The Time for Alex Kirilloff is Now, or It's Never

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins come into the 2024 season as favorites to repeat as AL Central winners. To convert that expectation to reality, they’ll need multiple players to step up, and it’s time Alex Kirilloff was among them.

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

Alex Kirilloff was drafted 15th overall in the 2016 MLB Draft. That was the final draft under the Terry Ryan regime, before the longtime GM was fired and (eventually) Derek Falvey was hired in his stead. Kirilloff was a polished hitter from Pennsylvania, and the high school product was expected to hit for both power and average.

Injuries made it a long road to the show for Kirilloff, but he debuted in the playoff series against the Astros in 2020. He then played 59 games as a rookie in 2021, before shutting it down with a wrist injury.

Now, with multiple surgeries behind him, Kirilloff comes into the 2024 campaign with a clean bill of health. Last year, he had a procedure to drastically address the wrist issue, breaking and shaving down the bone to alleviate discomfort. He posted a .793 OPS in a career-high 88 games. With the wrist issue behind him, it was a shoulder injury that hampered him down the stretch, and it may have been the cause for a Sonny Gray-crushing error in the postseason.

The critical error allowed Yordan Álvarez to reach, and the Houston Astros opened up the floodgates against Minnesota. After the Twins stole a game at Minute Maid Park on the road, the entire momentum of the series seemed to shift on that play. After the Twins signed an alternative to him over the winter, Kirilloff now has to prove himself anew both with wood and with leather.

Kirilloff is no longer a youngster. He will play 2024 at 26 years old, and while Carlos Santana isn’t a threat to his long-term viability at first base, the veteran is a significant defensive upgrade at the position. It will be on Kirilloff to learn from Santana and incorporate a similar level of defense at the position. Rocco Baldelli probably doesn't want to be forced into rigid use of Kirilloff as an everyday DH, and he's not much of an outfielder, either.

While Kirilloff did post a 117 OPS+ last season, it again came in fewer than 100 games. Being healthy is the focal point for Minnesota’s first baseman, but they need production both on defense and at the dish. There is a possibility that Edouard Julien will need to move to first base at some point, and Brooks Lee finding a place to play shuffles the infield as well. Kirilloff's hitting could provide insurance for Matt Wallner in left field, but all of the movement is contingent upon the lefty being healthy and productive.

Baldelli has placed Kirilloff in a platoon situation early in his career. Through 192 total games, Kirilloff has slashed just .202/.287/.343 in 157 plate appearances against southpaws. That won’t get the job done, and the .769 OPS against righties isn’t high enough to consider him dangerous on the positive side of a platoon, either. To justify his place as a DH or a limited defender at the game's easiest defensive position, Kirilloff has to be better in both splits.

Kirilloff was arbitration-eligible this season for the first time in his career, as a Super Two player. He is under team control through 2027, but to what extent Minnesota can count on him as part of the future could be determined mainly by his production in the season ahead. If the injuries are behind him and he can remain healthy, that would solve half of the problem. From there, Kirilloff showing improvement in the field and consistency at the plate is the other part needing to click.

There’s no denying the talent here, and Kirilloff’s swing is among the best things going when it’s right. If a player ever needed a breakout season in the biggest way, it’s this player, and his taking center stage could go a long way to push Minnesota toward their postseason goals in the season ahead.

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[bean5302]

It feels like the Twins have moved on from Kirilloff to me: Falvey said he wasn't considered a potential outfielder and the club brought in a medium floor, low ceiling every day guy in Santana to replace Kirilloff at 1B with Rocco making a comment the best defender gets the most plate appearances, that he doesn't see Santana as a platoon guy (even though Santana can't hit RHP) and the best defender is 99% going to be Santana.

At this point, it wouldn't shock me to see Kirilloff relegated to AAA depth like Larnach has been allowing the Twins to get more opportunities for other players they want to get a look at like Austin Martin.

[PatPfund]

Never might to too strong a word, but given the options already on the 40-man, and others like Lee pressing for that status very soon, Kirilloff is looking Larnach status (high prospect/had the job/bypassed/struggling to remain relevant) straight in the eye. Probably easier to keep the gig than have to re-sell the team on your talent.

[JD-TWINS]

I think an expansion of the ‘23 season, on the offensive side, will be adequate to make Kirilloff the guy at 1B v. RH pitching for a handful of years.

’23 numbers projected over 500 AB’s (281 in ‘23) in ‘24:

19 HR - 45 total XBH - .350 OBP - 120 OPS+

Potentially, 100 AB’s are from LF or DH in the line-up?

Not sure why one would suggest that his defense needs to improve going forward or he’s in peril of losing his spot there to Eddie Julien?

Hopefully, Santana will be a bit of a defensive mentor for him this year.

[bean5302]

Just now, PatPfund said:

Never might to too strong a word, but given the options already on the 40-man, and others like Lee pressing for that status very soon, Kirilloff is looking Larnach status (high prospect/had the job/bypassed/struggling to remain relevant) straight in the eye. Probably easier to keep the gig than have to re-sell the team on your talent.

I think "never" is probably appropriate. It's the "now" which is probably out of tune. "Last year or never" was probably more accurate. Kirilloff is really finding himself without guaranteed opportunity at this point so I don't think it's up to him on whether he gets a chance to prove himself. The way things are sounding out of camp, it might be a 50/50 between Miranda and Kirilloff and who looks better in spring training, but I'd still favor Kirilloff getting the platoon with Santana at 1B.

[nicksaviking]

He's going to have to hit really, really well AND stay healthy if he's going to be a DH only player. 

I wouldn't be surprised if he's moved before the season starts.

[JD-TWINS]

4 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

It feels like the Twins have moved on from Kirilloff to me: Falvey said he wasn't considered a potential outfielder and the club brought in a medium floor, low ceiling every day guy in Santana to replace Kirilloff at 1B with Rocco making a comment the best defender gets the most plate appearances, that he doesn't see Santana as a platoon guy (even though Santana can't hit RHP) and the best defender is 99% going to be Santana.

At this point, it wouldn't shock me to see Kirilloff relegated to AAA depth like Larnach has been allowing the Twins to get more opportunities for other players they want to get a look at like Austin Martin.

117 OPS+ & .348 OBP & 11 HR in 88 games in ‘23 - what’s the problem? …,…….possibly, Rocco was sending a motivational message to Alex to combat complacency & to keep Santana working hard for his playing time, as a proud veteran???

If Santana is a sub-standard hitter v. RH pitching, which he is, why would Kirilloff not play regularly at 1B or at least be in the line-up as DH 95% of the time v. RH pitching? Because Rocco said defense rules in Spring Training?

[JD-TWINS]

8 minutes ago, PatPfund said:

Never might to too strong a word, but given the options already on the 40-man, and others like Lee pressing for that status very soon, Kirilloff is looking Larnach status (high prospect/had the job/bypassed/struggling to remain relevant) straight in the eye. Probably easier to keep the gig than have to re-sell the team on your talent.

I don’t get the hate/lack of respect? He played 88 games, starting late coming off wrist surgery. He tore up his shoulder late in the year and looked bad in the playoffs as a result………..Buxton & Correa were hurt and looked terrible nearly the entire season.

117 OPS+ - .348 OBP - hit .270 ………..hardly Larnach type numbers.

Why is he not playing every day, if he stays healthy (granted, his issue!), at 1B or at DH at a minimum?

[Parfigliano]

Gaurantee they put Buxton at DH far more then AK no matter how badly Buxton fails.

[stringer bell]

If Buxton or any other regular is in the DH role vs. a RH starter, Kirilloff should be starting at first base. If he’s not, then the danger signals are going off for his future. 

[Twinsrtheworst]

45 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

It feels like the Twins have moved on from Kirilloff to me: Falvey said he wasn't considered a potential outfielder and the club brought in a medium floor, low ceiling every day guy in Santana to replace Kirilloff at 1B with Rocco making a comment the best defender gets the most plate appearances, that he doesn't see Santana as a platoon guy (even though Santana can't hit RHP) and the best defender is 99% going to be Santana.

At this point, it wouldn't shock me to see Kirilloff relegated to AAA depth like Larnach has been allowing the Twins to get more opportunities for other players they want to get a look at like Austin Martin.

Wasn't it said Santana would get more playing time at 1st base?  I believe Alex will get more ABs than Santana..just from different positions..DH

[Doctor Gast]

Although Santana isn't a long-term threat, he's hampering Kiriloff from really proving to the Twins that he fits into their future. Plus Miranda is hitting pretty well in spring training. For the easiest position on the field they are putting a lot of stock into 1B. Hopefully Kiriloff will still hit well this season & with his slight flexibility could make it hard for the Twins to go on from him.

[ashbury]

Baseball is a tough business sometimes.  It's a shame that AK's development has been marred by injury.  But even if the "excuses" are actual reasons, the time is high for some performance by him and some other mid-twenties guys like Larnach.  Whether on the 26-man roster or optioned to AAA, the only path forward for these bat-first players is to put up some good (majors) to monster (AAA) numbers.  If that's too much pressure, well, think ahead to the playoffs and consider whether pressure is any kind of excuse you want to listen to.

Hoping for the best for each of these players.  Get some BABIP "luck" to go with solid fundamental analytics numbers, and LFG!

[Karbo]

I would platoon AK with Santana. Santana hasn't hit RH pitchers very well at all in 2 out of the last 3 seasons. They should give AK plenty of time in the field simply to see if he can improve. I wouldn't be a bit surprised if he gets traded after the season if he puts up decent numbers.

[Fatbat]

Sooooo… at 26yo its now or never yet we sign guys all over their mid to late 30’s to fill out the 40 man.  AK is finally healthy and still has a sweet swing.  Allowing great health in ‘24, what is stopping him from having a huge breakout season in his early prime year.  He could simply mash all summer long leading to a .290ba, .350obp, .900 OPS and end the season with 550ab and a 135ops+ …. Not bad for a guy batting in the 5/6 spot. When he mashes, he makes our lineup really deep. 

[Brandon]

I think the now or never is if Killeroff is an everyday player or bench player.  backup corner OF/ DH/ pinch hitter.  Is he a 300 AB per season player or a full time 550 AB per season player.  a .793 OPS will keep you in the majors for a while.

Also by having Santana eat into Killeroffs playing time this year and coaching him up on defense at first will help keep his salary down should Killeroff improve up the .850 OPS range.  400 AB instead of 550 plus previous years and that will keep his salary down the following year more than paying for Santana in salary savings.  Either way the Twins win with the Santana signing.  

[Major League Ready]

He had the same wRC+ as Xander Bogaerts last year and 1 point less than Pete Alonso.  He has some ceiling left to reach but I would not characterize him as being in a make or break situation.

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I think "never" is probably appropriate. It's the "now" which is probably out of tune. "Last year or never" was probably more accurate. Kirilloff is really finding himself without guaranteed opportunity at this point so I don't think it's up to him on whether he gets a chance to prove himself. The way things are sounding out of camp, it might be a 50/50 between Miranda and Kirilloff and who looks better in spring training, but I'd still favor Kirilloff getting the platoon with Santana at 1B.

You don't think Kirilloff has a "guaranteed opportunity" vs right-handed pitchers in 2024? Who's the starting 9 against righties in your mind?

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

At this point, it wouldn't shock me to see Kirilloff relegated to AAA depth like Larnach has been allowing the Twins to get more opportunities for other players they want to get a look at like Austin Martin.

You honestly think the Twins are going to send Kirilloff to AAA after he OPS'd .858 against righties last year because they want to get a look at Martin? Health is the only thing that's held Kirilloff back. He hit 3rd in the lineup more than he hit in any other lineup spot last year. Followed by 4th and 2nd. He hit in the 2-4 hole in 74% of his starts last year and had an OPS+ of 117, but you think they've "moved on from him" and he'll be "relegated to AAA depth?" That'd be one of the boldest moves I've ever seen a baseball team make.

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, Brandon said:

I think the now or never is if Killeroff is an everyday player or bench player.  backup corner OF/ DH/ pinch hitter.  Is he a 300 AB per season player or a full time 550 AB per season player.  a .793 OPS will keep you in the majors for a while.

Also by having Santana eat into Killeroffs playing time this year and coaching him up on defense at first will help keep his salary down should Killeroff improve up the .850 OPS range.  400 AB instead of 550 plus previous years and that will keep his salary down the following year more than paying for Santana in salary savings.  Either way the Twins win with the Santana signing.  

Agreed. It all depends on Kirilloff's defense. He presently is a decent, not good or great, decent, bat for a 1B. He is not good defensively. Defense matters for a team with deep playoff run aspirations. His error against the Astros in Game 2 was very significant for the outcome of that series. He either needs to improve defensively so his current bat plays or he needs to hit at more of an .850 plus OPS clip to carry his glove as a part time 1B, part time DH. Improvement in both is really what he needs to do to become an everyday player.  

I sympathize with his injury history. Having said that, he's 26, not 23-24. He breaks through this year he's a part of the core. If he doesn't and Lee does, he's out of a position, probably not part of the core going forward, and becomes trade bait. the sports (and business) worlds can be cruel. I hope he really breaks out and he can be part of the next 5 Twins teams. I think he has this year to show that and it's not starting out well in ST on the glove side.  If he doesn't get off to a good start soon, it wouldn't surprise me if he got traded to a non-playoff team or to one hurting for offense (think Miami) as part of a package for pitching.  

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

Sooooo… at 26yo its now or never yet we sign guys all over their mid to late 30’s to fill out the 40 man.  AK is finally healthy and still has a sweet swing.  Allowing great health in ‘24, what is stopping him from having a huge breakout season in his early prime year.  He could simply mash all summer long leading to a .290ba, .350obp, .900 OPS and end the season with 550ab and a 135ops+ …. Not bad for a guy batting in the 5/6 spot. When he mashes, he makes our lineup really deep. 

Isn't that the definition of now or never? He he does that and I believe everybody wants and hopes for him to do it, it is the Now, but if the Twins get another season of injury and less than expected results while healthy (21,22) it probably is the never side of the equation. So AK stay healthy and hit well.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

He had the same wRC+ as Xander Bogaerts last year and 1 point less than Pete Alonso.  He has some ceiling left to reach but I would not characterize him as being in a make or break situation.

665, 658, 318 those are the plate appearances for those 3, I don't think it is fair or honest to compare him to those two when they had double his plate appearances. With that said if he can stay healthy and come close to that production while doubling his plate appearances, the conversation will quickly turn to how much it is going to cost to extend him.

[Trov]

This has to be the season he shows he can be counted on or he will be relegated to bench guy.  We had high hopes for him but he never was able to stay healthy.  Although we do not have clear long term answers at first, it is a position that people get moved to when they can hit but fielding is ehh.  We brought in Santana due to his defense and if AK can start to actually hit well he will get more reps at first, but he will have much less time to work with. 

[TwinsDr2021]

9 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Agreed. It all depends on Kirilloff's defense. He presently is a decent, not good or great, decent, bat for a 1B. He is not good defensively. Defense matters for a team with deep playoff run aspirations. His error against the Astros in Game 2 was very significant for the outcome of that series. He either needs to improve defensively so his current bat plays or he needs to hit at more of an .850 plus OPS clip to carry his glove as a part time 1B, part time DH. Improvement in both is really what he needs to do to become an everyday player.  

I sympathize with his injury history. Having said that, he's 26, not 23-24. He breaks through this year he's a part of the core. If he doesn't and Lee does, he's out of a position, probably not part of the core going forward, and becomes trade bait. the sports (and business) worlds can be cruel. I hope he really breaks out and he can be part of the next 5 Twins teams. I think he has this year to show that and it's not starting out well in ST on the glove side.  If he doesn't get off to a good start soon, it wouldn't surprise me if he got traded to a non-playoff team or to one hurting for offense (think Miami) as part of a package for pitching.  

I don't think AK's career with the Twins or anywhere else depends on defense, IMO depends completely on health and doing what he is expected to with the bat, because if his bat is what we all hope the Twins and other teams will find a spot for him.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

It's kind of like back in the day when Charles Barkley said that he knew that if he was leading the SEC in rebounding, his grades would be fine.  In the same way if Kirilloff puts up a .900 OPS, his defense will be fine.  The problem is multifaceted.  He's occasionally be very productive, but he's been hurt a lot, which makes him unavailable.  He was drafted to be a bat first player, and when he stops having the bat to make up for the glove, he becomes a lot less valuable and his defensive prowess (or lack thereof) starts to matter a lot more. 

I agree that this is probably it for him.  He either hits (and is healthy), or finds himself replaced by another player who will.  The presence of Santana is not a big deal, but the Twins have plenty of good infielders who might take over 1B and never give it back.   

[Riverbrian]

It is a HUGE year for Kirilloff. 

1 Option Left

He has 1 option left. 

Let me repeat that... He has 1 option left. 

If he burns that option this year. It will mean that something went wrong and that would mean he would be a 26 man decision next off-season coming off a year where things went wrong. 

The team has to believe in him at that point... kinda like they believed in Nick Gordon to commit to him. As we all remember with Nick Gordon... I know it was a long time ago... but as we all remember with Nick Gordon. Having to commit a roster spot to him was a high wire act. With no options remaining, the only way that he can keep the wolves away is to grab a job with both hands. Hard to do that when you can't hit lefties or hurt. 

Those youngsters on the farm are going to keep coming just waiting for a stumble. 

It's a huge year for Kirilloff and it isn't because he booted a ball against Houston in the playoffs. He needs to hit and he needs to stay healthy. It's a HUGE year for Kirilloff. 

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Isn't that the definition of now or never? He he does that and I believe everybody wants and hopes for him to do it, it is the Now, but if the Twins get another season of injury and less than expected results while healthy (21,22) it probably is the never side of the equation. So AK stay healthy and hit well.

Team control until ‘28 so if he just has a soso season, his trade value will be weak and the FO will spend another yr or 2 trying to fix him. 

[bean5302]

Kirilloff obviously has his huge fans, but the front office has taken several steps recently that show they do not believe in him. This is not me declaring Kirilloff some sort of lost cause. This is my interpretation of what appears be a lack of faith and commitment to the player based on quotes and transactions from the front office. First, declaring he's not an outfielder candidate. If they believed Kirilloff's bat was going to play, the Twins have proven defense isn't a critical component to opportunity. Second, picking up a pretty low ceiling guy in Santana to play 1B eliminating Kirilloff's only viable full time defensive position. Third, essentially declaring Santana as the every day starting 1B who will not be platooned, wiping out Kirilloff's best road to plate appearances. The Athletic has reported they expect Kirilloff will get pretty regular at bats as a DH, but he's going to be platooning there, and quite frankly, Jose Miranda owned a wRC+ of 110 in 344 PA against righties in 2022 .

As I mentioned, but I think people were so mad they didn't read, I'd like Kirilloff in a platoon split with Santana because Kirilloff can hit righties, but Santana can't. Miranda (if last year's shoulder actually was the issue) can hit both.

In any case, we can cherry pick last year's vs. RHP numbers for Kirilloff, but I don't think 263 plate appearances is the best sample size given it comes with a .368 BABIP. The reality is he doesn't take walks, can't hit left handed pitching, has mediocre power because he hits liners rather than fly balls, and his career wRC+ is 112 in 549 PA with a more reasonable .335 BABIP vs. RHP based on a lackluster .274/.328/.440 OPS .768 (ISO .168). To me, Kirilloff looks like a DH only version of Eric Hosmer who must be platooned, and only plays 80 games a year because of injury. I also think that's what the Twins' front office sees at this point based on how many avenues for Kirilloff to see playing time have been eliminated.
 

[Linus]

I think all of the stated opinions are plausible. AK has shown signs of being an elite hitter and then not. Due to his injuries it’s really difficult to get a read on that. It’s an important factor because he is showing to be a player without much defensive value. I’m holding out hope he will get better at first - many scouts thought he had the tools to be a fine first baseman. He is not an outfielder: slow, poor arm and bad routes. The other factor is that we might need a new home for Julien next year. All in all AK has to hit and hit well if he wants to be a first baseman / DH in this league and the clock is ticking. 

[cheeseheadgophfan]

Well....i for one, think AK has more hitting talent than just about any guy on the roster.   Having a bum wrist is the worst possible injury for a hitter.  He also seems to be a little distant or aloof which may not have endeared him to Rocco.

I'm hoping for a healthy 24 season so he can showcase what he can really do.

[stringer bell]

I am a big Kirilloff fan and I concur with those saying this year is huge for his future with the Twins. 
 

What I visualize to start the year will be AK in the starting lineup nearly 100% of the time against right handed pitching, at DH when Santana is at first and at first when any of the penciled-in regulars are DHing (Buxton, Lewis, Kepler, Wallner or Julien). Santana will pinch hit for Kirilloff when a lefty enters and I doubt Rocco will hit for Santana ever, so AK will get less than strict platoon at-bats. 
 

Kirilloff needs to sustain his hitting vs. right handers and improve against lefties and on defense. That’s all doable with good health. Yes, there is some pressure, but I believe this guy can be a really good player with good health.