Unexpected Offseason Trend Re-Opens Questions Surrounding Jhoan Durán

[jorgenswest]

Just now, DJL44 said:

By that logic all of the ace starting pitchers in MLB should be converted to relievers so they can improve their WPA.

Doesn’t that assume that pitchers will be equally effective in both roles? If that is the case then anyone would put him in the rotation.

It seems you chose to not copy forward my last sentence where if his role should change if he were a 1.5 WPA starter (Bailey Ober last year). Would you trade him for Bailey Ober? 

By omitting that statement you certainly change the emphasis.

 

 

[DJL44]

9 minutes ago, Cris E said:

Starting is very different from relieving beyond the simple matter of more innings. As a starter you give so many more looks at your stuff, and batters do get to take that into second or third shots at you later in the game. Consequently there are not a lot of starters who can get away with two pitches because it makes it much easier to sit on one or the other. Part of what made Duran so effective was dropping his bad secondary pitches and focusing on his best ones, but he'll need to dust them off and hope they're somehow better if he starts. Cutting back the innings was another reason he improved, as it let him air things out for higher velo but he'll need to dial that back as well if he wants to throw 80 pitches in a game. Tell me that consciously throwing slower while facing a lineup for the second time is going to be great. I have doubts he'll be a #2 pitcher for more than a few weeks if he even makes it out of spring training.

If he goes bust in a few weeks you move him back to the bullpen where he has been very good. If he doesn't go bust you have a potential CYA candidate. I see very little downside risk.

[DJL44]

Just now, jorgenswest said:

Doesn’t that assume that pitchers will be equally effective in both roles? If that is the case then anyone would put him in the rotation.

It seems you chose to not copy forward my last sentence where if his role should change if he were a 1.5 WPA starter (Bailey Ober last year). Would you trade him for Bailey Ober? 

By omitting that statement you certainly change the emphasis.

Ace starters have no problem working out of the bullpen. See John Smoltz, Dennis Eckersley, Derek Lowe, etc, etc, etc. 

I don't necessarily trust that Bailey Ober will repeat his results in 2024. I would definitely trade Duran for Gilbert or Kirby of Seattle. You should always be willing to trade your closer for a legitimate top of the rotation starter. That's kind of the whole point of this article. If Duran could be a top of the rotation starter instead then they should move him to the rotation. There are questions about whether he can do it but you'll never know if you never try.

I don't really care about WPA. It is a totally meaningless garbage statistic.

[Mike Sixel]

12 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

If he goes bust in a few weeks you move him back to the bullpen where he has been very good. If he doesn't go bust you have a potential CYA candidate. I see very little downside risk.

So, you'd undo your decision in a few starts? That seems hasty.... Unless you don't believe in your decision. 

[Cris E]

They have trouble if he gets hurt, and that's the serious risk here. It's not going to be a "3.85 ERA works for me, but 4.70 means you gotta go back to the pen."   What's more likely is the ERA drifts up, Duran starts trying to throw 100 for four innings and blows his arm up. Anyone who has been a 100 MPH guy with a walkup video knows that's still an option in a tight spot, and he's going to constantly be tempted to go back there even knowing that it is not sustainable as a starter. Some April Wednesday in Detroit it'll be 48 degrees with a light rain falling and Javy Baez will be stepping in with two on in the fourth after a couple walks due to a bad curveball night. You tell me he's not going to reach straight back with 70 pitches on his arm and see if he can get out of it with speed?  I foresee trouble.

[Brandon]

If the Twins do decide to let Duran start they should sign him to a contract extension while he is still a reliever so they can base the future earnings off of reliever pay instead of ace starter pay.  

The big concern is injury of course.  Duran was not known as durable before making the switch to the pen.  in fact, I think that is why he made the switch.  

[DJL44]

24 minutes ago, Cris E said:

They have trouble if he gets hurt, and that's the serious risk here. It's not going to be a "3.85 ERA works for me, but 4.70 means you gotta go back to the pen."   What's more likely is the ERA drifts up, Duran starts trying to throw 100 for four innings and blows his arm up. Anyone who has been a 100 MPH guy with a walkup video knows that's still an option in a tight spot, and he's going to constantly be tempted to go back there even knowing that it is not sustainable as a starter. Some April Wednesday in Detroit it'll be 48 degrees with a light rain falling and Javy Baez will be stepping in with two on in the fourth after a couple walks due to a bad curveball night. You tell me he's not going to reach straight back with 70 pitches on his arm and see if he can get out of it with speed?  I foresee trouble.

There is always injury risk. He's essentially trying to get out of it with speed every time he pitches now. Wouldn't it be better for him to dial it back to 97 MPH instead of going max effort every outing?

In the end the reason to keep him in the bullpen may be that Duran is more of a thrower than a pitcher. He does not have good control and doesn't hit spots but it doesn't matter because batters have a hard enough time hitting his stuff when he leaves it middle-middle. That works at 101 MPH but won't at 97 MPH. Letting him find that out and fail might actually make him better in the long run.

[DJL44]

36 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

So, you'd undo your decision in a few starts? That seems hasty.... Unless you don't believe in your decision. 

It depends on how bad it is but if I think Varland is a better option in the rotation than Duran I'd move him back to the bullpen by the end of May. He's not pitching for the Pirates where they can afford to give him a whole season to find out.

[Nashvilletwin]

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

If Duran were a starter, he would pitch every 5th day, no matter the score. Many of his starts, maybe half, therefore, would be in low leverage situations. Whereas the vast majority of his  "closer" relief innings would be in high leverage situations, with the game on the line. Using Duran's "limited innings" in low level situations is a waste of his arm usage.  Psychologically it gives the Twins' player a lift to know that Duran will win the game when the Twins have the lead.  Why was Mariano Rivera never made a starter by the Yankees? Because he was too valuable as a closer to run the risk of messing things up by changing him to a starter. You may say, "What about Santana?" I would answer that by saying that Santana was never one of the 2 or 3 best closers in the game, before the Twins moved him to starter. Tell me how I'm wrong. 

You are not wrong - you are correct.

While success in football inevitably comes down to who wins at the line of scrimmage, success in baseball, particularly in the modern era of 5-6 inning starters, comes down to being able to get through 5 or 6 innings giving up three runs or less and then having a shut down pen.  Duran is a huge, almost irreplaceable part of our attempts to have a shut down pen.  Get Varland or someone else to get us through six with three earned runs against (very middling 4.50 era). But getting those last nine outs is where teams win or lose championships.  I’d bet we win 80%+ of the games we play giving up three runs through six and no runs from the seventh on. Build the pen - keep Duran there. 

[adorduan]

3 hours ago, ashbury said:

But what if Daffy Duck or, say, Duran, can't give you 200 innings of that, and his best use turns out to be 5 innings of all-out effort?  Times 32 starts is 160 innings.  You still on board?

yes. 160 > 65.

[Major League Ready]

56 minutes ago, Cris E said:

They have trouble if he gets hurt, and that's the serious risk here. It's not going to be a "3.85 ERA works for me, but 4.70 means you gotta go back to the pen."   What's more likely is the ERA drifts up, Duran starts trying to throw 100 for four innings and blows his arm up. Anyone who has been a 100 MPH guy with a walkup video knows that's still an option in a tight spot, and he's going to constantly be tempted to go back there even knowing that it is not sustainable as a starter. Some April Wednesday in Detroit it'll be 48 degrees with a light rain falling and Javy Baez will be stepping in with two on in the fourth after a couple walks due to a bad curveball night. You tell me he's not going to reach straight back with 70 pitches on his arm and see if he can get out of it with speed?  I foresee trouble.

Verlander was quite effective dialing it up a notch only when he really needed it.   

[adorduan]

"But if the bullpen were to sink into becoming one of the worst units in the league, what good would a lead through six or seven innings be?"

Well, according to this from last year, if the team is ahead after 6 innings, all but the Diamondbacks won over 80% of those games, so even with a below average bullpen, teams win the vast majority of games they are leading after 6.

 

[Althebum82]

It is always harder to find quality starters than closers.  Put him in the rotation if that is where he would prefer to be.

[DocBauer]

I'm reminded of Aguilera and Perkins both as I read here. Aguilera was an OK but not great SP. But he WAS a great closer. Then the Twins got a little cute and tried him as a starter again and it didn't go well. So he went back to the pen and was good again. Perkins had some nasty stuff, but wasn't cut out to be a starter, so to the pen and greatness he went. 

Duran has some outstanding stuff. But it will have to be dialed back if you try this. He's going to sit more 95-99 and while his curve is outstanding and his splinker pretty good, (sometimes nasty), he's going to need some kind of change probably to compensate for going against batters multiple times. IIRC he didn't have a consistent one, plus he battled some injuries.

Therefore, he takes his nasty stuff, cranks it up, and finds that his body holds up better in shorter but more frequent stints.

Maybe they'll try it and maybe he would be very good. I admit the idea is very intriguing. But it seems to me if they felt he had the endurance ability and potential change-up to be a rotation piece they would have kept him there, or already moved him back.

 

[Linus]

I think his best role is to be a true fireman. Get a traditional closer to pitch the ninth and let Durán pitch the most high leverage innings including some two inning stints. This would provide max value. 

[old nurse]

4 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

As a high leverage reliever over the last two years he has a win probability added of 6.57. There is only one starter with a better WPA over the last two years. Does he need to come close to that WPA to justify putting him in the rotation? If so, he will need to be in the Cy Young conversation as a starter.

Would he be more impactful as a starter if he were at about 1.5 WPA per year in that role?

● WPA is not highly predictive. Generally, it is not used for player analysis and projecting the future

[old nurse]

4 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

You quit commenting. Finished the popcorn. The bucket became useful the more you read?

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 minute ago, old nurse said:

You quit commenting. Finished the popcorn. The bucket became useful the more you read?

Just off and on with kids and work and stuff. Hopefully they make a move asap :)

[jorgenswest]

33 minutes ago, old nurse said:

● WPA is not highly predictive. Generally, it is not used for player analysis and projecting the future

It isn’t predictive or useful at all for projection. That wasn’t the point. It is about opportunity. I think it is reasonable to expect that Duran would face more batters in high leverage closing than he would as a starter. It isn’t a given. Someone will find examples of starters (often with poor run support) with a large number of high leverage batters faced. As you said, it isn’t predictive and that same starter could have a very different total the next year. It doesn’t vary like that for closers.

Duran is more valuable as an ace. No one is trading their ace pitcher for an elite closer. They might trade their league average starter for an elite closer though. That void in closer can be difficult to fill and expensive to replace at the deadline.

 

[ashbury]

18 hours ago, adorduan said:

yes. 160 > 65.

That part of the math, I believe.

It's the part about the ERA going up only to 3.00, as stated in the post I was responding to.  I don't believe he'll be anywhere near that effective when going 5 innings, start after start.  He didn't become dominant until he was made a reliever; IMO he goes back to being non-dominant as a starter.

[Mike Sixel]

5 hours ago, DJL44 said:

It depends on how bad it is but if I think Varland is a better option in the rotation than Duran I'd move him back to the bullpen by the end of May. He's not pitching for the Pirates where they can afford to give him a whole season to find out.

End of May is a lot more than a few weeks.... So, yes

[Mike Sixel]

53 minutes ago, ashbury said:

That part of the math I believe.

It's the part about the ERA going up only to 3.00, as stated in the post I was responding to.  I don't believe he'll be anywhere near that effective when going 5 innings, start after start.  He didn't become dominant until he was made a reliever; IMO he goes back to being non-dominant as a starter.

Right. A 3 era is really low in this era

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

That part of the math I believe.

It's the part about the ERA going up only to 3.00, as stated in the post I was responding to.  I don't believe he'll be anywhere near that effective when going 5 innings, start after start.  He didn't become dominant until he was made a reliever; IMO he goes back to being non-dominant as a starter.

Duran could be a complete failure as a starter. My point was that nobody knows until they know. 
the other point was that we need a guy to pitch as many innings as possible of Cy Young type innings as possible…. His name doesn’t matter. 

[RaoulDuke]

I would be shocked if they tried it, he has just been too good as a reliever since transitioning. 

The role really maximizes his strengths and minimizes his weaknesses.  He can let it fly at 100% giving him insane stuff, saves wear and tear on his arm which already had some question marks, and it lets his 3 pitch mix shine instead of having to incorporate lower quality offerings to get through an order multiple times.

The guys that have or are attempting to back into the rotation still mostly possess a starters mix and less than elite stuff.  Jordan Hicks is the odd one, that will be interesting to watch.

Add in an innings limit and growing pains from switching roles/ having to find new pitches and you are weakening him for at least a season as well.

The interesting thing to me is with starters going less and teams rostering more pen arms, I think eventually a new long reliever role may form around guys with legit stuff that can go 2-3-4 innings and get a longer (but not on rotation) rest in between.  It could be somewhat difficult to deploy them properly and players will hate it because of money, but a 85-105 inning guy that gets 2-3 days in between appearances could be an interesting weapon to have. 

[RaoulDuke]

7 hours ago, DJL44 said:

If he goes bust in a few weeks you move him back to the bullpen where he has been very good. If he doesn't go bust you have a potential CYA candidate. I see very little downside risk.

Duran has been a stud in the pen from the go.  I wouldn't mess with him facing adversity to transition back to role he was already shaky with in the high minors.  Why introduce failure/ adversity into the mix when he is excelling/ growing in his current role.

Let the dude be badass closer, it clearly suits him.  Relievers are only gaining in value as starters go less.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Love the premise of this piece, but I think the answer is no. I think Duran is in the bullpen to stay.

However, I could see them trying Jax in the rotation.  From 2017 to 2021 he made 50 appearances, with 49 of those as a starter.  He had solid numbers as a starter:

286IP, 3.23 ERA, 1.17WHIP, 0.44HR/9, 8.5H/9, 6.8K/9, 2.0BB/9.

His K/9 numbers jumped up over 9K/9 after moving to the pen, which is what you expect for a starter moving to the pen. But I think he had already taken a leap forward during the missed COVID season of 2020, because he was striking out 8K/9 in 2021, still as a starter.  

Right now Varland is penciled in to the rotation as the #5 guy, but why not give Jax a shot?

[UK Twin]

As much as trying him as a SP intrigues me, I don't think we can afford to remove him from the closer role right now. He's too good in that role to be moved and we don't have anyone in the bullpen that I would completely trust to take over the role full time. 

[AlwaysinModeration]

Compare to Duran’s 2017-2021 years:

62 starts in 63 appearances, 294IP, 4.04ERA, 1.28WHIP, 0.64HR/9, 8.1H/9, 9.9K/9, 3.4BB/9.

And post-COVID, Duran had the same jump in K rate, jumping up to 12K/9 (as a starter) and then maintaining 11+K/9 after moving to relief.

[wabene]

When Duran moved to reliever he was quoted as saying he was enjoying it because he was always walking around sore in-between starts. He said his body just felt better as a reliever. I'm sure there are many rea$on$ he has considered starting since that early transitional period when quoted, but he also has grown into and accepted his role as reliever. It's gotta be a rush to come out to all that fiery fanfare with the game on the line. Also last season he had some minor struggles, but worked through them well culminating with a clutch performance in the playoffs. His role has been cemented. He had promise as a starter, but never delivered and was hurt so often he was only able to pitch about 16 innings in his final year in that role. 

Good team building doesn't include weakening one area to improve another. Do the Twins have the success they had last season without Duran as their top reliever?  Hard pass for me. 

[Doctor Wu]

An interesting idea, and I certainly understand both sides of the issue, and as a result, well, I'm sitting on the fence!

Of course it's a VERY tantalizing idea of converting/switching Duran back to a starters role. We don't see arms like his very often. And what's the worse that can happen? He struggles and ends up back in the bullpen, or naturally another injury is a concern. But it could end up being a John Smoltz sort of situation; great starter becomes a great relief pitcher, and then returns to being a starter. But, all that said and done, I'd be shocked if the Twins  try and let him start some games. He's a weapon in the bullpen and I think that's where he'll stay.