How Valuable Can Austin Martin be to the 2024 Twins?

[Jamie Cameron]

The Twins' self-imposed payroll restrictions have moved Austin Martin closer to an MLB debut in 2024. What value can he offer? Will his offensive game translate the the big leagues? Let's dig in.

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints

Austin Martin has become an interesting centerpiece of Twins-related offseason discussion. The ongoing TV ordeal has rendered a typically patient front office immobile, stifling momentum after an exciting 2023 campaign. Beyond the Twins' most glaring need (a pitcher capable of starting a playoff game), there remains the issue of center field depth. Harrison Bader and Kevin Keirmaier are off the board. While Michael A. Taylor is still available, Martin finds himself on the doorstep of the majors. Whether he can be more than a fringy role player in the big leagues is about to become an important question, so let's try to answer it.

Let’s start with the basics of Martin’s 2023 season. After overcoming injury and the Twins' failed attempts to get him to tap into more power and loft, Martin returned to form in the second half of the season. A .254/.373/.384 line with 6 home runs and 17 stolen bases (while getting increasing time in the outfield) leave Martin at the front of the queue for playing time, particularly if the Twins trade for starting pitching.

Despite having minimal power, Martin has a unique blend of skills that bring offensive value. In 2023, Martin saw an average number of pitches per plate appearance (3.9). His plate discipline is anchored by an exceptional 14.9% Chase%. This is approaching Edouard Julien territory; Julien led MLB in this category in 2023 at 14.3%. Martin couples this with a strong 82% contact rate on swings, much better than Julien’s 73% (and the MLB average of 75.1%). Not chasing pitches outside the zone and making contact with pitches in the zone is a strong platform, but what about the quality of that contact?

This is where we see a significant divergence between the two players. In 2023, Julien hit the ball at 95 miles per hour or harder at a 44% clip. For Martin, it was 29.5%. That’s a difference of about 24 hard-hti balls per 500 plate appearances. If we look at Barrel%, we see a similar story. TruMedia defines Barrel% as ball hit >95 mph between 10 and 35 degrees (as opposed to Baseball Savant, where they are derived empirically and the baseline rate for them is much lower). Julien’s Barrel% was 23.8% in 2023, to 14.2% for Martin, a difference of 18 Barrels per 500 plate appearances. But we already knew this. The comparison to Julien is useful when looking at plate discipline, but not batted ball events.

Martin’s average exit velocity in 2023 was 85.1 mph. That would rank him 196th in MLB, out of 212 hitters with at least 500 plate appearances. Martin has never hit the ball particularly hard, but can we point to examples of hitters with similar plate discipline who don’t hit the ball hard having significant offensive value in MLB?

Yes, but it’s a narrow path to success. Steven Kwan, Andres Gimenez, and Jeff McNeil all share the characteristics of low exit velocity and high contact rates, and all are hitters who make an offensive impact.

Martin’s excellent contact skills are consistent throughout the strike zone. As this heat map of his contact% below shows, there aren’t a ton of holes in his swing, with the exception of balls dotted on the bottom outside corner of the plate.

Where Martin will do damage, occasionally, is on pitches inside. All of his six home runs in 2023 went to the pull side. The graphical representation of his slugging average reinforces this. Five of Martin’s six Triple-A home runs were on sliders that stayed too far up. Indeed, Martin had a .532 SLG on sliders in 2023, and barreled them up at a 32.1% rate. 

A lot of the rest of Martin’s contact is to the opposite field. The spray chart below displays his batted-ball events in 2023 (removing all those confined to the infield). We can see a skew toward the opposite field, which is magnified when looking at fastballs. As is true of most hitters, Martin pulls most of his grounders, so that skews the data a bit, but this still paints an important and accurate picture of his game.

The previous hitters mentioned (Kwan, Giménez, McNeil), to varying extents, gain value from their defense. We don’t know much about Martin’s defensive effectiveness in the outfield, yet. Good speed (and rule changes) should benefit him, as he stole bases at an 81% clip in 2023. A fringy arm may be an impediment. How effective his defense is will go a long way to determining the overall value he brings--particularly in 2024, as he adjusts to MLB pitching.

Martin’s 14.3% walk rate would be top-20 in MLB, if it transferred intact to the highest level. The strong on-base numbers should translate, albeit to a lesser extent, with an automated (and squeezed) strike zone amplifying the offensive environment in Triple A in 2023. If Martin’s long-term defensive home is in center field, his plate discipline, on-base skills, speed, and defensive potential should provide good value. At minimum, he’ll be a solid utility player who brings on-base value at the bottom of the lineup, with a chance for more.

What do you think Austin Martin’s offensive ceiling is in MLB? What are your expectations when he makes his MLB debut? Share your thoughts with a comment below.

Research assistance provided by TruMedia

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[Rod Carews Birthday]

For now, I would be thrilled for Austin Martin to just be the guy who hits and fields well enough to bridge the gap to the next really good CF for the Twins.  Let's bring him up, give him a job, and see how he does.   I think he could do just fine, as long as we can temper the expectations that he is going to go out there and field as well as MAT or Buxton and hit like Lewis.  A league average offensive season from a rookie with positional flexibility is huge.

[Major League Ready]

He looked good in his last 150 ABs (starting 7/25). His OPS was .901 with a .300 BA and .428 OBP.  I would not be shocked if he broke camp with the ML club.  I think any chance of that happening will be a product of trades yet to be seen.  More likely is he sees another 150ABs in STP.  Hopefully, he is even better and we see him on the big club in June.

[stringer bell]

Interesting article. I think the unknowns will determine Martin's success. Can he be a plus outfielder? Will the stolen base numbers translate to MLB? Can he avoid further injuries? 

Martin has a skill set that fits quite well with the Twins. Getting a versatile defender capable of high OBP and being a force on the base paths would check quite a few boxes. 

I hope he gets his chance early and runs with it. 

[mickster]

8 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Interesting article. I think the unknowns will determine Martin's success. Can he be a plus outfielder? Will the stolen base numbers translate to MLB? Can he avoid further injuries? 

Martin has a skill set that fits quite well with the Twins. Getting a versatile defender capable of high OBP and being a force on the base paths would check quite a few boxes. 

I hope he gets his chance early and runs with it. 

Martin could be a good second piece of a trade to get that SP we are looking for.

[Jocko87]

16 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

He looked good in his last 150 ABs (starting 7/25). His OPS was .901 with a .300 BA and .428 OBP.  I would not be shocked if he broke camp with the ML club.  I think any chance of that happening will be a product of trades yet to be seen.  More likely is he sees another 150ABs in STP.  Hopefully, he is even better and we see him on the big club in June.

Looking at the current roster he probably has to beat out Gordon to break camp.  If Gordon is around he will get that spot but I'm still expecting Gordon to move.  After that, its him or Miranda and Martin should win out on position flexibility.  Very curious to see what he can do, 

[jmlease1]

I'm a fan of Martin, who has a lot of skills, and seems very well suited to being a 4th OF on a team where he might be needed to play a lot and could step into several roles effectively. I think he'd be above average in CF defensively and plus in either corner with his range. While I think his best position right now is on the grass, I'd have no qualms about slotting him in at 2B or even having him patching things together on the left side of the infield in a pinch.

not sure where his offensive upside lands: I think he'll get on base and hit for a good average, but he'll hit the limiter if he can't find a little more pop in his bat. That said, his willingness to take walks, swipe bases, and get on base however he can (dude isn't afraid to lean into a pitch; 53 HBP in 3 minor league seasons matters) suggests he'll be an asset.

I wouldn't be upset if he got the first crack at being the Twins 4th OF in 2024. but I wish he would have finished the season a little stronger at AAA, since he had a real power outage in Sept. That said, he kept getting on base!

[4twinsJA]

Time to see what Martin can do at MLB level. Doubt if he is on opening day roster, but should get first opportunity when injury, then hopefully plays well enough to stay.

[tony&rodney]

Farmer player a terrific centerfield and had pop from the bottom of the lineup. We can hope that Martin is fluid wherever he plays and is a total pest at the plate as well as on the bases. He may not open the year on the 26 person roster but we should not be surprised to see him in Kansas City on Opening Day either. 

[August J Gloop]

Martin can serve as a limited platoon partner for Julien at 2B, facing those tougher lefty starter that his contact profile actually matches well against and as a timeshare CF to manage Bux playing time. Give Bux two consecutive off days coupled with scheduled off days and Martin is the CF on those games. He's pretty fleet, so he'd be useful off the bench after a late Jeffers double.

[DJL44]

22 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I'm a fan of Martin, who has a lot of skills, and seems very well suited to being a 4th OF on a team where he might be needed to play a lot and could step into several roles effectively. I think he'd be above average in CF defensively and plus in either corner with his range. While I think his best position right now is on the grass, I'd have no qualms about slotting him in at 2B or even having him patching things together on the left side of the infield in a pinch.

not sure where his offensive upside lands: I think he'll get on base and hit for a good average, but he'll hit the limiter if he can't find a little more pop in his bat. That said, his willingness to take walks, swipe bases, and get on base however he can (dude isn't afraid to lean into a pitch; 53 HBP in 3 minor league seasons matters) suggests he'll be an asset.

I wouldn't be upset if he got the first crack at being the Twins 4th OF in 2024. but I wish he would have finished the season a little stronger at AAA, since he had a real power outage in Sept. That said, he kept getting on base!

This is pretty much my take, except I'd rather have him start in AAA as depth than on the MLB roster. This is a great year for Martin to bounce back and forth as MLB pitchers expose weaknesses with him working to fix those weaknesses in AAA. 80-100 games in the majors would be great for his development.

I do like that he has enough power to punish a hanging slider. That will keep pitchers honest.

[stringer bell]

29 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Looking at the current roster he probably has to beat out Gordon to break camp.  If Gordon is around he will get that spot but I'm still expecting Gordon to move.  After that, its him or Miranda and Martin should win out on position flexibility.  Very curious to see what he can do, 

I actually see room for both Miranda and Martin to break camp with the Twins. It would mean that someone is injured or that they use Larnach's last option. Larnach really doesn't have a place to play with the current position player mix, not even as a DH. Miranda could fill the Solano role and Martin and Gordon would compete for the last spot. Martin has the advantage of hitting righty, while Gordon is out of options.

[Major League Ready]

Farmer / Castro and Martin makes for an incredibly versatile bench.  

[stringer bell]

5 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I actually see room for both Miranda and Martin to break camp with the Twins. It would mean that someone is injured or that they use Larnach's last option. Larnach really doesn't have a place to play with the current position player mix, not even as a DH. Miranda could fill the Solano role and Martin and Gordon would compete for the last spot. Martin has the advantage of hitting righty, while Gordon is out of options.

I may have miscounted. With no injuries, Gordon and Miranda would be competing for the last position player spot with Martin on his way to St. Paul. I'd prefer Miranda to Gordon, but I'm sure the Twins don't want to lose him with no compensation.

[August J Gloop]

Just now, Major League Ready said:

Farmer / Castro and Martin makes for an incredibly versatile bench.  

Assuming that #4 is Vazquez, the only question is who is Kirilloff's platoon partner at first. My hunch is that it's Farmer if those are the 4. 

[chpettit19]

I think Kwan is probably a good comp for Martin's likely peak. And I'd be really happy with that result. Good speed, and likely really good to elite corner OF defense, but with limited offensive upside because of his lack of power. If he could get to 10 HRs a year he'd be a slightly better version of Kwan and that'd be really nice. 

I'm in no rush to get him to Minneapolis, but certainly expect it at some point in 2024. Don't want him playing a bench role to start the year so would prefer he goes to St Paul and gets everyday ABs, preferably in the outfield as often as possible since that's the most likely spot for him to find an everyday job if he proves to be worthy of that.

[Parfigliano]

Martin being Jeff McNeil like is OK with me.  I'll take a guy that can put up .298/.361/.438 with a 121 OPS+ for the next 6 years cause thats McNeil's 6 year career to date.

[Doctor Gast]

14 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Martin being Jeff McNeil like is OK with me.  I'll take a guy that can put up .298/.361/.438 with a 121 OPS+ for the next 6 years cause thats McNeil's 6 year career to date.

I expect better from Martin after 6 yrs. He's a lead-off hitter against LHPs.

[wabene]

It's pretty hilarious that now seemingly every article, podcast and video about the Twins opens with "the Twins self imposed payroll restrictions", lol. It may have been Gleeman who coined and popularized the phrase. I'm sure every time Dave St Peter sees Gleeman slumped against the back wall at a press conference, the hair on the back of his neck stands up. 

[Drtwins]

I’m excited to see what Martin can do this year, but don’t expect to see him on the 26-man until May or June. The 26-man is pretty set imo. Wallner, Buxton, Kepler across the outfield with Castro the backup at all 3 positions (Wallner likely switches to RF when Kep rests). Lewis, Correa, Julien/Polanco, Kirilloff will cover the infield and DH spot in some manner with Farmer the main backup. Finally, there is Jeffers and Vazquez behind the plate. That leaves 1 spot. Gordon, Miranda, Larnach, and Martin are all possibilities. Out of these options Gordon is the only one without an option and do the Twins really want to have Miranda, Larnach, and Martin in the majors to sit on the bench. Injuries can change everything though. If Buxton can’t play center, Martin will hopefully be the call. If Wallner or Kepler go down, Larnach can come up. Hopefully Miranda will have a good spring and be ready in case Kirilloff isn’t. Ultimately, how things stand Gordon will likely take the final spot but the Twins appear to have capable replacements for all positions in the minors should someone get injured (cough Buxton, Kirilloff) or gets DFA’d (Gordon) a month or two into the season.

[jmlease1]

29 minutes ago, wabene said:

It's pretty hilarious that now seemingly every article, podcast and video about the Twins opens with "the Twins self imposed payroll restrictions", lol. It may have been Gleeman who coined and popularized the phrase. I'm sure every time Dave St Peter sees Gleeman slumped against the back wall at a press conference, the hair on the back of his neck stands up. 

It's also fair, considering the decision from Twins management to follow up a promising season by cutting payroll. While I don't expect that franchise to be top 5 or even top 10 in terms of payroll, they had quite a few years where their payroll was below average and they reaped substantial profits. With the playoff run, it's likely they at least broke even in 2023 (and I wouldn't bet against them making money; Twins are good at making sure they stay profitable). If ownership/senior management is getting a little uncomfortable seeing "self-imposed payroll limits" being interjected into every Twins discussion...good.

[wabene]

6 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

It's also fair, considering the decision from Twins management to follow up a promising season by cutting payroll. While I don't expect that franchise to be top 5 or even top 10 in terms of payroll, they had quite a few years where their payroll was below average and they reaped substantial profits. With the playoff run, it's likely they at least broke even in 2023 (and I wouldn't bet against them making money; Twins are good at making sure they stay profitable). If ownership/senior management is getting a little uncomfortable seeing "self-imposed payroll limits" being interjected into every Twins discussion...good.

Just trying to find humor in the desert that is the Twins payroll. I, like everybody else would like to see them spend more. I also feel like they still have an outstanding IOU for all the low payroll years under T Ryan. 

[TwinsDr2021]

46 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I expect better from Martin after 6 yrs. He's a lead-off hitter against LHPs.

For comparisons McNeil minors leagues number are (.312/.380/.444/.825)  and Martin's (.256/.388/.361/.750)

I was pretty high on Martin and have soured a bit, but I think he has a chance to have a pretty decent and fairly long career but I am not expecting him to unseat any of the Twins around his age. (Lewis/Lee/Julien/Wallner)

IMO he hasn't done enough in the minors and would only hurt his career sitting on the bench in the majors and only playing a few days a week, so I would start him, Miranda, and Larnach in the minors and make them force their way up.

[Doctor Gast]

18 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

For comparisons McNeil minors leagues number are (.312/.380/.444/.825)  and Martin's (.256/.388/.361/.750)

I was pretty high on Martin and have soured a bit, but I think he has a chance to have a pretty decent and fairly long career but I am not expecting him to unseat any of the Twins around his age. (Lewis/Lee/Julien/Wallner)

IMO he hasn't done enough in the minors and would only hurt his career sitting on the bench in the majors and only playing a few days a week, so I would start him, Miranda, and Larnach in the minors and make them force their way up.

Fair enough, I just don't like to use the wasted years that TOR & MN were experimenting with him at SS & his swing to use as a comp of what he can actually do. I'd like to start a month or 2 before AFL when he went back to his old swing. Those wasted years unfortunately have to be made up so starting at AAA isn't a bad idea. Especially if Buck is ready at CF.

Although getting HBP helps his OBP, I don't like him getting hurt. I wish he'd back off a bit.

[roger]

2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Interesting article. I think the unknowns will determine Martin's success. Can he be a plus outfielder? Will the stolen base numbers translate to MLB? Can he avoid further injuries? 

Martin has a skill set that fits quite well with the Twins. Getting a versatile defender capable of high OBP and being a force on the base paths would check quite a few boxes. 

I hope he gets his chance early and runs with it. 

I hope he gets his chance early and runs with it.   REally enjoyed this comment with a big smile.  Thanks.

[wabene]

39 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

For comparisons McNeil minors leagues number are (.312/.380/.444/.825)  and Martin's (.256/.388/.361/.750)

I was pretty high on Martin and have soured a bit, but I think he has a chance to have a pretty decent and fairly long career but I am not expecting him to unseat any of the Twins around his age. (Lewis/Lee/Julien/Wallner)

IMO he hasn't done enough in the minors and would only hurt his career sitting on the bench in the majors and only playing a few days a week, so I would start him, Miranda, and Larnach in the minors and make them force their way up.

Agreed,  they will likely keep Gordon up since he has no options. That's ok, I guess, if he performs. My worry is with their track record, if G Money falters, will they have the stomach to cut bait? 

Oops my bad it's G Cinco or G Flash, G Money is a different rapper. Old guy trying to keep up

[Fatbat]

He will be in the show in ‘24.  Probably wont be huge impact but we need obp guy(s). He and Castro can spell Buck in CF.  As long as he has a productive role, the Twins and Martin will deliver some fun ball games.  Steal some bases snd score some runs. We need that.

[Doctor Wu]

Good article, and I especially appreciate the deep dive into the advanced stats. I'm still trying to get my head around some of these new ways to evaluate a player, so it's helpful. I'm also a fan of Martin, or at least someone that has confidence/hope that he will turn into a solid MLB player. Whenever that happens, who knows? As some others have written, a lot will depend on the injury situation in late March. But yeah, I certainly think we'll see Martin with the Twins at some point this season, maybe even before June. 

[Fezig]

I'm not saying Martin will be a batting champ, but here's a guy whose exit velocity isn't that great but somehow still succeeds. I'm guessing he doesn't oversubscribe to the analytics.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/how-luis-arraez-is-an-elite-hitter-without-elite-exit-velocity

 

 

[tony&rodney]

18 hours ago, wabene said:

I also feel like they still have an outstanding IOU for all the low payroll years under T Ryan. 

Does anyone believe that  Ryan had any choice on a budget or that he did not spend as much as his boss(es) allowed?