher who eliminates the need to sign DeSclafini innings eater types in the future. 

If all a vet starter can offer you is innings at 5.00 ERA plus. A young pitcher who struggles won't be that much worse so go with the guy who has a future.  

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Riverbrian said:

Pitching is always a puzzle.

Front offices will limit multiple possibilities if they can only see 5 man rotation with each starter going 6 innings as the only way to get through a season. 

The question to me is always: Can you hang zeroes and how many can you hang. Take as many as zeroes as they can offer you. That includes pitchers in the starter box or the reliever box.  

If innings are being managed with the young pitchers and with Paddack. They are being managed. You got to figure out how to fill the space via the other options including stretching out some arms in the bullpen. 

In regards to DeSclafini... I would always choose young arms that can be sent back down if they struggle over an innings eating vet who can't be sent down. Not only can a young pitcher be sent down but a young pitcher can also become a decent pitcher who eliminates the need to sign DeSclafini innings eater types in the future. 

If all a vet starter can offer you is innings at 5.00 ERA plus. A young pitcher who struggles won't be that much worse so go with the guy who has a future.  

This, every day, this. And with hitters too....

[rv78]

If Varland is so good in the bullpen then use him that way. If Sands is good in the bullpen then use him that way. Let SWR start the game, go 3 innings and turn it over to the bullpen and those 2 good long relief guys just named. In theory you can say it is a bullpen game. Sounds like an automatic win since the Twins have the "best bullpen" in the majors. LOL! Now if they can only play the WSox everyday, their hitting problem is solved.

[Riverbrian]

13 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

This, every day, this. And with hitters too....

Running a 26 and 40 man roster has many complications. 

If you want to simplify it... it can be simplified.  

Don't just let bad continue. Always give others the chance to do better.

Competition for roster spots and playing time at all times. 

A pitcher who is struggling and a batter who is struggling is what takes your team down. 

 

 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Craig Arko said:

When is Winder going to start a rehab? He could be an option in June, I guess.

Winder is a reliever at this point. There's absolutely no realistic scenario where I'd view him as a potential starter.

[Doctor Gast]

14 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Running a 26 and 40 man roster has many complications. 

If you want to simplify it... it can be simplified.  

Don't just bad continue. Always give others the chance to do better.

Competition for roster spots and playing time at all times. 

A pitcher who is struggling and a batter who is struggling is what takes your team down. 

When have players w/ options you play the players with the hot hand & rotate. It's like you say it's a puzzle that needs to be daily figured out.

[bean5302]

Of the internal options (which aren't great). Woods-Richardson is probably the best option.
Festa = Drew Strotman. Festa cannot throw strikes, and I suspect if he did change his game to try, he'd get destroyed (just like Strotman did).
Dobnak has struggled with walks which doesn't bode well for a high contact rate pitcher and he'd have to be added to the 40 man roster.
Woods-Richardson has been decent this year in AAA aside from the clunker he threw on 4/7. He's already on the 40 man and his clock is ticking.

I'd like the Twins to take a look at Noah Syndergaard as depth. Should be able to scoop him on a MiLB contract. Give him a month or two in the minors to see if they can help him out.

[DJL44]

43 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

Come on guys, give Dobnak a shot.  I'd love to see us get something out of his salary and he can't really be much worse can he?  Would love to see him end up being a long, drawn out success story for us if his finger is healthy!

He has a 5.20 ERA in AAA since the beginning of 2023 which would project to > 6 in the big leagues. It would likely be a long, drawn-out story of failure.