What Do the Twins Have in Reliever Justin Topa?

So he developed a cutter in 2022 that has become his best pitch.  That does increase the likelihood of continued success.  

Underrated?  Not to me, heck, he probably will give the Twins the biggest return in 2024 from any of the four new guys.  Along with the handful of guys already brought in for the pen via waivers, the bullpen should now be set.

I know there has been lots of gripping about what the Twins are getting for Polo.  Yes, they aren't getting that Lopez quality starter.  But does anyone really believe that there was a better deal to be had and the Twins didn't take it?

Loved Polo and like Luis last year, will miss him.  But the fact is that the Twins offense will likely be as productive without him as it would be had he stayed.  Also means the Twins should now have two roster spots at the end of spring training for Miranda, Larnach or Gordon, not just one.

3 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Not sold on Topa yet. There are many players that have had a good season only to fall flat afterward. Hope that's not the case. Desclafini has been sub par for the last few years, plagued by injuries. If either one pans out this will be a successful trade. Now what will they use the 8 mil they got as part of the deal, and what about Varland?

Now the Twins can use Varland like I was hoping for all offseason.  That begins in St. Paul's starting rotation.  Gets called up several times to make anywhere from a few to a dozen starts for the Twins in doubleheaders or when Pitcher X is out for a few weeks or Paddack/Ober need to rest their arms for a week or two.  Come August, Varland moves to the pen in St. Paul for a couple weeks then joins the Twins as another shut down late inning reliever for the playoffs.

Topa is a really interesting acquisition. He hasn't been good until last season, but he added a new pitch which has been effective for him and threw more innings last season than his previous 3 combined. So do you weight the good year (where he threw a bunch) or the bad years (where he barely threw at all)?

Some guys just develop late (we should have him locker next to Thielbar).

I do like his different arm angle and the gazillion groundballs. I think there's value in having pitchers who don't have the same profiles, as awesome as it is to have guys throwing upper-90's, facing a guy with a sidearm angle you've only seen rarely can be very effective no matter how many simulated swings you take between innings against the machine.

As a cheap, controllable replacement for Pagan, I kinda like it.

He has a hard time staying healthy. I read somewhere that he's had Tommy John surgery twice among various other injuries. If he stays healthy there's hope. There must be something of value there as Milwaukee kept him through 3 years   of being injured before giving up on him.

To be clear, Gabby Gonzalez is likely the big ticket item in this trade.  Love Polo as much as anyone but, from a baseball and business perspective, the trade makes sense on so many levels.

Based on fans in Seattle not liking Topa being traded away, it seems that he is going to be a fan favorite here.  It seems he likes the high leverage situations so he might end up right next to Jax as a stopper. I am liking this trade more and more. 

3 hours ago, roger said:

Now the Twins can use Varland like I was hoping for all offseason.  That begins in St. Paul's starting rotation.  Gets called up several times to make anywhere from a few to a dozen starts for the Twins in doubleheaders or when Pitcher X is out for a few weeks or Paddack/Ober need to rest their arms for a week or two.  Come August, Varland moves to the pen in St. Paul for a couple weeks then joins the Twins as another shut down late inning reliever for the playoffs.

What does it say about Varland if he cannot beat out DeSclafani? DeSclafani has been nothing more than a #5 starter for several years., maybe a step above Archer, Bundy... maybe. 

Wasn't thrilled with the trade, but Topa does help the BP.  Will be waiting for another trade that helps the SP.   

Actually, the Twins now have six 7th-9th inning relievers on the roster if we include Varland and Stewart. The addition of DeSclafani means we can add both Varland and Topa into our late inning, high leverage mix.

Shut down bullpens win lots of games. The Twins 2024 relief corp is shaping up to be the best heading into a new season in many, many years.   

I looked for a reliever that had similar ground ball rates, strike out rates and walk rates. These are numbers I know stabilize in the sample of a relief season.

Justin Topa 

19.8 K%, 6.8 BB%, 56.7 GB%

Dylan Floro

23.4% K%, 6.9 BB%, 54.4 BG%

Topa’s ERA estimators (xERA, FIP, xFIP) ranged from 2.93 to 3.55. Floro’s ranged from 2.96 to 3.38. ZIPs projects both for 0.1 WAR. Steamer projects Topa for 0.2 and Floro for 0.3 WAR

Topa will make 1.25 million. Floro 2.25 million.

They are both entering their age 33 seasons.

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

I looked for a reliever that had similar ground ball rates, strike out rates and walk rates. These are numbers I know stabilize in the sample of a relief season.

Justin Topa 

19.8 K%, 6.8 BB%, 56.7 GB%

Dylan Floro

23.4% K%, 6.9 BB%, 54.4 BG%

Topa’s ERA estimators (xERA, FIP, xFIP) ranged from 2.93 to 3.55. Floro’s ranged from 2.96 to 3.38. ZIPs projects both for 0.1 WAR. Steamer projects Topa for 0.2 and Floro for 0.3 WAR

Topa will make 1.25 million. Floro 2.25 million.

They are both entering their age 33 seasons.

 

 

You had to go and do that didn’t ya?  Just when I was warming to the bullpen being better aspect of this trade. 

Just wait until he comes to Spring Training and learns the sweeper and sprinkler. Gonna be sick.

My only concern about Topa and DeSclafani is that the Twins don't use/keep them just because they traded for them. Topa has options, which is good. He had a good rookie year last season but struggled mightily for a decade prior. Giving DeSclafani starts over Varland would be pretty egregious at this point unless Louie is injured or just can't find the plate in March. No scholarships. Let the best players earn their positions.

6 hours ago, hitterscount said:

What does it say about Varland if he cannot beat out DeSclafani? DeSclafani has been nothing more than a #5 starter for several years., maybe a step above Archer, Bundy... maybe. 

6 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I looked for a reliever that had similar ground ball rates, strike out rates and walk rates. These are numbers I know stabilize in the sample of a relief season.

Justin Topa 

19.8 K%, 6.8 BB%, 56.7 GB%

Dylan Floro

23.4% K%, 6.9 BB%, 54.4 BG%

Topa’s ERA estimators (xERA, FIP, xFIP) ranged from 2.93 to 3.55. Floro’s ranged from 2.96 to 3.38. ZIPs projects both for 0.1 WAR. Steamer projects Topa for 0.2 and Floro for 0.3 WAR

Topa will make 1.25 million. Floro 2.25 million.

They are both entering their age 33 seasons.

 

 

Excellent comparison.

4 hours ago, Linus said:

You had to go and do that didn’t ya?  Just when I was warming to the bullpen being better aspect of this trade. 

Flora has been a useful reliever. When with the Dodgers he made their World Series roster in two seasons and pitched in 5 of those games.

We didn't see the best of Floro and our defense behind him let him down a few times. A groundball pitcher counts on the defense. His FIP and xFIP with the Twins was in the 3s. His career ERA is 3.42

If Topa gives the Twins innings and an ERA below 4 he will be a useful middle inning reliever. This is something they could have found in free agency but save a million or two compared to what they might have spent on the free agent market.

Topa is Seattle’s pitcher version of their very own Rich Amaral. 
 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/amarari01.shtml

Topa looks like he will be a nice addition.  Seems like the cutter unlocked him to have a pitch in between the sinker and slider.  I like that he is pretty much a sidearmer and groundball specialist as well, gives yet another look out of the back end of the pen

Duran

Stewart

Jax

Topa

Theilbar

Varland? (if he isn't stretched out)

Staumont/ Alcala/ Funderburk

That is a pretty decent pen all the way through.  There are question marks on injuries, age, and sustaining success but there are are also a lot of options when something doesn't break right.

15 hours ago, hitterscount said:

What does it say about Varland if he cannot beat out DeSclafani? DeSclafani has been nothing more than a #5 starter for several years., maybe a step above Archer, Bundy... maybe. 

Wasn't thrilled with the trade, but Topa does help the BP.  Will be waiting for another trade that helps the SP.   

I think you need put DeSclafani’s past performance in context  He was injured all of 2022 and pitchers quite often don’t perform at full potential the first year back from a major injury.  He produced 3 fWAR / 4.3 bWAR in 2021 and ranked 41st in terms of WAR in 2021.  That’s far from a 5 and he had 4 seasons with an ERA from 3.17-4.05.  I think we would be just fine in he produced an ERA of 4.00 this year.

Where Varland is concerned, He might be as likely to perform as DeSclafani but starting DeSclafani and putting Varland in the pen or even starting him in STP improves the team.  Varland either improves the BP or gives us much needed pitching depth. 
 

The trade makes sense  given the Twins desire to move 
Polanco’s salary. Topa provides a proven arm in a BP that should be very solid. It looks like the addition of DiSclafani pushes Varland to the BP, where he could be electric like he was at the end of last year. Hopefully Canterino, Balazovic, Winder or someone else also emerges to provide a high 90’s arm to the BP. Still the loss of Gray and Maeda has weakened the starting pitching, and DiSclafani is unlikely to make up for that. Right now the plan appears to be to have back end starters pitch 4-5 innings and count on the bullpen to win the game, similar to what KC did in 2014-15 in their World Series run. That would require a constant flow of arms from AAA to keep everyone fresh.