Alex

Feel bad for the pitching. They have no wiggle room. Varland singles weren't terribly well hit and Devers hit could have been an out. But with this offense, mostly need to pitch a shutout.

I think it will be good to revisit this thread as Santana is their biggest offseason signing (no fault of the front office that they didn't have more options to choose from). We're now at the end of May and our first baseman has a 655 OPS and an 89 OPS+. The only reason that he isn't a bigger drag on the offense is because we are getting insane offensive production from a sometimes catcher/DH and a SS, two of the normally weakest hitting positions in a lineup. It's significantly worse against RHP. He should definitely be only starting against LHP at this point.

He's starting with his conclusion, which is that the Twins are cheap and then trying to use that to fit this. It's doubly wrong though because Lewis gets MLB time and a MLB salary during his recovery and rehab when he is injured during a major league game. So, they're actually "losing" money/time on him for every day he is on a rehab assignment.

I'm pretty sure that's incorrect again (both stats, btw). Edit: Looked at OAA Steven Kwan was 9 OAA from what I could tell, which translated to 8 runs according to statcast. While I have used UZR, it does look like OAA is more reliable year to year. EDIT 2: Daulton Varshow currently leads the MLB with 5 OAA = 5 runs. Twins have lost 2 runs based on OAA. I'd agree that LF especially are going to usually be able to make up more runs with their bat than they might lose in defense, but the Twins LF are not hitting recently, so it's a low bar. But, I'll say that implying it's likely Keirsey, or anyone, would give up a full out per game would be impossible. Twins LF, positionally, have only reached base 56 times (38 hits and 18 walks). A full out extra per game means he would never reach base. That's ridiculous. I'm not saying he for sure wouldn't be bad, but please try to keep it within the realm of reason or understand what we are talking about here. If he is 200 points lower than his AAA OPS, he'd be an average major league hitter with +defense. Not great for LF but right where the Twins are for the season with better defense. So, up to this point in a season that player might be worth 3-4 saved runs. More if he hit better.

Sometimes the best we got just shouldn't be used because it's meaningless. Those numbers do not indicate range. Here's what Gleeman wrote about him: "He’s one of the fastest players in the organization, with MLB-caliber range in center field and an average of 47 steals per 150 games in the high minors, and the left-handed bat that once held him back is now a potential asset as well." Gleeman usually uses a combination of stats and information he gets from scouts. I'm guessing he's leaning on the latter here because of the uselessness of the stats above. Take a look at Buxton. Even he had seasons where it was what Keirsey has (and some worse). Keirsey had a 2.73 in CF last year.

That is absolutely NOT two chances per game. It's two chances per game converted into outs. There are fly balls hit to the OF that are not caught that end up as singles and doubles (and less likely triples). A player with better range can actually make a play on more of those balls and convert w. (That's why ZR is used in the majors, but unfortunately we don't see that in the minors that I could find). The other flaw in your logic assumes that LF has a player that is hitting and that Keirsey wouldn't. We know that no one playing LF is hitting and that they are pretty bad defensively. So, if Keirsey just comes up and hits the equivalent, he's going to add value. If he actually hits, even around average, he's a significant upgrade. LF field is currently the worst defensive position on the team by UZR. https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/twins/stats#leaders-fielding Wallner is actually the only one who isn't a negative.

As you probably already know, it is not. It's really about chances and assumes everyone gets an equal number of opportunities (and that those opportunities are also all equal).

I wish they could find room to give him a shot. He's an upgrade in LF for pretty much everyone overall, even if he hits below average simply due to defense. I think he's at least earned a look. That said, I don't think he'll get one unless there is an injury. The tough part is finding that spot. He's not a replacement for Margot. Not just because Margot is right-handed, but you don't want to call Keirsey up just to face lefties, setting him up for failure. Nope, Margot's replacement is Austin Martin. And, Castro is a better option in LF against LHP anyway. While he could replace Kirilloff in the lineup if you want to send him down, that's not great for the roster since Kirilloff should primarily be playing 1B or DH against RHP. I don't know who a good option to replace Kirilloff is in general. It would just mean more ABs for an equal disappointing and struggling Santana at 1B or moving Miranda over there against RHP. Again, though, not really an option for Keirsey. Kirilloff is getting way too many starts in LF, due to Larnach's turf toe, but I still don't think Keirsey is the right player to replace Kirilloff if that's the case. Keirsey's best path to the majors is if Larnach continues to struggle or is sent on the IL (and maybe he should be at this point). I think the latter is the more likely callup as it looks like in both the case of Larnach and Kirilloff, the FO is giving them a decent leash and seems reluctant to send them down for performance reasons right now. That would make him a regular option in LF against RHP with him giving rest to Buxton in CF once a week. Castro would maintain a super utility role giving players rest and playing different positions.

I posted this is the Game Thread from yesterday but I think it merits its own discussion: If MLB Gameday is right at identifying pitches, Duran's gotta be hurt or something is off. His fastballs today in order were: 99.1, 99.2, 100.7, 100, 99.9, 97.5, 97.3, 98.1, 99.8, 98.2, 98.9 People in the thread were saying he was 99-101 on the broadcast, but those numbers look rounded up. I didn't list them but his spliiter/splinker was below 96 the couple of times he threw it. Assuming these pitches were correctly identified and he's not throwing them differently on purpose, there definitely seems to be more wrong than just losing a couple MPH due to being a year older. Specifically, this was on two days' rest, he topped 100 just twice and then velocity jumped all over after that (3.5 mph difference), including pitches that were 97MPH, getting it over 99 just once in his last six fastballs. The 97 MPH came on his 7th pitch, so it's not like he had thrown a ton of pitches (or was like a starter that had gone multiple innings). His overall fastball is down to 100.3, but it won't be there long if his outings like this continue. Obviously, we'd love all of our relievers to average that, but it's the inconsistency within the outing after two days of rest that seems a bit worrisome.

If MLB Gameday is right at identifying pitches, Duran's gotta be hurt or something is off. His fastballs today were: 98.9, 98.2, 99.8, 98.1, 97.3, 97.5, 99.9, 100, 100.7, 99.2, 99.1. That's in reverse order. His 101 was rounded up (unless I missed a pitch) and he only actually beat 100 twice. I don't think I'd be concerned if the rest were like 99+, but he had two below 98. I think that there is some cause for concern and wonder due to the gap (if those pitches are identified correctly). Of note, his splinker/splitter was down in speed as well, unless he's throwing it differently, in the low-mid 90s.

Again, if you called those pitches close enough to swing at, you won't often be seeing a hitter take a pitch with 2 strikes.

The pitches they took were balls, and they weren't even that close. If you expect hitters to protect the plate on those pitches, then you're advocating for hitters to pretty much swing at everything with two strikes.

Don't know if are watching but he had three strikes to Ramirez but the count was 2-1. This game could legit be 3-2 Twins if not for some bad calls.

I would love an emojii or reaction that reminds people not to get too worked up about 1 game. Not sure what that would be, though!

As I said, it's been great he's doing well this month and I hope it continues. You keep mentioning "yesterday's" (Sunday's) game. He didn't "definitely" win that game, btw. Kepler hit a 2-RBI double in that one as well that would have been enough to win it, too. It's hard to pick a specific game a position player "loses" for them because that's just not how baseball works, but having a 1B that is hitting that poorly is the worst drag you can have on a lineup (His April WPA explains this and goes to your argument of timing). Here are a couple more stats (two of which relate to the "timing" issue we are talking about). He ranks 11th among hitters in WPA despite this month and is still a net negative (-.31 as mentioned above). This is a pretty good indicator of just how important a player is to getting big hits, but he's still been a net negative. Jeffers leads the team at 1.73, but I think it's pretty telling that Santana is 11th. For the season, he's behind players like Austin Martin and Jose Miranda. This is because he was a -1.17 WPA during the 7-13 start, this is the worst mark on the Twins during that time and is almost double what the next worst, Kyle Farmer, was. In fact, he was third worst in the majors during that time. That's just awful and it's really hard for me to imagine someone arguing that he didn't cost the Twins something during the start of the season. If you're argument is that he didn't cost them a game during this time, then no position player will ever cost a team a game by that logic. Fangraphs clutch rating is similar in that he's -.12 (again, net negative). Buxton leads the team with a .82. Santana is behind KYLE FARMER in this category though they're only separated by .01 points. Despite being third on the team in Games played with 37, he's 9th in WAR with .3 (Fangraphs). If you sort by just first basemen, he's well below average for hitting categories, Now, if we sort for the start of the win streak, he's 2nd on the team in WPA during that time (behind Kepler) and 1st in clutch (Satana is a .4 and there are a bunch of hitters in the .3-.4 range). So, Rocco's absolutely correct that during the streak, he's been much better and one of the keys to the success. But that goes to show just how much of a drag he was for the team during the 7-13 start if he's still on the bottom of team numbers at this point. An average 1B hitter in place of him would have benefitted the team a bit more up to this point. Like I said, hopefully he continues playing the way he has this month. That would be a huge boon for the lineup.