What Do the Twins Have in Reliever Justin Topa?

[Cody Schoenmann]

How significant of a role will the recently acquired reliever play for the Twins in 2024, and which matchups suit him best?

Image courtesy of © Stephen Brashear - USA Today Sports

On Monday evening, Jeff Passan of ESPN reported that the Twins had traded second baseman Jorge Polanco to the Seattle Mariners, for right-handed pitchers Anthony DeSclafani and Justin Topa and prospects Gabriel González (79th-ranked prospect on MLB.com) and Darren Bowen. Immediately, MLB pundits and fans began frantically dissecting the trade, attempting to rationalize it for both parties. Polanco will become the Mariners' everyday second baseman; DeSclafani will likely slot in as the Twins' fifth starter, and Gonzalez and Bowen will jump into the Twins' top prospect lists, with plans to continue developing as members of a new farm system.

As plans continue to get laid out, it is important not to overshadow the most underrated player involved in the trade: Topa. Drafted in the 17th round of the 2013 MLB Draft by the Pittsburgh Pirates, Topa didn't make his MLB debut until 2020, with the Milwaukee Brewers. Spread across his age 29, 30, and 31 seasons, Topa pitched only 17 1/3 combined innings with the Brewers, averaging a 12.32 ERA, 3.63 xERA, 5.56 FIP, and 4.52 xFIP over 88 total batters faced. Eventually, the Brewers traded Topa to the Mariners for prospect Joseph Hernandez, before the 2023 season. 

Upon landing in Seattle, Topa broke out, generating a 2.61 ERA, 2.93 xERA, 3.15 FIP, and 3.55 xFIP over 69 innings pitched and 279 total batters faced with the contending Mariners. Topa's splits in specific statistics between 2022 further emphasize his substantial performance improvement. In 7 1/3 innings pitched with the Brewers in 2022, Topa posted a 4.91 K/9 and 4.91 BB/9, while leaving only 53.8% of runners on base. Only a season later, Topa spiked to a 7.98 K/9, lowered his BB/9 to a mere 2.35, and left 73.3% of runners on base in a much larger sample size. 

Nicknamed "Topaz" in Seattle, the 32-year-old hurler proved to be a hidden gem during his emergent rookie campaign, despite not dramatically altering his motion or increasing his velocity. During the 2022 offseason, Topa mixed a cutter into his pitching repertoire, and it quickly became his best pitch. Topa's sinker doesn't miss bats, per se. Yet, he gets positive outcomes with it repeatedly, through pinpoint precision, generating a +10 run value on the pitch, making it the 18th most effective sinker in baseball last season. Interestingly, most of Topa's positive outcomes were generated by getting hitters to ground out. 

Topa's sinker generated a 69.5% groundball rate in 2023. Mixing his sinker (which he used 44.6% of the time) with his slider, cutter, and changeup, Topa manufactured a 56.7% overall groundball rate, generating the 41st-highest groundball rate in 2023 among pitchers with at least 10 innings pitched. Using the same minimum number of innings pitched, the only Twins reliever with a higher groundball rate than Topa in 2023 was Jhoan Durán, who finished fourth among those who qualified, with a 65.9% groundball rate. Very unlike Durán, though, Topa comes from a very lot slot--essentially a side-arm one, though he stays tall through his delivery. Of 375 pitchers who faced at least 200 batters last year, only 15 had a lower average release point than Topa.

An intriguing juxtaposition to a bullpen constructed of predominately flyball relievers, Topa will provide a unique skill set that was relatively absent, beyond Durán. Suppose the Twins' primary defensive infield combination of Royce Lewis at third, Carlos Correa at shortstop, Edouard Julien at second base, and Alex Kirilloff at first base can improve on a somewhat subpar year defensive output in 2023. In that case, there is reason to suspect Topa could thrive in Minnesota.

The Twins relied heavily on the platoon advantage when constructing lineups, pinch-hitting, and deciding which relievers to use in each scenario. Assuming the team acts in the same manner in 2024, there is reason to suspect Topa may be one of the team's platoon-proof relievers. To further explain, here are Topa's splits in 2023:

• Versus LHH: .216/.307/.352, 101 batters faced, 23 strikeouts, 19 hits, ten walks, and two home runs
• Versus RHH: .253/.288/.313, 178 batters faced, 38 strikeouts, 42 hits, eight walks, and two home runs

When looking at the Twins' bullpen hierarchy, there is reason to believe Topa will effectively become a one-for-one replacement for Emilio Pagán, joining the mix of Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, and Caleb Thielbar as the team's primary high-leverage supporting cast in front of Durán. Topa thrived with the Mariners in 2023, and although the Long Island University product only has one year of sustained success, it appears the Twins will be comfortable handing him a significant role in their 2024 bullpen. 

The acquisition of Topa, who has three years of team control and is eligible to be optioned to the minors for two more seasons, was a savvy addition by the Twins front office. In parting with Polanco, the Twins provided depth to their starting rotation while fortifying their bullpen, two of the team's most significant areas of need this offseason. Acquiring a fifth starter and high-leverage reliever while bolstering an already strong farm system is an impressive tightrope act by the club's decision-makers.

Amid the spectacle of parting ways with the longest-tenured active Twin, the organization acquired four players, two of whom are slated to be immediate contributors. Although DeSclafani's success as a starter will need to carry more weight toward the team's ability to succeed in 2024, Topa will step into a role where the ability to produce at a positive rate will be necessary if he wants to become and stay one of the Twins primary high-leverage relievers.

What do you think of the Twins trading Polanco to the Mariners? How will Topa perform in 2024? Will he pitch the same number of innings Pagán threw in 2023? Join the discussion and comment below.

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[arby58]

Nice analysis - I had the same general belief that he would fill a Pagan-like role. in fact, both Pagan and Topa threw 69 innings last year. Griffin Jax threw 65 and Duran 62, so they effectively replaced their relief 'innings eater.' One difference is Topa had a 2.61 ERA, while Pagan's was a slightly higher 2.99 (admittedly inflated a bit by one really bad outing).

[JD-TWINS]

69 innings is great combined with an ERA under 3.00. If he regresses he’s still sub 4.00 ERA which is a nice addition! This guy with the couple of flier signings for relievers and Alcala - Canterino - Winder - Sands - Balazovic they ought to net 3 guys for the staff out of these 8 arms.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

So he developed a cutter in 2022 that has become his best pitch.  That does increase the likelihood of continued success.  

[Karbo]

Not sold on Topa yet. There are many players that have had a good season only to fall flat afterward. Hope that's not the case. Desclafini has been sub par for the last few years, plagued by injuries. If either one pans out this will be a successful trade. Now what will they use the 8 mil they got as part of the deal, and what about Varland?

[roger]

Underrated?  Not to me, heck, he probably will give the Twins the biggest return in 2024 from any of the four new guys.  Along with the handful of guys already brought in for the pen via waivers, the bullpen should now be set.

I know there has been lots of gripping about what the Twins are getting for Polo.  Yes, they aren't getting that Lopez quality starter.  But does anyone really believe that there was a better deal to be had and the Twins didn't take it?

Loved Polo and like Luis last year, will miss him.  But the fact is that the Twins offense will likely be as productive without him as it would be had he stayed.  Also means the Twins should now have two roster spots at the end of spring training for Miranda, Larnach or Gordon, not just one.

[roger]

3 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Not sold on Topa yet. There are many players that have had a good season only to fall flat afterward. Hope that's not the case. Desclafini has been sub par for the last few years, plagued by injuries. If either one pans out this will be a successful trade. Now what will they use the 8 mil they got as part of the deal, and what about Varland?

Now the Twins can use Varland like I was hoping for all offseason.  That begins in St. Paul's starting rotation.  Gets called up several times to make anywhere from a few to a dozen starts for the Twins in doubleheaders or when Pitcher X is out for a few weeks or Paddack/Ober need to rest their arms for a week or two.  Come August, Varland moves to the pen in St. Paul for a couple weeks then joins the Twins as another shut down late inning reliever for the playoffs.

[mikelink45]

Too many things I do not know so I cannot judge if he is a one season wonder of building a strong BP resume.  Let's hope it is the latter.  The BP is still a mystery so I am anxious to get the preseason started.

[jmlease1]

Topa is a really interesting acquisition. He hasn't been good until last season, but he added a new pitch which has been effective for him and threw more innings last season than his previous 3 combined. So do you weight the good year (where he threw a bunch) or the bad years (where he barely threw at all)?

Some guys just develop late (we should have him locker next to Thielbar).

I do like his different arm angle and the gazillion groundballs. I think there's value in having pitchers who don't have the same profiles, as awesome as it is to have guys throwing upper-90's, facing a guy with a sidearm angle you've only seen rarely can be very effective no matter how many simulated swings you take between innings against the machine.

As a cheap, controllable replacement for Pagan, I kinda like it.

[Ricky Vaughn]

He has a hard time staying healthy. I read somewhere that he's had Tommy John surgery twice among various other injuries. If he stays healthy there's hope. There must be something of value there as Milwaukee kept him through 3 years   of being injured before giving up on him.

[HerbieFan]

To be clear, Gabby Gonzalez is likely the big ticket item in this trade.  Love Polo as much as anyone but, from a baseball and business perspective, the trade makes sense on so many levels.

[h2oface]

A one year flash in the pan? That’s all he has got so far. We got him now to find out. 

[Fatbat]

Based on fans in Seattle not liking Topa being traded away, it seems that he is going to be a fan favorite here.  It seems he likes the high leverage situations so he might end up right next to Jax as a stopper. I am liking this trade more and more. 

[jaydanger37]

When I first heard the trade news, I knew little to nothing about Topa, but the more I hear, the more I like the trade. Thanks for this excellent breakdown!

[nicksaviking]

If nothing else comes from this trade, getting a reliever locked into the pen should help the team immediately start ridding themselves of that gaggle of control deficient relief retreads they signed en masse two weeks ago.

I swear I'm not a completely heartless guy, but I had (and still have) no interest in any of them making the team.

[hitterscount]

3 hours ago, roger said:

Now the Twins can use Varland like I was hoping for all offseason.  That begins in St. Paul's starting rotation.  Gets called up several times to make anywhere from a few to a dozen starts for the Twins in doubleheaders or when Pitcher X is out for a few weeks or Paddack/Ober need to rest their arms for a week or two.  Come August, Varland moves to the pen in St. Paul for a couple weeks then joins the Twins as another shut down late inning reliever for the playoffs.

What does it say about Varland if he cannot beat out DeSclafani? DeSclafani has been nothing more than a #5 starter for several years., maybe a step above Archer, Bundy... maybe. 

Wasn't thrilled with the trade, but Topa does help the BP.  Will be waiting for another trade that helps the SP.   

[Nashvilletwin]

Actually, the Twins now have six 7th-9th inning relievers on the roster if we include Varland and Stewart. The addition of DeSclafani means we can add both Varland and Topa into our late inning, high leverage mix.

Shut down bullpens win lots of games. The Twins 2024 relief corp is shaping up to be the best heading into a new season in many, many years.   

[jorgenswest]

I looked for a reliever that had similar ground ball rates, strike out rates and walk rates. These are numbers I know stabilize in the sample of a relief season.

Justin Topa 

19.8 K%, 6.8 BB%, 56.7 GB%

Dylan Floro

23.4% K%, 6.9 BB%, 54.4 BG%

Topa’s ERA estimators (xERA, FIP, xFIP) ranged from 2.93 to 3.55. Floro’s ranged from 2.96 to 3.38. ZIPs projects both for 0.1 WAR. Steamer projects Topa for 0.2 and Floro for 0.3 WAR

Topa will make 1.25 million. Floro 2.25 million.

They are both entering their age 33 seasons.

 

 

[DocBauer]

Jmlease1 completely stole my post! Lol

Just going to echo I like have different kinds of arms on the team. Different breaking pitches, different arm angles, etc. And while a bunch of K's are always nice, there can be major rewards from a ground ball pitcher as well, to state the obvious. Keeping a run from advancing, turning double plays, etc. And it looks like he can also get the K's. The quality splits are very nice.

The only 1yr factor bothers me. But couldn't we say the same thing about Stewart? But when an arm is healthy and proves itself, one year or not, I tend to have faith in that arm.

How good is this pen if Staumont actually recovers from his surgery and looks like his previous Royals self? And that's before a possible/likely Canterino addition at some point.

[Guest]

Topa is not a Pagan replacement. Topa is a groundball pitcher, Pagan was a flyball pitcher. Pagan had a rubber arm and could pitch three days in a row. Can Topa do that? I am looking forward to Topa being effective this year and in years to come.

[Linus]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

I looked for a reliever that had similar ground ball rates, strike out rates and walk rates. These are numbers I know stabilize in the sample of a relief season.

Justin Topa 

19.8 K%, 6.8 BB%, 56.7 GB%

Dylan Floro

23.4% K%, 6.9 BB%, 54.4 BG%

Topa’s ERA estimators (xERA, FIP, xFIP) ranged from 2.93 to 3.55. Floro’s ranged from 2.96 to 3.38. ZIPs projects both for 0.1 WAR. Steamer projects Topa for 0.2 and Floro for 0.3 WAR

Topa will make 1.25 million. Floro 2.25 million.

They are both entering their age 33 seasons.

 

 

You had to go and do that didn’t ya?  Just when I was warming to the bullpen being better aspect of this trade. 

[darin617]

Just wait until he comes to Spring Training and learns the sweeper and sprinkler. Gonna be sick.

[tony&rodney]

My only concern about Topa and DeSclafani is that the Twins don't use/keep them just because they traded for them. Topa has options, which is good. He had a good rookie year last season but struggled mightily for a decade prior. Giving DeSclafani starts over Varland would be pretty egregious at this point unless Louie is injured or just can't find the plate in March. No scholarships. Let the best players earn their positions.

[wabene]

6 hours ago, hitterscount said:

What does it say about Varland if he cannot beat out DeSclafani? DeSclafani has been nothing more than a #5 starter for several years., maybe a step above Archer, Bundy... maybe. 

[tony&rodney]

6 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I looked for a reliever that had similar ground ball rates, strike out rates and walk rates. These are numbers I know stabilize in the sample of a relief season.

Justin Topa 

19.8 K%, 6.8 BB%, 56.7 GB%

Dylan Floro

23.4% K%, 6.9 BB%, 54.4 BG%

Topa’s ERA estimators (xERA, FIP, xFIP) ranged from 2.93 to 3.55. Floro’s ranged from 2.96 to 3.38. ZIPs projects both for 0.1 WAR. Steamer projects Topa for 0.2 and Floro for 0.3 WAR

Topa will make 1.25 million. Floro 2.25 million.

They are both entering their age 33 seasons.

 

 

Excellent comparison.

[jorgenswest]

4 hours ago, Linus said:

You had to go and do that didn’t ya?  Just when I was warming to the bullpen being better aspect of this trade. 

Flora has been a useful reliever. When with the Dodgers he made their World Series roster in two seasons and pitched in 5 of those games.

We didn't see the best of Floro and our defense behind him let him down a few times. A groundball pitcher counts on the defense. His FIP and xFIP with the Twins was in the 3s. His career ERA is 3.42

If Topa gives the Twins innings and an ERA below 4 he will be a useful middle inning reliever. This is something they could have found in free agency but save a million or two compared to what they might have spent on the free agent market.

[Jamie Cameron]

Great read, Cody.

[Brandon]

Topa is Seattle’s pitcher version of their very own Rich Amaral. 
 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/amarari01.shtml

[RaoulDuke]

Topa looks like he will be a nice addition.  Seems like the cutter unlocked him to have a pitch in between the sinker and slider.  I like that he is pretty much a sidearmer and groundball specialist as well, gives yet another look out of the back end of the pen

Duran

Stewart

Jax

Topa

Theilbar

Varland? (if he isn't stretched out)

Staumont/ Alcala/ Funderburk

That is a pretty decent pen all the way through.  There are question marks on injuries, age, and sustaining success but there are are also a lot of options when something doesn't break right.

[Major League Ready]

15 hours ago, hitterscount said:

What does it say about Varland if he cannot beat out DeSclafani? DeSclafani has been nothing more than a #5 starter for several years., maybe a step above Archer, Bundy... maybe. 

Wasn't thrilled with the trade, but Topa does help the BP.  Will be waiting for another trade that helps the SP.   

I think you need put DeSclafani’s past performance in context  He was injured all of 2022 and pitchers quite often don’t perform at full potential the first year back from a major injury.  He produced 3 fWAR / 4.3 bWAR in 2021 and ranked 41st in terms of WAR in 2021.  That’s far from a 5 and he had 4 seasons with an ERA from 3.17-4.05.  I think we would be just fine in he produced an ERA of 4.00 this year.

Where Varland is concerned, He might be as likely to perform as DeSclafani but starting DeSclafani and putting Varland in the pen or even starting him in STP improves the team.  Varland either improves the BP or gives us much needed pitching depth.