Slow Spring Training, Any Reason to be Concerned?

[stringer bell]

The Twins lost again yesterday and their Spring Training record stands at 6-13 in the Grapefruit League. I know that everyone forgets Spring Training records when the season starts, but are there causes for concern?

Several hitters slated for the major league team have struggled so far in the spring. Matt Wallner (.475 OPS), Manuel Margot (.223 OPS) and Max Kepler (.136 BA but .705 OPS) have not hit much at all so far. A few pitchers slated for the staff have struggled, including Justin Topa (7.71 ERA) who was supposed to be a key relief option and the members of the rotation haven't exactly thrived. Reliever Caleb Thielbar and prospective starter Anthony DeSclafani have not performed in games to this point. 

Presumed regulars Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton have played sparingly so far this year and are healthy by all reports, and they project to do well when the real season starts. Most of the rest of the position players are healthy and have performed okay in Florida. Most of the pitchers slated to make the team have been okay, but not great this spring. 

I'd like to see the Twins start to win games and some of the struggling players show signs of life. I am not quite to the point where I am really concerned, but it will make my anxiety about the team subside with some good performances in the balance of the exhibition season. 

What is the temperature of the Twins Daily community? Are we still optimistic or thinking this is an indication that the Twins had their chance last year and they are cycling down?

[Squirrel]

I’ve expressed my skepticism in other threads, but also acknowledge the potential. I think there is plenty to be skeptical about, but I also think we could be surprised … if players play up to their potential and stay relatively healthy. (Yeah, big ifs, but hope springs eternal,) I think it’s still too soon to tell, too soon to be concerned. I often give it a month or two of the regular season before I say too much either way. And as I’ve said around these parts many times … Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. I don’t have any control over any of it, so while hope might get dashed, I’m not going to lose sleep or get overly emotional over it, either.

[LastOnePicked]

I'm not worried. Maybe I should be, but the Twins really seem to have players focus on ramping up slowly and making incremental adjustments in ST. I don't think there's much of a correlation between the way they're playing now and the way they'll play when the season starts.

[Doctor Gast]

I still have confidence in the core. Larnach, Miranda, Vazquez & Alcala are encouraging. Hopefully, soon they get past the experimenting & into cooking.

[ashbury]

The bats started slow last year and got slower, right up to the mid-season mark when suddenly it was like them breaking out big grins and saying to us "what were you worried about, huh?"  So one can read those tea leaves either way one wants.  The weak batting results in spring training lead me to expect another slow start, which will be hard to take after getting our hopes up like that.  Maybe they think they can "work on some new things, give us time" then turn it on at will.  I used to have cars like that, back in the days of carburetors and the setting of chokes; I arrived at work late some mornings as a result, though the engine ran fine once it was started.

[ashbury]

42 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I believe that both MLB and the NFL could shorten their pre-seasons by at least 25% and still be fine.

Shorten the entire pre-season itself?  Or just replace a week's worth of games with continued drills in early March?

[wabene]

With all the Latin players and the vast majority of US players from warm climes, slow starts are common. Finding a way to alleviate this would be an advantage. It would make early season watching more palatable as well. Mandatory rides on the Twins caravan for intensive ice fishing excursions? Blood thickening therapy

[USAFChief]

3 minutes ago, wabene said:

With all the Latin players and the vast majority of US players from warm climes, slow starts are common. Finding a way to alleviate this would be an advantage. It would make early season watching more palatable as well. Mandatory rides on the Twins caravan for intensive ice fishing excursions? Blood thickening therapy

Warm climes?

Like Ft Myers Florida?

Anywho, as to the OP, I generally am less optimistic about this team in 2024 than most here, and the slow start to ST certainly hasn't changed my mind.

I don't think adding aging Carlos Santana, Desclafani, Paddack, and a bunch of iffy relievers improved last years team. And we're counting pretty heavily on multiple youngsters to prove last year was real.

 

[wabene]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Warm climes?

Like Ft Myers Florida?

 

Yeah I'm referring to when the season starts and the northern ballparks start humming. Many of these guys are slow starters. 

 

[FlyingFinn]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

Several hitters slated for the major league team have struggled so far in the spring. Matt Wallner (.475 OPS), Manuel Margot (.223 OPS) and Max Kepler (.136 BA but .705 OPS) have not hit much at all so far.

Wallner, no. But don't expect great things in April. Notoriously slow starts almost every minor league season. I always said it was moving up levels but maybe it's mostly that it takes him forever to get in the groove.

Margot - probably not, changed teams, still getting adjusted (though I would have taken Taylor at $4 million and kept Noah Miller)

Kepler - yes, just because he's had entire seasons of not hitting well. Veteran though so I'll still say spring training doesn't matter for him.

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

the rest of the position players are healthy

That is the key. We have two pitchers who haven't pitched and other teams are losing pitchers for months or all season.

Overall, spring training only matters who guys trying to make the team and the AAA guys trying to impress the coaches. In that category, the box scores are showing Lee hitting well lately with several doubles.

[CRF]

True...ST games don't mean squat, but by the same token...you'd like to see the team do a little better than they have been. I'm not real concerned yet...if I'm not mistaken, TK always used to say that after the first 40 games you should know what kind of team you have. I'm willing to wait until we're 40 games in, and see what's going on. Hopefully, we're 30-10!

[Schmoeman5]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

The bats started slow last year and got slower, right up to the mid-season mark when suddenly it was like them breaking out big grins and saying to us "what were you worried about, huh?"  So one can read those tea leaves either way one wants.  The weak batting results in spring training lead me to expect another slow start, which will be hard to take after getting our hopes up like that.  Maybe they think they can "work on some new things, give us time" then turn it on at will.  I used to have cars like that, back in the days of carburetors and the setting of chokes; I arrived at work late some mornings as a result, though the engine ran fine once it was started.

Not the way I saw the season. The only regular who fixed the choke problem on the carburetor was Kepler. Kepler got hot. Miranda was put on the IL. Larnach was demoted. Correa never got going. Buxton and Gallo contributed early and fell off. Polanco was steady after starting on the IL . The offense kicked in with the infusion of Lewis, Wallner, and Julien. Farmer, Solano, Castro, and Taylor were the only guys who started the season with the club who were steady all year. And the plan for those 4 guys to start the season was as role players.

[Schmoeman5]

1 hour ago, FlyingFinn said:

Wallner, no. But don't expect great things in April. Notoriously slow starts almost every minor league season. I always said it was moving up levels but maybe it's mostly that it takes him forever to get in the groove.

Margot - probably not, changed teams, still getting adjusted (though I would have taken Taylor at $4 million and kept Noah Miller)

Kepler - yes, just because he's had entire seasons of not hitting well. Veteran though so I'll still say spring training doesn't matter for him.

That is the key. We have two pitchers who haven't pitched and other teams are losing pitchers for months or all season.

Overall, spring training only matters who guys trying to make the team and the AAA guys trying to impress the coaches. In that category, the box scores are showing Lee hitting well lately with several doubles.

Wallner is in no position for a "notoriously slow starts". In the minors as a prospect you have that luxury. Not so much on the major league level. Unless you've built up equity. He hasn't yet. And you mentioned 3 outfielders. 2 projected as starters. If all 3 start off slowly. That won't bode well. Unless the reinvigorated Buxton and Correa and mvp candidate Lewis are doing max damage as heavy haulers.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not going to worry until May....I might not really worry at all...

[wabene]

33 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not going to worry until May....I might not really worry at all...

A vigilant, dispassionate observer. Very complicated person.

[Obsvr]

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Have you looked at the lineups?  In general 7-8 minor leaguers,  maybe 1-2 name hitters, the odd game where 4-6 big leaguers.  As to the pitchers,  primarily bull pen games.  Also the pitchers are working on pitches,  not what they can do well. I do not know, but I am guessing Topa is working on something, also getting a homerun or two, inflates the states in a SSS.  

Lets look at the positives:

1. Buxton - Looks healthy looks to be swinging well, and running well.  Homers and triples, sign me up.  

2. Correa - looks heathy.  Buxton and Correa as top 30 players if they stay healthy should really be a big help.  

3. Julien -  Looks to be replicating last year. 

4. Ober - wants to take over the #2 role.  His stuff is nasty.  

5.  Varland -  may take over the 5 spot and not give it up.  

No major injuries.  Only real set back is to Disco.  We will see if he can give us some innings this year or not and how successful he is.  

I will be keeping an eye on Kepler and Wallner.  However for now, I am very pleased with spring training.  This team will be very very good.  93-96 W is my guess.  

[Mike Sixel]

25 minutes ago, wabene said:

A vigilant, dispassionate observer. Very complicated person.

I am legion 

[jorgenswest]

We have learned that Buxton can play centerfield. That alleviated my biggest concern entering the spring.

I entered spring concerned about their line up against right handed pitching as well as their rotation depth. Those concerns remain.

[RpR]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not going to worry until May....I might not really worry at all...

Worrying is a waste of time, the Twins do what the Twins do, but what they will do and why is, can be, an eye raiser.

[wabene]

25 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

We have learned that Buxton can play centerfield. That alleviated my biggest concern entering the spring.

I entered spring concerned about their line up against right handed pitching as well as their rotation depth. Those concerns remain.

 

[Dman]

They have played a ton of depth guys to start this spring so they aren't worried about winning games just trying to see where guys are at so I am not concerned about the record.

I do agree with @stringer bell that I have my concerns about some of the bats.  Especially the bats that started slow last year in Correa, Kepler, Wallner.  I get that spring training numbers don't mean much, but guys struggling to get hits doesn't create confidence they will start the regular season well.

Like most have said there isn't much reason to worry. Everybody has time to get things right yet, and once the depth guys get sent down we'll see a bit more clearly how the regulars are going to perform.  

Every year some guys start slow and some start hot.  It usually all evens out over time.

[JD-TWINS]

Can’t be real worried about the Team’s record as there is little cohesive effort with line-ups & pitchers to try and win games. Everyone just getting work in prior to going north.

The combined batting average of our corner outfielders is .333. That’s Wallner - Margot - Kepler all 3 added together. Not great.

I’ve said a handful of times and still believe that Wallner is the starter in LF. That said, 2 hits in Spring Training and an average of .077 isn’t very encouraging. If he doesn’t show a flash of something in his next 10 AB’s he may very well get a confidence boost assignment to St. Paul. He’s struck out 13 times!!

Larnach is hitting at a reasonable level - maybe Wallner needs a walk-up call?

Larnach hitting well - Castro hitting well - Buxton hitting well………..that’s it for the potential outfielders. Buxton hit a line drive off the top of the left field fence this afternoon and mad a diving catch in CF to rob a single. Gosh, I hope he can hold up because he looks good.

Lewis - Kirilloff - Julien - Jeffers - Vazquez - Correa are all hitting just fine…………Kepler is an enigma……today he looked at 3 straight fastballs and was sitting down after 3 pitches. Hard to explain the ZERO swings. He’s going to play, regardless but Wallner & Margot need to get it together quickly!

Varland is the # 5 starter & Funderburk has a spot since Thielbar isn’t in games yet.

Lopez - 5 hits v. Rays today in 5 innings - 4 solo HR’s given up…….he’ll be OK. I think it’s pretty tough to have competitive focus when you know when you leave the game 6 guys you never met are playing defense and getting initial Spring Training AB’s for your team.

[Rosterman]

Winning is NOT everything in the spring. A minor league arm can give the game away. That being said, Lopez, Doran and Topa have been far from great, might just al be working on things. But Varland, Alcala, Durate have been solid in many ways.

Wallner has struck out 50%. Larnach is looking better. Humm. Otherwise, pretty comfortably with the offense. Like someone said, though...if doing a one-year pickup, Taylor would've been fine for $4m. But he waited to long to drop his expectations.

Spring train is TRAINING. ime to make some adjustments, try some new things, and just prep for the long season. You don't want to give some players too many innings out of the chute, but have them on a daily workout schedule to just get into playing shape, period. And face some opposition. That isn't jsut throwing batting practice.

[jkcarew]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Lopez - 5 hits v. Rays today in 5 innings - 4 solo HR’s given up…….he’ll be OK.

I hope so. He’s been getting hit hard pretty much every outing so far. Today was batting practice.

Probably just working on things, etc. I haven’t heard anything about velocity being down or anything?

[JD-TWINS]

1 minute ago, jkcarew said:

I hope so. He’s been getting hit hard pretty much every outing so far. Today was batting practice.

Probably just working on things, etc. I haven’t heard anything about velocity being down or anything?

I watched - his fastball looked OK. Hardly threw a sweeper the entire outing. It appeared he hung a couple change-ups and they got hammered. ………I didn’t see Arozarena’s first HR but his second was a first pitch fastball about 10” off the ground - he hammered it to straight away CF. Not a bad pitch but he seemed to be looking for a fastball down.

He was starting hitters with a vertical break curve ball - looked like he was just trying things & not super focused on getting outs. Fingers crossed on March 28.

[DocBauer]

I love having the Twins win games in the spring because I ALWAYS want the Twins to win. But over 40+ years watching ST results I've learned that ST means nothing. I've seen batters rake, and be bad the 1st week or so when the season began and then settle in. I've seen pitchers look bad or ordinary and then look great once the season start. What few recognize is sometime a pitcher throws 3 straight pitches to a batter that they might not ordinarily throw, but they're just TRYING something to see what they can do and what might happen. 

Wallner is off to a slow start. He's getting locked in, His 1st HR, I'm pretty sure was against a LHP. It's all about getting swings and IP and working on things. I  just don't pay much attention to the SSS of ST any longer. 

Spring training any longer is literally about AB and IP to get ready for the next season except for the 1 off who you hope for every year, like Castro last year. So NO, I'm not currently worried about ST results. 

[Fat Calvin]

Here are the top and bottom three teams in the Spring training final standings last year:

Grapefruit league, Top 3
St. Louis, 17 and 7
Atlanta, 18 and 10
Houston, 14 and 10

Grapefruit League, Bottom 3
Mets, 10 and 14
Pittsburgh, 9 and 18
Miami, 7 and 16

Cactus League, Top 2
LA, Angels 18 and 11
KC, 19 and 13
Cubs, 17 and 12

Cactus League, Bottom 3
Cleveland, 12 and 16
Colorado, 13 and 19
Oakland, 11 and 17

These are the facts. Make of them what you will.

[Bodie]

Even in meaningless games, I HATE to see Ks outnumbering hits, especially after last year's (and not just last season...) K-palooza.

I can remember when any player who did so was almost universally deemed to not be a real MLB player.  No clue what the consensus would be about a team doing so would be, but I can guess!

[Richie the Rally Goat]

4 hours ago, Bodie said:

Even in meaningless games, I HATE to see Ks outnumbering hits, especially after last year's (and not just last season...) K-palooza.

I can remember when any player who did so was almost universally deemed to not be a real MLB player.  No clue what the consensus would be about a team doing so would be, but I can guess!

The Twins led the league in Strikeouts last year 1,650 a record. Last year the MLB struck out 41,826 times, had 40,832 hits.  The average team struck out 1394 times, In 1902 the cumulative league struck out 1,290 times.

in 2023 the strikeout leaders also scored the 10th most runs league wide. Half of the top 10 run scoring teams were above average in number of strike outs.

 

https://www.baseball-almanac.com/hitting/histrk4.shtml

https://www.baseball-almanac.com/hitting/hihits3.shtml