Did the Twins Mishandle Bailey Ober in 2023?

[Cody Christie]

Bailey Ober has been sent down to Triple-A two times this year, and now he is shut down while the Twins are playing some of the team's most important games. So, did the Twins mishandle Ober this season?

Image courtesy of David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Twins manager Rocco Baldelli was clear with Bailey Ober as spring training began. He was the sixth arm in the starting rotation and was only making the Opening Day roster if one of the arms in front of him was not ready. The Twins had been plagued by injuries in 2022, so it seemed likely for the injury bug to bite one of the starters. However, that wouldn't be the case. Ober pitched well in the spring by allowing three earned runs on four hits with a 0.70 WHIP and batters posting a .121 BA. On the depth chart, there were veterans ahead of him, so the Twins sent him to Triple-A. 

Ober said all the appropriate things when he was demoted, but it had to be frustrating for a pitcher with a proven track record at the big-league level. From 2021-22, he posted a 3.82 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and a 147-to-30 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 148 1/3 innings. Injuries had been the biggest hindrance to Ober's performance, as he had never pitched more than 108 innings in any professional season. The Twins needed to monitor Ober's innings, especially if he stayed healthy for the entire season. 

Ober's time with the Saints got off to a poor start. In his first two starts, he didn't make it out of the fourth inning and allowed five earned runs in 6 2/3 innings. Mentally, the demotion had to impacted his performance, but he turned it around from there. Over his next two starts, he pitched 11 shutout innings while limiting batters to five hits and striking out 12. Tyler Mahle suffered a season-ending injury at the big-league level, and Ober was the next man up. 

After the call-up, Ober became one of the team's most consistent and effective starting pitchers. In his first 16 starts (94 2/3 IP), he posted a 2.76 ERA with a 90-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Batters hit .215/.262/.366 (.628) against him, and it looked like Ober was lining up to be one of the team's starting pitchers in October. Unfortunately, Ober hit a wall as the calendar turned to August while he also passed a new career-high in innings pitched. 

Over his subsequent six appearances, Ober's performance struggled mightily. He allowed 21 earned runs in 28 innings with opponents hitting .328/.377/.588 (.965) against him, including eight home runs. The Twins decided it was time for Ober to get a breather, and the only way to make that happen was to demote him to Triple-A for the second time. 

"Bailey is as professional a young man as you're ever going to find in this game," Baldelli said. "The way he conducts himself every day of his life is very impressive, and I've had several conversations with him over the last couple of years that were not easy. Today was not an easy conversation, but I think long term, this setup, this move that we're making right now, is going to benefit him."

Throughout the season's second half, the Twins had talked about finding subtle ways to limit Ober's innings. Some options included using piggybacking, a six-man rotation, or skipping starts to push back his spot in the order. During the 2021 season, he pitched 108 1/3 innings, a career high. Previously, he had never surpassed 80 innings in any of his seven professional seasons. Between Triple-A and the Majors, he has combined for 140 1/3 innings while also staying relatively healthy. He might be out of gas, but it's a critical time of the year to miss one of the team's best starters. 

Seeing how the Twins handle Ober for the season's remaining games will be interesting. He will get a few extra days to rest before he starts throwing again for the Saints. It also remains to be seen if the team will continue to use him as a starter. Minnesota already transitioned Louie Varland from a starter to a relief role for the stretch run, but Ober might not be the best candidate to move to the bullpen. The best strategy might be to give him shorter starts with someone ready to piggyback him so he can stay stretched out. 

Ober has proven himself at the big-league level and is part of the team's long-term plan for the starting rotation. It's tough not to think he's gotten the short end of the stick on multiple occasions this year. The team demoted him two times even though he had a proven track record at the big-league level. Also, the club talked about limiting his innings during the year, but that never came to fruition. Instead, he finds himself at Triple-A while the Twins fight for the division title. 

Perhaps the Twins followed the appropriate strategy with Ober by running him out there regularly until his performance started to suffer. However, the optics of the entire situation are not great from Ober's point of view. He lost service time at both ends of the season because of decisions made by the front office. The team will stress that it is the best thing for his health, but there were other ways to handle him during the season so he could be part of the team for the stretch run. 

Do you feel the Twins have handled Ober appropriately this season? Should veterans be treated differently by the front office? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[bloomwcjkl]

I miss Bert Blyleven who could pitch 300 innings and anything but a complete game was a dissapointment.

If a pitcher can't hold up, what can a team or manager do?

If a pitcher isn't hurt but their velocity is down and they are struggling what can a team or manager do?

It isn't like he pitched 200 innings from 100 last year.

[tony&rodney]

Ober was still pitching ok when the Twins decided to send him to St. Paul. Bailey was clearly not as sharp however and even if he felt good the pitches were beginning to miss by just enough to be a concern. 

I'm not sure why Ober wasn't put on the IL with "tired arm", but it was likely a decision based on not wanting Ober off the team for 15 days as opposed to available as needed from the Saints roster.

Ober likely gets one start in St. Paul before he is called back. I'm thinking Ober starts a playoff game if the Twins advance beyond the first round with Maeda ready in relief. There are still 22 games left in the season. Plenty of action to go.

The Twins made fair decisions even if it might stink that Ober misses some MLB roster days.

[Linus]

You say there were other ways to handle him but don’t say what those other ways were. They needed him taking a regular turn to try and win the division.  I’m pretty critical of the FO but don’t really any mishandling here. They had a good rotation all season long and Bailey got thru an entire season without injury. Sounds like a pretty good outcome to me. 

[DJL44]

As far as getting maximum production out of Ober I think they've handled him well. He's pitched great this season. They will be counting on him again next season.

[tborg]

For every Bert Blyleven there was an Eddie Bane, a Mark Fidrych, and numerous other more obscure pitchers who lost effectiveness due to overuse.  There is a reason modern day FO manage their pitchers carefully.  As this article points out, it remains a challenge to figure out the best way to do this for each pitcher and situation.  The option of pulling a successful pitcher early in the game to limit innings is obviously not popular.  I am surprised that the 6 man rotation never came to fruition, but there are reasons for that too (room for fewer relievers, pitchers preference for more regular work, etc.)

[wabene]

It isn't mentioned that he was the 6th starter out of camp only because he was the only one with options, so while too bad for Bailey, that is a no-brainer. We saw last year how short starts are not good, lol. I don't see how they could've managed him any differently. In fact when he was going well and was pulled with about 80 pitches there were complaints. I would say the front office has done really well with their pitchers with injury histories. Duran pitched 16 innings 2 years ago and they get him through 2 full seasons healthy. Ober has been hurt year after year yet they got quite a bit from him this year with maybe more to come. If anything they could've shut him down earlier. There only thing I'm not clear on is why he got sent down instead of going on the IL. 

[IaBeanCounter]

"Unfortunately, Ober hit a wall as the calendar turned to August while he also passed a new career-high in innings pitched.  Over his subsequent six appearances, Ober's performance struggled mightily. He allowed 21 earned runs in 28 innings with opponents hitting .328/.377/.588 (.965) against him, including eight home runs. "

"Ober has proven himself at the big-league level and is part of the team's long-term plan for the starting rotation. It's tough not to think he's gotten the short end of the stick on multiple occasions this year."

These statements appear to be contradictory.  Ober needed a rest and he had options (and had already been optioned), so IMHO the FO was correct in sending him to STP.  I also believe that optioning him was better than putting him on the IL.  I believe a player can be recalled after 10 days, while the IL requires 15 days.  He is currently eligible to return from STP.

 

Edit:  I believe he will be recalled if DK doesn't pitch well Friday.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Really good article. The Twins will need Ober in 2024 and while I'm sure Ober would prefer to be with his buddies and contributing more as the season rushes to a conclusion, with the playoffs looming, the FO has made the correct moves for the team and frankly, for Baily Ober's career. Now, was anyone else concerned when Joe Ryan went back out to pitch yesterday after an hour rain delay? How does that affect his arm? I'm not sure I would have sent him back out, especially since the Twins have an off day today and the relievers are pretty fresh anyway.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Given his injury history, I would say the Twins were quite successful this year by getting him mostly all the way through a season injury free.  He is certainly a building block for the future.  Even thought they obviously could, it is a little weird that they sent him down instead of putting him on the IL, but maybe they wanted to buy a little time with making a decision of whether he could be used in relief in the playoffs, which is easier to do in St. Paul.  The service time issue I'm sure doesn't make him happy, but it really only matters if he is on the edge of the cutoff point for arbitration/free agency.  I don't know his exact situation, but odds are he will blow by it by 1/2 a season and it won't matter.  He is also the type of player that the Twins could sign to a long-term deal before that becomes an issue. 

[DJL44]

27 minutes ago, tborg said:

I am surprised that the 6 man rotation never came to fruition

I'm not. There aren't that many pitchers who can successfully pitch 5 innings in the big leagues. If you go to a 6 man rotation on the Twins you're giving innings to someone like Headrick instead of Sonny Gray.

There are a lot more pitchers who can get through 1 inning than can get through 6 innings.

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

He is also the type of player that the Twins could sign to a long-term deal before that becomes an issue. 

The Twins control Ober until the end of 2027, at which point he will be 32 years old. There is very little incentive to give him a long-term contract.

[Cris E]

The team is already rotating a lot of starters through the IL, some for real injuries (Buxton, Lewis, Kirilloff) but some for little things or short vacations (Taylor, Castro, Ryan) and I would expect Ober's AAA stint to fill the same role while leaving them some flexibility in case a real problem arises. Correa should be the only one shocked if he gets a short vacation before October too.

[Althebum82]

He has shown that when healthy, he has the promise of a long MLB career.  The Twins did what they felt they had to do to get a return on their other starting pitcher investments and balance his contribution as well.  It was an unorthodox, but logical approach.  The hope is that it will pay off in a brighter future for both him and the team over time.  I'm okay with that.

By the way, the only way he can pitch for the Twins in October is with league approval due to the injury of a September 1 roster player, correct?

[stringer bell]

8 minutes ago, Althebum82 said:

 

By the way, the only way he can pitch for the Twins in October is with league approval due to the injury of a September 1 roster player, correct?

I don't think so. He has remained on the 40-man roster, so he should be good to go on a post-season roster. 

In regard to the OP, I don't think Ober was mishandled. The one thing is that he has been denied Major League service time when he has been deserving of being on the roster for the entire season, but since he has a minor league option and other starters did not, he has logged some minor league time. It won't change his arbitration eligibility or when he becomes a free agent.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

31 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I'm not. There aren't that many pitchers who can successfully pitch 5 innings in the big leagues. If you go to a 6 man rotation on the Twins you're giving innings to someone like Headrick instead of Sonny Gray.

There are a lot more pitchers who can get through 1 inning than can get through 6 innings.

Agreed, but realistically it would have been Gray, Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Varland, Kuechel. It would have been giving regular season innings to Varland (and not rostering both Sands and Winder) reducing regular season innings to Gray/Lopez/Ryan in order for Gray/Lopez/Ryan to have more gas in the tank for the post season.

Considering the Twins aren’t just walking away with the division right now, and it’s still a slight possibility that Cleveland catches up, not diluting the rotation and not putting more stress on the bullpen was the right call.

I agree with your point, but the discussion is a bit more nuanced

[Patzky]

2 hours ago, Linus said:

You say there were other ways to handle him but don’t say what those other ways were. They needed him taking a regular turn to try and win the division.  I’m pretty critical of the FO but don’t really any mishandling here. They had a good rotation all season long and Bailey got thru an entire season without injury. Sounds like a pretty good outcome to me. 

Seems the author wasn't happy he started off the season in AAA and then wasn't happy he got sent back down after being effective in August.  There were valid reasons for both decisions. I hope we see him in some capacity toward the end of September.

Edited September 7, 2023 by Patzky
Misspelled

[nicksaviking]

If Ober only had 120 innings in him, I'm not sure why it matters that they came at the end of the year instead of the beginning.

They needed him at the beginning of the year and are holding up fine without him now, so I'd say they played it correctly.

[mikelink45]

I would have used the IL - 10 day.  Rest him.  Another start in St Paul is still putting more strain on his arm.  Give him vacation, let him get service time and then start him with the Twins.

[PDX Twin]

Games in June count the same as games in September! And he contributed to a lot of them. I'm not at all worried if he is not the best choice right now. We would be ~tied with Cleveland if he had not given us what he did earlier.

[Morland]

I'm sure he'll be back and that they'll limit his innings/pitches and combine him with Varland or Winder so that he'll (hopefully) be ready for the post season.

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

22 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

You cannot compare Ober to Blyleven as back then he was throwing like 85mph FB's not the 95mph that is required of most starters today.  The extra velocity puts additional stress on the body and limits the number of innings that these guys can pitch.

Agreed, different era. Also to add, comparing the 6th starter of this team to a Hall of Fame starting pitcher isn’t fair or helpful.

I mean Bert’s in the Hall of Fame because he’s one of the best pitchers to ever play. We may never see another like him and those of us who got to watch him pitch should feel lucky we got the opportunity, not ask why the 6th starter can’t throw as many innings.

[TwinsDr2021]

Of course they did, everybody knew he would be on a innings limit and they wasted 17 of those in the minors.  Those were 17 innings that could have been used in the majors. So was it a disaster like Gallo and Buxton? no, but it was mishandled.

[Craig Arko]

I fully expect to see him back with the club before the end of the season. Quite possibly in a bullpen role, next to Varland.

[cgreuling]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

You cannot compare Ober to Blyleven as back then he was throwing like 85mph FB's not the 95mph that is required of most starters today.  The extra velocity puts additional stress on the body and limits the number of innings that these guys can pitch.

Bert probably made like $25-50K per season during some of his prime years, the team(s) didn't have as much financially invested in its roster and, unfortunately, didn't care if their arm fell off at some point. 

[Road trip]

I guess I am also under the "moderately mishandled camp".  Innings thrown at AAA this year are wasted innings.  He's clearly an MLB caliber pitcher, and that was already apparent in 2022.  If there is no room in the rotation utilize him in the pen, as was done very successfully in the early years of Johan Santana.

At some point, someday, the Twins will need Ober to be a 160-190 IP starter, which is kind of the current standard for the top 3 guys in the rotation (and yes, Ober has enough "stuff" to be a solid #3 starter).

I just don't know how he ever gets there at this rate.  Ober fought a few injuries, but I believe only one to his arm (is this wrong?  I think just an elbow injury way back in 2019).  The lack of a minor league season in 2020 hurt his development, though I doubt the Twins would have let him throw more than about the 108 innings he got in 2021.  2022, still on an innings limit.  2023, more of the same.

I get it.  Health is a priority.  I don't understand fully though why Ober isn't able to build up enough endurance/strength to get to the 175 inning mark.  He's 27 years old, at his athletic peak.  He has a huge frame, ideal for starting pitchers.  Maybe next year will be the year.  I fear though that we will be having this same discussion again about "need to limit Ober's innings" in August of 2024.  Maybe it is just all he can do.  Perhaps I should be satisfied with the good pitching he brings, even if it will be limited to about 25 starts a year.

[Dave Borton]

5 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

 

I'm not sure why Ober wasn't put on the IL with "tired arm", but it was likely a decision based on not wanting Ober off the team for 15 days as opposed to available as needed from the Saints roster.

 

Odd move indeed. He has been down 12 days and hasn't thrown the first pitch.

[Shaitan]

Did I miss the official report that he's been "shut down"? (I mean, this article title suggests that 2023 is over and it certainly wouldn't be just a clickbait headline.)

And in response to several other posters, the reason he was not put on IL is because is not injured. You can't just make up injuries, even if it seems that way to us sometimes.

[wabene]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Of course they did, everybody knew he would be on a innings limit and they wasted 17 of those in the minors.  Those were 17 innings that could have been used in the majors. So was it a disaster like Gallo and Buxton? no, but it was mishandled.

He was the only one with options. How would you have handled that? 

[IaBeanCounter]

3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I would have used the IL - 10 day.  Rest him.  Another start in St Paul is still putting more strain on his arm.  Give him vacation, let him get service time and then start him with the Twins.

Positions players have a 10 day IL, pitchers have a 15 day IL.