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FanGraphs projects the Twins to have more than a 95% chance to win the AL Central with only weeks remaining in the season. Last year, Minnesota fell apart in September and saw Cleveland take the AL Central title. It seems unlikely that will happen again in 2023, but Minnesota sports fans have suffered enough heartbreak to know anything is possible. The team has suffered a record 18-straight playoff losses, but this team has the frontline starting pitching to help a team win in October.
Before laying out the rotation, it’s important to note that a lot can happen in the season’s final weeks. That’s one of the reasons the Twins are considering shifting to a six-man rotation as Joe Ryan returns from the IL. This shift allows the team to give starters more rest during the stretch run and to set up the rotation for better success in the playoffs. If the postseason started today, here’s how the Twins would ideally set up their starting rotation.
Game 1 Starter: Pablo Lopez
Lopez was the Twins’ Opening Day starter and was a first-time All-Star this season. His performance has had some ups and downs throughout the season, but he’s been one of the team’s best starters since the All-Star break. In his last seven starts (42 IP), he has posted a 2.14 ERA with a 46-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Lopez pitched a career-high 180 innings during the 2022 season, but there were signs of him tiring down the stretch. The Twins will look to avoid that problem this season, with him already approaching 160 innings.
Game 2 Starter: Sonny Gray
Like Lopez, Gray was an All-Star and the team’s best-starting pitcher in the first half. He posted a 2.89 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and 101 strikeouts in just under 100 innings pitched before the All-Star break. In July, Gray seemed to tire, with his ERA rising to 4.85 with a 7.9 K/9. He turned it back around in August with a 2.81 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP in his first four appearances. For the playoffs, the Twins must monitor how Gray is utilized. He has struggled when facing a line-up for the third time, so the team might need to limit his appearance to five innings or less.
Game 3 Starter: Kenta Maeda
Entering the season, few would have predicted that Maeda would be lining up to start a playoff game for the Twins. He is in his first full season since undergoing Tommy John surgery and started the season at the back of the team’s rotation. Earlier in the season, Maeda missed time with a right forearm strain, which made his recent performance even more improbable. Over the last 11 games, he has posted a 2.91 ERA while holding opponents to a .654 OPS. His recent performance should stack up nicely compared to other team’s number three starters.
Game 4 Starter*: Bailey Ober
MLB’s playoff structure means the Twins only need three starters for the opening-round Wild Card series. Things can get a little more intriguing if the Twins win a playoff series for the first time since 2002. Ober has been one of the team’s most consistent starting pitchers, but he has already pitched a career-high in innings. If he tires down the stretch, the Twins will need to move a different starter into the playoff rotation, and there are a few options on the table.
Other Options: Joe Ryan, Dallas Keuchel, Louie Varland
Joe Ryan was a borderline All-Star in the first half and would have easily made the team’s postseason rotation. He became home run prone while hiding a groin injury, so the Twins hope his performance will improve as he returns from the IL. Twins fans might be slightly scared about the possibility of Keuchel starting a playoff game in October. For him to get a postseason start, there would need to be multiple injuries or poor performance from those ahead of Keuchel on the team’s depth chart. Varland hasn’t started a big-league game since the middle of June, but he still figures into the team’s long-term plans. It’s also possible for some of these starters to move to a bullpen role over the season’s final weeks.
What will change with the rotation in the season’s final weeks? How would you line up the team’s starters for October? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.







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