How Valuable Can Austin Martin be to the 2024 Twins?

[wabene]

4 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Does anyone believe that  Ryan had any choice on a budget or that he did not spend as much as his boss(es) allowed? 

Yeah I do. I have heard this from multiple sources. The way Gleeman puts it is Ryan took pride in being frugal and not spending all that was available. From my limited exposure to T Ryan's personality, the shoe seems to fit. Why do you find this so hard to believe? 

[jorgenswest]

… and back to Martin.

A few observations from baseball reference. He hasn't shown a platoon split looking at the three years. He has played everywhere going back including 4 games at catcher in 2018. It can be easier to find a role in the majors when you have a few skills you do really well even if other skills are well below average. Perhaps you crush pitchers on one side of the platoon or you are very good defensively at SS, CF or catcher. If his bat approaches league average I think he has a career as a starter. If his wRC+ is in the 85-90 range, it is hard to imagine a role where he helps on a bench. This is his first option year and I hope the Twins are patient and use that three years if it is needed. His versatility, speed and on base skill will always be valuable as depth on the roster.

[JD-TWINS]

20 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I may have miscounted. With no injuries, Gordon and Miranda would be competing for the last position player spot with Martin on his way to St. Paul. I'd prefer Miranda to Gordon, but I'm sure the Twins don't want to lose him with no compensation.

Miranda is the alternative guy at 1B & maybe 10-20 games at 3B. Don’t see the competition between him & Gordon as a few here have eluded to for the last roster spot. Miranda is currently the only RH alternative at 1B.

13 guys: 2 Catchers, RL- CC - EJ - AK on the dirt with Farmer & Miranda, MW - Castro/Buxton - MK ……..these 12 guys seem to be a lock unless they sign/trade for a 1B. Gordon/Larnach/Martin are trying to get the last roster spot.

I don’t understand the NEED for Martin early, in CF? The assumption is that Castro can’t handle the position/opportunity but Martin probably can & deserves a shot………. In ‘23 Castro had a 106 OPS plus  - he hit .257 as a switch hitter - a .340 OBP - had 32 XBH in 358 AB’s - his arm is fantastic - he stole 33 bases - he’s played LF - CF - 3B - 2B - SS in the Show. He’s physically stronger, and he has experience. He DOES the things that everyone hopes Martin may do.

All this assumes Polanco is moved.

Gordon was a #1 pick at SS so he’s athletic - started 43 games in CF in ‘22 - can play 2B if needed as he was the starter there in ‘22 when Polanco couldn’t play - he’s out of options. He needs to start the year in Spring Training hitting better but unless he’s traded, it seems to me he’s the depth guy & 13th roster position until Martin or Larnach force him off the roster.

Once Martin shows some offensive consistency over a couple more months, he’s a real option!! He’s a real alternative to Gordon out of camp.

[Otaknam]

Martin”s lack of exit velocity might be attributed to the team’s love affair with power and trying to get him to change his approach. Let him be who he is: a patient contact hitter with speed and occasional power. If he can be an on base machine that’s an asset for any team. And if he can be an above average outfielder and play infield on a  fill in basis, all the better. 

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, wabene said:

Why do you find this so hard to believe? 

Because it is not true.

[Cris E]

@JD-TWINS I was with you until you claimed Gordon would head north with the varsity because he'd been a first rounder.  We gots lots of those, but what we need are ball players and Gordon will need to hit to earn the big uniform.

In fact Larnach and Martin and Miranda and Gordon will all be working to show they can hit in 2024, and the rest of the roster will be doing the same. We've got a bunch of guys that had bad years (Correa, Buxton, Vazquez, half of Kepler, Larnach, Kirilloff) and a bunch of others that showed one good year (Lewis, Julien, Castro, Wallner) and they all need to prove where their true level is. The division is a wasteland, so a clear path to the playoffs is open as long as they can play up to their potential talent, stay healthy and not get distracted. Draft pick history won't carry much water when there's a playoff spot on the line.

[JD-TWINS]

15 minutes ago, Cris E said:

@JD-TWINS I was with you until you claimed Gordon would head north with the varsity because he'd been a first rounder.  We gots lots of those, but what we need are ball players and Gordon will need to hit to earn the big uniform.

In fact Larnach and Martin and Miranda and Gordon will all be working to show they can hit in 2024, and the rest of the roster will be doing the same. We've got a bunch of guys that had bad years (Correa, Buxton, Vazquez, half of Kepler, Larnach, Kirilloff) and a bunch of others that showed one good year (Lewis, Julien, Castro, Wallner) and they all need to prove where their true level is. The division is a wasteland, so a clear path to the playoffs is open as long as they can play up to their potential talent, stay healthy and not get distracted. Draft pick history won't carry much water when there's a playoff spot on the line.

I don’t care what draft pick Gordon was, that gets him nothing at this point, we agree…..just pointing out at one point he was considered a decent athlete - the root of my comment was that he can play CF, LF & 2B - just like Martin & since he’s out of options he’ll probably get carried along unless they trade him. Everyone on the initial 13 man has to hit……..particularly, Miranda - Martin - Gordon. Assuming Martin gets more seasoning at AAA.

I did also agree with the “hit to prove yourself - find their true level” comment you made but I didn’t think Kirilloff was far from a good season in ‘23.

[JD-TWINS]

30 minutes ago, Cris E said:

@JD-TWINS I was with you until you claimed Gordon would head north with the varsity because he'd been a first rounder.  We gots lots of those, but what we need are ball players and Gordon will need to hit to earn the big uniform.

In fact Larnach and Martin and Miranda and Gordon will all be working to show they can hit in 2024, and the rest of the roster will be doing the same. We've got a bunch of guys that had bad years (Correa, Buxton, Vazquez, half of Kepler, Larnach, Kirilloff) and a bunch of others that showed one good year (Lewis, Julien, Castro, Wallner) and they all need to prove where their true level is. The division is a wasteland, so a clear path to the playoffs is open as long as they can play up to their potential talent, stay healthy and not get distracted. Draft pick history won't carry much water when there's a playoff spot on the line.

Martin & Larnach were #1 picks as well no free ride after you get to the Show - agreed.

[August J Gloop]

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Does anyone believe that  Ryan had any choice on a budget or that he did not spend as much as his boss(es) allowed? 

I'm certain he pocketed all the cash after misreporting payroll to the pohlads. And he would have got away with it if not for that dog and meddling kids. 

6 hours ago, Fezig said:

I'm not saying Martin will be a batting champ, but here's a guy whose exit velocity isn't that great but somehow still succeeds. I'm guessing he doesn't oversubscribe to the analytics.

https://www.mlb.com/news/how-luis-arraez-is-an-elite-hitter-without-elite-exit-velocity

Luis Arraez is so keyed in to anayltics that he tailors his swing based on count, defense, opposing pitcher. He can't create big power with that approach but he sure can hit the ball where fielders aren't standing. The reason why more guys don't do it is its a) nearly impossible without Arraez hand eye coordination and b) not actually all that valuable (see Arraez WRC ratings only slightly above average.  

4 hours ago, wabene said:

Yeah I do. I have heard this from multiple sources. The way Gleeman puts it is Ryan took pride in being frugal and not spending all that was available. From my limited exposure to T Ryan's personality, the shoe seems to fit. Why do you find this so hard to believe? 

Because it sounds crazy. Could you point us to the Gleeman quotes?

[Trov]

You know another player that hardly chased, had low hard hit rate, but sure produced on offense?  Luis Arraez.  His knock was always his lack of power.  His contact rate is higher, but his walk rate is much lower too. They are not the same player by any stretch, but the point is you can get offense from more than just power.  The fact Martin can run and steal bases will make him even more valuable.  I still have some hopes for Martin. 

[wabene]

1 hour ago, August J Gloop said:

Because it sounds crazy. Could you point us to the Gleeman quotes?

Are transcriptions of the Gleeman and the Geek podcast available? Surely I can do some digging,  I may never really know if it is true or not. Doesn't sound crazy to me though. Pretty much falls in line with what it felt like to be a fan during Ryan's tenure.

[August J Gloop]

59 minutes ago, wabene said:

Are transcriptions of the Gleeman and the Geek podcast available? Surely I can do some digging,  I may never really know if it is true or not. Doesn't sound crazy to me though. Pretty much falls in line with what it felt like to be a fan during Ryan's tenure.

It sounds to me more like bus throwing by the Pohlads. What might be is that Ryan would be proud of feeling like he'd kept a little in the tank to be able to add at the deadline. But most likely he would spend his paltry budget, the team would come up short, and then it was framed that he had more money to spend and just chose not to.

Why would he be proud of it? They never won anything in his tenure so the plan didn't exactly work. It wasn't his money and he didn't get bonuses for undercutting the budget. That sort of deal would have been leaked by now.   

Terry did put together some pretty decent teams on limited budgets, though. He can be proud of that. 

[wabene]

Here ya go @August J Gloopand @tony&rodneystraight from the horse's mouth and from two thousand and freaking fourteen. I think this is ingrained in Mr Gleeman's thought process over the last ten years. I knew I wasn't that crazy, lol. Just keep in mind, not all of my opinions are half baked, some are actually fully baked.

https://aarongleeman.com/2014/10/15/how-much-payroll-space-do-the-twins-have-and-will-they-actually-spend-it/

[Guest]

Here's hopping for the best from and for Mr. Martin. I think he looks like a flamboyant pirate wearing a foam hot dog on his head.  Wish he'd get a foam parrot on his shoulder instead.