Simple Problem, apparently not easy to fix

[SteveLV]

In 2023, the MLB average batting average with RISP was .258.  The Twins hit .252.  Not good, but not terrible.

So far in 2024, they are hitting .148, 9 for 61. 

Whoof!

You would think and hope this would regress to the mean, but the Twins are really, really struggling after a brutal 0 for 12 in today's game.

They certainly miss Royce Lewis, as he seems to perform very well in that situation.

[bighat]

Putting the ball in play with men on base seems to be a challenge for this team. Twins could have scored in the 1st inning with Kirilloff on 3rd and 1 out, but Buxton struck out. All he needed was a groundout to the middle infield or a fly out. 

In my opinion the strikeouts in MLB these days make it a hard product to enjoy. And I'm a baseball nut. This is why casual fans have walked away from the game. 

[Azviking101]

Buxton is at .143 with RISP over the past 2 years. His pull rates sky rocket in those situations and his BABIP shrunk to .086 last year. 
I haven’t been a fan of buxtons home run or nothing approach that he’s had the past 2+ years but when there’s runners in scoring position, as long as you don’t throw anything near the zone, he’s certain to strike out or product weak contact. Any playoff caliber pitcher knows to exploit that. 

[bean5302]

8 hours ago, SteveLV said:

In 2023, the MLB average batting average with RISP was .258.  The Twins hit .252.  Not good, but not terrible.

So far in 2024, they are hitting .148, 9 for 61. 

Whoof!

You would think and hope this would regress to the mean, but the Twins are really, really struggling after a brutal 0 for 12 in today's game.

They certainly miss Royce Lewis, as he seems to perform very well in that situation.

Situational batting average (runners on, bases empty, runners in scoring position, etc) isn't significantly different. If the Twins go 6 for 10, today, their team average will jump to .211. It's just a matter of time.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

3 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Situational batting average (runners on, bases empty, runners in scoring position, etc) isn't significantly different. If the Twins go 6 for 10, today, their team average will jump to .211. It's just a matter of time.

Exactly.  It’s a little early to crunch the data.  The sample sizes are just too small and not that predictive of what will really happen.  If this weren’t true, then Brent Rooker would have won the AL MVP and broken the season home run record last year. 

[bean5302]

1 minute ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Exactly.  It’s a little early to crunch the data.  The sample sizes are just too small and not that predictive of what will really happen.  If this weren’t true, then Brent Rooker would have won the AL MVP and broken the season home run record last year. 

Rooker will rake again this year, but I'd bet pretty hard against the MVP and HR record still hahahah.

[nicksaviking]

When other teams get runners on, many pitchers tend to start nibbling at the corners to avoid leaving a big hit out over the plate. Obviously nibbling leads to more balls, which leads to more base runners.

So if the other team knows that the Twins won't swing at the first pitch, the Twins are putting themselves at a huge disadvantage. No need to nibble. In the long run, the Twins won't be seeing more pitches, they'll just be taking more called strikes.

[Doctor Gast]

11 hours ago, SteveLV said:

In 2023, the MLB average batting average with RISP was .258.  The Twins hit .252.  Not good, but not terrible.

So far in 2024, they are hitting .148, 9 for 61. 

Whoof!

You would think and hope this would regress to the mean, but the Twins are really, really struggling after a brutal 0 for 12 in today's game.

They certainly miss Royce Lewis, as he seems to perform very well in that situation.

IMO it has been more than this year, Twins tend to target Gallo type hitters. Lewis improved tremendously our RISP BA last year. But now with our 2 best clutch hitters are gone, it'll be tough.

[USAFChief]

48 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

 If the Twins go 6 for 10, today, their team average will jump to .211

I guarantee the Twins won't go 6 for 10 today.

[Linus]

This brings us back to the strikeouts are just another out debate. Like most things in life the answer is somewhere in the middle. Many times they don’t matter but they sure do matter when you have runners in scoring position especially with two outs. Buck had to at least make contact and Julien can’t take strike 3 looking with the bases loaded. 

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, Azviking101 said:

Buxton is at .143 with RISP over the past 2 years. His pull rates sky rocket in those situations and his BABIP shrunk to .086 last year. 
I haven’t been a fan of buxtons home run or nothing approach that he’s had the past 2+ years but when there’s runners in scoring position, as long as you don’t throw anything near the zone, he’s certain to strike out or product weak contact. Any playoff caliber pitcher knows to exploit that. 

Buxton is hugely overrated.  Been saying it for years.

[SwainZag]

6 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Buxton is hugely overrated.  Been saying it for years.

Only Correa and Kiriloff have hit better than Byron so far.....why is he being singled out in this thread?

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

I guarantee the Twins won't go 6 for 10 today.

I'm more excited that they won't go 0-10 today

[Alex]

Weird to say that Buck is overrated when he has had multiple seasons where he outproduces most of the league without playing more than half the games.   

Last season was doubtlessly awful for him but he also was dealing with a serious knee issue.  Hopefully we'll see a much better player this year.   Outside of yesterday's game, he has been one of the team's better hitters and a key to their comeback win against the Brewers.

Small sample size, but the player who I'm concerned about and seems to look like he's back to his worst is Kep.

[Parfigliano]

38 minutes ago, SwainZag said:

Only Correa and Kiriloff have hit better than Byron so far.....why is he being singled out in this thread?

His career.

Highest RBI total 51.  Hit 28 HRs that year.  Obviously lots of solo's which is true for his career.

Supposed to be a stolen base guy yet has 86 total 29 of which came in one year.

301 career RBI.

He's great defense only.  Important yes but does not make a star.

 

[mrcharlie]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Situational batting average (runners on, bases empty, runners in scoring position, etc) isn't significantly different. If the Twins go 6 for 10, today, their team average will jump to .211. It's just a matter of time.

Yes...but the outcomes can be significantly different.  You can bet the pitcher know what the situation calls for and the batter needs to be prepared and disciplined enough to respond.

Twins batters are getting themselves out by not tailoring their approach to the moment.

[Azviking101]

1 hour ago, SwainZag said:

Only Correa and Kiriloff have hit better than Byron so far.....why is he being singled out in this thread?

Because outside of a few awesome walkoff HRs we all remember, he really only produces hits in less meaningful spots. 
 

[chpettit19]

Way too small of a sample size to say anything about anything here. Definitely need to pick it up with runners in scoring position, but before yesterday they were actually doing much better at not racking up Ks. To show how volatile numbers are this early in the season, though, they went from 22nd in K% through 5 games (22.4%) to 6th in K% through 6 games (25.2%). 

I've been pretty vocal that I don't think this offense is as good as many others seem to, and no Lewis is going to make it even worse, but it's way too early to make any judgements about anything. Let's get a month into this before we start trying to draw even loose conclusions about anything.

[SteveLV]

They did not hit well in ST, either, but everyone poo-poo'ed that and said everyone was "working on something."

I, at least, am quite concerned about their lack of offense.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, SteveLV said:

They did not hit well in ST, either, but everyone poo-poo'ed that and said everyone was "working on something."

I, at least, am quite concerned about their lack of offense.

They were working on trying to get the bat to hit the ball, not very good , so far.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Makes me think Miranda has a place on the team if he continues to hit in St. Paul. And Martin should get a chance to hit too. Both are good at making contact, and that's something that Kepler and Wallner (and others) aren't doing to start the season.

[Mike Sixel]

It's been less than ten games. 

[PseudoSABR]

4 hours ago, SteveLV said:

They did not hit well in ST, either, but everyone poo-poo'ed that and said everyone was "working on something."

I, at least, am quite concerned about their lack of offense.

The cold spring always makes for a rough start with the offense.  That Correra and Kirloff are producing is huge. The young guys like Julien and Walner need to given time to adjust to the league as the league has likely adjusted to them.

Not worried, give it 45 to 60 days/games.

[Joe A. Preusser]

8 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Buxton is hugely overrated.  Been saying it for years.

Huge BOO to this, Sir.

[RpR]

10 minutes ago, PseudoSABR said:

The cold spring always makes for a rough start with the offense. ---The young guys like Julien and Walner need to given time to adjust to the league as the league has likely adjusted to them.

 

AH, the stuck records keeps repeating the same thing over, and over, and over....

[RpR]

3 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Makes me think Miranda has a place on the team if he continues to hit in St. Paul. And Martin should get a chance to hit too. Both are good at making contact, and that's something that Kepler and Wallner (and others) aren't doing to start the season.

Miranda probably, Martin , back to AAA.

[stringer bell]

Buxton has K'd the last three times he came up with RiSP, but he was 3-3 prior to that, so SSS he's actually doing well. 

Looking at box scores, there are lots of good and great hitters hitting under .200. It is just too early to make rash decisions about players. Guys can literally double their BA with one good game and go from horrible to great with a hot series. Yes, the Twins have more than their share of slow starts, but just a game or two can correct a lot when it comes to the numbers.

[NotAboutWinning]

11 hours ago, PseudoSABR said:

The cold spring always makes for a rough start with the offense.  That Correra and Kirloff are producing is huge. The young guys like Julien and Walner need to given time to adjust to the league as the league has likely adjusted to them.

Not worried, give it 45 to 60 days/games.

Didn’t seem to affect the Guardians much 😕

[JD-TWINS]

21 hours ago, SwainZag said:

Only Correa and Kiriloff have hit better than Byron so far.....why is he being singled out in this thread?

It’s a LOB thread and his lack of success is most recent …… “.143 Avg over 2 seasons with guys On Base” isn’t really singling him out with recency bias - he doesn’t take a smart/team approach with guys on base. Watch the games. He was hurt previously and rely g in power to produce. He can run now - needs to put ball in ground with a guy at 3B & not try to hit it to the Track or further every AB.

AB’s are obviously fluid (approach is fluid) but with a guy on 3B and less than 2 outs, batter cannot strike out.

[SteveLV]

Well, another 0-11 with RISP in today's offensive gem.  At least it was quick.

I am getting quite alarmed over this O's inability to generate runs.  Twins now 0-25 in last 2.5 games, and 9 for 72 for the season, an incredibly inept .125 BA with RISP.

Please let me know when a SSS becomes a major problem, ok?