Another Bad Break: Alex Kirilloff Set for Shoulder Surgery

[Nick Nelson]

AK cannot catch a break. For the fourth time in his young career, he is looking at a serious arm-related surgery and recovery. The road ahead will be a difficult one.

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

In his season-ending presser on Friday, Derek Falvey revealed that first baseman Alex Kirilloff will undergo labrum surgery on his right shoulder later this month. 

The procedure is scheduled for October 24th, with the team indicating that they won't know the extent of the labrum tear until then. There's a wide range of outcomes at play, but we can safely say this is very unfortunate news.

It's not necessarily surprising news, after the developments we saw play out this week. Kirilloff was removed from the ALDS roster following Game 3, replaced on Wednesday by a barely-mobile Byron Buxton. 

According to Rocco Baldelli, Kirilloff was still bothered by a shoulder injury suffered midseason, which caused him to miss all of August. Though he battled through it and looked solid in September, Kirilloff came up empty offensively and made a crucial error in the playoffs.

According to Baldelli, the shoulder had "just progressively been getting worse to the point where he really can't swing at this point.”

Now, Kirilloff is billed for labrum surgery, which is a serious procedure almost under any condition. There are many examples of players who have undergone labrum surgery and ultimately missed considerable lengths of time. 

That list includes Game 4 home run hitter Michael Brantley, who played only 15 regular-season games for Houston this year after undergoing surgery for a torn right shoulder labrum in August of 2022. 

A recently published study on MLB players following arthroscopic shoulder labral repair concluded that: 

"Following arthroscopic shoulder labral surgery, most MLB pitchers and positional players were able to [return to play] successfully but experienced shorter careers thereafter. These players also experienced declines in game utilization and performance one season after surgery but were able to return to baseline at 3 seasons after surgery."

This isn't meant to cast conclusions, but simply to provide context. For what it's worth, the Twins expressed optimism he'll be ready for next spring, although there's really no way to know at this point.

One way or another, Kirilloff has a(nother) long road ahead of him, and it's impossible not to feel for the guy. In the long-running saga of Twins top prospects plagued by astoundingly endless injuries, he might be the banner example.

In 2016, his very first professional season, Kirilloff suffered a partial UCL tear in his elbow. He tried to avoid surgery through a PRP-and-rehab plan, but it didn't work out. He underwent Tommy John surgery the next spring and missed all of the 2017 season.

Kirilloff came back and re-emerged as a top prospect. Even the lost COVID season could hardly slow him down, as Kirilloff was called up for an elimination game in the playoffs against Houston.

His star was shining bright heading into 2021, but sadly Kirilloff's physical battles were only about to begin. He suffered a torn ligament in his right wrist that required season-ending surgery. Kirilloff returned in 2022 but the surgery proved insufficient as the wrist pain persisted. He underwent a more invasive ulnar shortening surgery and commenced in a lengthy rehab. This was considered essentially a last-ditch effort to fix his wrist.

And this season, it seemed to be working. Kirilloff took it fairly slow but made it back, and looked at times like the elite-level left-handed masher that we know is within him. But now, a new very serious injury has popped up and once again completely derailed his career. To watch this same thing play out with him and Royce Lewis in such close succession (while Buxton's career is also threatened by physical breakdowns at age 29) is surreal and gut-wrenching.

Alas, there's nothing to do but soldier on. Lewis at least presents an aspirational prototype for what it can look like to bounce back from unthinkable injury adversity and thrive. Kirilloff, despite all he's gone through, is still only 25. There's a path forward and AK's resilience up to this point gives cause for optimism. 

The Twins front office, however, has a tough task ahead in setting a vision for first base. We're all hoping for the best for Kirilloff, but by now, the club has no choice but to plan for the worst.

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[USNMCPO]

Oh crap they are going too resign Gallo, aren't they?

[h2oface]

My heart goes out to Kirilloff. Well wishes for a quick re-hab and healing. 

As for team management - what was he doing on the roster in the playoffs? Did they not know he was hurt? 

[jorgenswest]

Julien at 1B has to be the plan next year.

[CRF]

They couldn't possibly be thinking Gallo...could they? Maybe the Hiroshima Toyo Carp will swim right in and sign Joey-Boy before Falvine gets any crazy ideas. 

[Mike Sixel]

Julien, Severino, and Prato should all be practicing at first base full time right now. 

Good luck to him. This is a bummer for him.

[jorgenswest]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Julien, Severino, and Prato should all be practicing at first base full time right now. 

Larnach and Wallner also?

[roger]

How sad.  Guess this tells us why AK didn't seem like his normal self late this season and in the playoffs.  Let's pray that his injury is on the less severe scale and he is back by either spring training or early summer.

Get well young man, you are due for some good news.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, jorgenswest said:

Larnach and Wallner also?

Wallner isn't a bad OF, but sure. I don't know what to do with Larnach and his health issues. 

[Unwinder]

I think Miranda might be healed and potentially good again by next year. No idea how much HIS shoulder issue impacted his performance this year.

[Mike Sixel]

14 minutes ago, Unwinder said:

I think Miranda might be healed and potentially good again by next year. No idea how much HIS shoulder issue impacted his performance this year.

good point, he should 100% be practicing at first base right now. If he's healthy, and playing first, I think that is a good thing.

[DocBauer]

Just awful news. Poor kid has been through so much already. I guess the silver lining is he's still young, and has been through this type of thing before so he hopefully has the resolve to not get too down, and to come through the other side. 

For a month or so, middlemof the summer, we got to see his potentially starting to be fulfilled. Probably the Twins best hitter in that time frame. Just really have to hope it's not top bad, and he is truly ready for ST and the start or the season, or only slightly delayed.

It does beg the question though, doesn't it, as to whether the Twins need to make a move at 1B? I mean, sure, Julien is obviously a candidate. So might be a healthy Miranda. Possibly Severino, but I think he's more of a later on the season option.

Could a move for a veteran hitter at 1B be a smart play? Especially if he has decent contact ability?

[RpR]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

Julien at 1B has to be the plan next year.

😂 Dear Lord, NO.🤢

[CRF]

1 hour ago, Unwinder said:

I think Miranda might be healed and potentially good again by next year. No idea how much HIS shoulder issue impacted his performance this year.

Yeah...I think everybody kind of forgot about Miranda. This could open the door a bit for him...if he's even healthy. 

[Nashvilletwin]

Wondering why they waited until late October when it was pretty obvious in August that surgery was going to be the necessary course of action. We will know more later, but it sounds as if those two months might be quite valuable if the goal is to be ready by or near opening day. 

[silverslugger]

Really, really rough break here for the young man.  Who was our minor league TD hitter of the year?  What position does he play?

[Schmoeman5]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Wallner isn't a bad OF, but sure. I don't know what to do with Larnach and his health issues. 

Which health issues are those?

[DocBauer]

Hate bouncing between similar threads, but Unwinder is correct that a healthy and rebounding Miranda might be an option at 1B. Now, there's a big IF there, but I don't want to dismiss a kid who has talent, exploded in 2021, and was damn good for a chunk of his rookie season. He was still rough at 1B, but seemed to get better as he gained time there. 

And I do think Julien will be part of that discussion, and I'm OK with that. The kid went from very questionable at 2B to looking pretty solid there as the season went on.

I also, repeating myself from another thread, think Polanco is an option there, at least part of the time. It would keep his bat in play and let him rest his knees a little bit more than the other INF spots I see him playing in 2024. (I think he plays all over). 

But I still wonder if it might provide an opportunity to add a 1B who can provide power and at least decent defense who might HIT a bit better than some guys in the lineup, and K around 20-25% instead of 30 plus. WAY too early to speculate who or how, I'm just saying that next to Gray, or replacing Gray, the next best opportunity might be to add a 1B, even on a 1yr deal, to add to the lineup in case AK doesn't come back, or takes a long time to come back, or until another young player like Julien, or perhaps Severino, or a rebounding Miranda, steps forward to claim the spot.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

5 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Larnach and Wallner also?

And Buxton?

super disappointed and feel bad for AK, hope he recovers well and soon. 

[Karbo]

They sure seem to be cursed with players that have chronic injuries. I hope Lewis is over the hump and can stay healthy. Buxton is broken and seems to be breaking more all the time. I would encourage both Julian and Miranda to play some winter ball at 1st base!

[jmlease1]

Tough break for Kirilloff. Every time it looks like he's taking a step forward something else gets him. I was so happy that it looked like they had finally solved his wrist issue, so it's a bummer to have a shoulder problem take him down again. I still believe in his bat and was really hoping to see him as the starting 1B from Day 1 next year.

The good thing for the Twins is they should have options. Seems increasingly likely that Polanco is back next year and Julien gets the shift over to 1B (give Julien a whole offseason to prepare for 1B duty and I expect he'll do fine). Miranda could be an option if he's healthy and his RH bat could protect Julien from too many tough matchups against LHP.

Depth was hugely important to the 2023 Twins and I think they will be looking to match that again next season. It will be interesting to see how much of that comes from within or if they look for reinforcements in free agency.

(I have zero fear that Gallo will be back.)

[HrbieFan]

16 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Julien at 1B has to be the plan next year.

And removes any question about picking up Polanco's option. Maybe Larnach needs to grab a 1B glove 

[Whitey333]

Buxton?  Who's he?  If he's as beat up as he has been for 8 years.  Yes 8 years all we hear is how great Buxton is.  Or wait until next year when he is healthy.  When will that be?  He's always hurt and Is just a mirage compared to his hype.  I'm sorry but it's time to move on from Buxton.  I know he has a no trade clause but we are better off without him.  He actually is hampering the team.

[roger]

12 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Hate bouncing between similar threads, but Unwinder is correct that a healthy and rebounding Miranda might be an option at 1B. Now, there's a big IF there, but I don't want to dismiss a kid who has talent, exploded in 2021, and was damn good for a chunk of his rookie season. He was still rough at 1B, but seemed to get better as he gained time there. 

And I do think Julien will be part of that discussion, and I'm OK with that. The kid went from very questionable at 2B to looking pretty solid there as the season went on.

I also, repeating myself from another thread, think Polanco is an option there, at least part of the time. It would keep his bat in play and let him rest his knees a little bit more than the other INF spots I see him playing in 2024. (I think he plays all over). 

But I still wonder if it might provide an opportunity to add a 1B who can provide power and at least decent defense who might HIT a bit better than some guys in the lineup, and K around 20-25% instead of 30 plus. WAY too early to speculate who or how, I'm just saying that next to Gray, or replacing Gray, the next best opportunity might be to add a 1B, even on a 1yr deal, to add to the lineup in case AK doesn't come back, or takes a long time to come back, or until another young player like Julien, or perhaps Severino, or a rebounding Miranda, steps forward to claim the spot.

The good news is that the Twins should have a good idea about the timetable for AK's return soon after surgery  which is scheduled for the week after next.  By the time the Series is over and they start talking to potential free agents they should have a good idea whether AK will return by spring training?  Or by the start of the season?  Or when?

[darin617]

How did he hurt his right shoulder? Wouldn't it be a bigger issue if it was his left shoulder since he hits and throws left?

1st base and center are to 2 positions that the Twins need to worry about this winter.  

[Five minute major]

Tony Oliva, Kirby Pucket, Corey Koskie, Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, Francisco Liriano, Byron Buxton, Alex Kiriloff,  Royce Lewis and I'm probably forgetting some others. 

Name another franchise in professional  sports to have so many very good to elite level players have their careers ended or completely altered due to catastrophic injury.   It is beyond disheartening.   

 

[Johnny Ringo]

To paraphrase Jay McInerney, AK is the party guest that is always on his way but never arrives. 

If the FO were to ask my opinion (I am planning my day assuming they won't), I would do the following in the off-season (assuming the budget at best is not going down):

--Exercise the Kepler and Polanco options and trade them both. Let Maeda walk. Retain Castro; 

--Plan that Lewis, Martin or Lee is my CF. One of these three plays third;

--Sign a prototypical big-bobbing RH first baseman. Kirilloff is a pedestrian fielder and an uninspiring power source; 

--Populate the corner OF spots with  Wallner, Larnach, Rodriguez or AK;

--Assuming Gray is not re-signed, the 1B signing is payroll neutral. 

--This gives you $20 million to sign a SP (coming from the Kepler, Polanco savings). 

 I would attempt to re-up Sonny but with that money and this team, lots of people would suddenly care.

That looks pretty solid to me. Lets play ball. 

 

 

[Kummel]

When Kiriloff was healthy this summer, he was a great player, a favorite to watch.   So sorry to see this news -- it was evident for quite  a while now that he was injured - he looked like a different player, lost that beautiful swing.   Maybe he should have had surgery weeks ago?  Regardless, such a shame.  I wish him all the best.

[Twins GFP]

With Kiriloff's ability to play the outfield, 1B was always a position the Twins could go after for offensive improvement.  This just justifies it even more...

[Heezy1323]

20 hours ago, darin617 said:

How did he hurt his right shoulder? Wouldn't it be a bigger issue if it was his left shoulder since he hits and throws left?

1st base and center are to 2 positions that the Twins need to worry about this winter.  

If you had to choose, you would likely choose the non-throwing shoulder (obviously). But an injury to the front shoulder of a hitter is also not ideal, depending on the part of the labrum that has an injury. There is more flexibility required of the front shoulder when swinging and this type of surgery can sometimes alter the flexibility- hopefully temporarily until rehab is complete.