Unexpected Offseason Trend Re-Opens Questions Surrounding Jhoan Durán

[Cody Schoenmann]

Could an unexpected offseason trend affect the Twins' bullpen hierarchy (and their starting rotation) in the near future?

Image courtesy of Brad Rempel - USA TODAY Sports

In an article published Nov. 20 in the New York Post entitled "Teams turning to their bullpens to solve starter shortage," baseball columnist Joel Sherman wrote: "It is clear teams are going to have to find starters not just everywhere from the Americas to Asia, but also in their own bullpens." What Sherman was alluding to was the then-recent three-year, $30-million deal Reynaldo López signed with the Atlanta Braves. The erstwhile White Sox reliever was going to get a chance to start for Atlanta.

Entering free agency, everyone was under the assumption that López was going to be paid handsomely, but with the anticipation of being a high-leverage set-up man or closer. Interestingly, López isn't a unique case. Last year, former relievers Seth Lugo (San Diego Padres) and Zack Littell (Tampa Bay Rays) were acquired to undergo the same transition. Both were unmitigated success stories, as Lugo earned a three-year, $45-million contract with the Kansas City Royals as a starter, and Littell has become a fixture in the Rays rotation.

This offseason, Michael King, Jordan Hicks, and López (all relievers last season) were either signed or traded for with the intent (or at least the thought) of their becoming full-time starters. Also, A.J. Puk, who earned 15 saves as the Miami Marlins closer last season, is reportedly transitioning to becoming a starter, which is the role he filled coming up through the Oakland Athletics system. With this trend becoming more prevalent every offseason, could the Twins join in on the movement?

At first glance, the Twin who makes the most sense to undergo the same transition is starter-turned-reliever Louie Varland. Unlike the pitchers mentioned above, Varland's transition to reliever was meant to be temporary. The plan was to maximize Varland's fastball (which worked, as his fastball (which traditionally sits around 95.3 MPH) spiked to 100.1 MPH at its peak) and have him operate out of the bullpen as an electric high-leverage arm during the postseason. The plan looked brilliant as Varland struck out one and gave up zero runs over 2/3 innings pitched during the postseason. Still, the long-term plan for the 26-year-old Minnesota native is to have him become a fixture of the team's starting rotation.

More intriguingly, another Twins reliever could attempt to leverage the recent trend around MLB and become a member of the team's rotation: Jhoan Durán. In the past, Durán has expressed a desire to be a starter, which is the role he played until he was on the doorstep of the big leagues in spring 2023. Durán has quickly become one of baseball's best relievers, but would it be in the Twins' best interest to consider transitioning him into becoming a starter? Let's weigh the pros and cons:

Pros
The main argument for turning Durán back into a starting pitcher is that the Twins could use him for more innings. Over the past two seasons, Durán has averaged roughly 65 innings pitched in (primarily) high-leverage relief appearances. In 2023, MLB pitchers averaged 5 1/3 innings per start. Drag that number out over 30 starts, and you get 153 innings. If Durán were to pitch around 153 innings, the quality of his stuff and average velocity on his pitches (most notably his fastball and splinker) would likely diminish in the name of sustainability. Health permitting, however, there is little reason to doubt that Durán would immediately become the Twins' second-best starting pitcher, with the potential to become a bona fide ace. 

Durán already has a three-pitch repertoire, including an elite fastball and a curveball and splitter as above-average complementary pitches. He might need to implement a fourth and potentially fifth pitch to become a starter. Because he already has three pitches that move mostly in the vertical plane, it could be in his best interest to implement one of multiple pitches that move to the arm side and/or glove side. Durán's arm-side pitch would likely be a more traditional changeup, or a variation on his splitter that involves a bit less velocity and a bit more pronation; his glove-side pitch would likely be a sweeper. Though it is hard to know what Durán would add in this hypothetical situation, it is fair to assume whichever pitch he and the Twins coaching staff elected to implement would suffice.

Admittedly, Durán struggled as a starting pitcher in the Diamondbacks and Twins minor leagues, but his last relevant season as a starter came in 2019. Since that time, the 26-year-old has been able to sufficiently improve his command and secondary pitches, while seemingly mitigating (if not entirely erasing) any genuine concern over a significant injury taking place. Much of Durán's good bill of health is likely due to him only throwing around 65 innings per year. Yet, although there is sufficient reason to be skeptical, he has earned the benefit of the doubt when speculating whether his favorable health status would be sustainable if pushed to five or six innings per appearance. 

Cons
Though he isn't in the same tier as the best relievers in the game (like Félix Bautista, Devin Williams, or Josh Hader), Durán has quickly become one of the best second-tier closers in MLB alongside Emmanuel Clase, David Bednar, and Camilo Doval. If Durán were to transition into a starter, the Twins would be without one of the best relievers in the game, which would significantly hamper the quality of the team's bullpen.

If Durán were to become a reliever, Brock Stewart or Griffin Jax would probably become the team's closer, with Caleb Thielbar, Kody Funderburk, and potentially Varland needing to be the organization's primary high-leverage middle relievers. The construction of the team's high-leverage relievers wouldn't change much, but losing one of the best closers in the game would inevitably diminish the effectiveness of an already middling bullpen. If Durán were to become a starter, the team would need to acquire a different top-tier reliever, which would come at the expense of significant prospect capital or a hefty price tag. Earlier today, Ted Schwerzler suggested one possible solution to that problem, but it also illustrates the cost involved. Would the tradeoff be worth it if Durán became one of the best starters in the Twins' rotation? Presumably so. But if the bullpen were to sink into becoming one of the worst units in the league, what good would a lead through six or seven innings be?

As noted earlier, there is little reason to doubt that Durán's pitch quality and ability to stay healthy would be sustainably sufficient as a starter. Though this is the case, there is still reason to worry about the possibility of Durán struggling to stay healthy and effective as a starter. He excels in one- or two-inning roles, but that is because he can maximize his pitching repertoire while not needing to physically strain himself over multiple innings and 80 or more pitches. Durán's velocity, break, location, and durability would all drop due to being stretched out over more innings. The only question is, how much? 

Although the Twins converting Durán into a starting pitcher is highly unlikely, the recent offseason trend of relievers signing as starters and Durán recently expressing a desire to become a starter once again leave the opportunity for a significant transition a still-plausible outcome.

Do you think the Twins should transition Durán into a starter? Would it be worth making the bullpen worse in exchange for improving the starting rotation? What do you make of this unexpected offseason trend? Are there any pros or cons that you can think of that weren't addressed? Join the discussion and comment below.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

I just am waiting here, with popcorn, to watch the comments :)

[DJL44]

I would try Duran in the rotation. A top of the rotation starter is always worth more than a reliever.

[sweetmusicviola16]

If he feels confident that he can stay healthy then yes I'd do it. He'd probably be a stud. No though to Stewart or Jax. I want someone better and established as closer. Trade for Williams or sign Hader.

[jimbo92107]

Sounds like a promise delivered. Give him a shot.

[jorgenswest]

I guess my wonder is about pitch mix. He has two fastballs with about a 3 mph difference in velocity as well as a curve ball. Will that work multiple times through the order? Ryan also has two fastballs and a breaking ball but there is a much greater difference in velocity. How does his pitch mix compare to others making the move?

[EGFTShaw]

44 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I just am waiting here, with popcorn, to watch the comments :)

Did you scare everyone away from commenting??? 😆

[Cory Engelhardt]

Just now, EGFTShaw said:

Did you scare everyone away from commenting??? 😆

I certainly hope not. :)

I guess I would leave him in the role he is, but if this IS an option, he certainly has the arm talent to be good as a starter too right?

[bjorks]

4 years of control (including this year) before he's a UFA in 2028. IF he's a #2 or #3 I think because he's going to be cheap and he would hold more trade value as a starter I'd guess you make that move. Finding a Tier 2 closer or doing it by committee is easier than finding a bonafide #2. Of course he'd be open to it as he heads into arbitration after this season. Submitting as a starter vs a closer is still a wide gap. 

He'll have almost the same service time as Bednar did heading into his first year of arbitration and he landed at $4.5, but Bednar has a better WAR. Seth suggested $4M in 2025 for Duran, but it appears it may be a tad low. Duran as a viable #2 or #3 at $5M/yr + Josh Hader at $16M/yr is still better than Duran at $5M as a closer and having Giolitto at $18M. 

 

 

 

[oregontwin]

Has anyone looked into whether starters or relievers blow out their elbows more frequently? Would the additional innings strengthen the UCL or simply wear it to an early breakdown?

[Fatbat]

Id trot out Daffy Duck to get200 innings of 3.00era and 1.1 whip if he had the tools to get it done. Duran is no different. 

[ashbury]

1 minute ago, Fatbat said:

Id trot out Daffy Duck to get200 innings of 3.00era and 1.1 whip if he had the tools to get it done. Duran is no different. 

But what if Daffy Duck or, say, Duran, can't give you 200 innings of that, and his best use turns out to be 5 innings of all-out effort?  Times 32 starts is 160 innings.  You still on board?

[sampleSizeOfOne]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I just am waiting here, with popcorn, to watch the comments :)

Did you put butter on it?

[sampleSizeOfOne]

I hope they give him a chance to start.

And i hope he makes them look good for doing so.

[Cory Engelhardt]

5 minutes ago, sampleSizeOfOne said:

Did you put butter on it?

Real butter is always a good thing on popcorn. :)

[Fatbat]

7 minutes ago, ashbury said:

But what if Daffy Duck or, say, Duran, can't give you 200 innings of that, and his best use turns out to be 5 innings of all-out effort?  Times 32 starts is 160 innings.  You still on board?

Yup 100%

[Fatbat]

@ashbury 160 regular season and he is my game 2 starter in the playoffs. That gets me another 20-30 innings…. Almost to 200!

[Hrbeks Divot]

If converting Durán was a real possibility they should have already had conversations about stretching him out and developing those additional pitches in the offseason. We’re rapidly approaching reporting day for pitchers and catchers. I don’t have a problem with the concept but timing wise I don’t think it’s in the cards for this season unless they plan to start slowly and build up throughout early part of the season. Three innings per start in April, four innings in May, etc.

[roger]

If it ain't broke, don't fik it!

[Mike h]

I'm glad Johan Santana got the chance to start. Hope history repeats

[sun]

I doubt that Duran would become an ace but I believe that it's an experiment worth trying. I do like Stewart as a closer & would like to see Varland get his shot at being a starter too. It should be easier to transition back to the bullpen than stretching out to become a starter. Give them the green light & settle both issues once & for all.

[chpettit19]

Did medical people tell them his injury problems were from overuse? Why did he struggle as a starter in the high minors? Do they believe his problems that caused him to struggle in the high minors have been fixed? If the answers to questions 1 and 3 are "no" and "yes" then I'd give him a chance to stretch out and see what he can do in the rotation. If either of those answers were different I'd leave him where he is.

I don't know enough about why he struggled in the upper minors as a starter to really have a strong opinion here. Can he not maintain velo and control multiple times through a lineup? Was it his control? Does his pitch mix just not work well enough multiple times through a lineup? If his success as a starter is reliant on him adding another pitch or 2 as the article suggests I'd be much more hesitant to put him in a starter's role.

[awmonahan]

The names mentioned in the article are not if the caliber of Duran - Littel and Lopez are nice, but not at the same level. Also, Little and Lopez were put in the bullpen because they were failed starters. Duran is in the bullpen to combat injury concerns. It's just a different discussion. 

The risk/reward is greater with a better pitcher. We could see how it works with Hicks, who is a closer comp. But I still don't think this type of risk is worth it for a team that isn't willing to spend and has such a low margin for error.

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I certainly hope not. :)

I guess I would leave him in the role he is, but if this IS an option, he certainly has the arm talent to be good as a starter too right?

Maybe the popcorn was bad.

[Cory Engelhardt]

4 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Maybe the popcorn was bad.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

If Duran were a starter, he would pitch every 5th day, no matter the score. Many of his starts, maybe half, therefore, would be in low leverage situations. Whereas the vast majority of his  "closer" relief innings would be in high leverage situations, with the game on the line. Using Duran's "limited innings" in low level situations is a waste of his arm usage.  Psychologically it gives the Twins' player a lift to know that Duran will win the game when the Twins have the lead.  Why was Mariano Rivera never made a starter by the Yankees? Because he was too valuable as a closer to run the risk of messing things up by changing him to a starter. You may say, "What about Santana?" I would answer that by saying that Santana was never one of the 2 or 3 best closers in the game, before the Twins moved him to starter. Tell me how I'm wrong. 

[jorgenswest]

As a high leverage reliever over the last two years he has a win probability added of 6.57. There is only one starter with a better WPA over the last two years. Does he need to come close to that WPA to justify putting him in the rotation? If so, he will need to be in the Cy Young conversation as a starter.

Would he be more impactful as a starter if he were at about 1.5 WPA per year in that role?

[Cris E]

There are plenty of reasons that this is a terrible idea.

1. Will he be effective?

2. Will he be healthy?

3. Who will throw those missing 65 innings in the pen?

Starting is very different from relieving beyond the simple matter of more innings. As a starter you give so many more looks at your stuff, and batters do get to take that into second or third shots at you later in the game. Consequently there are not a lot of starters who can get away with two pitches because it makes it much easier to sit on one or the other. Part of what made Duran so effective was dropping his bad secondary pitches and focusing on his best ones, but he'll need to dust them off and hope they're somehow better if he starts. Cutting back the innings was another reason he improved, as it let him air things out for higher velo but he'll need to dial that back as well if he wants to throw 80 pitches in a game. Tell me that consciously throwing slower while facing a lineup for the second time is going to be great. I have doubts he'll be a #2 pitcher for more than a few weeks if he even makes it out of spring training.

But beyond pitching well he'd have to stay healthy, and that's another place where changing the repertoire could come back to haunt him. He's got a month to add conditioning to double his workload and somehow conjure up a new pitch or two. In an organization as injury-averse as Rocco's Twins I say they kill this notion with fire, immediately, then bury it. 

And if you take away his 65 innings from the pen you'll find that the other high end guys don't look as awesome when the game stretches out all the way to nine innings. Jax can close every once in a while, Stewart looks sharp when he's healthy, Theilbar is old enough to be Duran's dad and Varland can throw a hundred in the sixth, but when they all have to move up a spot it's not nearly as good a pen. Meanwhile in the best case they need to find another 90 innings to fill the Duran voids (65 IP plus 30 shorter starts.) We know what the Chris Archer 4 Inning Method does to a bullpen, so why do we think it'll be easier in 2024 without Duran to finish up? 

In conclusion, Libya is a land of contrasts and starting Duran is a bad idea. It's one thing for Zach Littel to give up on his dreams of being an average sixth inning guy to return to starting. @awmonahan hit that one on the head: little at risk if that deal goes south. Meanwhile the Twins were already looking a little short in the pen before this nonsense was resurrected.  Leave Duran in a position where he'll be one of the best in the game and find someone else to grind out innings in the #4 spot. We've already got guys lined up for that, so why gamble that two transitions work out (Duran to rotation and Varland to pen) when you already have them in place, succeeding and close to succeeding?

Madness I tell you. Winter is too long around here and you get all sorts of dumb ideas floating around to fill the idle evenings. Hang on until Feb and we'll be past these fever dreams.

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

As a high leverage reliever over the last two years he has a win probability added of 6.57. There is only one starter with a better WPA over the last two years. Does he need to come close to that WPA to justify putting him in the rotation? If so, he will need to be in the Cy Young conversation as a starter.

By that logic all of the ace starting pitchers in MLB should be converted to relievers so they can improve their WPA.

[DJL44]

9 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

If Duran were a starter, he would pitch every 5th day, no matter the score. Many of his starts, maybe half, therefore, would be in low leverage situations. Whereas the vast majority of his  "closer" relief innings would be in high leverage situations, with the game on the line. 

He'd still give you 2.5 to 3 times the innings in the rotation. Leverage is like a 10-20% multiplier, it doesn't double or triple the value of innings.